September 15, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
72*-84  ?
51%
22%
9%
8%
5%
0%
0%
Total votes: 134
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:16 AM
I tend to think they will go defensive in our crib so go for nine this way and after cut we may have to go offensive in the pegging. dec
Gougie00 says: Happy Birthday.
Rosemarie44 says: Happy Birthday dec.
Inushtuk1 says: Have a great B’day Dan. And for your birthday, may I suggest you treat yourself to a trip to Milwaukee next week. ; - )
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:19 AM
With X-9-4-2 you have both an eleven and a sixteen:
X(10)-2(12)-X(22)-9(31/2) or,
X(10)-2(12)-5(17)-X(27)-go-4(31/2).

But I prefer to keep the four points in hand, and put the close 2-4 in my crib. Most cuts will help somewhere, but 8d is not one of them.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:57 AM
I really didn't like any of the choices today but prefer holding this hand stating at 4 points with the most cuts for a maximum of 10 points.

Would have liked to toss the 5-K to the crib but there is not much left in the hand following through with this discard.

Nice puzzle james500..
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:49 AM
I really need a 12 hand and nothing here will produce it. Probably a 4 hand and 4 crib. Yuck.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 5:31 AM
I felt it was between 2-4 and 5-Q. At +2/-2 I'd try to discard for best expected averages. I went with toss 5-Q because I liked the magic 11.

Turns out, at least per C. Liam Brown's site, these two tosses have the same expected average.

The bad cut forces us to play on IMO.
glmccuskey
4101 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Saturday 5:47 AM
I agree with horus93 above except with the king in the crib.
Guest says: I've wondered about how to decide between those two sorts of tosses before. On the one hand pone is more likely to toss you a K than any other ten card, on the other the Q, J or T will more easily form a run. Maybe ras could weigh in
Guest says: Certainly the tables I've seen favor Q/J/T by narrow margins but so many pones toss K's so consistently...
Rosemarie44 says: For now Ras weighs in at these tosses to our crib: 5-J, 7.09, 5-K, 6.73, 5-T, .70 and 5-Q, 6.59 points.
Rosemarie44 says: sorry 5-T should read 6.70 points.
james500 says: In response to the guest above, fwiw, of the two I'd favour Q-5 over K-5 for the reasons of run formation that you identify. In today's puzzle however, the King and 5 are the same suit which has a slight appeal to it.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:48 AM
I'm with horus93 today, so Toss 2-4 would be my second choice today. Try to respond with the Deuce of two-card 'Magic Eleven' of 2-9, since we also have a three-card 'Sweet Sixteen' of 2-4-K.
JQT says: X 2 5 K 'go' 4 (31-2) or X 2 X 9 (31-2)
Inushtuk1
1487 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 8:52 AM
I’m with Gary today. A two star toss in the crib. And always (5-K) rather than (5-Q) when there is no chance of hitting for a run in the hand. Plus a bonus of an offensive/defensive two- card ‘Magic Eleven’, and a ‘Sweet Sixteen’. And again drop the Deuce on any X-card lead but the Q. I’ll pair the Lady just in case s/he does not come back with another X-card. We definitely need to risk the trips now after that dismal cut.
JQT says: Good Choices! And yet, I still do tend to prefer Toss 5-Q over Toss 5-K; does that make me "Old School," or "Home Schooled," (or perhaps even ... ~gasp~ ... "Unschooled")?! Incidentally, I shall reply to your last email shortly; I have not forgotten about it. My son and his wife will be in town (coming from Bellingham) next week, and I've not seen them in over Six Years! I hope you're still planning to 'Hit the Hamburg' Tournament in October. While I don't think I will be able to attend it myself, hopefully we could arrange to finally meet and 'tear up' a Cribbage Board. Maybe I could arrange to put you into Niagara Falls (lodge, that is ;-) for a Few Fine Fall Daze..... More details forthcoming in a future email (next week) to follow, my friend. - j q t -
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks John. Now why is the (5-Q) considered “Old School”? Is it because the old timers preferred the run as opposed to the pair? And as for your query; I definitely go with the third option. ; - )
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 4:11 PM
I think its between 4-5-Q-K (2-9), 5-9-Q-K (2-4) and 2-4-9-Q (5-K) - 2-4-9-K (5-Q) may be approximately the same 5-K will score less than 5-Q but the Q in hand may peg better and as the 5-K is suited I'll consider this one:

4-5-Q-K: 4pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.71) = 7¾pts

5-9-Q-K: 4pts + 4½pts (Schell: 4.52) = 8½pts

2-4-9-Q: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 8½pts

Potential:

4-5-Q-K: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 444, 555, 6666 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAAA, 3333, 555, 6666, JJJJ, QQQ, KKK = 25 cuts.

5-9-Q-K: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 999 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/9pts with 555, JJJJ, QQQ, KKK = 13 cuts.

2-4-9-Q: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 444, 5555, 6666, 999, QQQ = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 6/7pts with 222, 3333, 444, 999 = 13 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-4-9-Q will peg best with more low cards and a magic eleven.

Position:

We're 2pts past 2nd street positional hole and Pone is 2pts short of where they'd like to be. So I'll play Defense.

Summary:

4-5-Q-K has the most cuts for improvement and the best maximum plus 25 cuts for 7-10pts. Although it starts with ¾pt less than 5-9-Q-K and 2-4-9-Q and will peg less than 2-4-9-Q. Even so I think it will score best so I'll throw 2-9.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:30 PM
At 72*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W3 %___W4 %
2-4-9-Q___3.83+(-2.04)+6.55=8.34____7.9____23.0
5-9-Q-K___6.00+(-2.07)+4.38=8.31____8.5____22.1
2-4-9-K___3.83+(-2.07)+6.48=8.24____7.9____22.9
4-5-Q-K___6.70+(-2.24)+3.69=8.15____7.7____21.2

Defense______L3 %____L4 %
2-4-9-Q______41.2____69.3
5-9-Q-K______43.2____70.4
2-4-9-K______41.2____69.4
4-5-Q-K______44.3____71.8

2-4-9-Q is best for expected averages by the slim margin of 0.03pt but it is also best for Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the critical board position. So I'll select 5-K to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.
JQT says: Wow, very tight horse race today! All four top choices appear to have expected averages that are less than 0.20 (two-tenths!) of a point apart, and all have winning/losing percentages that are also no different than about a nominal 2%! If the computer is correct (and I see no reason to doubt it) then this means that if we are Dealer an average of about five deals per game, that at best, even if we made the fourth-best choice five times in one game, we would only trail the player who makes the top-choice by less than one single point! Consider that: During the pegging, almost every deal we make decisions in which we might give up Six Points in order to get only Two Points for a PAIR; or that an Opponent might hold off and PAIR us instead of getting PAIRED by us (for a similar NET difference also of Four Holes); and we can see that trying to focus on which discard is better (best) today is probably not the best place to seek improvement! The way this hand gets played during the PEGGING (which is a facet of Cribbage not even addressed by this site, especially when we are the Dealer) is probably a whole lot more important than the discard today. And the fact that this may sometimes be the case does, I believe, make this a relevant puzzle: maybe sometimes the discard choices themselves can become an element of the game where we allot TOO MUCH precision!
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 6:46 PM
Sorry late getting on today. Noticed the discussion above regarding 5-X discards to own crib and what the values ight be or what preferences were. Choosing def. def., def. holding the "sweet 16" 2-4-Q had promise and the 5-K has the highest average to own crib of any 5-X combinations except for the 5-J. I play the numbers and avoid preferences. Numbers in parentheses represents number of times discarded to own crib in which the crib was a factor. Never included the final crib of the game unless some portion of it was scored on the board. The final crib could include anything. That final crib often receives discards which would not be tossed anywhere else on the board, thus is atypical. Here's what the 5-X discards look like: 5-J 7.088 (1,678) 3/91; 5-K 6.726 (1,741) 5/91; 5-10 6/698 (1,170) 6/91; and 5-Q 6.59 (1,251) 7/91. Of all the 5-X discards the 5-K also scores the greatest number of cribs of 12 or more points with 6.716$. The 5-K is the only of that entire group that breaks 6% for those monster cribs. This hand is a classic Small Hand rule application. If you would like to know more about the Small Hand rule, email raswino29@outlook.com any old time.