September 14, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by acis1 on ecribbage.com
30-29*  ?
58%
31%
4%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 146

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JQT
2470 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Friday 3:01 AM
It might look like that Ace could help us today, but if we just examine the case of a 5 Card Cut, the Jack could actually give our hand a greater boost!

And since a 5 Card Cut could really help the Opponent's Crib if it had two Face Cards, I am more inclined to pitch A-Q here.

The fact is, the Ace not only would add little to our potential hand, at best pushing us up to Eight or Nine Points, but it may also prove to be a pegging liability.

At the given score, there is virtually no way that Ace is going to push us all the way to Hole 44, so we are much better off here discarding a bit defensively.

I'll lead the Deuce.
Reply
Rosemarie44
1013 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Friday 3:10 AM
Agree with JQT's reasoning for tossing A-Q with dealer right next to us on the board. Also do not see that we can get to hole 44 this hand.
Reply
james500
1953 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Friday 3:34 AM
The 2-6-7 fifteen are the only points in this hand, so those three cards will be kept. J-Q to my opponent must be the most dangerous discard of what's left, so it'll be A-X instead. The Jack is more valuable than the Queen, so by a process of elimination, I'll choose Q-A as my discard.

Maybe J(10)-5(15/2)-7(22)-go-6(28/3)-2(30/1) in the pegging? 4 pegs plus the 8 in hand gets me to 42.
Reply
dec
4258 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Friday 3:55 AM
Cutting for an eight or considering there are still fourteen face cards in the deck? I lean on the latter more. Deucy loosey. dec
Reply
Gougie00
3699 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 4:10 AM
GO wide? Everyone knows how to play the double runs. Crummy hands like this are a bigger challenge. Lead the 2
Reply
glmccuskey
2821 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Friday 4:40 AM
It’s all out offense so I’ll keep the peggera. Nice cut. Lead the ace and take whatever pegs you can get.
Reply
zeke76
87 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Friday 4:55 AM
Wanted to keep the three black cards. The A-2 doesn't do as much for us (1 ended run) as the J-Q would do for the opponent's crib (2 ended run). I'm guessing the expected value of the J getting nobs is higher than the expected value of a 5 point crib flush given we are throwing two diamonds, but I didn't do the math on that.
Reply
Ras2829
3186 votes

Joined: November 2008

Friday 5:24 AM
The question the submitter had might be: "Is holding A-2-6-7, discarding J-Q to opponent the thing to do in this position?" The answer is an emphatic "no". Toss the A-Q her and other places on the board as well. Might only hold the A-2-6-7 when it appeared that was the only way you could win the game either with first count or as dealer with a need to peg for a win. The rest has been said by others who have posted.
Reply
Ras2829
3186 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Friday 5:25 AM
Get the picture?
Reply
Jazzselke
1102 votes

Joined: March 2009

Friday 5:34 AM
Sometimes you just have to be patient.
Reply
dgergens
189 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Friday 10:15 AM
What James said is pretty much my thought process. I don't know positional strategy, so JQT's consideration, that that Ace is not going to push us all the way to Hole 44, is lost on me.
Reply
JRCeagle78
563 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Friday 1:20 PM
On hindsight, the Ace would have given the pone another 2 points. Is it worth the risk tossing J-Q? HECK NO ! A 5 cut would have been disastrous. As pone, the best chance of blanking the crib is Q-A.
Reply
Coeurdelion
3659 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 2:44 PM
2-6-7-J (A-Q) seems the most likely choice cut is it worth risking J-Q to retain the A for pegging and connecting with the 2:

2-6-7-J: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.33) = -2½pts

A-2-6-7: 2pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.46) = -3¾pts

Potential:

2-6-7-J: Improves with 222, 3333, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999, JJJ = 28 cuts = 60.9% up to 6/7pts with 222, 5555, 666, 777, 8888 = 17 cuts. Plus 12 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

A-2-6-7: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 = 28 cuts = 60.9% up to 5/6/8/9pts with AAA, 222, 3333, 5555, 666, 777, 8888

Pegging:

A-2-6-7 should peg better than 2-6-7-J playing Offense. 2-6-7-J may peg better playing Defense.

Position:

We need 14pts to reach 2nd street positional hole so I'll play Offense to try to achieve this.

Summary:

2-6-7-J has a starting value 1¼pts higher than A-2-6-7 and both have the same number of cuts for improvement. A-2-6-7 has more cuts for 5-9pts and 10 of these cuts are for 8/9pts (666, 777, 8888). 2-6-7-J also has the benefit of the J. Despite the advantages of A-2-6-7 I don't think it will make up the difference so I'll throw A-Q.
Reply
HalscribCLX
3417 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Friday 3:17 PM
At 30-29* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W7 %____W8 %
2-6-7-J___4.39+1.09+(-4.40)=1.08____24.7____18.5
A-2-6-7___4.78+2.00+(-5.90)=0.88____28.4____19.0

Offense______L7 %____L8 %
2-6-7-J______46.6____60.2
A-2-6-7______50.4____60.0

2-6-7-J is better for expected averages by 0.20pt and although A-2-6-7 is much better for Win %s its much worse for Loss %s. As its early in the game I'll decide on expected averages and select A-Q to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead the J and play Offense:

Lead_______Our Pegging Pts.
J_______________1.37
7_______________1.16
2_______________1.01
6_______________0.95
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