July 21, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
17*-18  ?
31%
26%
12%
8%
6%
5%
5%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 133
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:13 AM
Today we have the choice of tossing 2-5 or A-4 to our crib. Both hands start with 4 points, have the exact average expected hand (6.70 point) a min of 4 and a max. of 11 points.
The difference lies in the crib value, and 2-5 wins out at 5.54 points vs. 5.42 points.
The crib (2-5) increases with cuts of 2, 5, 8, and X's. While A-4 increases with A, 4, and X's.
Rosemarie44 says: For this hand, 19 cuts increase 8/9/10-11 points. For tossing A-4, 17 cuts increase hand to 8/9/10-11 points.
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:29 AM
14 face cards possible. Eleven count on hand for defensive pegging. Now I am thinking more defense on the pegging after that cut. dec
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 4:07 AM
I'll try J-5, and hope for a favourable cut.

Two card eleven with 10-A:
X(10)-10(20)-X(30)-A(31/2).
Or a three card sixteen with 2-10-4:
X(10)-2(12)-5(17)-10(27)-go-4(31/2).
Inushtuk1 says: Hi James. Hope all is well. I’m not sure our three card sixteen will come in handy often here. But supposing Pone has 2-3-5-X, and for some reason decides to lead her/his X-card. Our 10 make it (20), and hopefully (20-2). S/he will probably play the 5(25). We could play our 2! for (27). This forces Pone to either pair our 2(29-2) risking our (31-8). They don’t know we don’t have another deuce. So maybe they play the 3(30), and our A scores (31-5). But as I said at the outset, this is an unlikely scenario, as the proper lead with these cards for Pone is probably the 3. But even then we can dump our A and entice a run. TTFN.
glmccuskey
4101 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Saturday 4:35 AM
I’m a student today. I’ll be back to read on.
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:25 AM
Yoda (Al Miller) told me this is the way to go.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:31 AM
5 > A & 4
Inushtuk1
1487 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 7:19 AM
Hey! It’s a Ras puzzle. See James’ post. And one more chance to pair a small card lead. Keep the peggers. Certainly not the way to go on defense, or even offense later in the game perhaps. But at this early stage it’s worth a shot. Much better pegging and once in a while a large crib.
Inushtuk1 says: 38 cuts improve this hand to at least a total of 4 points. And a 3 cut gives us 8 points. Only (6666, 7777) offer no help, and they may boost the crib.
Inushtuk1 says: OK. After reading Ras’s post, I *should* have said...”nearly half the time a crib of 8 or more points.” Those are good odds.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:52 PM
At 17*-18 playing an Offense strategy of the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense____Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W8 %____W9 %
A-2-4-10___4.52+3.30+6.79=14.61____37.7____27.2
A-4-10-J___6.70+2.50+5.40=14.60____39.3____30.0
A-2-4-J____4.78+3.30+6.50=14.58____38.4____27.9
2-5-10-J___6-70+2.67+5.19=14.56____38.6____28.4

Offense________L8 %____L9 %
A-2-4-10_______47.9____51.2
A-4-10-J_______45.8____48.5
A-2-4-J________47.9____50.6
2-5-10-J_______47.3____50.0

A-2-4-10 is best for expected averages by 0.01pt but A-4-10-J is best for Win %s and Loss %s. Its early in the game but as the difference in expected averages is very small so I'll choose based on the Win/Loss %s and select 2-5 to discard.

After the 7S cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:31 PM
Had queried this hand from live play on Cribbage Prof some time back and knew that the top four choices were within .05 of a point. Given the greater potential pegging and crib score, will still settle on 5-J to crib. Like that pegging edge and crib score when playing offense. BTW on 1,678 discards of 5-J to my crib, 41.358% have scored 8-11 points and 12 or more points have been tallied in another 5.78%. That's nearly half the cribs at 8 or more points. That's because it works so well with those frequent Q-K and 10-Q discards from non-dealer. The average for 5-J to own crib based on my accumulated empirical data is 7.135. Also wanted folks to see that the A-4 discard was #4 among these as shown in HalscribCLX analysis above. Inushtuk1 wrestles with the "sweet sixteen" in his reply to james500. The two card "eleven from heaven" (A-X) often works for the dealer to close the count at 31-2 and is absolutely useless when held by non-dealer.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Would you keep to this way on 4th Street as well on offense?
Inushtuk1 says: Less room to catch up if we end up with a 2 plus 2 result.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Most often would play my position first and would play the hand here as shown. On fourth street might go for defense if I had a positional advantage like I was 98-101 and opponent were at holes 85-88. If opponent were shoulder-shoulder with me, would make the offensive choice even on fourth street. As you pointed out only 6 or 7 cut gives us a chance for that South African Bishop (tu-tu).