August 10, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
45*-58  ?
50%
20%
18%
2%
2%
2%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 139

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JQT
2439 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Friday 3:21 AM
A-A might also do well, but even one Ace works well with 6-7-8, and a 5 Card always spices up our Crib.
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dec
4224 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Friday 3:37 AM
Peggers and fifteens to fill with a nickel in the crib. Offense. dec
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Rosemarie44
982 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Friday 4:45 AM
Nice one james500. Prefer a 5 in the crib. This hand has the probability for a higher maximum of 16 points. Still drawn to tossing A-A and keeping the hand that increases with every cut even though th maximum is 14 points.
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Gougie00
3663 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 5:08 AM
Baa-Baa. Following the herd today. Nice cut. I feel smart for some reason.
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james500
1922 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Friday 5:45 AM
A-A, As-5 or Ad-8 all seem reasonable options here. I'll try A-6-7-8 (A-8) with its escape card if needed, and potential 6-7 five card trap for the second time around:

X(10)-8(18)-X(28)-A(29)-go/1,
X(10)-7(17)-5(22)-6(28/2+1).
Reply
Jazzselke
1079 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Friday 5:45 AM
What Rosemarie says. Actually I am never crazy about A5 or AA; in this case I would prefer the A5.But A5 is my least favorite combination with a 5-spot.
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glmccuskey
2796 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Friday 6:04 AM
With non dealer at 58 will have to peg carefully.
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wasa
982 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Friday 6:50 AM
I agree with all of the above. I want the 5 in my crib.
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Inushtuk1
689 votes

Joined: July 2016

Friday 8:45 AM
Me too. And a possible crib flush.

We will be Pone beyond our goal of 59/60. Defense to the lead.

Pone would keep the flush though.
Reply
Hillchem
1082 votes

Joined: April 2015

   
Friday 10:31 AM
I kept the black ace because I thought I would be more likely to fake a flush in hand than to get a crib flush.
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Ras2829
3154 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Friday 1:59 PM
Based on my scant empirical data, holding the longer run ought to have a greater value by about .4 of a point with the flush pulling up in third spot. Opponent is likely to be dealing from the middle of nowhere if picks up the non-dealer average of 9-10 points. With a need to deal from 2nd street CPZ 43-47, I'm right in the middle of the zone and would like to be around the corner to deal. With the 8 cut for 14 points, a known two in the crib, and that guaranteed dealer peg, know RAS will be at minimum of 62. So after thinking def. def., will upshift to optimal pegging strategy. Who knows, just might be able to reach 65-66.
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Coeurdelion
3630 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 2:50 PM
I think its between 5-6-7-8 (A-A), A-6-7-8 (AS-5) and AS-5-6-7 (A-8):

5-6-7-8: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 11¼pts

A-6-7-8: 7pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.45) = 12½pts

AS-5-6-7: 7pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.80) = 10¾pts

Potential:

5-6-7-8: Improves with AA, 2222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/10/12/14pts with 2222, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 24 cuts.

A-6-7-8: Improves with AA, 2222, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 10/13/14/16pts with AA, 2222, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 19 cuts.

AS-5-6-7: Improves with AA, 2222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 10/11/12/14pts with AA, 2222, 4444, 555, 666, 888, 9999 = 23 cuts. Plus 9 spades for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pts.

Pegging:

The flush will peg well and A-6-7-8 and 5-6-7-8.

Position:

We're in the 2nd street CPZ but opponent only needs 12pts to reach 3rd street positional hole so I'll play Defense to try to hold them back.

Summary:

The flush has good potential with guaranteed improvement and 23 cuts for 10-14pts but it has a ½/1¾pts lower starting value. 5-6-7-8 also has guaranteed improvement and 24 cuts 9-14pts but starts with 1¼pts less than A-6-7-8. So although A-6-7-8 only has 22 cuts for improvement it has the best maximum at 16pts and 19 cuts for 10-16pts. We often talk about negative delta but in this case as we do not see any tenth cards dealt to us or 9s then I think there will be some positive delta to the A-5 discard and I'll go with this.
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HalscribCLX
3388 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Friday 3:07 PM
At 45*-58 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
A-6-7-8___9.39+(-2.11)+5.44=12.72____22.6____32.6
5-6-7-8___9.65+(-2.15)+5.16=12.66____23.5____32.5
AS-5-6-7_10.80+(-1.93)+3.44=12.31____21.5____31.0
A-A-6-8___7.80+(-2.20)+5.91=11.51____18.7____28.6

Defense_______L5 %____L6 %
A-6-7-8_______42.6____52.6
5-6-7-8_______43.8____52.6
AS-5-6-7______44.7____54.7
A-A-6-8_______43.6____57.5

A-6-7-8 is best by 0.06pt and is slightly best for Loss %s. 5-6-7-8 is slightly best for Win %s and both of these take account of the critical board position. As I'm recommending a Defense strategy I'll select AS-5 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play a Safe strategy to the lead.
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