Sunday 3:15 AM

The double run will be worth more than 12 after cuts of 2,3 or 4 (7/46). 9-3-3-3 starts with 12 and has 8/46 cuts (3,6666,999) that increase it.

Sunday 3:28 AM

This hand starts with 12 points and has 8 cuts that bring the value of the hand to 16, 20, or 24 points as James points out. Expected averages is more than one point (combined avg. hand and crib) that tossing 3-9 to crib.

Sunday 3:44 AM

Four of a kind twenty four possible. dec

Sunday 4:18 AM

Deceptive. Keeping the three 3's gives a higher point expectation. But that expectation is inflated with the turning up of the fourth 3. Without that lucky cut throwing 2-4 into the crib does not look very attractive. Given the the number of 3's and a 9 left in hand. Delta etc.

Sunday 4:29 AM

Most Cuts give us the Dozen Points back, while a few may give us a Double Double, so we should end up with both a similar average in Hand and Crib (due to significant Negative Delta in either case).

But after retaining the Double RUN, I do like our prospects for PEGGING a bit better. Still, it's six o' one, half dozen of the other today ... all multiplied by two, and then some (gets added) if we're lucky. And we're always lucky!

Sunday 6:02 AM

This should be better from hand score plus pegging plus crib value

Sunday 6:25 AM

Close call. What swayed me was the better pegging prospect of 2334. But 39 in the crib no better than 24 because of the negative delta.

Sunday 6:25 AM

Close call. What swayed me was the better pegging prospect of 2334. But 39 in the crib no better than 24 because of the negative delta.

Sunday 7:34 AM

Another gut reaction. I suppose it doesnt really matter because its 12 either way. Another pregnant 3s puzzle. I like 2334 because its a better pegger.

The other things to consider are tossing the 24 will probably get no help considering 333 in the hand, and 39 are both odd cards and you cannot get a 15 without an odd card. Perhaps the pone will toss me a 2 or a 6.

Sunday 12:59 PM

I kept it this way for the better offensive pegging. Actually, I should have tossed myself the suited 3. Oups! On defense or optimal, I’d just keep the straight 12 starting points with its resulting escape card. But here we need all the pegging we can get.

After the cut we have 13 known points. We still have a long way to go. Continuing to peg offensively to the lead, and making the count (14) on any X-card lead.

Sunday 3:01 PM

I think it must be between 3-3-3-9 (2-4) and 2-3-3-4 (3-9):

3-3-3-9: 12pts + 4½pts (Schell; 4.52) = 16½pts

2-3-3-4: 8pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.78) = 11¾pts

Potential:

3-3-3-9: Improves with 3, 6666, 999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 14/20/24 with all cuts.

2-3-3-4: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 12/16/17pts with 222, 3, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 999 +16xXs = 38 cuts.

Pegging:

Playing Offense 2-3-3-4 should definitely peg better.

Position:

At 14pts we need 30pts in two deals to reach positional hole of 44pts for our next deal. This is 4pts above the average of 26pts so I'll play Offense.

Summary:

3-3-3-9 is 4¾pts better for starting value but 2-3-3-4 has guaranteed improvement and 38 cuts for 12-17pts. The maximum for 3-3-3-9 has a better maximum though with 4 cuts for 20/24pts. Both discards will suffer considerable negative delta and 2-3-3-4 should peg better. So will 2-3-3-4 catch up the 4¾pts? I think it will so I'll throw 3S-9S.

Sunday 4:01 PM

At 14*-24 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W7 %____W8 %
2-3-3-4*__12.28+3.76+3.13=19.17____15.0____31.6
3-3-3-9___13.13+2.35+3.45=18.93____15.9____33.9

Offense_______L7 %____L8 %
2-3-3-4*______22.4____40.9
3-3-3-9_______19.1____36.4

* suited 3-9

2-3-3-4 is 0.24pt better for expected averages but 3-3-3-9 is appreciably better for Win %s and Loss %s. As its very early in the game I'll place most weight on the expected averages and select 3S-9S to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.

Sunday 9:27 PM

The double run of 8 points is superior to the dozen with 3-3-3-9.See Coeurdelion's work above (8 cuts are of benefit to 3-3-3-9 and 46 cuts benefit the 2-3-3-4. That's a huge difference and choosing off., off., off. there is a big edge to pegging with the double run. Play on the lead and take any pegs offered.