Monday 3:16 AM

I'll want to keep all the fives, and I don't want to discard 7-9 either.
7+3=10, and with so many fives out of circulation, this could be safe(ish) I think?
Both could become 20 points after a 5 cut, but 5557 has a greater second highest value (17 after a 6 cut), than does 5559 (14 after an A or X).
5d lead.

Monday 3:22 AM

Decided to not toss 7-9 to opponent and keep this hand today. Statistics very close.

Monday 3:50 AM

I would like to add the possibilities of the four and two cuts but not at the risk of the seven-nine discard. Lead a seven and hope to muddle the pegging. dec

Monday 4:11 AM

Yes, 3-9. optimum throw. 7-9 too dangerous to the crib. Esp. when so far behind.

Monday 4:39 AM

I'll chance the 7-9 toss. Lead a 5 and play defense.

Monday 6:26 AM

keep the 5s and try to balk the crib.

Monday 7:08 AM

Dealer is marginal so we can get back in this game if a couple cuts go our way and opponent slows up.

Monday 8:36 AM

with 16 X cards and 4 6's available, I'll toss the 9-3. I would like to keep the 3 but 7-9 can be too dangerous with me being 16 holes down already.

Monday 9:12 AM

I think everyone basically said or is thinking the same thing. Have not seen JQT in a while.

Monday 9:53 AM

With fourteen points and dealer at 45 I’ll peg as defensively as I can but I’m forced to lead a five

Monday 11:44 AM

3-5-5-5 or 5-5-5-7?:

3-5-5-5: 8pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.26) = +2¾pts

5-5-5-7: 8pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.87) = +3¼pts

Potential:

3-5-5-5: Improves with 2222, 333, 4444, 5, 777 + 16xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 14/17/20pts with 2222, 4444, 5, 777 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

5-5-5-7: Improves with 333, 5, 6666, 777, 8888 + 16xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 14/17/20pts with 333, 5, 6666 + 16xXs = 24 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 3-5-5-5 will peg slightly better.

Position:

We're well behind so I'll play Offense to catch up.

Summary:

3-5-5-5 has better potential with 28 cuts for 14+pts whilst 5-5-5-7 has only 24 cuts. However the 3-9 discard is safer than 7-9 and so it starts with ½pt more (Schell: 0.39). It will be close but I'll throw the safer 3-9

Monday 11:44 AM

Cannot throw 7-9 into dealers crib. Lead a five.

Monday 3:07 PM

At 29-45* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Peg___Crib___Total___W6 %____W7 %
5-5-5-7___11.83+1.15+(-4.44)=8.54____14.8____20.9
3-5-5-5___12.17+1.04+(-4.80)=8.41____15.7____21.6
5-5-5-9___11.17+0.91+(-4.33)=7.75____12.9____19.8

Offense______L6 %____L7 %
5-5-5-7______48.5____65.6
3-5-5-5______49.0____64.5
5-5-5-9______47.3____66.6

5-5-5-7 is slightly best for expected averages by 0.13pt but 3-5-5-5 is slightly best for Win %s and very slightly better than 5-5-5-7 for Loss %s. Both Win %s and Loss %s take account of the board position so I'll select 7-9 to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the 3 and play Defense:

Lead______________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3________________________(-3.42)
5________________________(-3.56)

Monday 4:48 PM

Sixteen points down, won't chance the 7-9 discard. Most frequent discard made by dealer by far is 7-8. Don't like the 3-9 (by the way 7-9 and 3-9) are nearly identical as to average) either. Lot more chance that 7-9 discard will score 12 or more points to dealer crib. Will lead a five as would prefer to have the choice of playing 7 or five next play rather than have 5-5-5 remaining. If dealer scores 15-2 on my lead will drop another five for count of 20.