December 4, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
93-98*  ?
62%
25%
9%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 166
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:28 AM
Nice one, james500. I believe we need to gain a few points with this hand but not get into a pegging war with dealer.
Choice for me was between 7-K or 7-T as these have a higher expected average hand than tossing the "T-K".
Chose the 7-K as this is in Ras's group of giving opponent usually 2 points or less in his crib. Let's see how others comment on today's hand.
Rosemarie44 says: This is a question for Ras: The toss "7-K" in your 2nd group of balking cards and valued at 4.25 points. toss 7-T is not in at group of balking cards and is valued at 4.17 points. Why is 7-T set at a lower value than 7-K???? thanks you.
Ras2829 says: There are a few spots in my empirical data which are difficult to reconcile. The results are exactly as recorded in live play. There are many factors that determine the discard of an opposing player. Some play hunches, others have discards they favor, some have unfounded bias, a few have studied discard tables, play those numbers, and some are all-out offense players, go for the distance with every set of cards, and some are down right stingy regardless of position. All of that and other factors determine the value of a given discard. I do place great weight on this empirical data if it includes 1,000 samples or more. The only significant difference I can see between 7-10 4.171 (1,75) 7/91 and 7-K 4.246 (1,953) 11/91 is that the latter scores 8-11 points 20% more frequently than does the 7-10. Why might that be? Perhaps my response provides more questions than answers.
Rosemarie44 says: Is that because dealer is more apt to toss a king in his crib?
dgergens says: Thanks for info you left under my post.
dec
6353 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:29 AM
If I was already at 95-96 I would do the K-10 thing. Now its two things what they do with their main hand and getting close enough to make the next count after for me able to game out. dec
Gougie00
5725 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:45 AM
K-7 is almost as bad as K-10, and gives me a few for chances for a 12 hand. Lead the 3. Play cautious offense.
glmccuskey
4096 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:19 AM
Defense, defense, defense as RAS would say. I’ll lead the three of diamonds.
Guest says: I'm with you today. I call this the Selke hand as he taught me how valuable it is--every cut helps it. Happy Holidays! S :)
zeke76
1391 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:39 AM
Tossed the 7-K. Curious if the board position makes this unwise.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:10 AM
Try to maximize our hand and minimize the opponent's Crib.
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:36 AM
Well see Gary and S:) comments, can't go against that! Have to balk their crib to have a chance.
Guest says: k-10 is a good throw - but k-7 is not that bad. some of you play the game likeyou cannot throw certain cards - k-7 is my throw, and I bet over a period of time, it does not hurt any more than k-10
Jazzselke says: Respectfully disagree, 78 is the most common throw to your own crib.
Ras2829 says: For what it's worth: The 10-K 3.848 (3,884) 1/91 and 7-K 4.246 (1,953) 11/91, when discarded to opponent, do look much alike in scoring 8-11 points. They are almost identical in that range. It's on the ends of the scoring range where 10-K and 7-K do not look much alike. The 10-K scores 20% more cribs of 0-2 point and 7-K scores 50% more cribs of 12 or more points. More later.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:54 AM
Don't know the par holes, but looked at my board and could see I need to make up some yardage if I'm to be person counting first when time to cross the finish line. Have to chance giving away the seven.
Rosemarie44 says: I have had these par holes in my notes for some time: 18 - 44- 70 - 96. Also 1st street: 17-21, 2nd street: 43-47, 3rd street: 69-73 and 4th street 95-99.
horus93 says: The way I'd read it dealer is only 3 points past his par and we are 18 behind our next par, definitely a defensive position. If we can hold dealer BACK, short of par, our relative position next hand might be something like +5/-5. It's basically defensive but our own position probably isn't sure enough for it to be a good idea to toss T-K over 7-K. 7-K is a good balk and we need to score some points ourselves to have good position next round if we do indeed manage to hold dealer back and shorten the game by deal. Also T-K is an all-or-nothing balk: it has the lowest average and the highest probability of a 0 crib but it also has a higher probability to yield a big crib than something like 9-K (if I remember what Ras said on this subject correctly). 7-K hedges our bets if dealer throws a five in there.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 10:12 AM
With the entire remaining cards available to benefit this hand, I'll discard the K-T. As far as which hand is better for pegging, the difference is only slightly noticeable.

I am sure that all bloggers will agree that the 2-3-3 will remain together if for no other reason because of the 14 remaining X cards. I'll lead the 3d and start out defensively.
cribbagepogo
3250 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 1:21 PM
7's are killers. You will not make 24 with 10/K but throw a 7 and see.
JQT says: Only throwing another Middle Card with a 7 Card can ever yield 24 points; also, perhaps somewhat ironically and counter-intuitively, while throwing 7-X can only produce 14 points, discarding T-K can actually yield 20 points!
JQT says: Toss T-K indeed has the lowest Crib Value, but the variations it can produce are worthy of careful study: http://www.cribbageforum.com/OppCrib.htm
wasa says: Story time. I tossed my opponent T-K of hearts. Opponent tossed J-Q of hearts. 5 of hearts cut. My T-K toss yielded 18 points. I felt quite upset that I lost the game (or pretty much felt like I lost the game) on a T-K discard. Of course, my mind doesn't remember all of the times T-K was zero or 2 points in opponent's crib.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 2:25 PM
We're in a dilemma in this position where we need to keep opponent as short as possible from 111/112pts but we also would like to be at 105+pts to give us a reasonable chance of holding out as Dealer next time. So is it 7-K or 10-K?:

2-3-3-10: 6pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.27) = +1¾pts

2-3-3-7: 4pts - 4pts (Schell: 3.88) = 0pt

Potential:

2-3-3-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 777, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444 + 14xXs = 27 cuts.

2-3-3-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 777 + 14xXs = 34 cuts.

Pegging:

I think both hands will peg well.

Position:

I think we must aim for 105+pts so need 12+pts. If Dealer scores the average 16pts they will be at 114pts and in a very good position to go out next deal. So I'll peg Defensively.

Summary:

2-3-3-10 is 1¾pts better than 2-3-3-7 but 2-3-3-7 has more cuts for improvement. 2-3-3-10 also has 16 cuts for 12pts compared to 2 cuts with 2-3-3-7. I think 7-K will be safe enough although 10-K of course is safer. I'll throw the 7-K.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 2:54 PM
I to am allergic to throwing 7's in dealers crib. So, for me it came to the (hopefully) old reliable K-10. With any cut, I'll be at least at 99. As long as opponent can be held back, I just might beat him(her) to the finish line on my next deal/peg/crib.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:12 PM
At 93-98* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
2-3-3-10__9.52+1.74+(-4.31)=6.95____0.1____19.0
2-3-3-K___9.52+1.67+(-4.48)=6.71____0.1____18.1
2-3-3-7___8.00+2.46+(-4.13)=6.33____0.0____17.7

Offense______L1 %___L2 %
2-3-3-10_____5.7____57.1
2-3-3-K______6.4____58.2
2-3-3-7______5.7____55.4

2-3-3-10 is 0.24pt better than 2-3-3-K and 0.62pt better than 2-3-3-7. 2-3-3-10 is also best for Win %s although it is slightly higher for Loss %s as 10-K is a safer discard. So I'll select 7-K to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll lead 3D and play Defense:

Lead____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3_____________________(-2.29)
2_____________________(-2.36)
10____________________(-3.20)
polynumeral
4527 votes

Joined: December 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:39 AM
Just wondering:
When you are playing against pones who also have good/similiar strategic understanding and you are aware that they may analyse your game as you do theirs
Before you answer, I understand that my selection tonight was not optimal
however
Does anyone else in general play against a perceived worthy challenger modify their strategy over a period of time so that they may gain an advantage.
I guess I am mostly referring to pegging to lull them into thinking that since I led a xxx I'm more than likely to lead a xxy when I know that I would not do so and play zzz.
In a star trekish summation does anyone sometimes find value in playing the person rather than the deck.