October 19, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
19*-30  ?
46%
32%
15%
4%
0%
0%
Total votes: 140
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Friday 3:34 AM
Not sure with this selection but decided to choose a decent hand (6 points) and a toss to our crib that gives us 2 points.

Knowing that a 5 was going to turn up I could have chosen to toss A-3 or A-4, but as usual, I don't allow myself to be taken in by the knowledge of a starter card.

Was this an error in judgement? Or am I just not so adventuresome?

Good one james500.
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:47 AM
2 3 4 5 7 all damn pretty good cuts here. After all in this position its all offense. Accept the pegging plusses or minuses here. dec
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Friday 4:35 AM
If we must bury a PAIR, few cards can beat a PAIR of Treys. But Toss A-3 is no slouch, either.

At Hole 19 and trailing by 11, we need a good boost here. And holding 3-4-4-4 is just the type of hand that can really provide such a boost!

Remember, although they are numerous, the Ten Cards or "X" only make up about one-third (16 DIV 46 equals about 35%) of the deck, by far NOT a majority!

This is one of the first things that often surprises players when they begin to apply mathematics to the game of Cribbage. The Ten Cards, including all Face Cards, seem to come up so often, that there is a tendency to believe that they form more than half of the deck. Clearly, they do not!

Thus, we can begin with more points by holding the 3-4-4-4 hand today, and perhaps more importantly, we can aim for the open-ended RUNs of either 3-4-5 or 2-3-4.

Also, in addition to Deuce or 5 Card Cuts, we are helped immensely as well by two additional Treys, one additional 4 Card, along with four ubiquitous 8 Cards and also four 7 Cards. That's a LOT of potential helpers, a few MORE in fact than the total number of Ten Cards.

Therefore, with more starting points, and more chances for help, only in a siruation in which we were severely worried about the pegging would we prefer A-4-4-4.
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 4:57 AM
A clear two horse race.

3-4-4-4 will become 12+ points after cuts of 2222,33,4,5555,7777 or 8888 (19/46).
Also has the potential to score 31/4 with its three card eleven:
X(10)-3(13)-X(23)-4(27)-go-4(31/4).

A-4-4-4 will become 12+ points after cuts of 4,6666,7777,TTTT,JJJJ,QQQQ or KKKK (25/46).

25>19 so I'll try A-4-4-4 (3-3).
JQT says: Good analysis! Let's add one more detail: nearly half of the helpful cuts for 3-4-4-4 produce SEVENTEEN POINTS instead of just a dozen (almost 42% more ... almost half of the time).
Ras2829 says: Hi james500: Like your puzzle very much!
james500 says: Thankyou both for the kind words.
zeke76
1397 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Friday 5:09 AM
Nice cut.
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 5:36 AM
I tried it this way just in case of a 2,5,7,8 cut.
wasa
3019 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Friday 7:19 AM
Good one. Thought long and hard about keeping 3-4-4-4 or A-4-4-4 but thought T,J,Q,K odds better than 2-5-7-8. In hind sight, not sure why (bias?). Of course, if we always knew what card would turn up the game would be very different.
wasa says: Just read James500 analysis of 19 cards vs 25 cards for 12+ points. Maybe I did play the odds.
Jazzselke
2587 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Friday 7:40 AM
Good puzzle, tough call. Based on the score I will go for the larger hand. If in a more favorable position I would throw the treys.
Jazzselke says: .and of course I meant to throw the 3 of diamonds.
Guest says: I did. lol S:)
horus93
1282 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Friday 8:08 AM
I was reading about Rasmussen's small hand rule yesterday, decided to apply the principle this am.

Before the cut our relative position is a precarious +1/-4. After the cut I'd guesstimate our "adjusted position" at perhaps -4/+22, which would call for offense. But if pone is holding nickles and dimes the cut may well push him ahead a whole deal by reaching around 44, in which case we should play off. Not that there's much flexibility with a hand like this anyway.

I think I'd dump the vulnerable ace on a X lead and play a 4 in most other cases but I'm not really sure.
Ras2829 says: Hi horus93: The Small Hand rule is designed to apply to hands of six points or less in which there is not potential for 12 or more points. Here you have potential in either retention for 12 or more.
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Friday 9:08 AM
Am thinking off., off., off here (off. is for offense). So it's hold for the big hand and take pegs as offered. Will play on the lead. The 3-card 11 provides an excellent chance for dealer to close the count for 31-4. On any X-point lead, play the trey which forces the five off the play, opponent will advance the count to 23, and dealer responds with 4s. Yeah, it's a fake flush with 3s and 4s on the table. This trap play has a high percentage success rate when the lead is a X. Try it - you'll like it! The top two choices are very close. In situations where defense was the choice, A-4-4-4 would appear to be the better choice.
Inushtuk1
1488 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Friday 10:04 AM
The star toss method leads me to this conclusion and an offensive 3-card 11.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: I came up with that so long ago that had forgotten about it. "Don't let the stars get in your eyes!"
Inushtuk1 says: Well it may be old, but it still serves me well whenever I am in doubt. I just need to factor in the pegging potential of any of the other valid options.
JQT says: This discard also provides a wonderful source of 'Vitamin 5,' or what I long ago dubbed (FCI): "Five Card Insurance." Normally, I would consider this aspect specifically while I am Pone, since the Dealer gets to "use" the Cut Card TWICE. When trailing by nearly a dozen points however, I think we can also consider such phenomena when we're the Dealer. If Pone gets a "bust" of a hand (in spite of cutting a 5 Card), now we are most likely back in the game; however, if Pone gets Sixteen or (~gasp~) Twenty-Four Points from the 5-Card Cut, our Seventeen-Point Hand possibly saves us from being skunked. And Mike knows all about (me) being SKUNKED: He did it to me when I was the Dealer at (90*-120). Remember what I was dealt, Mike? Yes, it was (6 7 9 9 T Q). I quickly stuffed the Face Cards into my Forlorn Crib, but upon closer inspection later, decide that the interesting Toss (9 9) probably left me with more "unique" ways to avert the SKUNK. After he led a Ten and proceeded to SKUNK me, this analysis seemed to be confirmed. Opinions or Ideas?
Guest says: Well if you had any hope at all of “winning from the corner” you made the right choice I think. If you just want to avoid the skunk, what about either of the 7-9-9-X(6-X) options? In those cases all mid-card leads, and the 5-card lead put you over. Plus you have a roughly 25% chance of pairing the X-card lead. Or 9-9-10-Q. Only 50% of mid card leads put you out, but 50% of the X-card leads are covered. But I think 6-7-9-9 was a good keep as well from a very tough position. How do you remember all the details? That whole long week-end is a blur in my mind right now.
Inushtuk1 says: Sorry. Guest was Mike.
JQT says: Well, let's see here: 7-9-9-T covers 19 Leads (5555, 666, 777, 8888, 99, TTT), which I'll admit is better than 6-7-9-9, which covers only 12 Leads (666, 777, 8888, 99); but lo and behold: 6-7-T-Q covers 22 Leads (5555, 666, 777, 8888, 99, TTT, QQQ), which is precisely 3 DIV 46 or greater than about a 6% improvement in chances of averting the SKUNK with my *first* card played. I'll admit that it was quite natural for me to retain a PEAR, since self-pairing is a common pegging tactic and way to score, especially during the final volley(ies) of pegging. But with Pone sitting atop of Hole 120, I would likely not survive beyond my second card played as the Dealer. In Summary: Considering that I had nearly a 10% shot at cutting a Jack, and then the fact that I could have scored upon 22 DIV 46 or nearly half of all cards led, I feel that I had an excellent chance of avoiding Mr. SKUNK in that particularly sad endgame: but I think that I really botched the discard. And how do I remember all of this stuff? My Goodness: How can I ever forget it!?
Inushtuk1 says: You’re right. (9-9) would have been best.
Inushtuk1 says: You’re right. (9-9) would have been best.
Inushtuk1 says: I know, I know Guest. Tommy Two Times.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 2:11 PM
A-4-4-4 (3-3) or 3-4-4-4 (A-3)?:

A-4-4-4: 6pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 11¾pts

3S-4-4-4: 8pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.52) = 12¼pts

Potential:

A-4-4-4: Improves with AAA, 2222, 33, 4, 6666, 7777 + 16xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 12pts with 4, 6666, 7777 + 16xXs = 25 cuts.

3S-4-4-4: Improves with 2222, 33, 4, 5555, 7777, 8888 = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 12/14/17/20ptpts with all cuts.

Pegging:

Both hands should peg quite well. Perhaps 3-4-4-4 better with a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

We only need 25pts to get to 2nd street positional hole at 44pts and if Pone scores 26pts they will be at 56pts, 4pts short of where they would like to be. So I'll play Defense to keep them short.

Summary:

3-4-4-4 starts with ½pt more and has the better maximum but A-4-4-4 has more cuts for improvement and 25 cuts for 12pts. 3-4-4-4 may peg better but I don't think it will be by much. So I'll throw the 3-3.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 2:21 PM
At 19*-30 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W7 %____W8 %
A-4-4-4___9.65+(-2.26)+5.53=12.92____24.3____35.0
3S-4-4-4_11.04+(-2.28)+4.03=12.79____25.7____35.6

Defense_______L7 %____L8 %
A-4-4-4_______35.7____44.1
3S-4-4-4______35.7____43.2

A-4-4-4 is better for expected averages by 0.13pt and although 3S-4-4-4 is slightly better for both Win %s and Loss %s as its early in the game I'll decide on the expected averages. So I'll select 3-3 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.
JQT says: We're still on First Street, so Halscrib will focus more upon the Expected Average as opposed to the Win Percentage. And Toss 3-3 to our Own Crib is indeed a Powerful PAIR! Kudos to those who opted to hold A-4-4-4 today! I don't think I would play this differently, however (he said, to the computer who regularly beats him, but only slightly greater than 50% of the time ; - ).
Inushtuk1 says: Hi again John. “...only in a situation where we were severely worried about the pegging would we prefer A-4-4-4.” Yet notice how the computer gives A-4-4-4, and 3-4-4-4 virtually the same Pone’s Pegs. Yet another example of “safety in numbers” I presume.
Inushtuk1 says: Also Coeurdelion, and Halscrib have chosen a defensive discard strategy. On offense, or optimal, I think the computer would have chosen 3-4-4-4
Coeurdelion says: Yes, but only by 0.09pt and 0.06pt