August 9, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by acis1 on ecribbage.com
0-0*  ?
52%
37%
3%
2%
2%
0%
0%
Total votes: 160
dec
6328 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:13 AM
Effective discard with decent lead card the three. Dozen possibility with seven cards. dec
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 3:21 AM
Good one, acis1. First hand pone would dictate offense: Start with 5 vs. 4 points and a hand which has more cuts for improvement over tossing 8-T to dealer. It is up to Hal?
Jazzselke
2570 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 3:40 AM
Good peggers, no sure points or adjoining cards to opponent.
Guest says: CONGRATS on being #10 in the Central Divison for the year! S:)
Guest says: CONGRATS on being #10 in the Central Divison for the year! S:)
Inushtuk1 says: Well done Dan. The standings on the ACC website have not been updated since the 12th of July; but I guess the mysterious S knows something i don’t.
Inushtuk1 says: Well done Dan. The standings on the ACC website have not been updated since the 12th of July; but I guess the mysterious S knows something i don’t.
Guest says: Inushtuk, some of the mystery is because I am a close friend of Aiken's--he posted it yesterday on the ACC Facebook page. Public knowledge lol. Plus Dan is the ACC Statistician, so he knows alllll. lol Oh, and if you come to Grand National, the mystery is over when we meet. S:)
Guest says: Inushtuk, some of the mystery is because I am a close friend of Aiken's--he posted it yesterday on the ACC Facebook page. Public knowledge lol. Plus Dan is the ACC Statistician, so he knows alllll. lol Oh, and if you come to Grand National, the mystery is over when we meet. S:)
Inushtuk1 says: Oh now, you’re just trying to get me to spend the airfare, and a virtual weelk’s worth of hotel fees in Milwaukee. What; are you getting a commission or something? ; - ) A bit too rich for my blood. But next year it’s in North Conway, NH. A far more likely prospect.
Inushtuk1 says: Oh now, you’re just trying to get me to spend the airfare, and a virtual weelk’s worth of hotel fees in Milwaukee. What; are you getting a commission or something? ; - ) A bit too rich for my blood. But next year it’s in North Conway, NH. A far more likely prospect.
Guest says: LOLOL...maybe! all of the directors are my friends. I'm in charge of giving away lovely gift baskets..does that entice you? I know how you feel about the expenses, though as I feel that same way about NH. I can't drive there like I can to this year's. S :)
Guest says: LOLOL...maybe! all of the directors are my friends. I'm in charge of giving away lovely gift baskets..does that entice you? I know how you feel about the expenses, though as I feel that same way about NH. I can't drive there like I can to this year's. S :)
cribbagepogo says: Don't think if it as losing money for a week, think if it as an opportunity to excel and go home with a basket of money. Works for me.
cribbagepogo says: Don't think if it as losing money for a week, think if it as an opportunity to excel and go home with a basket of money. Works for me.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi cp. That’s a good attitude to have.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi cp. That’s a good attitude to have.
Jazzselke says: Thanks!
Jazzselke says: Thanks!
Inushtuk1 says: You’re welcome.
Inushtuk1 says: You’re welcome.
JQT
4137 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:41 AM
Tempting to hold the 8-9-T RUN with the 5 Card, but can it be worth just one extra point to give the main connector PAIR of Treys away?
Guest says: Pear
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: In case you missed my late reply yesterday, that was a very fine puzzle you placed before us.
james500
3896 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Thursday 4:40 AM
Three card eleven:
3(3)-X(13)-3(16)-X(26)-5(31/2).
Gougie00
5703 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 4:44 AM
I dont want to give away the store for meager points. I'll hedge.
Inushtuk1
1465 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 6:02 AM
Hey, I’m not giving away a pair of key connectors two days in a row! That was hard enough on my heart yesterday. But seriously;why give away two points to gain only one here? Both 3-3-5-9 and 5-8-9-10 have a maximum of 12 points. The 5-8-9-10 has only *one* more cut for improvement if my math is correct.

What to lead? The suited 3 from my three-card Magic Eleven? Or the 9? It wasn’t long ago Ras said, when you can hold two or three cards with a value of 5 or less, and can keep an 8,9, or an X-pointer, you should keep the mid-card, all else being equal; and lead that 8 or 9 in preference to the X-pointer. The fact that our three small cards add up to eleven probably trumps that strategy today. But leading the 3 probably ends up with a (31-2) at best. Leading the 9 *might* do slightly better. Thus with Dealer holding X-X-X-X: 9(9)-X(19)-3((22)-GO-3(25-2)-5(30-1). Or if Dealer is holding 5-X-X-X it may go thus: 9(9)-X(19)-3(22)-5(27)-3(30-1)/ X(10)-5(15-2). But I’d probably settle for the suited three lead like the majority here would.

What if the score was 107-110*? Would you dare to keep 3-3-5-8(910); starting with only two points, but the only chance to score the 14 specific points needed to go out with first hand show? Or would you keep 3-3-5-9, which I believe has more cuts for 12, and hope to peg the remaining two?
horus93
1273 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Thursday 10:47 AM
In this position with this hand I would play "cautious offense" and lead the 3. Magic 11 as already pointed out, and most people are more likely to pair your lead early in the game.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Thursday 2:13 PM
I think its between 3-3-5-9 (8-10) and 5-8-9-10 (3-3):

3-3-5-9: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 5.10) = -¾pts

5-8-9-10: 5pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.68) = -1½pts

Potential:

3-3-5-9: Improves with AAAA, 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 7777, 999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 84.8% up to 8/12pts with 33, 4444, 7777, 999 = 13 cuts.

5-8-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999 + 15xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 555, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 16 cuts.

Pegging:

3-3-5-9 should peg better with three low cards and a high card and a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

As First Pone we'll play Offense and try for positional hole of 18pts.

Summary:

3-3-5-9 has a starting value ¾pt more than 5-8-9-10 and although 5-8-9-10 has slightly more cuts for improvemet and more for 8-12pts. As 3-3-5-9 will also peg better and there will be some negative delta with 8-10 as we hold a 9. So I'll go with the 8-10 throw.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 2:16 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs___Crib__Total___W9 %____W10 %
3-3-5-9___6.78+1.57+(-4.62)=3.73____23.9____22.6
3-3-5-10__6.74+1.89+(-5.38)=3.25____24.4____21.9
5-8-9-10__7.76+1.35+(-6.37)=2.74____26.1____21.3

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
3-3-5-9______37.9____51.5
3-3-5-10_____39.9____52.6
5-8-9-10_____42.8____54.1

3-3-5-9 is 0.48pt better than 3-3-5-10 for exprcted averages and 0.99pt better than 5-8-9-10. 5-8-9-10 is slightly better for Win %s but 3-3-5-9 is considerably lower for chances of Losing. So I'll select 8-10 to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the 9 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Pts.
9_____________________1.84
3_____________________1.80
5_____________________1.25
Ras2829
5126 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 2:36 PM
Opening hand of the game it's off, off, off. for me. Will lead the 9 as am concerned with offensive pegging. If choosing a defensive pegging strategy, would have led the 3s. Will take any pegs offered. The 3-card 11 works very well for non-dealer and is a major reason that holding the 5-89-10 is the third best choice.

For those who have followed my comments over the years, you already know that RAS considers Hal, REX, and the Cribbage Prof to be the toughest opponents that I face in live or electronic play. All were designed by a genius by the name of Hal Mueller. It is truly amazing what he has built into these programs. Have been playing 1,000 game series with one of those cribbage tutorial programs for decades (does 20 years fit in that framework?). My initial goal in those series was to win by 30 games. I now shoot for a 70 win margin. Have never reached an edge of 80 games although have ended up with 72-74 wins a few times.

In the present series, we have completed 742 games with alternating deals. Want to share some of that data with you at this point. All games played are played at the Lifemaster level, maximum speed, no errors, and no hints. Of these 742 games, RAS has won 390 (226 as dealer and 164 as non-dealer. The Prof has won 205 as dealer and 147 as non-dealer. So at this point, I am winning 53% of games played. That leaves 47% for the Prof. What else can I tell from these figures? I win 58% of games played when I have the opening deal. and win 42% when not having the opening deal. That 16 point spread is the difference reported by most who have played large number of games in live or electronic play and recorded the results. We each have scored 66 skunk wins. Skunk wins are 3-4 times more likely when having the opening deal.

Although it seems to me that Cribbage Prof has higher-scoring hands than I do, we average 8.3 as dealer and 8.5 as non-dealer. Is that a surprise? No, even in live play I assume my opponent scores more big hands than I do. Not so when I record 1,000 samples. Both those figures are higher than what De Lynn Colvert assigns as hand size for dealer and non-delaer (8.1 and 7.9 respectively). RAS holds flushes 15% more frequently than does the Prof.

Pegging I match the Prof as dealer and we average 3.5 pegs per deal. As non-dealer , RAS consistently out-pegs the Prof. In this series of 742 games, the Prof averages 2.1 pegs as non-dealer and RAS scores 2.3. Where do the differences lie? I score 20% more 15-2’s and 10% more 31-2’s. Ironically it would seem if I am scoring more 15-2’s, it would seem that I would give up more three card runs to opponent in the pegging. Not so and I peg runs 20% more frequently than does the Prof and have 20% more points from runs than does the Prof.
Ras2829 says: If you have difficulty processing any of this information, know that I consider no questions to be frivolous. Email raswino29@outlook.com any old time. Please limit your questions to cribbage. Don't consider myself an expert in marriage counseling though married for 58 years. I've found cribbage a much easier learning process.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Interesting and instructive that both you and the Prof are leading the 9 and ignoring the Magic 11.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Yup - the potential to score runs outweighs that frequent 31-2 by playing the 3-card 11. It's likely only a fraction of a point favoring that direction. Well HalscribCLX figures the 9 is .04 better than he lead of the trey.
Inushtuk1 says: Yup.
Ras2829 says: Dose anybody know who acis1 on ecribbage.com is? Last month 20 puzzles were submitted under that name. As moderator I think I eliminated 16 of them. Ones remaining are good as is this puzzle. September upcoming, 19 of 30 days are acis1 submissions. So suspect there'll be about five of those remaining at a superficial glance. Use the same eye in judging puzzle quality for acis1 as do other submissions. Like to see a wide variety of folks submitting puzzles as that adds diversity and is likely to provide a broader learning experience for more individuals at all levels of ability and understanding of the game. Use the same eye on all submissions and don't assume automatically that those submitted from the ecribbage source are of poor quality. With 19 of 30 days in September offering submissions from acis1, am sure that my editor's pen will be tapping the delete button a bunch of times. BTW I often delete my puzzles when they get bunched up and delete to limit to two weekly. Would like to get down to one weekly. Will let you know if openings occur in the September listings. The program does not automatically move puzzles up to fill vacant days. So you'll have a chance to submit puzzles in the final days of August to fill September openings. Suspect will again eliminate 12-14 acis1 puzzles opening up some spaces. I don't take a serious look at the month until one week prior to the end of the current month.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. If I’m not mistaken, acis 1 is spin121’s moniker on ecribbage.