August 19, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
70*-83  ?
37%
35%
13%
3%
3%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 128
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:14 AM
Trailing by more than a dozen, but I like the fact that I am Dealer at Hole 70!

The 3-4-5 Run is hopeful, but when I have a 5 Card as the Dealer, I look for ways to get that said 5 Card into my Crib.

And lo and behold, I've once again done it!
JQT says: With that lovely Ace Cut, I'll no doubt be hitting my mark, so the next goal here will be to check Pone's pegging and try to prevent Pone from reaching too far onto Fourth Street. I'll respond to any lead other than a 6 Card with one of my 7 Cards, and generally Play Off.
JQT says: That is ... any lead other than a 6 OR A 9 Card...
JQT says: We shall become Next Non Dealer at or beyond Hole 85 here, so in spite of the apparent differential in the score, we probably have everything to gain by adopting a strictly *Defensive* Pegging Posture today.
JQT says: Also, note how "Safety in Numbers" with three 7 Cards works toward this goal of Pegging Defensively. That is why the 3-4-5-7 hand, which is probably better in terms of pure potential, is likely inferior in this positional endgame struggle. We wish to MINIMIZE the absolute value of Pone's actual pegging in order to establish and possibly maintain our positional superiority.
JQT says: I suddenly seemed to have gotten a wee bit wordy this morning: usually, I sneak a shot of Whiskey into my morning Coffee, but sometimes ... oops ... the two ingredients get combined in an out-of-order fashion, and; well ... I think you get the general gist of the idea here. Solidly sticking with my decisions, however!
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 3:34 AM
Tough call! Tossing 7-7 has more cuts for improvement at a higher maximum.
Guest says: I made an error in my analysis as the aces increased the hand to 12 points. Rosemarie44..
Ras2829 says: Hi Rosemarie44: And if you cut the trey with these cards, you have a whoppi'n 14!
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:38 AM
When I got on the first choice was mad... so.. I researched some hand averages and pegging numbers.. yep this one has the best overall.. now lets see if the bot agrees with the total offensive approach here... dec
dec says: m a d e was the word although I am not gettin up as early as I use too... dec
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 4:28 AM
3-4-5-7(7-7) will be helped by all cuts bar a 9. With so many sevens out of circulation, maybe Pone will have a "useless" 8 in their hand to discard? Fine by me.
With 4 differently ranked cards, I have greater "manoeuvrability" in the pegging.
Ras2829 says: Hi james500: Fine puzzle. More later - keep 'em coming!
Inushtuk1
1481 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 4:48 AM
I agree with JQT, despite the coffee in his whiskey. Get the under-rated two star toss of (4-5) in the crib.

Perhaps the run is *slightly* safer; but not by much. Not enough to justify keeping a lower expected average. Yes, a 7 on anything except a 6 or a 9.
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 5:04 AM
Interesting puzzle. I want to keep those 777 together. The best toss for my crib is the 45. Pleasurable cut. With 777 there will either be alot of pegging or none.

My goal is to reach hole 90 and there is a good shot of that. I think optimal (scavenger) pegging?
glmccuskey
4095 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Sunday 6:45 AM
Maybe my opponent will have a eight that they don’t need because I have all the sevens.
Ras2829 says: Hi glmccuskey: That deck of cards is a great leveler. With 12 cards in use and 13 cards in denominations, wouldn't be that unusual for opponent to toss 6-8, likely not of use in n/d hand with your holding 7-7-7.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 1:25 PM
I think its between 3-4-5-7 (7-7) and 3-7-7-7 (4-5):

3-4-5-7: 5pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.92) = 10¾pts

3-7-7-7: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 12½pts

Potential:

3-4-5-7: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7, 8888 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 9/12/14pts with 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7, 8888 = 18 cuts.

3-7-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 333, 555, 7, 8888 = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 12pts with AAAA, 555, 7, 8888 = 12 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 3-4-5-7 will peg best playing Offense and 3-7-7-7 if playing Defense.

Position:

We're at the positional hole and Pone is 3pts short of where they'd like to be. So I'll play Defense to try to keep them short.

Summary:

3-7-7-7 starts with 1¾pts more than 3-4-5-7 but 3-4-5-7 has very much better potential with more cuts and a better maximum. Will it catch up the 1¾pts? With the 7-7 discard there will be some negative delta as we retain another 7 therefore overall I don't think it will. So I'll throw the 4-5.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 2:04 PM
At 70*-83 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
3-7-7-7___7.70+(-2.22)+6.55=12.03____11.6____30.8
3-4-5-7___8.24+(-2.09)+5.60=11.75____14.4____29.2
5-7-7-7___9.17+(-2.30)+4.72=11.59____12.5____30.2
4-7-7-7___7.70+(-2.09)+5.60=11.21_____9.7____28.3

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
3-7-7-7_______33.7____58.5
3-4-5-7_______40.7____60.9
5-7-7-7_______35.5____59.2
4-7-7-7_______33.8____61.4

3-7-7-7 is best for expected averages by 0.38pt and although 3-4-5-7 is slightly best for Win %s 3-7-7-7 is smuch lower for Loss %s. Both of these take account of the board position so I'll decide based on the expected averages and the Loss %s especially as I'm recommending Defense. So I'll select 4-5 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
james500 says: Hiya. Interesting to see that 3-5-7-7 (4-7s) hasn't made the top four. Admittedly 4-7 is a poor discard, but I don't think that 3-5-7-7 is too bad a hand. If possible, can you show the stats for this hand?
cribbagepogo
3250 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 2:07 PM
Great and real life puzzle. I need all I can get so want the 3/4 next to each other and to fill in the 6 for 15. Still not too bad off with 12 in hand.
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:28 PM
The key here is are you choosing to limit opponent movement down the board? If so, 3-7-7-7 is the defensive choice and has the greater combined value not because it pegs better defensively. The reason is that 4-5 to own crib has much higher average than does the pair of sevens. The 4-5 or 7-7 assures two points as a minimum to the crib. Ah, there's the rub! The 4-5 scores two points to own crib 6.386% and the 7-7 scores two points 22.011% This is reflected in their averages and ranking. With 4-5 at 6.534 (642) 8/91 and 7-7 with average of 5.873(1,372) 12/91, the choice becomes clearer. Would not bother with 3-4 as discard as it is dead on the upper end, an particularly so with retaining a five spot in hand. The 3-4 averages 5.129 (1,691) 27/91 and scores two or less points 31.578%. That's nearly 1/3. Now if you're really convinced to play offense, then 3-4-5-7 with 7-7 just might be the way to go.
Ras2829 says: BTW if you would like to see discarding profiles for 3-4 and 6-7, which are nearly identical for the same reason (no help on the 5 end), email raswino29@outlook.com any old time.