Tuesday 3:20 AM

We hold the Sweet Sixteen 2-6-8, and keep the powerful 5-6 together.

Lead the 6 Card.

   

Tuesday 3:28 AM

Tossing 3-9 gives me a hand that has less cuts for improvement than tossing 2-8 but at higher maximum of 10 points.

   

Tuesday 4:12 AM

I would not give away the 6-9 or the 8-9 for that matter, both relative risky discards Just keep four and utilize that sixteen to limit their pegging and hope for the best cut a four. dec

   

Tuesday 4:20 AM

??

   

Tuesday 4:44 AM

What a terrible first hand! Dealer is guaranteed a peg, so a maximum of only four points from hand and box combined.

Only cuts of a 2 or 8 are unhelpful, and I know where one of each is. 2+8=10, and I also know where a 5 is.

6 lead.

   

Tuesday 6:02 AM

This looks like the better pegging hand. Against a double run of face cards I peg six with the three lead.

   

Tuesday 6:32 AM

28 or 39? Since I have little, I cant justify giving away either 6-8, 8-9, or 6-9. I opted for the very defensive 3-9.

   

Tuesday 7:06 AM

I had little idea what to do here. Looks like as second deal we had a horrible 5 points combined hand/crib/pegging to start so I think I want offence? Hopefully a 24 point hand for me next deal :-)

   

Tuesday 7:14 AM

I had this hand a couple years ago in a totally defensive position late in the game and chose 39. In this case as the second hand of the game and after a terrible first hand, will try for 9 points. If the 2356, which also turns into 9 with a 4 cut, didn't involve a toss of 89, would absolutely agree with Gary on keeping that hand.

   

Tuesday 8:44 AM

Tricky one but I believe this will get me the most points. At -3/+17 on first street I wanted to be aggressive. In most situations I'd toss dealer 3-9.

Not surprised to be in the minority but surprised to be totally alone so far

I would lead the 3 and go for a 15-2.

   

Tuesday 9:38 AM

Well, I see Gary’s better pegging hand, but can’t justify tossing (8-9) this early in the game. There are only two keeps that offer us a chance at the maximum of 10 points. And this is the only one that does not involve tossing a 5. I also like what my friend John wrote about the Sweet Sixteen of 2-6-8, and keeping the powerful 5-6 together.

What a terrible start for us. Only 5 points as game’s starting Dealer, and now 4 points only here on the second deal. Offense. However I think the 8 component from the 2-6-8 Sweet Sixteen is best. Hopefully Dealer does *not* have a double run of face cards, as that would see me playing out with only a (31-2) to show for my efforts. Rather hoping Dealer has 5-X-X-X and it goes thus: 8(8)-5(13)-2(15-2)-X(25)-6(31-2), or 8(8)-X(18)-6(24)-5(29)-2(31-2)/X(10)-5(15-2). Or 8(8)-7(15-2)-6(21-3)-5(26-4)-5(31-4).

   

Tuesday 9:48 AM

Well, if I can't have anything good, gonna make sure opponent can't either. I chose this hand because the 8&6 were closer together than 9&6. But you could make the same argument for the 3&5 vs the 2&5. So I'll be honest. I saw this hand first (before the 3,5,6,9) and completely missed the sweet sixteen. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.

   

Tuesday 1:27 PM

It appears that the well is running dry at the start of this game, and I have a hole in my bucket. With the sweet sixteen I should be able to peg something and I sure need the dealer to have a hand as bad as mine. I'll lead the 6.

   

Tuesday 3:06 PM

If we're to keep 2pts without giving away 2pts then it only leaves 4 discards 3-9, 2-8, 3-8 and 3-6:

2-5-6-8: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.87) = -2¾pts

3-5-6-9: 2pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.94) = -3pts

2-5-6-9: 2pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.05) = -3pts

2-5-8-9: 2pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.87) = -3pts

Potential:

2-5-6-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 888, 999 + 16xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 6/7/8/10pts with 222, 4444, 555, 7777 = 14 cuts.

3-5-6-9: Improves with AAAA, 333, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 999 + 16xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 6/7/8pts with AAAA, 333, 4444, 666, 7777, 999 = 21 cuts.

2-5-6-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 888, 999 + 16xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 6/7/8/9pts with 222, 4444, 666, 7777, 999 = 17 cuts.

2-5-8-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 888, 999 + 16xXs = 43 cuts 43/46 = 93.5% up to 6/7pts with 222, 555, 7777, 888 = 13 cuts.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg similarly.

Position:

If we were First Dealer the we only scored 5pts and are 3pts short of positional hole so I'll be playing Offense.

Summary:

Starting with only 2pts I don't think there'll be much between these hands but 2-5-6-8 has joint most cuts for improvement, the best maximum and the lowest discard value so I'll throw 3-9.

   

Tuesday 3:23 PM

At 5-9* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W8 %____W9 %
2-5-6-8___5.17+1.70+(-4.29)=2.58____10.9____24.4
3-5-6-9___5.04+1.85+(-4.41)=2.48____10.9____24.8
2-5-6-9___4.96+1.91+(-4.52)=2.35____10.8____24.5
2-5-8-9___4.78+1.57+(-4.26)=2.09____10.1____23.7

Offense______L8 %____L9 %
2-5-6-8______22.4____44.8
3-5-6-9______21.4____43.6
2-5-6-9______22.1____44.5
2-5-8-9______21.3____44.3

2-5-6-8 is best for expected averages by 0.10pt and although 3-5-6-9 is very slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s as its the close to the start of the game I'll decide based on expected averages and select 3-9 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the 8 and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Pts.
8_________________1.93
2_________________1.41
6_________________1.40
5_________________1.13

   

Tuesday 5:22 PM

Play the 2-5-6-8 and have long been surprised as to how often a cut of 7 occurs for ten points. Not so today. Lead the 8 as it's off., off., off. today and take any pegs offered.