Tuesday 3:16 AM

Nice one james500. I think that we will have to play our position first even though the 9-K was very tempting. Tossing the gapper, 7-9, lives us with a hand starting at 6 points rather than 4 points (9-K).
The former has 31 cuts that improve the hand to 8/10/12 points.

   

Tuesday 3:18 AM

As much as we might wish to play *defense* here, I believe we should instead adopt an *offensive* posture today.

With our Opponent "Ahead and Dealing" from the 4th Street 'par' Hole, we almost have no choice other than to risk throwing "The Curse" of Toss (7 9).

The reality is that we probably have more CONTROL over our own score from this difficult 'relative's position than we do over our Opponent's score.

Let's lead the Four of Clubs ... just lay it out there all nonchalantly.

   

Tuesday 3:29 AM

Agree with the first 3 commenters: we need to get into position, can not give up 2 points, and many cuts for 10 or 12.

   

Tuesday 3:37 AM

This is why I visit here daily. I have elected to play defense. I figure I must do everything I can to slow don my opponent already dealing from his/her CPZ. However I can understand the reasoning of the first three. This cut still puts me in my CPZ. What will Ras and Hal say?? How close a call is this? Is it a matter of style or math?

   

Tuesday 3:58 AM

math and 95 is not the end all in position its a lil harder then you might think. Keeping the more defensive keep there are lot of cuts that make this hand has a minimal gain. Lead the four and probably dump that ace soon. dec

   

Tuesday 4:39 AM

I need 12 more than I need defense. I might have gotten away with tossing 79. Lead a 4

   

Tuesday 4:43 AM

Went the same way as Joekayak.

   

Tuesday 5:43 AM

Only giving up two points to throw the second worst discard. 7-9 could end the game right here. I’ll lead the four of clubs and peg optimal.

   

Tuesday 7:01 AM

K-9 will slow them down and the A-4-4-7 should just be good enough to get me where I want to be. With a good box when it's my turn as dealer I'll be happy.

   

Tuesday 9:46 AM

+1/-1, I aim for best expected average

   

Tuesday 10:24 AM

Playing my position first since need 8 points to reach 4th street CPZ 95-99. It's off., off.,opt. for me. Note the shift in strategy once seeing the starter card and knowing that I have ten points. What does the shift mean? It means I would not pair an Ace or King if room for opponent to squeeze a third one in for six peg points. My lead is the 4c. What will my response be if dealer pairs that four? Advance the count with the King. There are two reasons that dealer would pair my four lead: dealer needs pegs as has a low-scoring hand or dealer has 4-4. Can't chance the latter in this position. If I were at hole 91-92 or better at the start of this hand, would have discarded 9-K. BTW have these thoughts on the front burner from the beginning. Have a plan and follow it. Very important in this situation and in other aspects of this wonderful game.

   

Tuesday 12:13 PM

It looks like a straight choice between A-4-4-K (7-9) and A-4-4-7 (9-K):

A-4-4-K: 6pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.26) = ¾pt

A-4-4-7: 4pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.03) = 0pt

Potential:

A-4-4-K: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 6666, 777 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 10/12pts with AAA, 44 + 15xXs = 20 cuts.

A-4-4-7: Improves with AAA, 3333, 44, 6666, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 8/12pts with 3333, 44, 777 + 15xXs = 25 cuts.

Pegging:

I think A-4-4-7 will peg slightly better than A-4-4-K

Position:

Dealer is virtually at 4th street positional hole and we're well behind. I'll play Offense.

Summary:

A-4-4-7 has more cuts for improvement and 25 for 8/12pts but A-4-4-K has a ¾pt better starting value and more cuts for 12pts (AAA, 44, KKK). So I'll risk the gapper 7-9.

   

Tuesday 12:40 PM

At Bangor, ME. I had this same conundrum A-4-4-7-9-Q. My position was similar but I was 3 or 4 holes further behind. I discarded 7-9, an 8 was cut, and the dealer discarded 8-9. Game over.

I still would discard the same way.

   

Tuesday 2:49 PM

At 87-95* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W2 %___W3 %
A-4-4-K___8.57+(-2.35)+(-5.22)=1.00____9.7____31.0
A-4-4-7___6.87+(-2.28)+(-4.16)=0.43____8.2____30.2

Defense______L2 %____L3 %
A-4-4-K______42.3____62.4
A-4-4-7______37.9____63.6

A-4-4-K is 0.57pt better for expected averages and slightly better for Win %. A-4-4-7 is much lower for Loss %s though because of the much safer 9-K discard. So I'll select 7-9 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll lead a 4 and play Optimally (cautious optimal):

Lead___________Net Pegging Pts.
4__________________(-0.34)
A__________________(-1.17)
K__________________(-1.80)