Wednesday 3:23 AM

Close on statistics between tossing 8-9 or A-4, neither of which I would want to do with a 4 point hand.
Liam has both at 6.70 points (exp. avg. hand) but favors 8-9 (5.70 points) vs. A-4 (5.80 points.
Ras favors A-4 (5.62 points) vs. 8-9 (5.89 points).
Also, with a 4 points hand tossing A-4 gives up 2 points right off to opponent.
Let's see what others chose and why.

   

Wednesday 4:06 AM

This stage of the game I choose offense and try to get that next par zone of 33-34. Four lead here. dec

   

Wednesday 4:40 AM

Can't decide whether I should be pleased to see that cut or not.
4 lead.

   

Wednesday 4:44 AM

We are at a positional disadvantage here, so will not throw A4, need to slow up our opponent. Choice of A8 or AJ. Normally will not throw a J, but A8 could be dangerous. So it is AJ by process of elimination.

   

Wednesday 4:47 AM

Nice puzzle. I like the 4 card run, and I'll toss the A4. Mediocre cut. Lead the Jack and play off.

   

Wednesday 6:07 AM

It’s only first street so no need to panic, yet. I’ll lead the four and take any pegs I can get.

   

Wednesday 12:32 PM

Why retain Four Points and throw away a Nickel, when we can instead retain Four Points and maybe give away nothing at all!?

   

Wednesday 12:33 PM

Like I Said: Why retain Four Points and throw away a Nickel, when we can instead retain Four Points and maybe give away nothing at all!?

   

Wednesday 12:34 PM

I didn't like the A-4 or the 8-9 (the latter has a max of 24, and I hate tossing cards that could give up 24 points in opponent's crib). Still have my 2 card "magic 11" but not the best with the A-X pair. Cut gives me 5 points and doesn't immediately help the crib, although the 6-8 combo makes me hope opponent tossed face cards.

   

Wednesday 1:58 PM

I think its between A-4-10-J (8-9), 8-9-10-J (A-4) and 4-9-10-J (A-8) but A-9-10-J may peg better so might be worth considering:

A-4-10-J: 4pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = -1¾pts

8-9-10-J: 4pts - 6pts (Schell: 5.72) = -2pts

4-9-10-J: 3pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.85) = -1¾pts

A-9-10-J: 3pts - 5pts 9Schell: 4.94) = -2pts

Potential:

A-4-10-J: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 999 + 14xXs = 27 cuts = 58.7% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 23 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob 11/46 = 0.24pt.

8-9-10-J; Improves with 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 7/8/10pts with 5555, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJ = 20 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob. 11/46 = 0.24pt.

4-9-10-J: Improves with AAA, 2222, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 7/8pts with AAA, 5555, 999, 101010, JJJ = 16 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob. 11/46 = 0.24pt.

A-9-10-J: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 31 cuts = 67.4% up to 7/8/9pts with 444, 5555, 999, 101010, JJJ = 16 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob. 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Pegging:

I think A-4-10-J will peg best.

Position:

It looks as if its 3rd deal and as Pone we'll be playing Offense.

Summary:

A-4-10-J has fewer cuts for improvement but has a better maximum and 23 cuts for 7-10pts. It also should peg better the others. So I'll risk the 8-9.

   

Wednesday 2:06 PM

At 23-25* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W7 %____W8 %
A-4-10-J__6.70+1.43+(-5.47)=2.66____14.2____16.6
8-9-10-J__6.67+1.22+(-5.87)=2.02____14.4____15.3
4-9-10-J__5.46+1.17+(-4.62)=2.01____12.1____16.2
A-9-10-J__5.26+1.28+(-4.76)=1.98____11.9____15.9
4-8-9-10__5.26+1.30+(-4.65)=1.91____12.0____16.3
A-8-9-10__5.26+1.35+(-4.71)=1.90____12.2____16.3

Offense______L7 %____L8 %
A-4-10-J_____36.8____58.2
8-9-10-J_____38.7____60.6
4-9-10-J_____33.9____57.4
A-9-10-J_____33.9____57.6
4-8-9-10_____33.7____57.3
A-8-9-10_____33.7____57.2

A-4-10-J is best for expected averages by 0.64pt and is slightly best for Win %s. Although its not lowest for Loss %s because of the risk of 8-9. Even so I'll select 8-9 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll lead the 4 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Pts.
4__________________1.53
J__________________1.43
10_________________1.40
A__________________1.30

   

Wednesday 2:24 PM

Playing off., off., off, lead the four and take any pegs offered. Holding this hand gives the best potential hand score and the best offensive pegging outlook. RAS is always fearful of 8-9 discard as have discarded/recorded 699 times with sometimes alarming results. So what does 8-9 look like to opponent crib? The average is 5.891, scores two or less 30.24%, tallies 3-7 40.982% , scores 8-11 22.723%, and reaches 12 or more 6.055%Of course it works so well with the most frequent discard made by dealer of 7-8. Not far behind is the dealer's 7-7, 6-7, 7-9, all of which make that 8-9 stack up real well. Yup, it's difficult to turn loose two middle cards when holding just four points. Even so n/d positional holes scream for me to discard the 8-9.