Today's Results

Today's results so far

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829

			63%
			24%
			4%
			3%
			2%
			1%
Total votes: 164

I see A-4 and 8-8, but it's the suited 8-9 for me.

Congratulations to Jason.M of this parish, for his strong performance in the current season of the CribbagePro online tournament. Was ranked in 4th place last I checked.

Like keeping the 889 together to maximize a 7 or 10 cut-the ace 4 to our crib is a decent safety net if the cut misses our hand

With fifteen face cards unaccounted for I will go with A-4 . Going for the dozen . I do not think keeping an eleven count will aid that much in the pegging here being the dealer here. dec

Prefer A-4 than a pair of eights to my crib. Whether you chose 8-8-9-K or A-4-9-K more cuts keep these hands at 2 or 4 points.

I don't see anything obvious. I'll keep the 889 just in case a 7 or 10 gets cut.

There was nothing lost by outting A 4 in my crib and i kept the 8s with my 9

I think this would be a better puzzle (no disrespect to Ras) if you were not dealer. Then maybe 9K, AK, 4K are all reasonable options.

I wanted to keep the 8-8-9 together so A-4 it is. Offense in the pegging.

No reason to break up the 889, so A4 it is.

Keeping the 8 8 9 together

Putting a 5 in my crib from a junk hand, and keeping the possible double run together.

We are just rounding from First Street onto Second Street, with both a Positional Advantage as well as a Three-Hole Lead, and we are the Current Dealer to boot. Nothing to dislike here!

We can therefore afford to be a bit creative with our Discard Decision, and while this arrangement isn't awful per se, it does only lend itself to a few logical 'splits,' which include Toss (A 4), Toss (8 8), or possibly even Toss (8 9).

Toss (8 8) can be a confounding discard, and it's one of those that perhaps has one of the poorest ratios in which if it is placed into our Own Crib, its ability to help us, when compared to how likely it could be to help Pone, is rather daunting! However, it does have a Crib Value that is every bit as good as Toss (A 4)!

All that notwithstanding, when compared to Toss (8 8), is it worth throwing Toss (8 9) 'in its stead' if it costs us points in order to do so? I tend to doubt that! And so, we're really 'boxed in' today when, ironically the relative position does seem to permit us some flexibility! Such is Cribbage.

I have learned, however, to never lament those situations in which this confoundingly complex game helps us in reducing the 'pool' from with we are challenged to draw our conclusions into fewer choices. And today, I would suggest that it's as simple as comparing Toss (A 4) with Toss (8 8). Which is actually not quite as 'simple' as it looks!

Toss (8 8) 'breaks up' the seeming promise of (8 8 9) connecting with a Ten Card "T" Cut: but it's deceptive to analyze this accurately, because either a 7 Card or an 8 Card will *still* help considerably; it's just bound to help us LESS if we Toss (8 8) as opposed to retaining it alongside that 9 Card. But ... there's more.

Keep in mind, that Toss (8 8) would however expose this 8 Card PAIR to THREE unknown cards (the Two Cards discarded by Pone, as well as the Cut), while retaining this PAIR in our Hand *only* exposes them to ONE unknown card, namely the Cut Itself. This is important.

And as mentioned earlier, I find it difficult to contemplate 'breaking up' the PAIR itself if we were to Toss (8 9), so let's put that idea to rest. The fact that it even must be considered however might help 'nudge' us one way or the other when we consider those other two choices!

What remains is the logic that begs us to Toss (A 4); and while it's not to be confused with the much more powerful 5 Card combinations, those that we often like to place in our own Crib, and especially not to be compared with the much stronger Toss (2 3), we lack those better alternatives today, and thus if we want the coveted FIVE (or more specifically, cards that 'add up' to FIVE) in our Crib, then Toss (A 4) is what we've got.

Toss (A 4) gets the precious 'adds up to FIVE' combination into our Crib, and it also rids us of the "Lone" Ace, which is sometimes (although less so as the Dealer) a pegging liability. In fact, stowing the Ace into our Crib actually dismantles our only "Magic Eleven" of (A K), which will often score an easy (31=2) during the pegging. Remember, our 'Relative Position' does allow us some flexibility today. And (A 4) *still* 'adds up' to FIVE, whether we discard it or not!

Most players frown upon having to peg with a hand such as Keep (8 8 9 K), but the King is a handy "Out" card, to be used defensively if needed, and cards such as these can sometimes surprise us in their ability to peg against a few, selected hands of Pone. But Keep (A 4 9 K) will typically peg with a significant degree of added ease and do so against a far wider hands held by Pone, especially when compared to our only other alternative here.

It's not easy to draw a clear conclusion today, but I am often reminded of those hands in which we split up a (5 X), or a (7 8), or in this case, (8 8 9), and this is because a Helpful Cut is often likely to *boost* these cards whether they remain together or not! Consider an 8 Card or a 9 Card Cut: these will help (8 8) equally, whether those 8 Cards are in our Hand or in our Crib!

And if we Toss (8 8), even if a 7 Card "helper" does appear, it has twice the likelihood that it will appear from among those two cards thrown 'over the board' by Pone, as it does from coming after the Cut itself. Even if we did see that dreaded Ten Card "T" as the Cut, after Toss (8 8), we might *still* be hopeful that Pone launched a 9 Card in our direction.

And so, it's Toss (8 8) today, by a nose! I 'smell' a better begging opportunity, along with greater prospects for a good Crib, on the horizon. The cost of "being wrong" today is not too critical, given the current score, and the risk-to-reward ratio allows us to throw the PAIR, even if all it does is keep us a bit more excited to play out this otherwise plain-looking deal and hand!

I'd like to keep 8-8-9 together so I'll throw A-4. The alternative I think is keep A-4-9-K (8-8):

8-8-9-K: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 7¼pts

A-4-9-K: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.45) = 7¾pts

Potential:

8-8-9-K: Improves with 5555, 6666, 7777, 88, 999, 10101010, KKK = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/8/12pts with 7777, 88, 10101010 = 10 cuts.

A-4-9-K: Improves with AAA, 2222, 444, 5555, 6666, 999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 6pts with AAA, 444, 5555, KKK = 13 cuts.

Position:

It looks like we were First Dealer and have score 2pts above average and opponent has scored 1pt fewer. So I'll continue to play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 8-8-9-K will peg well but I think A-4-9-K should peg better.

Summary:

I estimate theat A-4-9-K has a higher starting value by ½pt but Schell puts them at being almost equal. A-4-9-K has more cuts for improvement and 13 for 6pts while although 8-8-9-K has 10 cuts for 6-12pts so obviously has a much better maximum. A-4-9-K may peg slightly better so I think these two hands will be quite close. Because of the better maximum and 10 cuts for 6-12pts I'll throw the A-4.

At 28*-25 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W7 %____W8 %
A-4-9-K____4.26+(-1.89)+5.40=7.77____34.3____52.3
A-4-8-K____4.26+(-1.85)+4.80=7.21____32.8____51.4
8-8-9-K____4.17+(-2.37)+5.38=7.18____34.0____51.8

Defense______L7 %____L8 %
A-4-9-K_______22.5____23.7
A-4-8-K_______22.2____24.4
8-8-9-K_______22.7____24.1

A-4-9-K is best for expected averages by 0.56pt over A-4-8-K and 0.59pt over 8-8-9-K. It is also slightly best for Win %s and slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 8-8 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

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