Monday 4:09 AM

We are Pone at Hole 43, barking that our presence be known, as we waddle midway up Second Street, leading the Dealer by Three Points, which means that our Opponent is Dealing Four Points 'shy' of the critical Second Street Par Hole 44.

We can probably secure a Positional Advantage if we place something 'toxic' in the Enemy Crib here. This should definitely remove Keep (A 4 T Q) and Toss (9 9) from our consideration, but what does it leave us as a good alternative in this 2023 Memorial Day RAS Puzzle?

We should not be too concerned whether we begin with Four Points or with Two Points, since we are only One Point 'shy' of the "target" that matters most to us here, especially if the Dealer can be denied those Twenty Points needed to 'catch up' and remain on pace to be positionally ahead of us.

Keep (4 9 9 T) and Toss (A Q) could maybe be safe enough, and our 4 Card offers some Negative Delta for added security, but is there something even better?

Keep (A 4 9 T) and Toss (9 Q) is even safer 'over the board,' and it also does minimal damage to our Hand, especially when compared with Keep (4 9 9 T) and Toss (A Q). We may have found the perfect poison!

Let's Toss (9 Q) unsuited, and revel in our ability to inflict untoward misery upon our hapless Opponent.

After the King Cut, we now once again have Four, perhaps ill-begotten Points in our Hand. Let's lead the 4 Card, and try to make the poor Dealer obtain only the obligatory One Point during the pegging.

Leading the 4 Card comes with some RESPONSIBILITY because it leaves us with a Lone Small Card! We often must rid ourselves of this card as our Second Card Played, lest we get into deep trouble when the Count exceeds Twenty-Two.

Imagine a Dealer who holds (A A 4 X), and naturally PAIRS our 4 Card Lead. Now, if we don't immediately 'jettison' the Ace, pegging will likely proceed: 4 (4) 4 (8=2) T? (18) X (28) A (29) A (30=2) 'go' A (31=8), 9 (9-1).

The Dealer has not only out-pegged us by a 12-to-1 margin, but in the process, has scored more than twice what was needed in order to reach the next positional target, and has done so just via our pegging blunder!

Leading the 9 Card is a more Offensive Pegging idea, but by leaving behind both Small Cards, it somewhat prevents us from being 'stuck' with a solitary, or Lone Small Card, which tends to make it Defensive as well. Or, we could lead the Ace and be rid of it!

I'm still going to lead the 4 Card, but I'll be ready to 'dump' that Ace next. Don't allow all of your Defensive Hard Work to spiral down that dreary, dreaded pegging drain.

Wordle 709 3/6 (a politician may regret messing with it)

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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

   

Monday 4:14 AM

Nothing on the menu I like again. I kept 99-10 hoping for an 8 or J. Once again the cribbage fairy isnt helping. Lead the 9? Next hand will have the pat 12 that requires no thinking.

Happy unofficial beginning of summer.

   

Monday 4:23 AM

This score is defensive, on the face of things, with dealer two points short of par, and with us having an 11 point surplus to win on an extra count. But 11 points isn’t much this early in the game, and these cards aren’t all that good. If the score were, say, 53-40*, I think it would be a no-brainer – toss the 9Q balk. But can we afford to do this at 43-40*? Playing defense with disregard to your own progression can definitely lose the game.

For me this came down to A4TQ (99) or A49T (9Q). Not wanting to miss anything, I also looked at A499 (TQ) and 499T (AQ) but didn’t like what I saw there – TQ and AQ are inferior balks to 9Q, and the hands they leave are worse than A49T.

The problem with A49T is that it scores 5 or less over 60% of the time. Then again, A4TQ scores only four nearly half the time, so it’s not really all that much better on that front, although at least it always scores four. On the cuts that do “hit”, A4TQ is stronger, but how much should we really value cuts for 8, 9 or 10 versus cuts for 6 or 7 at this spot on the board? And with the A4 magic five, I think either hand will frequently pick up 2 points in the pegging, and that makes the A49T’s inferior cuts a little less unnerving.

Weighing all this together, I’m going to make the “basic shorthand” play and toss 9Q. A4TQ is a better hand, but it’s not sufficiently better to throw 99, even though 99 is far from the most dangerous discard. (If it had been *6*9, I suppose I would have tossed it! Haha). The means say one thing, but the distributions and the position say something else. Even though I wouldn’t overvalue a balk, the higher shot at a

   

Monday 4:31 AM

Question to ponder? Is this playing too conservative ( a possible close loss ) or with these scores a more balanced game with possibilities of regaining a positional edge on that next deal. I choose the latter. Ace lead. dec

   

Monday 4:39 AM

Should be a popular choice with dealer at 40.

   

Monday 4:49 AM

Agree with the defensive posture at this position, Q9 fills the bill. AQ or 4Q could be compromised by the popular 23 discard.

   

Monday 5:17 AM

Maximum defense, and am not too much concerned with my own hand score here. (9 Q) is a great balking throw. K cut seems apropos, feeling that dealer may put a 5 into the crib, so I still may expect a 4-pt crib coming. The hand is only moderately good for defense, and unlikely to earn more than 1 pegging point, if that. Let's lead the 4 and continue our strategy of trying to hold dealer short, since we should be dealing from good position next hand.

   

Monday 6:12 AM

I'll try to hinder my opponent's progress.

   

Monday 7:08 AM

Playing defense…it is A-Q or 9-Q… The latter is ranked #4 of Ras’s optimal discard to opponent list. btw..A-Q is on the list too…so actually i need to be careful here because I could over think this

For Me…Today is a somber day of remembrance.

   

Monday 7:15 AM

Defense all the way. If I am only dealing at 45 next hand, so be it. I will lead the lone Ace. Like MtE said; I don't feel that comfortable or strong on the pegging.

   

Monday 8:22 AM

I agree with those that picked this keep.

   

Monday 9:08 AM

I thought about tossing 99, but after looking up RAS’s chart on throwing doubles to pone’s crib, 99 ranked fourth. Decided to split them up.
JQT: your clues never spoil Wordle! But they have helped me once or twice squeak by on attempt 6, especially on those that have a million rhyming choices!

   

Monday 2:41 PM

I'll compare A-4-10-Q (9-9) and A-4-9C-10 (9S-Q):

A-4-10-Q: 4pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.39) = -2¼pts

A-4-9C-10: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = -2pts

Potential:

A-4-10-Q: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/9/10pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 101010, JJJJ, QQQ = 20 cuts.

A-4-9C-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 99 + 14xXs = 38cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 5/6/7/8pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 8888, 101010, JJJJ = 21 cuts.

Position:

We're 1pt short of 2nd street positional hole and Dealer is 4pts short. If we can keep opponent well short of 60pts at the end of this deal then we should be in a good position relatively. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think A-4-10-Q and A-4-9C-10 will peg similarly.

Summary:

A-4-9C-10 is best for starting value by ¼pt and it has more cuts for improvement and 21 cuts for 5-8pts while A-4-10-Q has 20 cuts for 8-10pts. So playing a Defense strategy I'll throw 9S-Q.

   

Monday 2:47 PM

At 43-40* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense____Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total_____W6 %____W7 %
A-4-9C-10___4.70+(-2.63)+(-4.09)=(-2.02)___33.7____49.2
A-4-10-Q____6.26+(-2.87)+(-6.16)=(-2.77)___37.2____47.7

Defense_______L6 %____L7 %
A-4-9C-10______30.0____30.1
A-4-10-Q_______35.9____32.3

A-4-9C-10 is better for expected averages by 0.75pt. and although A-4-10-Q is slightly better for Win %s A-4-9C-10 is considerably lower for Loss %s. So I'll select 9S-Q to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead the 4 and play Defense:

Lead___________Dealer's Pegging Points
4_______________________(-2.13)
A_______________________(-2.16)
10______________________(-2.66)
9_______________________(-2.77)