Today's results so far

*** This hand was suggested by horus93
28*-30  ?
34%
30%
21%
10%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 243
Gougie00
5762 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:30 AM
Not liking anything on this menu. I'll toss 22 and not for some help.
horus93
1300 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Sunday 4:18 AM
Defensive position; but weak cards, so much so that I wouldn't give up much for defensive pegging, even if I would try to peg defensively. Still I think the "obvious" choices (22, 7K, the flush) are close enough to go with the best defensive pegger, which imo would be the flush. And checking Liam it's near a tie between these, though Liam thinks the two-pair choice is south by 0.3. Probably all good picks, really, but I narrowly like this one.
dec
6392 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 4:42 AM
Thanks for showing the discard as two clubs. Its early to regard relative positions but this time defense is my call here. Sometimes there are games when flush calls come up thru out. See what the lead here is and see if pegging 1-2 is the outcome here. dec
Eolus619 says: Morning dec..pick your brain question..if Pone leads a four what is your reply from the flush ..thanks
dec says: King dec
Eolus619 says: thx❗️
HfxKen
911 votes

Joined: February 2020

 
 
 
Sunday 5:07 AM
If pone leads an X card, I may go 31-4
Sgt Pegger
305 votes

Joined: July 2017

 
 
 
Sunday 5:48 AM
I think I'm gonna be sick looking at this hand! Rolling the dice for a 3 cut. It was either this hold or the flush, but I felt that overall, this hand and crib toss were the very slightly.... best option. Lead a 2.
Sgt Pegger says: Looks like I need to wake up....... I didn't realize we are the dealer here. Since this is the case, I will toss the Queens instead to my crib. Then I will hold the deuces until the last moment hoping to corner the pone for a 31 for 4 points at the end.
wasa
3048 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Sunday 5:56 AM
I like to flush!
Eolus619 says: wasa….and for further confirmation ..the sun..at least where I am..rose in the East
wasa says: There have been a few times I have not held the flush. It happens, but not that often!
Eolus619
1373 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Sunday 6:01 AM
Many situations like this in many games ..so it will be good to read the comments. Pone is short of CPZ #2. Will use one of Ras”s axioms..when in doubt flush..and go against another of his about playing the game without regard for a favorable cut….this keep has the most cuts of the three likely alternatives. When pairs are involved always worth a review of Ras’s “ best” dealer discard groupings. 2-2 is in the second group. Discards with either Ks & Qs are most frequent from Pone .. but with what is already showing the crib just might be minimal.

https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen6.asp
MiketheExpert
1153 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Sunday 6:10 AM
I'm keeping one of the 4-pt hands for sure, and the flush is certainly an interesting choice...But I'm going to choose the 2 pairs today, even though (7 K) is a poor throw. There is a higher chance for an 8-10 pt hand, and I don't mind getting a mid-card connector in the crib. I'm also hoping my low pair might be useful and earn me some additional pegging points.
MiketheExpert says: Tossing the Q's and keeping the 2-2-7 combo is another alternative choice that I think can also be considered.
Ras2829 says: Hi MiketheExpert: As is so often, like your thinking. Thanks for sharing your insights.
kal79
44 votes

Joined: April 2024

 
 
 
Sunday 6:56 AM
Let’s keep the flush. Another hand that’s tough to look at, but between hand and crib, I think we get the most out of keeping the four hearts. When keeping the flush, our hand or crib will improve with a 235678JQK, whereas when keeping 2-2-Q-Q, we can see improvement with A23578QK. So just a few more options with the flush. For either hand, a 3 cut is our preference.

Not much to do here with pegging other than sit on defense, so that’s what I’ll do. Playing off of any opponent pairs or runs, unless I can pair later in the sequence and guarantee a pair royale won’t be played.

Like I said above, a 3 cut would work well with this one. It would get us 8 in the hand and at least 2 in the crib but benefiting from an opponent X discard. However, given the 6 cut we got, we’ll have to settle for 6 in our hand which we’ll gladly take and hope for a better deal next hand.
Inushtuk1
1517 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 7:10 AM
The flush is probably very slightly better than 2-2-Q-Q(7-K) for expected averages not to include the pegging potential. But I also liked HfxKen's possible (31-4) with 2-2-7-K(Q-Q). I'm just not a big fan of tossing myself also ran pairs. To Bruce, if Pone leads a 4, I will play my 7.
Eolus619 says: Thx.Mike..I have been hesitant to reply with a seven since Pone can frequently lead from a pair..but I will ponder this
Ras2829 says: Hi Eolus619: Very true that n/d will most likely lead from a pair when held. Hands without a pair though are more frequent. Picking up a pair in six cards dealt is not as frequent as it seems. So, playing a 7 on a 4 lead is actually better, likely to end in less pegs for opponent. And making the count 11 when holding a couple of X-pointers is a very good plan in any case. Just might pair a X-pointer for 31-4.
Eolus619 says: thx Ras❗️
RubyTuesday
936 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Sunday 7:28 AM
I thought of lots of different options but decided to keep the flush because it seemed to have most scope for improvement (of course I might have got that wrong!)
LoneStarPegger
820 votes

Joined: January 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 11:10 AM
First, it’s Defense for me, and I’m thinking the Small hand rule applies here.
Coeurdelion
5624 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Sunday 11:53 AM
I'll look at 2-2-Q-Q (7-K), 2H-7-QH-K (2C-QC), 7-Q-Q-K (2-2) and perhaps 2-2-7-K (Q-Q):

2-2-Q-Q: 4pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.26) = 7¼pts

2H-7-QH-K: 4pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.58) = 7½pts

7-Q-Q-K: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.72) = 7¾pts

2-2-7-K: 2pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.79) = 6¾pts

Potential:

2-2-Q-Q: Improves with AAAA, 22, 3333, 5555, QQ = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 8/12pts with all cuts.

2H-7-QH-K: Improves with 22, 3333, 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, JJJJ, QQ, KKK = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 7/8pts with 3333, 5555, JJJJ = 12 cuts. Plus 9 heart cuts for 1pt. extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

7-Q-Q-K: Improves with 5555, 777, 8888, JJJJ, QQ, KKK = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/8pts with 5555, JJJJ, QQ = 10 cuts.

2-2-7-K: Improves with AAAA, 22, 3333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, KKK = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 6pts with 22, 3333, 6666 = 10 cuts.

Position:

Our target for next deal is 44pts if we reach 2nd street positional first as Pone. On average we should score 16pts so I would like to better this so I'll play Offense. Opponent on average will score 10pts so should be short of positional hole as Dealer.

Pegging:

2-2-Q-Q will peg better playing Defense but playing Offense the flush should peg well and be hard to read while 2-2-7-K has a 3-card magic eleven so will also peg well.

Summary:

7-Q-Q-K is best for starting value by ¼pt over the flush but 2H-7-QH-K has the most cuts for improvement and 12 cuts for 7/8pts and also has 0.20pt. extra potential for a heart cut; plus it will peg well. Therefore I'll throw the 2C-QC.
HalscribCLX
5347 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 11:53 AM
At 28*-30 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total___W7 %____W8 %
2-2-Q-Q____5.74+2.37+3.31=7.01____31.8____43.6
2H-7-QH-K__5.93+2.37+3.34=6.99____32.0____43.0
7-Q-Q-K____3.65+2.52+5.66=6.94____32.9____43.6
2-2-7-K____3.83+3.00+4.54=6.24____30.5____41.1

Offense______L7 %____L8 %
2-2-Q-Q_______33.0____34.7
2H-7-QH-K_____34.6____35.7
7-Q-Q-K_______34.2____34.9
2-2-7-K_______35.5____37.8

2-2-Q-Q is best for expected averages by a very slim 0.02pt. over 2H-7-QH-K and 0.07pt. over 7-Q-Q-K. Although 7-Q-Q-K is slightly best for Win %s 2-2-Q-Q is lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select the 7-K to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense).
Inushtuk1 says: The numbers don't add up here. We are dealer not Pone.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: You're right - something is amiss here as combined values ought to be dealer pegs + hand and crib scores. None of the totals come close to what they should be if choosing offense strategy. The totals don't even work if subtracting pegs as would be the case in a defense strategy. ???????
Ras2829 says: Or as would be the case if deducting crib scores.
Inushtuk1 says: Yup. I'm sicking with my flush.
Ras2829
5186 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 12:30 PM
As with a few other puzzles recently, holding the two pairs (large pair and small pair) has a slight edge. With opponent already at hole 30, no need for defense. Moving down the board best thing dealer can do although not wise to give up six to pair. So, take pegs without excessive risk. The blush would be my second choice. Will attempt to hold 2-2 intact for pegging at end of pegging sequence. If deuce is led, will pair. If Queen is led, will pair, if a five led, score 15-2. Oterhwise play off the lead.
Ras2829 says: N/d is likely to have the upcoming deal at hole 39-40, needing to have reached 2nd street CPZ (43-47). Let's not improve those chances with some reckless pegging.