Thursday 3:15 AM

Maybe you can see a way out in this position. We are short 22 points here as pone and with a bunch of cards that start as 6 or 4 points. Appears we have the choice of tossing 2-8 or 6-8 to opponent.
Expected averages favor tossing 2-8 over 6-8. We can't speed up so maybe we can slow him down?

Thursday 4:20 AM

A double problem . We need to keep them short but we eed to get to 105 or more for the next hand. So he pegging might hold them back but with no cut hope they end up 110 or in the high 110s and get ready for the next hand hopefully. dec

Thursday 4:45 AM

6 lead.

Thursday 6:04 AM

Defense. I’ll lead a three.

Thursday 6:44 AM

We will probably be playing defense for this hand and the next. 2-8 is the best discard in this situation. Lead the three and hold out hope that he did not feed his crib

Thursday 7:00 AM

Probably need a Trey Cut to stand any chance of getting close enough to peg out Next Deal.

Thursday 7:13 AM

Not too much of a choice. Some games are like this, take your medicine....

Thursday 7:42 AM

Suspect I'm taking the loss, but opponent may get the classic "2 point hand, 2 point crib", which would make me smile.

Thursday 8:15 AM

I think its between 3-3-6-9 with 6pts but poor potential and the safer discard against 2-3-3-9 for 4pts with good potential and a more risky discard:

3-3-6-9: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.94) = +1pts

2-3-3-9: 4pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.86) = -1½pts

Potential:

3-3-6-9: Improves with 33, 666, 999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 12/16pts with all cuts.

2-3-3-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 666, 7777, 999 + 16xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 8/12/14pts with AAAA, 33, 4444, 999 + 16xXs = 29 cuts.

Pegging:

2-3-3-9 should peg much better.

Position:

Dealer is past positional hole. I'll play Offense to perhaps put myself into a position to peg out next deal as Dealer.

Summary;

2-3-3-9 has a starting value 2½pts less tha 3-3-6-9 but has much better potential and should also peg better. However with the certain 6pts and a chance of 12/16pts and a safer discard in this position 3-3-6-9 has a lot of appeal. In a different position I'd play 2-3-3-9 but here I think it more prudent to go with the more conservative 2-8 and not risk the 6-8.

Thursday 8:36 AM

I dont like anything on this menu! I'll toss 2-8 and try to deaden the crib. Had I known a 7 would win, I would have broken it differently. Lead a 3.

Thursday 8:44 AM

On offense I’ll play it this way. And lead my 9! See Ras’s post, and reply to my question, from July 22, 2017 for the reasons why. This puzzle was submitted the following day as a result of his answer. Not sure that Halscrib will agree with the risky discard though at this particular score. Even less so with the 9 lead.

Thursday 1:16 PM

At 99-99* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
2-3-3-9___8.00+1.83+(-5.40)=4.43____0.5____21.3
3-3-6-9___7.35+1.30+(-4.47)=4.18____0.2____22.8

Offense______L1 %____L2 %
2-3-3-9______13.7____66.9
3-3-6-9_______8.1____62.8

2-3-3-9 is better for expected averages by 0.25pt but 3-3-6-9 is slightly better for Win %s and very much lower for Loss %s because of the much less risky 2-8 compared to suited 6-8. Both Win %s and Loss %s take account of the board position and at this critical stage I'll choose based on these. Therefore I'll select 2-8 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead a 3 and play Defense:

Lead__________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3___________________(-2.07)
9___________________(-2.61)
6___________________(-2.71)

Thursday 4:57 PM

With opponent at hole 99 with the deal (85% chance to win), crib size might be the major factor to consider. Really prefer holding 2-3-3-9 as it poses the greater potential hand score and pegs. Thinking offense when picking up the cards and switching to defense once seeing the starter card. Will lead one of those treys with a blush.