August 16, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
109-105*  ?
52%
19%
14%
7%
2%
1%
1%
1%
Total votes: 178
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:33 AM
Due to the score, we need to obtain the Maximum Hand here, regardless of what we throw over the board.

We might even consider Toss 9-9 since the Ten Card is "more unique" (we were only dealt one of these, and therefore another Ten is slightly more likely to be the Cut).

But it's a tough case to make to hold 4-5-6-T, so I'll resort to Toss 9-T, which should also allow us to retain our best hand.

After the excellent Cut, I'd like to minimize Dealer pegging simply to increase the number of spread points by which we win, so I'll lead the 4 Card and Play Off.
Guest says: As aliways I keep enjoying and learnning from your remarks JQT. I see you preffer to rettain the maximum hand and lead the 4 card, but if opponnent pair it with another 4 I think you have no good answer, for that reason I preffer to rettain 5-6-9-9 and intend to lead the 9C and than if the opp. played 6 for 15-2 I paired it with my 6 and if I got lucky and he pired it with his 9 I play my 2nd 9 for pair royal and almost ensure my win because we count first. What do you think?
JQT says: Needing a Dozen Points to win, we MUST retain our BEST hand. Every extra point will boost our odds of winning here tremendously. Ten Points as Pone is average, so we MUST exceed this by Two Points (or an additional 20%) else we lose. As far as pegging goes: once we have a Cut that places us beyond the Finish Line, our ONLY concern is to MINIMIZE Pegging. What is CRUCIAL here is that the Dealer has NO IDEA that we don't need to peg, a 'secret' we would like to keep for as long as possible. Dealer should therefore be quite highly motivated to keep overall pegging to a minimum. We want to use this to our advantage. Leading a 5 Card (or even a Ten, if we held it) "tips off" the Dealer that we MAY not need to peg, and this would probably only serve to help the Dealer reduce the spread points by which we win!
JQT says: In summary: there are times we NEED to peg, but WISH that Our Opponent did not know this, and; there are times when we DO NOT NEED to peg, and we also WISH that Our Opponent also did not know this. Today, it is the latter situation.
JQT says: The FLUSH incidentally is a rather unique arrangement today, as it contains two sets of "touching" cards. This FLUSH might allow us to 'hedge' and play either Offense OR Defense today, but I just cannot stomach giving those Two Points away in the form of 6-9. In the end however, I believe that today's puzzle and its solution will be determined by whether we should play Offense ... or Defence. Remember: if both players come up just one or two points shy, it will be US as the Next Dealer who would have a distinct advantage. Thus, as our Guest Above indicates, cases can indeed be made for either 5-6-9-9 or the FLUSH. And even Toss 9-9 can be justified if we adopt a strictly Offensive posture. But I'll stick with 4-5-6-9 just by a thread!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi JQT. The small card lead might also tip off the Dealer that we have enough. Leading the 9 would indicate that we are fishing, and Dealer would lay off that 9, no?
Ras2829 says: Must have made this too easy today. Already 4-5-6-9 is at 54%. Great commentary above! Thanks JQT for sharing your knowledge and insights. Will post after the dust has settled this day.
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 4:17 AM
Can not afford to puddy foot around so we keep peggers and plenty of cut opportunities. Now we an afford to play defense on the pegging to max the spread. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 4:29 AM
Late start this morning. Chose 9-T. Has more cuts for improvement. Agree with others comments.
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Thursday 4:45 AM
The flush is helped by all bar 777, 4569 is helped by all bar 8888. 4569 is worth a point more initially though.

5 lead just because I can. Breaks up my hand too, with no touching cards remaining.
JQT says: Lots of discussion (above in my entry) about what to lead today. Normally I would agree that by leading a 5 Card, we might actually reduce Dealer Pegging. Before the Cut, both Dealer AND Pone know that Pone requires an above-average hand in order to win, and both players also know that the Dealer will otherwise probably go out, even without Dealer pegging. However, at the given score today, after we discard 9-T and see the 5 Card Cut, as Pone we know that no pegging is required for us to win. Every card played reveals information, and normally, a 5 Card Lead indicates that Pone is possibly desperate to peg two or three, or otherwise has an abundance of 5 Cards. However, with a 5 Card Cut, this 5 Card Lead tends ti indicate to the Dealer that we have STRENGTH. From this position, regardless of what the Dealer holds, as soon as the Dealer can ascertain that we may be going out as Pone, the Dealer only stands to gain by Maximum Pegging. Therefore, why "tip" our hand and allow the Dealer to possibly just peg as much as possible from the start? Why win by Ten Holes when we might have easily won by Twelve or Fourteen Holes? This is an interesting juncture as we lead here as Pone, because ONLY WE KNOW (so far) that we have enough to go out. And as I stressed earlier, the given information from Dealer's perspective is almost with certainty to Play Off here. Why "bait" a fish that we've essentially already caught? I am of course asking, and not knowing for sure, since as we all know, a 5 Card Lead does tend to break up our hand, which is usually desireable under similar circumstances. But after a 5 Card is Cut, don't we tend to shorten the time at which the Dealer will see that there's no hope, and thus prompt her/him to peg all he/she can? Very interesting dilemma! Winning a game is always nice, but REDUCING SPREAD POINTS is how a player learns to go home with more money than when they left!
james500 says: Hi John. Thank you for taking the time to respond so thoroughly to my comment, and for writing so extensively elsewhere today. I'll admit that my choice to lead the 5, "just because I can", could appear arrogant to Dealer, (and people visiting this site), spurring them on to peg more aggressively. A bit more humility may well serve me better in the long run, in terms of spread, as you suggest.
wasa
3018 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Thursday 5:41 AM
Go for the win. Nice cut. Smile & wave!
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 6:31 AM
4569 preferred over 45610 because it is helped by the 2 cut. If we needed peg points, the lead of the 9 might do the trick.
glmccuskey
4101 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Thursday 6:32 AM
Looks like we all agree.
Guest says: I didn't....went with the 10. Mr Jazz made me see it a different way. S :)
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 7:23 AM
The cut makes the strategy a moot point. If I had to worry about pegging out, I would have led the 10 and tried to muster points with the 4-5-6. Since the 5 was cut, I bleed my hand by leading the 5, and I'll make the count 21 with the 6. "Be gone, you have no power here."

The best is that look in the opponents face when you lead a 5 down in this position. The crestfallen look of "Oh no, he already has enough."

First day in over a week without rain in the forecast. The grass is up to my ankles.

Good luck to anyone playing in the "all-star" game tomorrow in Sturbridge. See you tomorrow.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Greg. I would have loved to have played in the C room at that tourney. But I’m playing two separate lawn bowling tournaments this week-end. See you in September and best of luck.
Gougie00 says: I am playing on Friday. The Peer tournament can be an ordeal because many of the players in the "C" are both bad players and slow as molasses. You dont learn much from playing bad players except patience.
Inushtuk1 says: So are you playing Saturday as well; or just the Canadian Doubles on Friday night? I tried that format for the first time in Bangor last month. Discovered I suck at it.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Thursday 8:42 AM
I thought it could peg better and with only a .1 difference in hand avg.
JQT says: For offensive elegance, I do like this hand quite a bit. For every 9 Card we might Cut to help 4-5-6-9, we have 50% more Ten Cards "T" that similarly help 4-5-6-T. And yet the 9 Card 'Kicker' ought to help us peg more, should it not? As Pone, it's not certain. That does it for Offense Analysis: what about Defense (which only the Mystery Guest in my early vote above has chosen)? Defensive choices also include the FLUSH. Since we do need 20% above the Ten Point Average Hand, a case can be made today to 'balk' the Dealer's Crib with say Toss 4-T and look to peg out and WIN as Next Dealer. This takes extreme patience, but it could work. I opted NOT to do either of those Defensive Discards, but from just a few holes further away, say about Hole 107 or 108, it would fall under my RADAR.
Inushtuk1
1487 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 11:43 AM
I would have kept that flush were it not for the (6-9) toss. I’m glad I didn’t.

Lead the 4.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Thursday 12:26 PM
I think its between 4-5-6-9C (9-10), 5-6-9-9 (4-10) and perhaps the flush is also worth looking at:

4-5-6-9C: 7pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = +1¾pts

5-6-9-9: 6pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.53) = +1½pts

4-5-9C-10: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.26) = -¼pt

Potential:

4-5-6-9C: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 99 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, 99 = 11 cuts.

5-6-9-9: Improves with AAAA, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 99 + 15xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 9/10/11/12pts with AAAA, 444, 666, 7777, 99 = 16 cuts.

4-5-9C-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 8888, 99 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 9/10/13pts with AAAA, 3333, 555, 666, 8888, 101010, JJJJ = 25 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

Pegging:

4-5-6-9 should peg well but also the flush and it weill be hard to read.

Position:

We need 12pts to go out. 2pts above average so I'll play Offense unless of course the cut gives me enough anyway.

Summary:

Both the flush and 4-5-6-9 have 42 cuts for improvement but 4-5-6-9 has a starting value of 2pts more than the flush. It might be thought that we needn't worry about what we put in the crib in this position but there is a good chance this game will go to another deal and I'm loathe to put 6-9 in opponent's box. So I'll throw the unsuited 9-10.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 2:01 PM
At 109-105* playing an Offense styrategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___Win %___Loss %
5-6-9-9___8.37+1.48+(-4.35)=5.50____36.0____36.5
4-5-6-9C__9.33+1.26+(-5.17)=5.42____55.2____44.8
4-5-9C-10_9.13+1.72+(-5.64)=5.21____57.0____43.0

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs=Total
4-5-9C-10_9.13+1.72=10.85
4-5-6-9C__9.33+1.26=10.59
5-6-9-9___8.37+1.48= 9.85

5-6-9-9 has the best expected average by 0.08pt over 4-5-6-9 and 0.29pt over the flush. However the flush is appreciably better for Win %s. Ignoring the crib the flush is 0.26pt better than 4-5-6-9. So as the Win %s take account of the critical board position I'll select 6-9H to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the 9 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Pts.
9__________________1.83
10_________________1.74
5__________________1.04
4__________________1.03
Gougie00 says: Surprising. I saw the flush and dismissed.
Inushtuk1 says: Hmmm.
JQT says: I stumbled onto the fact that the FLUSH was a potential way to hedge and play Defense OR Offense, but I think james500 nearly nailed it, as he points out that only three 7 Cards do NOT help improve the FLUSH today. And Toss 6-9 is not really that risky over the board, so Halscrib shows us that the numbers work. As I've frequently said in similar endgame, sometimes we don't need the MOST points, we need "x" points. If we assume average pegging, then we likely need a hand that can solidly deliver about Ten Points. And the FLUSH just squeaks through! Who knows where RAS digs up these mind-numbing puzzles!
JQT says: And perhaps HalscribCLX could maybe tell us: if we DID hold 4-5-6-9 and Cut the 5 Card, what would the computer lead???
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:14 PM
If I had kept 4-5-6-9C and the 5H is cut I'll lead the 4 and play Defense:

Lead____________Dealer's Pegging Pts
4____________________(-2.61)
9____________________(-2.87)
6____________________(-2.96)
5____________________(-3.32)
Inushtuk1 says: Ask and ye shall receive.
JQT says: Oh shoot, I should have also asked for Halscrib to construct flr Christmas a Crib Prof Self-Extracting File for Windows 10 (a la the 2012 REX File ... the one that unpacks and works so well)!
JQT says: * for Christmas, that should say ... if it could be done, I think it could sell at $100 pre-order, and ship all once enough have been ordered...