August 7, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
93*-95  ?
45%
35%
6%
5%
3%
1%
1%
1%
Total votes: 156
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:11 AM
A 'rookie' player might decide upon Toss A-J or Toss 4-Q, but modern 'Cribbage Analysis' has found at least two better solutions.

The current *defensive* approach, and the choice that I have decided upon, has us stashing the prized Toss 2-3 into our Own Crib.

And yet *offensively* there are some more recent analyses that have converged upon Toss J-Q as the better solution.

And it may indeed be, if we are not playing DEFENSE. But in the given position, I believe some defense is called for, and hence Toss 2-3.

And are you gonna argue with me this early in the morning? I didn't *think* so! ; - )
Rosemarie44 says: No sir.
JQT says: Oh, and the FLUSH is simply RAS' Ruse. This might 'work' best if we were each perhaps fifteen holes further down the board ... but NOT here!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi JQT. “...but modern ‘Cribbage analysis’ and some more recent analyses”. To what exactly are you referring to? Halscrib? Or something else? Cribbage Forum perhaps?
JQT says: Pretty much 'Yes' and 'Yes' but in reverse order.
dgergens says: First – Thanks for responding yesterday. I understand the par example and the average if you play enough games. The difference between the best averages of the two choices was 1.1 points. That’s not something I’m going to calculate in my head during a game. I didn’t find a 1 point difference that big a deal (once I was provided the data), so I’m not going to berate myself for not choosing the statistically best discard option. Second – Today’s puzzle is even statistically closer, a 0.3 point difference of best average hand + crib, (2,3 vs J,Q discard). So again, I’m not ashamed. But this is my question, and please forgive my ignorance: You refer to the 2,3 discard as a defensive move and Inushtuk considers the J,Q discard and offensive position. Can you please explain this to me? Especially since it’s your crib, what are you defending against?
JQT says: With us as Dealer at Hole 93 and Pone at Hole 95, Inushtuk and dgergens are probably correct in that *offense* is indicated today. I think I probably misplayed this one. However, your "point" about one point is actually worth dwelling upon, since even averages of just tenths of a point add up over time. Remember: a typical game consists of about nine deals, so if you can squeeze just half a point more per deal out of better decision-making, this can add up to four or five more points per game. This seemingly small additional amount of offense is often more than what separates tournament winners from those who go home early! Lastly, the reason why Toss 2-3 can be considered to be defensive is clear when we compare it to the alternative: Pone will likely peg more if we hold A-2-3-4, and in marginal positions, this could cost us the game. But as I just indicated, I think I got this position wrong; we have much less concern to worry than in yesterday's puzzle. Keep up the good observations and great questions!
JQT says: Also, with regards to yesterday: very few players indeed will actually calculate the specific difference between two discards, not to the decimal. But in time, you will be able to discern the vast difference between a discard of 3-7 and T-K. Since there are 91 possible discards, even if you cannot remember or yet memorize details of many of these, it is a worthwhile exercise to break these down into say three groups of about thirty, and at least know from which "group" you are making a comparison. Even easier is to remember that Toss T-K is at one extreme and of course Toss 5-5 is at the other. Eventually, you will simply develop a "feel" for the more subtle nuances, for example what I guessed at yesterday, that even after a 5 Card Cut, I felt that Toss 3-7 would have been more dangerous "over the board" than Toss T-K. Because it's not all a matter of memorization: after enough games, just like driving a car on icy winter roads, you will develop an accurate "sense" that will usually guide you in the proper direction.
JQT says: AND ... like I probably did today ... sometimes, you will get it wrong!
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks JQT for answering *my* question up near the top, and for the great answer to dgergens later on. And yes, dgergens thanks for the great observations and questions.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:12 AM
Nice one Ras. Believe in this position we need a good hand and a good crib. We need safe pegs. Pone will be around 105 with an average hand.
dec
6357 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:12 AM
2-3 potential greater then A-4. Offense. dec
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:13 AM
This is the way to go.
james500
3922 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:44 AM
2-3 also. Nice cut.
X-A eleven, (which also fakes a diamond flush here). J reply to a J/K lead, Q reply to a 10/Q.
glmccuskey
4100 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:43 AM
I will admit that I’m not sure how to play or peg this hand. I’m thinking this is the way I saw Deylnn play in when I sat next to him. I could be wrong. I’ll check back later.
Guest says: It's like coming to a fork in the road, which way, not me I would pick up the fork
Ras2829 says: Hi glmccuskey: Your memory has to be correct regarding DeLynn. Have observed him on infrequent occasions over the years retain A-2-3-4 and discard J-Q or 10-J. Asked him several years ago why he didn't toss 2-3 to own crib. He said "pegging of A-2-3-4 is more than what is gained in the crib" or words to that effect. More later.
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:15 AM
Although JQ best face-card combination for our own crib, still believe in the classic throw of 23 for this hand.
Guest says: My other mentor taught me to stop holding the A234 as the most it can become is 10 points. S :)
Guest says: My other mentor taught me to stop holding the A234 as the most it can become is 10 points. S :)
Inushtuk1
1486 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:38 AM
Yesterday JQT said that making your decision without looking at other output tools would ultimately make him/her a better player. Okay let’s try it. I think we need some offense here. This should be the better pegger offensively. And the hand improves on every cut. But I’m only going this way because I can put a (J-Q) in my crib. And if the X- cards were (10-J) or (J-K) on *offense* only keep the long run. The problem is my maximum is only 10 points in my hand. So Halscrib’s analysis should be pretty close between A-2-3-4, A-2-3-X, 2-3-4-X and A-4-X-X But on *defense* I would toss (2-3), Michaelis style.
Inushtuk1 says: I have 12 known points. I’ll continue on the offensive,
Guest says: I see 11 pts, am I missing something?
Guest says: one pegging point same now also for the 2-3 discard. dec
Inushtuk1 says: Sorry Guest. I should have been more specific. I have 12 known points after adding on my guaranteed one for Dealer peg.
Inushtuk1 says: I thought there might be more love for A-2-3-X. The only hand with a maximum of 14 points. Fourteen points plus 3 average pegs, and 4 more in the crib puts us at 114 with first hand show.
wasa
3017 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:37 AM
I always want to put 5-5 or a 2-3 in my own crib. The flush is a red herring - considered tossing J-Q as I think the A-2-3-4 is the best pegging hand, but damn those torpedoes full speed ahead!
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Tuesday 10:43 AM
Just like yesterday, I find myself almost alone, save for Inushtuk (which makes me feel better). I get that a 2,3 in the crib is [on average]valuable, but the chance for a double run was more alluring. Will also post question in JQT section.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi dgergens. While I wouldn’t necessarily feel better having made the same choice as me; I do think we can *both* be happy to see we made the same choice as glmccuskey. This fellow is a much better player than I am over the board, and he finished 4th in Raleigh last month, in a double elimination format. Very tough to do.
cribbagepogo
3251 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 12:08 PM
A,2,3,4 not suited guaranteed no more that 10 points. Maybe good pegging but I'll take the 2/3 in the crib and chance the pags later. My good friend Bobby Stuart plays this way.
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 1:21 PM
'Mick' Michaelis demonstrated that with A-2-3-4-X-X the 2-3 discard fares better than X-X. But I don't think this takes account of the better pegging of A-2-3-4 and in this case the suited J-Q will of course score better than say 10-K:

A-4-J-Q: 4pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 10¾pts

A-2-3-4: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 8¾pts

Potential:

A-4-J-Q: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/9/10pts with all cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

A-2-3-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8/10pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts.

Pegging:

With 4 close, low cards A-2-3-4 should peg much better than A-4-J-Q if playing Offense.

Position:

We are 3pts short of positional hole but they are 11pts short. I'll play Offense to put ourselves in the best position to hold enough next time.

Summary:

A-4-J-Q starts with 2pts more but A-2-3-4 has very much better potential with guaranteed improvement and 38 cuts for 7-10pts. Also it will peg very much better. The flush is a Ras, red herring. Will A-2-3-4 catch up the 2pts? I think it will so I'll throw the suited J-Q.
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 2:05 PM
At 93*-95 playing a Bold strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W1 %___W2 %
A-2-3-4___8.09+3.80+4.76=16.65____0.6____32.2
A-4-J-Q___6.72+2.43+6.45=15.60____0.1____31.8

Offense_______L1 %___L2 %
A-2-3-4_______0.4____34.7
A-4-J-Q_______0.1____29.7

A-2-3-4 is 1.05pt better for expected averages and slightly better for Win %s. A-4-J-Q is much better for Loss %s but even so I'll select J-Q to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
JQT says: I think the juxtaposition of having this puzzle occur right after yesterday's puzzle, and also my attempt at a 'cute answer, are what caused me to choose the wrong discard today. Even when we know better (and 'we' do : - ) sometimes this kind of bias can bite us (and by 'us' of course I mean 'me').
JQT says: Hopefully, after some sleep, I'll do better tomorrow (also, I believe I composed tomorrow's puzzle, so that might help, too ; - )
Inushtuk1 says: Good night John boy.
Coeurdelion says: Good night Jim Bob!
Inushtuk1 says: What’s goin on? I was asleep. What’s everybody doin?
Ras2829
5153 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 2:05 PM
With opponent t already at hole 95 with a need to deal form 4th street CPZ 95-99, it's off., off., off. for me. As long as n/d doesn't peg backwards, RAS is at a positional disadvantage admittedly. Knowing that I have 12 points after that cut, do need some pegs. Otherwise I might be counting first at 105. Not a good place to be as chances to win from 16 out as non-dealer are 1 of 9. That means I would pair any small card, play the four spot on a X lead.
Ras2829 says: Will ;lay offense to the lead although would not play my four on a 5-6 led.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. So the A on a 5-6 lead to keep the run intact? Or maybe a deuce or trey to keep the Ace for later?
Inushtuk1 says: I’m assuming the lone Ace is not a liability for Dealer. Especially with three more small cards in the hand.
Guest says: BTW a mid cad ;lead requires some cagy thinking with opponent at hole 95 if I expect to peg. If non-dealer had 3-7-8-9, would likely lead the trey and I would pair. Non dealer gets two. We're even and I've got to hold the A-2 intact after that play. So it is with 4-7-8-9 4-5-6-7 - likley lead of the small card believing that could stay even on the pegging. If no small card led, and the lead is mid card got to hope that n/d retained a five with 5-6-7-8, 5-7-8-9, 5-6-7-X. So on a mid card lead will not make the count 10 as that would allow opponent to dump the 5 spot and score a 15-2 while doing so. Want to keep the 3-4 intact in hopes of trapping the five spot for run of three and a go. So my plan going in is will pair a trey or four lead, keeping A-2 intact. If the lead is an 8 or 9, will make the count 11. If a 5, 6 or 7 led will play the Ace, holding 2-3-4 intact. Why would I play the 4 on a a X lead?
Ras2829 says: The Guest comment above is mine - sorry had everything figured out except the log-on.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. I imagine you would play the 4 on an X lead to force the 5 off the play; hopefully forcing another X card for a count of (24). Now you play the 3 for (27) and wait for the GO. And then your 2 and Ace score (30-4).
Ras2829 says: Thanks Inustuk1:: Hope folks will take the time to read as so often making the count 11 has an advantage. With these cards making the count11 virtually destroys the pegging opportunities of the dealer. As you describe the pegging happens most every time dealer is holding 5-X-X-X or 5-5-X-X. I used the term :most every time" as occasionally when non-dealer has two fives, will drop one of them as second card played and dealer scores the run of 3 earlier.
Ras2829 says: Or what happens when non-dealer leads a X pointer from X-X-X-X with the four response from the dealer?