Tuesday 3:08 AM

Now we'll become Next Dealer from at least Hole 100. Lead the Trey.

   

Tuesday 3:50 AM

It pays to Flush today: higher expected averages (hand minus crib toss), possibility of 13 points maximum, and safer discard to opponent.

   

Tuesday 3:55 AM

Flush. lookin for that two of diamonds cut or " a non cut for the opponent hand and/or crib. Looks like no large crib points and we have our par and our check lead. dec

   

Tuesday 4:10 AM

Many more cuts for improvement over keeping 4 card run. Don't like the A-3 throw to crib. I have one of the Jacks to "block" the Q-10 throw.

   

Tuesday 4:36 AM

I'll hold one point less to avoid throwing gappers.

   

Tuesday 5:08 AM

I agree with Joe's reasoning, with a Jack in my hand I'm comfortable discarding 10-Q. 3 lead also.

   

Tuesday 6:57 AM

The flush or the 4 card run? 10-Q is usually a good toss. I hedged with the flush. Lead the 3.

   

Tuesday 7:01 AM

Initial instinct was to keep the run for a decent shot at 10 points but under examination the flush is much better.

If we desperately needed 10 points it'd make sense to keep the run, but at this position we'd mostly want to go for a higher hand average. The run leaves us with only 4 points on 22/46, nearly half the cuts.

The flush is less likely to give us a great hand but much more likely to give us a good one.

Neither the run nor the flush is probably going to pick up many points in pegging. I'd lead the 9 and maybe make something happen further up the first play series with my ace and/or three.

   

Tuesday 7:35 AM

I agree with the flushers. This is a good defensive throw. But with that 6 not looking like it helped the crib much, I agree with horus93. Play offense here. After all, we are plus 6, and Dealer is -12. I think we can afford to attempt to be dealing beyond 100 if possible. So is it the 9 lead as horus93 proposes, or the J. I don’t think the 9 does anything that the J can’t do. Lead the J. On the logical 5 for (15-2), drop the 9 for (24). Hope to trap a small card.

   

Tuesday 7:43 AM

Agree with 8 of the first 9 commenters. It is interesting how often a majority of the commenters will disagree with the the total voters' top choice.

   

Tuesday 8:42 AM

Wow, guess I may be off base. I don't want to throw the 1/3 and like the run.

   

Tuesday 9:09 AM

I want to keep one low rank card either for pegging, or an escape. Q-3 has too much potential in the opponents crib. With a 6 cut I'll lead the 9. I know this strategy is not the best, but it should be okay until my deal.

   

Tuesday 9:12 AM

Playing a defense strategy with these cards, it pays to flush. Since choosing defense will lead the trey. If choosing offense, would have led the 9. The 10-Q 4.638 32/91 is one of six discard choices of the 91 which scores 0-2 more than 40% of the time (40.972 to be exact). The A-3 4.959 45/91 and scores 0-2 27.444. The A-3 scores 12 or more points 8.567%. That's almost twice as often as does the 10-Q.

   

Tuesday 9:39 AM

As many above, I really like the flush. Holding one of the Jacks makes the T-Q not too bad in my eyes.

   

Tuesday 3:30 PM

I think the options are 9-10-J-Q (A-3), A-3-9-J (10-Q) or 3-9-10-J (A-Q):

9-10-J-Q: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.07) = -1pt

A-3-9-J: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.61) = -½pt

3-9-10-J: 3pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.33) = -1½pt

Potential:

9-10-J-Q: Improves with 5555, 6666, 8888, 999 + 13xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 10pts with 5555, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQ = 16 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

A-3-9-J: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 999, 101010, JJJ = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 7/8/11pts with AAA, 2222, 5555, 101010 = 14 cuts. Plus 2pts for 9 diamonds for the flush and his nob = 18/46 = 0.39pt.

3-9-10-J: Improves with 2222, 333, 5555, 6666, 8888, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 5/7/8pts with 2222, 333, 5555, 6666, 999, 101010, JJJ = 24 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

Pegging:

I think the flush will peg best and be hardest to read.

Position:

We only need 4pts to be in position at 4th street positional hole so I'll play Defense.

Summary:

The flush has nearly as many cuts as the best, 3-9-10-J and 14 cuts for 7-11pts so it has a better maximum. It also has 0.39pt extra potential for a diamond cut and it should peg better as well. So I'll throw the 10-Q which has some negative delta too as we hold a J.

   

Tuesday 3:46 PM

At 92-84* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib___Total____W2 %____W3 %
A-3-9-J___6.67+(-2.57)+(-4.52)=(-0.42)__21.9____74.8
9-10-J-Q__6.63+(-3.17)+(-5.09)=(-1.63)__19.6____70.0
3-9-10-J__5.48+(-2.87)+(-4.35)=(-1.76)__15.1____68.9

Defense_______L2 %____L3 %
A-3-9-J_______5.2_____12.1
9-10-J-Q______5.7_____15.7
3-9-10-J______3.7_____15.7

The flush is 0.57pt best for expected averages and is significantly best for Win 5s and Loss %s. So I'll select 10-Q to discard.

After the 6D cut I'll lead the J and play Offense:

Lead________Our Pegging Pts.
J_________________1.73
9_________________1.62
A_________________0.96
3_________________0.90