August 6, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
92-96*  ?
52%
39%
4%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 153

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dec
4284 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 3:13 AM
Almost threw K-10 but wanted a little more offensive potential here so defense with defense,pegging and maybe some ping action. Four lead here. dec
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Rosemarie44
1034 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 3:16 AM
Toss the low scoring T-K to dealer and keep the peggers. Hand has a 3 card eleven.
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james500
1973 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 3:20 AM
Same approach as yesterday; two points and a defensive discard, rather than four points.

4 lead covered by A/7 in my hand.
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Gougie00
3723 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 4:19 AM
I went for K-10. Had I had a decent hand, I would have kept the points.
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Jazzselke
1122 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Monday 5:59 AM
Only 6 or 9 cuts do not help the hand. Also good pegging cards; if you lead the 4, only a 6 or 9 response by the opponent prevents you from scoring on your second play.
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wasa
1037 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Monday 6:55 AM
Kept a great pegging hand and tossed the (mathematically) lowest scoring cards to opponent's crib. Not the cut I was hoping for.
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JQT
2486 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 7:10 AM
As RAS said yesterday: holding such cards as A-3-4-7, we are still likely to get 6, 7, or 8 points, enough to attain our desired position.

Meanwhile, even after the 5 Card Cut, Dealer's Crib probably gets no more help from Toss T-K than from the perhaps more dangerous Toss 3-7.

Therefore, even if I knew a 5 Card was going to be the Cut, I believe Toss T-K is still the safest discard today.
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dgergens
204 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Monday 10:58 AM
So, I always make my choice first, of my own volition, before looking at any tools or others' choices. Disregarding the popular choice, if I match any of the advanced regulars here, I'm satisfied I'm 'getting it'. But today, I stand alone (with the regular posters, the voters are roughly split on this). So I went over to Liam Brown discard analyzer to get a breakdown on the choices. While discarding 10,K is the recommendation, and 3,7 is the 'aggressive' move, because the average numbers fall out that way, I don't find the numbers overly compelling; that 3,7 is CLEARLY the WRONG choice. So I will stand alone today without compunction.
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Inushtuk1
713 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Monday 12:18 PM
A sub-par crib here could give us the game. Agree with Jamesí 4 card lead.
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Ras2829
3212 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 2:24 PM
Got to be looking for A-2-5-7 as in yesterday's puzzle, A-3-4-7 as in todays, or A-3-5-6. In hands with those sets of four, a low scoring discard is often available (10-K, 9-K, 9-Q, 6-K, etc.) In this case today the 10-K is one of two discard choices that average less than 4.0 points. The 10-K is 1/91 and scores two points or less 45.494%. Yeah dealer might put a five in crib. As much as dealer would like to do so, it is seldom possible as that five works with A-9, 2-8, 3-7, 4-6, 5-5, 6-7, and all those X-pointers.
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Coeurdelion
3678 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 2:53 PM
Its between A-3-4-7 (10-K) and A-4-10-K (3-7):

A-3-4-7: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 3.88) = -2pts

A-4-10-K: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.01) = -1pts

Potential:

A-3-4-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 777, 8888 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 6/7/8pts with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 777, 8888 = 24 cuts.

A-4-10-K: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/10pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 101010, KKK = 16 cuts.

Pegging:

A-3-4-7 should peg much better than A-4-10-K with 3 low cards and a middle card and a 2-card and 3-card magic elevens.

Position:

Opponent is already in position and if they score 16pts they will odds-on to score out next deal. I'll play Defense to try to hold them back.

Summary:

A-4-10-K has a 1pt higher starting value but A-3-4-7 has many more cuts for improvement and 24 for 6-8pts. Also it will peg much better plus in this position the lower scoring 10-K I believe is the correct strategy so I'll throw the 10-K.
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HalscribCLX
3438 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 3:41 PM
At 92-96* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total____W2 %____W3 %
A-3-4-7___5.04+(-2.72)+(-4.06)=(-1.74)___17.8___36.9
A-4-10-K__6.00+(-2.96)=(-4.96)=(-1.92)___16.1___34.4

Defense_______L2 %____L3 %
A-3-4-7_______45.1____54.8
A-4-10-K______46.1____58.0

A-3-4-7 is better for expected averages and is appreciably better for Win %s and Loss %s which both take account of the board position which is at a critical stage.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Defense:

Lead_________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3___________________(-2.15)
4___________________(-2.18)
A___________________(-2.26)
7___________________(-2.51)
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