August 7, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
93*-95  ?
45%
35%
6%
5%
3%
1%
1%
1%
Total votes: 156

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JQT
2439 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 3:11 AM
A 'rookie' player might decide upon Toss A-J or Toss 4-Q, but modern 'Cribbage Analysis' has found at least two better solutions.

The current *defensive* approach, and the choice that I have decided upon, has us stashing the prized Toss 2-3 into our Own Crib.

And yet *offensively* there are some more recent analyses that have converged upon Toss J-Q as the better solution.

And it may indeed be, if we are not playing DEFENSE. But in the given position, I believe some defense is called for, and hence Toss 2-3.

And are you gonna argue with me this early in the morning? I didn't *think* so! ; - )
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Rosemarie44
982 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 3:12 AM
Nice one Ras. Believe in this position we need a good hand and a good crib. We need safe pegs. Pone will be around 105 with an average hand.
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dec
4224 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 3:12 AM
2-3 potential greater then A-4. Offense. dec
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Gougie00
3663 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 4:13 AM
This is the way to go.
Reply
james500
1922 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 4:44 AM
2-3 also. Nice cut.
X-A eleven, (which also fakes a diamond flush here). J reply to a J/K lead, Q reply to a 10/Q.
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glmccuskey
2796 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Tuesday 5:43 AM
I will admit that Im not sure how to play or peg this hand. Im thinking this is the way I saw Deylnn play in when I sat next to him. I could be wrong. Ill check back later.
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Jazzselke
1079 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 6:15 AM
Although JQ best face-card combination for our own crib, still believe in the classic throw of 23 for this hand.
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Inushtuk1
689 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Tuesday 6:38 AM
Yesterday JQT said that making your decision without looking at other output tools would ultimately make him/her a better player. Okay lets try it. I think we need some offense here. This should be the better pegger offensively. And the hand improves on every cut. But Im only going this way because I can put a (J-Q) in my crib. And if the X- cards were (10-J) or (J-K) on *offense* only keep the long run. The problem is my maximum is only 10 points in my hand. So Halscribs analysis should be pretty close between A-2-3-4, A-2-3-X, 2-3-4-X and A-4-X-X But on *defense* I would toss (2-3), Michaelis style.
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wasa
982 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Tuesday 7:37 AM
I always want to put 5-5 or a 2-3 in my own crib. The flush is a red herring - considered tossing J-Q as I think the A-2-3-4 is the best pegging hand, but damn those torpedoes full speed ahead!
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dgergens
170 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Tuesday 10:43 AM
Just like yesterday, I find myself almost alone, save for Inushtuk (which makes me feel better). I get that a 2,3 in the crib is [on average]valuable, but the chance for a double run was more alluring. Will also post question in JQT section.
Reply
cribbagepogo
2685 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 12:08 PM
A,2,3,4 not suited guaranteed no more that 10 points. Maybe good pegging but I'll take the 2/3 in the crib and chance the pags later. My good friend Bobby Stuart plays this way.
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Coeurdelion
3630 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 1:21 PM
'Mick' Michaelis demonstrated that with A-2-3-4-X-X the 2-3 discard fares better than X-X. But I don't think this takes account of the better pegging of A-2-3-4 and in this case the suited J-Q will of course score better than say 10-K:

A-4-J-Q: 4pts + 6pts (Schell: 7.00) = 10pts

A-2-3-4: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 4.81) = 8pts

Potential:

A-4-J-Q: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/9/10pts with all cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

A-2-3-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8/10pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts.

Pegging:

With 4 close, low cards A-2-3-4 should peg much better than A-4-J-Q if playing Offense.

Position:

We are 3pts short of positional hole but they are 11pts short. I'll play Offense to put ourselves in the best position to hold enough next time.

Summary:

A-4-J-Q starts with 2pts more but A-2-3-4 has very much better potential with guaranteed improvement and 38 cuts for 7-10pts. Also it will peg very much better. The flush is a Ras, red herring. Will A-2-3-4 catch up the 2pts? I think it will so I'll throw the suited J-Q.
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HalscribCLX
3388 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 2:05 PM
At 93*-95 playing a Bold strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W1 %___W2 %
A-2-3-4___8.09+3.80+4.76=16.65____0.6____32.2
A-4-J-Q___6.72+2.43+6.45=15.60____0.1____31.8

Offense_______L1 %___L2 %
A-2-3-4_______0.4____34.7
A-4-J-Q_______0.1____29.7

A-2-3-4 is 1.05pt better for expected averages and slightly better for Win %s. A-4-J-Q is much better for Loss %s but even so I'll select J-Q to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Reply
Ras2829
3154 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 2:05 PM
With opponent t already at hole 95 with a need to deal form 4th street CPZ 95-99, it's off., off., off. for me. As long as n/d doesn't peg backwards, RAS is at a positional disadvantage admittedly. Knowing that I have 12 points after that cut, do need some pegs. Otherwise I might be counting first at 105. Not a good place to be as chances to win from 16 out as non-dealer are 1 of 9. That means I would pair any small card, play the four spot on a X lead.
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