Saturday 3:29 AM

Need a defensive discard here, so I'll ignore the Q-2 option and choose between Q-8 and Q-9.

Q-9 is a better (from Pone's point of view) discard, but the flush starts with a higher hand value.

The 2 is the lead least likely to be scored on, but it is my escape card. If Dealer plays a middle card on it, I could get trapped in an unwelcome run. 6 lead.

   

Saturday 3:46 AM

Chose the diamonds and tossing 8-Q. If I remember correctly Ras stated that these cards are usually only worth 2 points 36% of the time.

   

Saturday 3:49 AM

Playing to win here. Trying to balk the opponent here. Six lead here , pegging by Barlow theory. dec

   

Saturday 4:55 AM

The flush gave me pause, but this is one of those situation where I need a 16 and I'll go for broke. and I broke ...

   

Saturday 4:57 AM

I played the flush because I like the 8-K defensive throw. I’ll lead the seven and play the 2 if it gets fifteened or paired.

   

Saturday 5:31 AM

Will anyone dare try 6-Q or 9-Q?

   

Saturday 7:52 AM

I like the flush and I like the Q-8 toss. Play off play off play off.

Saturday 9:18 AM

The (Q-8) is almost as safe as (Q-9), with a much higher resulting average hand.

Playing defense to keep our opponent short of 111 as much as possible with the 2 lead.

Good luck everyone in Brookline tomorrow. See you there.

   

Saturday 12:18 PM

Three good posbilities here - 2-6-7-9 (8-Q), 6-7-8-9 (2-Q) and 2-6-7-8 (9-Q):

2-6-7-9: 8pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = +3¾pts

6-7-8-9: 8pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.56) = +3½pts

2-6-7-8: 7pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = +3pts

Potential:

2-6-7-9: Improves with 222, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 11/12/14pts with 222, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 999 = 19 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

6-7-8-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 16pts with 666, 777, 888, 999 = 12 cuts.

2-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 10/11/14/16pts with 222, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 999 = 19 cuts.

Pegging:

All three hands will peg well but the flush will also be difficult to read.

Position:

Opponent is already well into position so I'll play Defense to hold them back.

Summary:

2-6-7-9 is about ½pt better for starting value than 6-7-8-9 (0.35 + 0.20) and although it doesn't have the 16pt potential maximum it does have more cuts for a good/very good hand. Also it will peg well. There will also be some negative delta for the 8 as we hold a 7 and a 9. So I'll throw 8-Q.

   

Saturday 1:07 PM

At 86-97* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

__________________Dlr's
Defense____Hand___Pegs____Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
6-7-8-9____10.57+(-2.63)+(-4.74)=3.20____0.0____6.8
2-6-7-9____10.20+(-2.83)+(-4.19)=3.18____0.0____5.5
2-6-7-8_____9.39+(-2.87)+(-4.06)=2.46____0.0____5.1

Defense_______L1 %___L2 %
6-7-8-9_______5.3____54.7
2-6-7-9_______3.8____52.0
2-6-7-8_______4.1____51.7

6-7-8-9 is best for expected averages by 0.02pt and is slightly best for Win %s. However 2-6-7-9 is appreciably best for Loss %s and as I'm recommending a Safe strategy and the difference in expected averages is so slight I'll select 8-Q to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll lead the 2 and play Defense:

Lead____________Dlr's Pegging Pts.
2___________________(-2.02)
6___________________(-2.07)
7___________________(-2.39)
9___________________(-2.39)

   

Saturday 1:27 PM

Am playing def., def., def. holding the flush for 8 points and discarding 8-Q. Will lead the 7 retaining the deuce as an escape card. Can't bring myself to play the 6-7-8-9 even tough hand has the greatest potential. Chance of winning this game is very slim like 1/17. What do you think your chances of winning are? Don't think the 2-Q would be the choice as that high scoring 2-3 is second most frequent discard made by dealer in this wonderful game. Play it SAFE! Frankly if not holding the 8 points with the flush, would have discarded 9-Q and played 2-6-7-8.