December 10, 2018
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Total votes: 162 |
james500 3917 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Monday 3:16 AM
I'll want to keep all the fives, and I don't want to discard 7-9 either.
7+3=10, and with so many fives out of circulation, this could be safe(ish) I think? Both could become 20 points after a 5 cut, but 5557 has a greater second highest value (17 after a 6 cut), than does 5559 (14 after an A or X). 5d lead. |
Rosemarie44 2052 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Monday 3:22 AM
Decided to not toss 7-9 to opponent and keep this hand today. Statistics very close. Guest says: The hand on 12/3/18 is somewhat similar to this hand but was more straightforward in what to hold and discard. The hand was 2c, 5c, 5s, 5d, 6s, 7h. |
dec 6352 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Monday 3:50 AM
I would like to add the possibilities of the four and two cuts but not at the risk of the seven-nine discard. Lead a seven and hope to muddle the pegging. dec Guest says: I think we had this hand before...... |
Andy (muesli64) 2223 votes Joined: August 2009 |
    Monday 4:11 AM
Yes, 3-9. optimum throw. 7-9 too dangerous to the crib. Esp. when so far behind. |
Gougie00 5724 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Monday 4:39 AM
I'll chance the 7-9 toss. Lead a 5 and play defense. |
zeke76 1390 votes Joined: August 2018 |
    Monday 6:26 AM
keep the 5s and try to balk the crib. |
Jazzselke 2583 votes Joined: March 2009 |
    Monday 7:08 AM
Dealer is marginal so we can get back in this game if a couple cuts go our way and opponent slows up. |
JRCeagle78 1054 votes Joined: June 2016 |
    Monday 8:36 AM
with 16 X cards and 4 6's available, I'll toss the 9-3. I would like to keep the 3 but 7-9 can be too dangerous with me being 16 holes down already. |
dgergens 938 votes Joined: January 2018 |
    Monday 9:12 AM
I think everyone basically said or is thinking the same thing. Have not seen JQT in a while. Guest says: He in town getting a haircut |
glmccuskey 4095 votes Joined: April 2011 |
    Monday 9:53 AM
With fourteen points and dealer at 45 I’ll peg as defensively as I can but I’m forced to lead a five wasa says: Curious why lead a 5. I'd lead the 7 as there are 15 face cards / ten cards vs seven 7s/8s available for opponent to peg off of me. joekayak says: Leading a five from the triplets insures we won't be left with them after leading our 7. Too easy for the to get trapped when they are all we have left. Lead one of the fives.
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Coeurdelion 5589 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Monday 11:44 AM
3-5-5-5 or 5-5-5-7?:
3-5-5-5: 8pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.26) = +2¾pts 5-5-5-7: 8pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.87) = +3¼pts Potential: 3-5-5-5: Improves with 2222, 333, 4444, 5, 777 + 16xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 14/17/20pts with 2222, 4444, 5, 777 + 16xXs = 28 cuts. 5-5-5-7: Improves with 333, 5, 6666, 777, 8888 + 16xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 14/17/20pts with 333, 5, 6666 + 16xXs = 24 cuts. Pegging: I think 3-5-5-5 will peg slightly better. Position: We're well behind so I'll play Offense to catch up. Summary: 3-5-5-5 has better potential with 28 cuts for 14+pts whilst 5-5-5-7 has only 24 cuts. However the 3-9 discard is safer than 7-9 and so it starts with ½pt more (Schell: 0.39). It will be close but I'll throw the safer 3-9 |
joekayak 1873 votes Joined: May 2016 |
    Monday 11:44 AM
Cannot throw 7-9 into dealers crib. Lead a five. |
HalscribCLX 5312 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Monday 3:07 PM
At 29-45* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
________________Our Offense___Hand__Peg___Crib___Total___W6 %____W7 % 5-5-5-7___11.83+1.15+(-4.44)=8.54____14.8____20.9 3-5-5-5___12.17+1.04+(-4.80)=8.41____15.7____21.6 5-5-5-9___11.17+0.91+(-4.33)=7.75____12.9____19.8 Offense______L6 %____L7 % 5-5-5-7______48.5____65.6 3-5-5-5______49.0____64.5 5-5-5-9______47.3____66.6 5-5-5-7 is slightly best for expected averages by 0.13pt but 3-5-5-5 is slightly best for Win %s and very slightly better than 5-5-5-7 for Loss %s. Both Win %s and Loss %s take account of the board position so I'll select 7-9 to discard. After the J cut I'll lead the 3 and play Defense: Lead______________Dealer's Pegging Pts. 3________________________(-3.42) 5________________________(-3.56) |
Ras2829 5146 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Monday 4:48 PM
Sixteen points down, won't chance the 7-9 discard. Most frequent discard made by dealer by far is 7-8. Don't like the 3-9 (by the way 7-9 and 3-9) are nearly identical as to average) either. Lot more chance that 7-9 discard will score 12 or more points to dealer crib. Will lead a five as would prefer to have the choice of playing 7 or five next play rather than have 5-5-5 remaining. If dealer scores 15-2 on my lead will drop another five for count of 20. |