July 20, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
48-43*  ?
46%
37%
5%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 161
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Friday 3:08 AM
it pays to Flush! Start with 9 points vs. 8 points (A-3) and a safer toss to dealer today. Expected averages favor A-7 toss. This hand has more cuts for 13 or 16 points (4444, 333, 555, 666, 77).
It has been mentioned by Ras that dealer is most likely (if he has these cards) will toss 2-3 into his crib. So I wouldn't be likely to toss A-3 his way.
dec
6351 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:42 AM
Yes A-7 might be a big hit or big miss but more likely to not produce then A-3. dec
Guest says: Can someone explain to me why A-3 is more dangerous than A-7. Is it just the run potential?
Guest says: Hi Guest. I believe it’s a combination of what you said, and what Rosemarie said. The (2-3) is one of the top five Dealer discards. It might even be the second most popular. I forget exactly. But it’s right up there.
Inushtuk1 says: Guest number two would be moi.
Ras2829 says: HI Guest: There are 91 discard possibilities equally available, though not equally discarded. To own crib 7/8 is by far the most frequent followed by 2-3. Of the ten most frequent discards made by dealer none include a five, 8 of the ten are mid card choices (6-7-8-9), or low card choices (A-2-3-4). So when non-dealer tosses two mid cards or two low cards, the crib is more likely to be high-scoring. More later.
Gougie00
5723 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:52 AM
Never break a double run? How about if its the hardest double run to defend? I'll hold the flush and lead the 3. My goal would be hole 60 and I might get there.
james500
3916 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 4:20 AM
Many on here, and I dare say more widely too, do not like to discard a 7. With a second 7 out of circulation though, I reckon A-7 might be safe enough today.

7 lead from my 7-6-3 sixteen.
glmccuskey
4094 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Friday 5:03 AM
I’ll lead the six leaving my three to get out of trouble or to get a fifteen if the six is paired.
Inushtuk1
1480 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Friday 9:00 AM
Definitely keep the flush with 8 cuts for 16. Playing defense after the cut, as there’s no way I will peg enough to reach 69/70.

Now Greg mentions that the 5-6-7-7 is the hardest double run to defend. I did not know that. But it makes sense. However this flush will not be easy to defend either. Gary’s solution is to lead his 6. But I prefer to lead my 3, denying the Dealer the low lying fruit, hoping I don’t get jammed up there after.
Inushtuk1 says: A more important reason to play defense after the cut, is that Dealer has only marginal position at best, and the K starter does not match our (A-7) toss. Had that cut been a 7 or an 8, we would be forced to play offense, to try and stay close with our opponent, who may now have a large crib.
Guest says: Do you actually consider position, look at your own hand, consider the possible crib values and then alter the way you play even though you're still on 2nd street? Too early for me. I always want to maximize my points while holding my opponent to the least possible. Sometimes you get a choice when pegging - do I take 5 and let my opponent have 2, or do I take 3 and let them have 0. I outscore him by the same amount either way, but I'm not looking at the par holes until at least 3rd street
Ras2829 says: Hi Guest: The players at the top of this game play position when their pegs are off the board awaiting the score of the first point. Those who wait to play position until later in the game lose lots of earlier opportunities to correct a positional disadvantage or to enhance a positional advantage. If you become familiar with Critical Position Zones and the Theory of 26, you'll see how this understanding applies to hand retention, discarding, and choice of pegging strategy. If you learn nothing more about the game, that positional knowledge will improve your winning percentage whether playing socially or competitively.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Friday 9:20 AM
Usually, we're willing to give up a full point in order to retain a FLUSH.

But today, we can hold a full point EXTRA by keeping the FLUSH.

And in addition, not only do we hold a better hand with the FLUSH, but we give away less to our Opponent in the process.

In summary: There's nothing not to like about holding onto the FLUSH today.
Ras2829
5146 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Friday 1:29 PM
It pays to flush! Start with 9 points in holding the flush. A point often missed by those who are afflicted with "double-run" hypnosis" is that any card which scores 16 points with the double run also tallies 16 with the flush. The trey allows us to escape in the pegging if we choose. There is no escape card with the double run. Since we are already at hole 48, its. def., def., def. for me. Second street CPZ is 43-47. Dealer is at the beginning of that zone and we are beyond it awaiting the upcoming deal.
Ras2829 says: Here are the discarding profiles on A-7 and A-3. Although they look quite similar, note the differences. The A-7 average is 4.813 (1,046)38/91, scores 2 or less 28.202%, tallies 3-7 50.027%, scores 8-11 17.083%, and reaches 12 or more 4.588%. The A-3 is a bit further down the list at 4.959 2,066) 45/91, scores 2 or less 27.444%, tallies 3-7 50.801%, scores 8-11 13.108%, and reaches 12 or more 8.587%. Note that the A-3 scores 12 or more points 90% more frequently than does the A-7. That's a reflection of the dealer discard of 2-3. So that alone, without knowledge of the lower average and better ranking should often result in A-7 in preference to A-3 in hands that offer such a choice. In no case am I an advocate of the A-7 discard as it is along ways down the list. When compared to the A-3 it is the better choice because of the lower average, ranking, and the number of cribs of 12 or more points.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. So playing defense, do you like the 3 lead, or the 6 to break up the run, leaving you with the escape card. I find it a close choice.
Ras2829 says: Think you are right as to the lead of the trey and the six as being very close in potential pegs. Choosing defense I like the lead of the six spot as it breaks the 5-6-7 sequence. If paired I recoup the two pegs and escape with the trey. They trey might still be the best choice as lead by a few hundredths and will defer to HalscribCLX on that as I have no way to compete with that cribbot, given my mere mortal status.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Friday 2:44 PM
I'm clearly with the majority. But my question is with the lead. We have three panelists all advocating different leads. Lead the 3? 6? 7? I'm with Ras. I'm on defense here. Which lead works best on defense? The weakest part of my game is pegging. Which card to lead and why??
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Joe. On offense I think it’s clearly the 7. On defense it’s a bit tougher. But either the 3 or the 6.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 2:44 AM
At 48-43* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crb____Total____W5 %____W6 %
3-5-6-7C__12.46+1.70+(-4.13)=10.03____24.3____48.7
5-6-7-7___11.83+1.48+(-4.86)= 8.45____22.0____45.4

Offense_______L5 %____L6 %
3-5-6-7C______13.9____31.3
5-6-7-7_______14.7____33.1

The flush is better for expected averages by 1.58pts and is appreciably better for Win %s nd Loss %s which both take account of the board position. So I'll select A-7S to discard.

After the K cu I'll lead the 3 and play Defense:

Lead________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3_________________(-2.28)
6_________________(-2.56)
7_________________(-2.92)
5_________________(-3.06)