August 18, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
97*-108  ?
70%
24%
2%
2%
0%
Total votes: 128
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:16 AM
Nothing against Toss 7-8, but in our Own Crib, Toss 2-3 is as good or better.

But more importantly I think is that with Pone only needing a Baker's Dozen, methinks the FLUSH ought to be safer during the pegging.
JQT says: Very difficult puzzle, james500! Because while 2-3 may indeed yield a slightly higher Crib than 7-8 (and this could even be debated by some...), the Double RUN would surely produce a significantly higher hand. And it sure would be nice to finish this game at the completion of THIS DEAL! But 24 points is a long reach for us, and therefore some careful pegging could rule the day here.
JQT says: Very difficult puzzle, james500! Because while 2-3 may indeed yield a slightly higher Crib than 7-8 (and this could even be debated by some...), the Double RUN would surely produce a significantly higher hand. And it sure would be nice to finish this game at the completion of THIS DEAL! But 24 points is a long reach for us, and therefore some careful pegging could rule the day here.
JQT says: Very difficult puzzle, james500! Because while 2-3 may indeed yield a slightly higher Crib than 7-8 (and this could even be debated by some...), the Double RUN would surely produce a significantly higher hand. And it sure would be nice to finish this game at the completion of THIS DEAL! But 24 points is a long reach for us, and therefore some careful pegging could rule the day here.
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:32 AM
*A double run worth keeping, or not?
*As John says above, 3478 should be a safer pegger due to a wider spread of cards.
*7-4 and 3-8 elevens should Pone have the corresponding hand.
Inushtuk1 says: Very good puzzle James. And difficult to know how to peg this hand.
Inushtuk1
1488 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:46 AM
Remember the other day I talked myself out of keeping the “much superior hand.” Well; same thing today. Safety in numbers? And I may just need that (30-3) play at the end of the first play series.

Yes, with only 13 known points it’s cautious offense for me, and a 4 on any X-card lead.
Inushtuk1 says: Best wishes in Sturbridge, MA.
JQT says: Your mother plays Cribbage, too? Oh, you probably meant MAssachusetts. Now I feel silly. ; × )
Inushtuk1 says: Good one John.
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:13 AM
If I want a better chance on a next hand I like to use that defensive eleven to keep opponent shorter. Plus that 2-3 in the crib on fourth seems to add up good. dec
JQT says: Did you sleep through your 5 a.m. alarm? Good points you've made above. Gonna be a real horse race today, I think...
Guest says: This week I had a couple of interesting end games one I choose an offensive approach and with being dealer I pegged five and the other one with pone needing seven I played an "eleven defensive" approach and kept them in the deadhole and won. I believe in the addum that the close games are ones that make a big difference on an overall winning approach. I like my choice today. dec
glmccuskey
4102 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Saturday 4:38 AM
i didn’t think this was even close. Defense to the lead.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 4:46 AM
I agree with those who chose the Flush for all the reasons mentioned.
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:59 AM
I hate tossing the 78, but I need the points. Lead the 3, and I hope the dealer replies with an 8.
Guest says: It’s your crib.
Gougie00 says: Oops, nice call huh? I am still holding the double run.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 3:20 PM
2-3D or 7-8?:

3C-4-7-8: 8pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 14¾pts

2-3-3-4: 8pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 14½pts

Potential:

3C-4-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 11/12/13/14pts with 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 888, 9999 = 24 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 00.20pt.

2-3-3-4: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 12/16/17pts with 222, 33, 444, 5555, 6666, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 39 cuts.

Pegging:

Both hands should peg well and the flush will be had to read and has magic elevens.

Position:

Pone only needs 13pts to score out so I'll play Defense to hold them back.

Summary:

The flush starts with ¼pt more but 2-3-3-4 has guaranteed improwvement and 39 cuts for 12-17pts. The flush may peg better Defensively but even so I'll throw the 7-8.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:30 PM
At 97*-108 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W1 %____W2 %
2-3-3-4___12.43+(-2.37)+6.65=16.71____27.4____54.0
3C-4-7-8__10.74+(-2.04)+6.67=15.37____14.8____54.1

Defense_______L1 %____L2 %
2-3-3-4_______32.3____36.4
3C-4-7-8______26.9____38.9

2-3-3-4 is 1.34pt better for expected averages and is very much better for Win %s although the flush is somewhat better for Loss %s. So I'll select 7-8 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.
Inushtuk1 says: What will you dump on an X-card lead?
Inushtuk1 says: Perhaps I should have assumed I had more than 2 in the crib, and plunked down my 2 on an X-card lead. The 2 is easier to trap than my 4. Or I might have dumped my 3c. It’s less likely to be paired. I leave the question open to Hal, and anyone else that might wish to chime in.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: With opponent 13 points out and dealing the upcoming hand, don't believe would lead a X- card if holding A-4 or 2-3 or some similar combination with X-pointers. The four is a good response to a X lead, given that, and it will allow me to play my 3-3 back to back for 3 unanswered pegs. That's my take on it!
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks for your take on it, here; and more extensively below.
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 6:13 PM
Like the double run (all small cards here) and based on my scant empirical data, there is only .25 hundredths difference in - pegs. This hand plays well on X-point leads and does pretty well on mid cards as well. If X lead, will play the four, forcing a five off the play. Will play 3C on 6-7-8-9 if led. If a five is led, would play the deuce (8 spot in crib). If an Ace is led, would play 3C. If a deuce is led, would play the four spot. If a trey is led, would pair. If a four spot is led, will dump the deuce. Even though cards are tightly bunched, opponent is likely to play cards unlike these since I have two key connectors (3-3)in this run of small cards. Know that I have dealer guaranteed peg, 10 points in hand, and a minimum of two points in crib. That puts me at 110. Although likely to have 5-7 in crib with the typical mid card/X-pointer to my crib (9-K, 9-Q, 6-K, 6-Q, 6-10, 8-K, 8-Q, or even 7-K, 7-Q, or 7-10). Have got two huge challenges. One is that RAS needs some pegs if crib does not produce 5 points or more. Besides that I do not want opponent to have the deal any closer than 116. That means that I must limit non[-dealer to 8 holes (pegs and hand score). What are chances of doing that? That's 1 to 2.5 not in my favor. Nine points for non-dealer is 50/50 with pone at 117 with the upcoming pegging advantage as dealer. Cribbage is a game of many challenges and that feature is a major contributor to the wonder of this game.