June 22, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
71*-84  ?
36%
29%
28%
2%
2%
0%
Total votes: 143
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:06 AM
If I discard J-5 do I still have a chance at a hand that could produce twelve? May have to play into a chance to get some pegging points now. dec
dec says: two chances for twelve. dec
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 3:29 AM
I'd like the 5 card in my crib.
Very fortunate with the cut.
Guest says: Kilroy was in your neighborhood yesterday
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Friday 3:33 AM
I like tossing 5-8 and holding A-2-2-J. Combined averages favor this slightly. Hand has 31 cuts that improve from 4 points to a maximum of 14/15 points. Crib improves with a cut of a 2, 5, 7, 8, and 15 face cards.
Guest says: Roger, show data to WH
Rosemarie44 says: Hi Roger: What data? Who or what is WH? Ras can assist you with anything that is "cribbage". He would be happy to help you. He is my teacher.
Guest says: The sparrow has eaten the earthworm. He will fly south as expected. Over.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Friday 4:15 AM
When you can get a 5 Card into your Crib for "free," do it!
dgergens says: Why do you say free? You gave up a six point hand for a four point hand.
JQT says: A 5 Card, or *any* two cards that add up to 5, is always bound to be worth at least 2 points in the Crib.
JQT says: Thus we're assured of *still* beginning with at least six points.
dgergens says: Well, I was playing one of my kids the other night, and I can assure you, a 5 in the crib doesn't guarantee squat, twice. But you used the hedge, bound to be, so I can't be too hard on you. I agree with you, odds are..., but somehow I can beat the odds when they're not in my favor.
JQT says: A 5 Card, or *any* two cards that add up to 5, and you will ALWAYS get at least 2 points in the Crib. 100%!
JQT says: For example, you might Toss (2 3) and get a Crib of 22359, or you might Toss (5 5) and get a Crib of A2556 ... note that if you ever throw either a 5 Card, or *any* two cards that add up to 5, you will ALWAYS get at least two points in the Crib. Those two points might not come from the 5 Card (or from the 5 Card combination) itself, but it will always be there. Try to form any Crib (five cards, including the Cut) that contains either: a 5 Card, or *any* two cards that add up to 5, and I assure you that you will ALWAYS get at least two points in the Crib. Try it!
JQT says: Hence, tossing the 5 Card today is indeed "free" when it comes to assessing our starting or "static" points.
Ras2829 says: Hi dgergens: A single 5 or cards that total 5 (2-3 or A-4) will always score two points whether in hand or crib. Put the five on the table and pull four cards at random from the deck. There will always be two points unless the hand or crib is short a card. Admittedly sometimes it will not be the five that scores the two points. No four cards with a five will ever total less than 2 in count. a deck of 52 with one in each denonmination and suite guarantees such. No matter how hard you try if you did this for weeks son end, there would never be five cards with a zero total of one of the five was a five spot or a combination totaling five was present. . Please tell us know when you encounter that zero and what the cards looked like. Wonder why folks keep saying "there is no 19?" Anybody knows that 18 with the right Jack is 19!
JQT says: My nickname for a Crib of ALL Four Jacks is called ... the "Teenager" (one day, I need to publish all of these ; - )
Hillchem says: I have a couple friends who occasionally play a modified cribbage game where you get 19 points for a "19" hand. It ends up being similar to the game hearts where if things are bad enough you try to shoot the moon. Anyways, they didn't know about that a A-4 will guarantee at least two points and would sometimes complain about not getting the right cut when they held hands like A-4-6-7. I ended up letting them know that it wasn't the cut that was letting them down.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Friday 5:15 AM
Small hand rule. Hands of 8 or less (we've got one), don't give up points and take into account the total value of hand/crib (6 points either keep of 8-2-2-5 or A-2-2-J with the 5 in the crib). Unless Ras has repealed/amended the rule, I think this fits perfectly and keeping the A-2-2 together makes for a chance of the cut we so deservedly got. (A rarity in cribbage...LOL.)
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 5:23 AM
Down by 13, its time for a little magic. Presto! A 3 starter! I will try to parlay the 2's at the end. I just might be back in the game.
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Friday 5:58 AM
Not crazy about 58 but it is better than AJ.
glmccuskey
4101 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Friday 6:00 AM
Only giving up two points to throw 5-J. Why not? Nice cut.
Inushtuk1
1487 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Friday 8:09 AM
What JQT said. Also, our opponent is only minus 2. I need to think defense here. Getting that 5 out of my hand can only be good on defense.

Great cut. I have 17 known points. Probably 3 or 4 more with at least 2 key connectors in my crib. I’ll play defense to the lead a bit. I would like to parlay the deuces at the end. But not desperate to do so.
JRCeagle78 says: In response to yesterday's comment, I will be in Brookline. We haven't had the opportunity to play each other lately, but we can only hope.
Inushtuk1 says: Well we’ve had quite a few opportunities to play each other. I just haven’t had the opportunity to *beat* you yet. : - ) See you Sunday morning.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Friday 8:45 AM
With the 3 cut, I don't expect a crib more than 4 to 6 points so I will play defense. I have a guaranteed 1 peg but the 2-2 may give me more since I don't expect the pone to have another. I should end the hand around hole 93-95 if the pone plays a risky hand.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Friday 9:24 AM
I liked suited 5-J in the crib though it looks like this was the inferior choice by about .3

In such a marginal position and with this hand I'd play "optimally". I want to get past 86 while keeping pone behind 96.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Friday 9:57 AM
Today is a good example of how this site has helped me improve my game. My initial instinct was to maximize my hand, keep the 2,2,5,8, and let the crib land where it may. But, from my time spent here, realized the J,A in the crib was probably pretty useless, and that if I was willing to gamble 2 points, I would have a 5 in my crib, and keep the A,2,2, together for a possible dbl run. And voila, great spinner.
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Friday 10:16 AM
Contrary to popular belief 5-8 is a strong discard to own crib. Sure the 5-J is even stronger. The 5-J just won't recover the potential loss in hand score with the added crib value. The five spot with anything averages very near 6 points. and the 5-8 average is 5.564 (550) 16/91 scores 2 points 7.09% and 8 or more 26.542%. Those are good numbers and it scores 8 or more nearly 4 times as frequently as it scores a mere two points. Good puzzle james500 as it reflects choices commonly found in play. With opponent at 84 (needing 11 to reach 4th street CPZ (95-99) will peg optimally.
Ras2829 says: BTW the 5-8 discard has some healthy neighbors as well. Those that precede the 5-8 at 16/91 are 2-2 14/91 and 6-6 15/91 and the two which follow are 2-5 17/91 and 4-4 18/91.
Ras2829 says: Can you think of those 91 discards as being listed 30 to a page? If so you will soon have some idea of what shows on page one. If you are aware of that page, you'll often be able to make a page one discard to own or opponent crib. You'll find digging into page 2 or page 3 will be unnecessary most of the time. The high/low scoring discards are often available when you condition yourself to be looking for them.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 1:44 PM
It might seem as if it's a straight choice between 2-2-5-8 (A-J) and A-2-2-J (5-8) but perhaps A-2-2-8 (5-J) is worth looking at as well:

2-2-5-8: 6pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.65) = 9¾pts

A-2-2-J: 4pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.48) = 9½pts

A-2-2-8: 2pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 9pts

Potential:

2-2-5-8: Improves with 22, 3333, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 12pts with 22, 555, 888 = 8 cuts.

A-2-2-J: Improves with AAA, 22, 3333, 4444, 555 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 22, 3333, JJJ = 12 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

A-2-2-8: Improves with AAA, 22, 3333, 4444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 6/8/10pts with 22, 3333, 4444, 555 = 13 cuts.

Pegging:

I think with a 3-card magic eleven and 3 low-card and a mid-card A-2-2-8 will peg the best.

Position:

We're well into 3rd street CPZ and Pone is a little short. I'll play Defense to keep them that way.

Summary:

2-2-5-8 has the best starting value by ¼pt over A-2-2-J and ¾pts over A-2-2-8. However A-2-2-8 has the most cuts for improvement and 13 for 6-10pts. It also should peg well. I don't think it will make up the ½-¾pt though. A-2-2-J has less cuts for improvement but 4 more cuts than 2-2-5-8 for an average/good hand and a better maximum at 14pts.
With 3 low-cards and a knave I also think it will peg well. So I'll throw the 5-8.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 2:10 PM
At 71*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W3 %____W4 %
A-2-2-J___6.80+(-2.33)+5.40=9.87____10.3____24.5
A-2-2-8___4.83+(-2.39)+7.05=9.49_____8.9____22.4
2-2-5-8___8.22+(-2.30)+3.53=9.45_____8.4____23.3

Defense______L3 %____L4 %
A-2-2-J______42.9____67.4
A-2-2-8______44.1____70.2
2-2-5-8______41.9____68.9

A-2-2-J is 0.38pt best for expected averages and is appreciably better for Win %s and Loss %s which both take account of the board position. So I'll select 5-8 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.