December 11, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
118*-114  ?
46%
14%
11%
10%
5%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 184
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:38 AM
Look to the more experienced players today for the best hand to hold in this position.
Guest says: Go for the double run !
cribbagepogo says: Huh? You are dealing 3 out and want 24 hand? I want to peg out!!!
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:06 AM
One of the each.
glmccuskey
4101 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:19 AM
I think the only choice is whether to keep the jack or queen. With non dealer needing seven points I think they would hold a jack vs queen if given a choice.
zeke76
1396 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:39 AM
Pegging puzzle. Kept a variety of cards.
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:44 AM
They may have had to keep a Jack to nab any possible points. dec
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:18 AM
Needing 3 pegs to win, will hold in this manner. If needed 4-6 pegs, would have held the double run. Ace-5 have high pegging value, 6-7-8-9 have moderate pegging value, J has low pegging value, and 10-Q-K have no pegging value. That's how RAS determines which cards to hold in situations where pegs are essential. Will take the first pegs offered since I need three.
Guest says: Would you pair if pone leads a 4? If they respond with another 4 and take six points, you're both in hole 120. The first go wins and I'd be pretty nervous about that with 5 spot as my smallest remaining card.
Ras2829 says: Hi Guest: If needing three pegs as dealer, would take the first two although pairing has greater risk than grabbing a 15-2. Have had very little success finding two pegs later in the play.
Ras2829 says: What are chances to limit non-dealer to 6 holes in pegs and hand score? The frequency is 1 of 6. So my take is to assume a BOLD pegging stance. Dealer averages 3.5-3.8 pegs. So the odds are heavily with the dealer to win this game by pegging. Am not considering the next deal. If opponent needed 9 to win, that would be a 50/50 proposition. Then might look at taking safe pegs only.
JRCeagle78 says: Guest asked if I would pair the 4. I would respond with the 6. If he had the 5 for 5 pegs, I could then respond with the 4 for the three peg win.
Ras2829 says: Hi JRCeagle: It's good to have a strategy before the play unfolds. Commend you for that. Even so, I would take the first two pegs offered.
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:31 AM
Generally, the lower the value of a card, the higher its pegging value. "Keep the four smallest" might be an appropriate tactic here then.
I'd like to try 4-5-6-J though, (the Jack specifically, for the reason explained by Gary and Dan), and am encouraged to see that others have thought the same.
wasa
3018 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:38 AM
I agree with the above, only I chose the Q vs the J for reasons I can't really remember. In hindsight, I should have kept the J as others have said, it is more likely to be kept by my opponent and I need points to peg out. RAS knows the odds, but I'm guessing my opponent has more than a 50% chance to have enough points (Don't have DeLynn's book with me...)
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:17 AM
Best variety. Amazing 6 commenters out of 8 have chosen this, but 42% with 4556.
cribbagepogo
3251 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:51 AM
I keep the J. People want the extra point and may hold that. I want to peg out.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 10:48 AM
There are 45% holding the double run and a total of 43% holding X-4-5-6. I'm in that camp. Keep the magic 11 and hope to use it. Hindsight and Ras says keep the J instead of the Q. Not sure it makes any difference. Am not pairing the J on a J lead any way.
Ras2829 says: Hi joekayak: Sure with the five spot, any X-point card should result in 15-2. If that didn't happen, non-dealer will retain a Jack with 6-7-8, 2-3-4, 5-6-7. On hands of less than 6 points, n/d will look at ways to retain the Jack. Anywhere on the board, the Jack is favored by non-dealer for the potential extra point. Kings, queens, and 10's are far less frequent in non-dealer hand. In this end-game scenario if n/d retained a 10, Q, or K, it is because they did not have a Jack or already had the 7 points needed to win.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 12:27 PM
I'll stick with the majority. There is no logical reason to keep both 5's, it can only lead to trouble.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Tuesday 12:52 PM
A pair or 15 and a go, that's all we need. Four different cards. Sounds stupid now that I think about it, not even sure why I thought this way, but tossed the J to eliminate possibility of me getting paired.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 1:13 PM
I think 4-5-5-6 may peg the best?
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 1:30 PM
At 118*-114 playing an Optimal strategy the chances of pegging out are:

Optimal__________Peg Out %
4-5-5-Q____________74.1
4-5-5-J____________73.0
4-5-6-J____________72.6
4-5-6-Q____________72.6
5-5-6-Q____________71.9
4-5-5-6____________71.5
5-5-6-J____________71.1
4-5-J-Q____________64.9
5-6-J-Q____________62.0
5-5-J-Q____________60.9
4-6-J-Q____________56.2

4-5-5-Q has the best chance of pegging out so I'll select 6-J to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829 says: Hi HalscribCLX: Very interesting and you are in that envied 1% bracket!
horus93 says: But why??? It seems to makes no sense to hold a pair of anything as dealer needing to peg 3 besides maybe a pair of aces. Too bad Halscrib can't speak for itself!