November 18, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
60*-62  ?
42%
29%
17%
7%
1%
1%
Total votes: 152
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 3:18 AM
2-3-3-7 (6-9) immediately catches the eye, a guaranteed 4+2=6 and every cut increases the value the hand. I'd like to see how 2-3-3-9 (6-7) might fare though. Every cut bar a 5 or 8 will improve the hand, those fives and eights do give a welcome boost to the crib however.
9 response to any X lead other than a 10.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 3:24 AM
As James states this hand increases with every cut, starts with 4 points in the hand and 2 points in the crib right off.

Going with the combination this morning.
Rosemarie44 says: Here are two discard averages to own crib from Delynn Covert's "Play Winning Cribbage": the 6-9 comes on top with 5.20 points, and 6-7 is valued at 4.80 points.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 4:05 AM
Using the Star System, Toss 6-7 should get us the most bang-for-the-buck.

While it starts out worth zero points, Toss 6-7 should average about Five Points in our Crib.

Meanwhile, Toss 6-9 is an "also-ran" discard, which places it very low, even though it may begin with an inherent Two Points.
JQT says: Our relative position is rather poor, so it's important that we get this discard correct.
horus93 says: 6-9 averages .2-.5 more than 6-7. Not bad for an "also-ran"!
JQT says: I have probably written more about the mysteries of those "Touching Triplets" of Cribbage called Toss 3-4, Toss 6-7, and Toss J-Q than perhaps about any other discards! I have experienced over the course of several decades for instance that while some of the older charts do indeed rate Toss 6-9 as superior to Toss 6-7, that it became apparent to me at least twenty years ago that these two, when sent to our Own Crib, are at least equals. But lately, meaning within the past ten or twelve years, I am now of the opinion (among several others) that Toss 6-7 is actually superior to Toss 6-9. For more detailed information, it's easy to search Daily Cribbage Hand along with Toss (6 7) and my initials to read some of the often lengthy thoughts I have posted with regards to this fascinating choice.
JQT says: For example, I posted some ideas at: http://dailycribbagehand.org/show.php?date=2014-05-12
Inushtuk1 says: Hi John. Using the Star Toss System, wouldn’t 3-3-6-9(2-7) be the best. Not saying it’s correct. But it’s the only one with a total of 6.
JQT says: I suppose I invoked this system only when considering what I felt were the top two candidates.
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 4:10 AM
Catching an Ace or a Three bingoes the hand here. Eight-Nine in the crib? dec
zeke76
1397 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Sunday 5:55 AM
Same
glmccuskey
4102 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Sunday 6:17 AM
With only 13 known points I’m forced to play defense to the lead.
Ras2829 says: Hi Gary: You have a valid point on defense. Think it is about a 50/50 proposition. If successful at limiting non-dealer to less than 9 points would seem to enhance dealer's chance to win game. Conversely dealing from hole 60, one could convincingly argue total offense for this hand and likely the remainder of the game.
Jazzselke
2587 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Sunday 7:35 AM
As stated 2339 is helped by all cards except 5 or 8. But both those cards help the crib, possibly in a huge way.
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 8:24 AM
Everyone seems to like that 233 together. I like that ace cut.
james500 says: I agree with keeping 2-3-3 together, but would be interested in your view regards the 2-6-7-9 (3-3) option for 4+2.
Gougie00 says: Since there are 16 "Tenners" in the deck, 2-3-3 would always be beneficial.
horus93
1282 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Sunday 9:32 AM
I think this is one of those rare days where most or even all of the commentators will have gotten it wrong!

Discardpro has 2-3 as better than this by 1.7, better than 2-3-3-9 by 2.4! And in second choice he has toss 3-9 which doesn't seem very popular at all.

Anyway I'd play defense after the cut.
Guest says: Plugged it into Liam wrong, it actually favors toss 6-9
Ras2829 says: Hi horus93: Discardpro, as you might be suggesting, is a very poor source for discard values. There are very few good sources of such information. Hal Mueller, inventor of Halscrib, REX, and Cribbage Prof is the most creditable among the electronic wizards. Some folks refer to C. Liam Brown as a source. The downside with most is that they do not account for the potential pegging value of the cards retained. Except for HalscribCLX, REX, and the Cribbage Prof, no consideration is given to choice of strategy relative to position which effects the value of the cards retained/discarded. I place great value on my work as discards were made in live play over a long period and would reflect all real considerations and player biases in this game. If my sample is of 1,000 or more (some are in excess of 3,000), I have great confidence in RAS averages. If less than 1000 as with the case of 5-5 to opponent (have only made 58),don't have extreme confidence although find my averages to be within .2 of a point of HalscribCLX on nearly all discards.
Ras2829 says: BTW Bruce Bowman's cribbage tutorial ( believe it was titled Cribbage Master) was a good early source of discard values and might have been the source for Delynn Colvert's averages.
Hillchem says: RAS averages available for anyone at http://www.cribbageforum.com/YourCrib.htm and http://www.cribbageforum.com/OppCrib.htm
wasa
3019 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Sunday 9:42 AM
As others state, I wanted to keep the 2-3-3 together. Tossing the 6-9 vs the 6-7 is debatable, but I went with the safer 6-9. As others said, every cut helps
Inushtuk1
1488 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 2:46 PM
The (6-7) toss suffers from the negative delta of us retaining the 2. Therefore I’ll toss the two sure points. However tossing (6-7) leaves me with the defensive/offensive 9-2 “Magic Eleven”. It should be a very close call.

After the cut I have only 13 known points. I think my goal is 86 or better. *Offense* to the lead. I seem to be at odds on the pegging strategy vis-a-vis Gary McCuskey most every day. This is somewhat troubling to me.
Guest says: With me not likely to get close to were I need to be, I think it’s a better chance at holding my opponent short. glmcc
Guest says: I read RAS as Optima. I’m willing to consider agreements.
Guest says: Optimal
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 4:51 PM
With opponent already at hole 60, needing to deal from 69-73, RAS chooses off. off. off.. That means to me will start with six points. That's offense at the time of discard, after seeing the starter card, and choosing a pegging strategy. Will play on the lead although would not score 15-2 on an 8 lead. Should also have mentioned in my reply to horus93 that Cribbageform.com is a treasure trove of cribbage information. Mike Schell created the site nearly two decades ago and has not maintained for the past several years. Mike Schell was a member and eventual Director of the North Seattle Grass Roots Cribbage Club. Much discarding information is presented on the Schell website. Also check the archives as you'll find information of value that pertains to all aspects of the game. If not familiar, check it out. JQT points out that the 6-7 grows more than does the 6-9. It starts with 0 points and grows to 5.140 (2,382) and 6-9 starts with 2 points and grows to 5.114 (2,590). The 6-7, like the 3-4, is dead on one end as it needs a five spot, a card seldom discarded by opponent. Because of that 6-7 scores 0-2 33.291%, and a large number of those are zero cribs. The 6-9 will never score less than two points. The 6-7 does score 12 or more points 1/12 cribs while 6-9 does so 1/20.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. I believe our friend Horus 93 is very well versed in the wonders of Cribbage Forum. Check out his reply to Indiana Jared on the 30th of last month.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Thanks - must have overlooked horus93 comments relative to cribbageforum.com. There may be others not familiar with the site though.
Inushtuk1 says: Very true.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 7:53 PM
Three likely keeps - 2-3-3-9 (6-7), 2-3-3-7 (6-9) and 2-6-7-9 (3-3):

2-3-3-9: 4pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.98) = 9pts

2-3-3-7: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 9¼pts

2-6-7-9: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 9¾pts

Potential:

2-3-3-9; Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 666, 777, 999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/12/14pts with AAAA, 33, 4444, 999 + 16xXs = 29 cuts.

2-3-3-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 777 + 16xXs = 36 cuts.

2-6-7-9: Improves with 222, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 7/8/10pts with 222, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 20 cuts.

Pegging:

Each hand will peg well perhaps 2-3-3-9 and 2-3-3-7 the better.

Position:

We're 10pts short of position and Pone only needs 8pts to get into position for next deal so I'll play Defense.

Summary:

2-6-7-9 is best by ½pt but 2-3-3-7 has guaranteed improvement with 36 cuts for 8-12pts. 2-3-3-9 has the best maximum at 14pts. I'll go with the best potential and a good maximum at 12pts. So I'll throw 6-9.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 7:56 PM
At 60*-62 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
2-3-3-7___8.09+(-2.22)+5.04=10.91____12.4____25.0
2-3-3-9___7.96+(-2.09)+4.74=10.61____13.6____26.7
2-6-7-9___6.13+(-2.13)+5.43= 9.43____10.9____25.9

Defense_______L4 %____L5 %
2-3-3-7_______24.4____54.3
2-3-3-9_______21.7____51.1
2-6-7-9_______20.2____50.9

2-3-3-7 is best for expected averages by 0.30pt and although 2-3-3-9 is best for Win %s and 2-6-7-9 is lowest for Loss %s at this stage of the game I'll place most weight on the expected averages and select 6-9 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.