October 11, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by acis1 on ecribbage.com
109-104*  ?
51%
21%
20%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 160

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dec
4284 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Thursday 3:51 AM
Before the cut I was already in the last bar so twelve cuts gets me in a few other cuts gets me to 117-120. I like those odds.Two clubs lead. dec
Reply
Ras2829
3212 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Thursday 4:33 AM
Needing 12 points to win, it's good bye 5-7. Knowing that I have 12 points once seeing the starter card, will lead the 2c. If starter card had not put me out, would have led the Jack, keeping 2-2-3 intact.
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Rosemarie44
1034 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 5:00 AM
Well Ras says it all today. This hand does have a potential for an exp. average of almost 10 points and a maximum of 15 .
Reply
james500
1973 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Thursday 5:02 AM
May not get another hand so I'll risk it. Fortune favours the brave it seems.
Reply
zeke76
105 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Thursday 5:11 AM
Go for broke to get the 12. Lovely cut.
Reply
wasa
1037 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Thursday 6:04 AM
Need to get 12 points, hand or pegging. Have to keep the sure 6 - looking for an A,2,3,4,T,J,Q,K to either put me out or very close as dec says.
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Gougie00
3723 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Thursday 6:10 AM
One shot to win. Gotta go for an Ace, 2, 3 or Jack. Bingo. Lead the 2 then play off. No sense of engaging in any pegging when we have enough.
Reply
Jazzselke
1122 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Thursday 6:50 AM
Who did the song "It's Now or Never?"
Reply
dgergens
204 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Thursday 10:31 AM
Go big or go home. I stared at this for a while since I don't have par holes or discard value tables memorized. But looks like I came to right conclusion, there was not going to be a second chance.
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smugly
387 votes

Joined: August 2016

   
Thursday 11:24 AM
Need 12. First count. Dealer unlikely to peg 17. So, don't worry about the crib. Just maximize the hand I'll count -- i.e., "expected avg" doesn't matter, just maximize my average hand.
Reply
Coeurdelion
3678 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Thursday 3:41 PM
I think it will be between 2-2-3-J (5-7) and 2-2-3-5 (7-J) or perhaps 2-3-5-J (2-7):

2-2-3-J: 6pts - 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = -1pt

2-2-3-5: 2pts - 4˝pts (Schell: 4.68) = -2˝pts

2-3-5-J: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.97) = -1pt

Potential:

2-2-3-J: Improves with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 555, 8888 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 69.6% up to 10/12/14pts with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444 + 15xXs = 28 cuts. Plus 10 spades for 1pts extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

2-2-3-5: Improves with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 6/8/12pts with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 555, 8888 + 15xXs = 35 cuts.

2-3-5-J: Improves with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 555, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 7/8/10pts with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 555 + 15xXs = 31 cuts. Plus 10 spades for 1pts extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

Pegging:

All the hands should peg well but perhaps 2-2-3-5 the best.

Position:

We need 12pts to get out and with Dealer needing 17pts I think we must go for it and play Offense.

Summary:

2-2-3-5 has the most cuts for improvement but only 4 cuts for 12pts as the maximum. 2-2-3-J has 28 cuts for 10-14pts and also the benefit of the J. It should also peg well. I think this will produce the best chance of winning so I'll throw the 5-7 despite the risk.
Reply
HalscribCLX
3438 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 3:44 PM
At 109-104* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___Win %____Loss %s
2C-3-5-J__7.39+1.61+(-4.52)=4.48____27.6_____33.4
2-2-3-5___6.83+2.22+(-4.58)=4.47____29.7_____33.7
2-2-3-J___9.59+1.50+(-6.90)=4.19____57.8_____42.2

Although 2-2-3-J isn't best for expected averages it is very much best for Win %s and although it is also very much higher for Loss %s because of the risky 5-7 I'll select it to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead a 2 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead__________Net Pegging Pts.____Win %
2_________________(-0.87)_________100.0
3_________________(-1.67)_________100.0
J_________________(-1.88)_________100.0
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