December 5, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
43*-44  ?
45%
37%
8%
5%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 165

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Rosemarie44
1034 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 3:07 AM
It was either tossing 6-8 or 2-8 to my crib.
The hand that I decided to retain is not as strong as 5-6-J-Q that has an additional 4 cuts (7777) that increase the value of the hand to a total of 25 cuts (7, 8, 9, 10 points).
The hand that I chose with the higher valued toss of 6-8 has 21 cuts for 8, 9, 10 points.
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james500
1973 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 3:12 AM
A four point hand with 6-8 to my crib, must surely have a higher combined value than a four point hand with either X-6 or 2-8 as discards?
Is 2-5-6-8 (J-Q) worth considering though?

5 lead for a 50:50 chance of 25/2.
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dec
4284 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 4:13 AM
Can someone give me a seven perhaps in the crib? Havn't had much luck with filling that 5-6 in my hand. dec
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Gougie00
3723 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 5:09 AM
6-8? No flush to consider. Another Meh hand. I'd like to get to hole 60 so its offense if possible.
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glmccuskey
2846 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Wednesday 6:01 AM
Keeping the 5-6 is the better pegger but I need some hope in the crib. Offense to the lead.
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zeke76
105 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Wednesday 6:08 AM
I’m with everyone on the top two choices but went the other way. This probably means I’m wrong.
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wasa
1037 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Wednesday 6:16 AM
I agree with RoseMarie44. Briefly considered the 2-8 vs the 6-8 but since pone will rarely toss me a 5, putting cards that add to 10 in my crib (A-9, 2-8, 3-7, 4-6) are not always a good move (I believe I got this from Barlow's book). Yes, tossing the 6-8 requires an A or 7 from pone to work together, but better than a 5.
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Jazzselke
1122 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Wednesday 6:59 AM
Agree with the majority, but my second choice might be JQ. Although giving up 2 points, it would be keeping good peggers, and JQ can be a good throw. Certainly a K more likely to be tossed than a 7 ( or 5 if 28 is our choice).
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horus93
281 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Wednesday 8:48 AM
Expected averages favor this keep so strongly that I wouldn't even really think about the pegging possibilities of other discards.

I'd play offense after the cut. The starting position is -1/+10 and though our deficit will probably grow this hand I'd still tilt towards playing on.
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JQT
2486 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Wednesday 9:32 AM
I suppose I am mostly in agreement with the two gentlemen above, especially Jazzselke.

Toss J-Q would be the alternative to 6-8 I believe, and it's nearly my first choice today. The crazy way those positional 'par' holes work, while we sit at -1/+10, we are just one or two holes shy of being "on target" where our opponent would then pethaps be minus sixteen!

If we can therefore "step up the pace" and exceed our average by a point or two, we can turn the remainder of this game into an "even" number of deals, which suits the Dealer (us) as long as we're can remain (or rather get back...) on track.

Even if we cannot exceed or reach our average here, the rest of this game could very well consist of us "chasing it down" lest we ultimately wrap this up with an "odd" number of deals, and thus find ourselves dealing at a score of something like Hole 114 where our Three Counts cannot do us much good: therefore, we need to make use of these NOW while they still *can* be of great use!
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Andy (muesli64)
1419 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Wednesday 9:34 AM
I'll go with the flow but I expect Ras has other ideas?
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dgergens
204 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Wednesday 10:58 AM
Looks like I zigged when everyone zagged. Was not thrilled with putting 8,2 in my crib, but wanted to keep the 5,6 together for the cut and magic 11.
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Coeurdelion
3678 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 12:48 PM
I think its between 2-8 keeping the close 5-6 or throwing the gapper 6-8:

5-6-J-Q: 4pts + 3˝pts (Schell: 3.66) = 7˝pts

2-5-J-Q: 4pts + 4˝pts (Schell: 4.63) = 8˝pts

Potential:

5-6-J-Q: Improves with 4444. 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/9/10pts with 4444, 555, 7777 + 14xXs = 25 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

2-5-J-Q: Improves with 222, 3333, 555, 8888 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/9/10pts with 3333, 555 + 14xXs = 21 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Pegging:

5-6-J-Q has a magic eleven and 2-5-J-Q a low card. I think 5-6-J-Q will peg slightly better.

Position:

We're only 1pt short of positional hole but Pone is already there I'll play Offense to improve our position.

Summary:

2-5-J-Q starts with 1pt more and although 5-6-J-Q has more cuts for improvement and more for 7-10pts I don't think it that much better to catch up the 1pt. So I'll throw 6-8.
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HalscribCLX
3438 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 1:14 PM
At 43*-44 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
2-5-J-Q___6.63+2.70+4.72=14.05____37.0____26.6
2-5-6-8___5.13+4.11+4.65=13.89____35.2____24.3
5-6-J-Q___7.02+3.09+3.60=13.71____34.8____24.2

Offense_______L6 %____L7 %
2-5-J-Q_______48.3____53.7
2-5-6-8_______49.7____56.0
5-6-J-Q_______49.8____56.2

2-5-J-Q is 0.16pt better than 2-5-6-8 and 0.34pt better than 5-6-J-Q. It is also best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s.

After the 6 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
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JRCeagle78
578 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Wednesday 1:21 PM
I'll play offense with this hand. If the position was at the bottom of 3rd street or the top of 4th, a defensive strategy would have been deployed and toss the J-Q. I briefly considered tossing the 8-2 but I felt that discard really would not help my crib that much.
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Ras2829
3212 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 4:57 PM
Submitted this puzzle as thought there might be discussion as to which player has the positional advantage. The posting just above and the replies suggest that to be the case. With the deal in2nd street CPZ 43-47, RAS has a slight positional advantage and opponent will deal well beyond that CPZ 43-47. No need for dealer here to consider defense. It's off., off., off., and play on the lead. Nothing more to this submission. No trickery as some may have suspected. The 6-8 is the better discard since cards of 10 value (A-9, 2-8, 3-7, 4-6 are often low-scoring.
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