Today's results so far

*** This hand was suggested by SallyAnn3
116-117*  ?
70%
20%
7%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 209
SallyAnn3Playing Gougie in ACC tourney--he cut a Jack!
glmccuskey
3389 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Wednesday 3:15 AM
I’ll keep the five points. I’ll lead the eight and ether pair a seven response or play my three if the eight is paired.
JQT
3069 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Wednesday 3:34 AM
This is a very difficult Relative Position, but sometimes such a predicament can actually simplify the Discard Decision.

I's Toss (T Q) and hope that we don't get that dreaded Jack Cut, which WILL occur about 9% of the time! It appears that it happened in the actual game, too.

A Dealer can usually peg close to Four Holes on average, and pegging half that much will almost be impossible to prevent.

While the Trey is the safest card to lead *in isolation* today, I think it will not hold back the Dealer, or allow us to peg out, as often as leading from the three-card RUN. I'll lead the 8 Card.

If the Dealer 'baits' me with a 6 Card Reply, I will PAIR it and not jump on the RUN right away. If we can get to Hole 118 with our second card played, then we are within *striking distance* to WIN with a PAIR and "go" combination, which might occur on either of our last two cards.

If Dealer holds any matching card, the game is likely over, unless we can get past the lead card and match the Dealer's Cards. And the Trey might help us peg out on some rare occasions.

Note: Had a Jack Cut occurred, I would probably lead the 7 Card, from the middle of our RUN. But a Dealer who starts at Hole 119 is very tough to defeat!
mrob2199
645 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 3:48 AM
Obviously keeping the 678 together-I think the Q can benefit us more than a 3 or 10 in escaping trouble-if dealer was dealt a 3 odds are very high he is keeping it,so a 3 in our hand would be detrimental here-lead the 8 and play off as best as you can
wasa
1957 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Wednesday 3:49 AM
Have to keep 5 points.
dec
5237 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 4:13 AM
Keep the fin and lead the eight . Odds are very low to pull this off. dec
Jazzselke
1784 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Wednesday 4:32 AM
Q is our best out card if the dealer also has middle cards, which seems to happen way too often.
Miss Sally, don't cut a Jack!
james500
2842 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 5:09 AM
6-7-8 for the points I need, the 3 for a safe lead.
mfetchCT425
834 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 6:02 AM
Kept the low cards but I see the reasoning to keep the Q. Will lead the 8.
Gougie00
4624 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 6:36 AM
I kept the 3 to lead it. If the dealer has one, I am dead anyway.

As I recall, that's what happened. A jack was cut and I paired what she lead. Extreme cribbage talent was exhibited.
Eolus619
333 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Wednesday 7:13 AM
Keeping the run seems best to me since it allows me to count out if dealer doesn’t do it first. The Q was my escape. For anyone who would like to brush up on pegging strategy, I recommend Barlow ..Cribbage for Experts ... starting on page 19. The what to lead decision we face today is directly addressed as well as what to do with other keeps. As Ras has mentioned often, have a pegging plan for every hand . btw..as I am learning to improve my pegging , the thing I am most pleased about so far is the rules only allow me four cards with which to self destruct.
Goatman
1706 votes

Joined: March 2017

   
Wednesday 7:48 AM
Kept the Q to escape. Rob has said it all for me.
Sally...never every cut the Jack when the dealer is this close to 121.
joekayak
1362 votes

Joined: May 2016

Wednesday 9:04 AM
kept the Q as an out card. Like it way better than the 3. What does Hal like?
RubyTuesday
707 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Wednesday 10:24 AM
Ras2829
4089 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 10:24 AM
Only way dealer can win this game is to peg four holes. How best to avoid pegs ought to be n/d main strategy, Play SAFE. Two-car magic elevens for non-dealer seldom show any sign of magic. The trey is a potential pegging liability. Best ditch a lone small card here as long as we can retain five points for first count. Lead the 7 to split the sequence and escape with the Queen. If retaining the trey is your plan to lead it or escape with it. Have queried this hand in prior times in this position on Cribbage Prof, and the Prof shows to retain 3-6-7-8. Without all the gears in my gearbox that the cribbot thas, it seems that 6-7-8-Q must give a better chance to limit dealer to three pegs and for n/d to win this game. Am anxious to see HalscribCLX choice this day.
RubyTuesday
707 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Wednesday 10:25 AM
I kept the run and the 3+8=11.
MiketheExpert
34 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Wednesday 11:15 AM
well, our obvious only concern here is that dealer not peg 4 points before we can count our hand/ None of the holdings are fantastic in our efforts. Really it seems no matter what we hold, we are going to have to lead the 3 and hope he does not pair it. Thus I chose to keep 6, 7, 8 as my next cards, thinking that he would more likely keep a face card together with a 3, and thus are more dangerous options for him to score 4 and peg out. Also, the most I can keep in my hand is 2 points if I am holding onto the 3, and even though it is dangerous, I really don't see a lot of options.