Sunday 3:29 AM

Not flushing today.

For the bonus round, maybe 6-9, Q-J and T-J?

   

Sunday 4:27 AM

Agreed. Why wouldn't I look for the double run? And a better throw to the crib.

   

Sunday 4:52 AM

I am taking the flush if the seven gets cuts. Discard choices 1. 6-9 2. 6-8 3. Q-J dec

   

Sunday 5:45 AM

First thing I thought seeing the submitter – “damn it’s going to be one of those impossible end-gamers”, relieved to see we are on third street because those puzzles are super hard.

This is no push-over either though.

(68) sucks, it always scores 0-4 for me. I know that’s superstition, but ‘tis true, just like TK to oppo does far worse for me than it should, and this does influence my play here and there. I know it’s irrational, but the game itself is highly random and irrational, so I don’t mind staying true to form, as it were, now and then, in close calls.

(69)… doesn’t exactly suck, but as Ras famously proved, is rarely worth a sacrifice of points, even though it starts with two.

(JQ), another toss I don’t like much, like (34), it is very boom/bust and usually fails.

But (TQ) is a *very* lame toss, no denying that, the worst of these four, because barring luck with the cut you won’t often see a Jack or five in the crib from pone, though with pone at 85 either of these is more likely than normal.

The position is, in theory, defensive, but these cards are SO bad that I may be forced toward “cautious offense” depending on the cut. I’d rather be at 89-97* than 87-94*, because in the case of the former I at least have more of a buffer for defense, while in the case of the latter I’m more likely to be forced to play on, which is perilous at such a score. Orbitals is against me here – it thinks the former is 5% worse for us. But its percentages are based on a theory of position that may be wrong, and these scores are delicate and controversial.

Well, I’m going to throw in the towel and do the basic thing, it pays to flush, start with six, diversity of cards for offense or defense, though I am sure there is something to be said for the more oddball throws.

Checking Liam, it looks like a tie between 689T (JQ) and the flush for hand+crib. Boom/bust throws like JQ and 78 seem to have some of the biggest margins of error as crib tosses. Hessel has the gap at 1.5, Colvert at 1.3, Ras at 1.6, Liam at 1.3 with delta factored in. And the distributions don’t differ much either, per Liam, between these keeps. So I would call it a toss-up for hand+crib.

For pegging – 689T versus [689J], I do not see a big difference here on offense or defense. So I for one will call this a tie. But good on JQT for vindicating a toss he’s always liked.

With heel, eight points in hand, and TJQ?? In the crib, I will play as defensively as I can.

Ace lead – I like the eight, split up my hand.
Deuce lead – I like the nine, he might play a X next and I close out the count with a 31
Trey lead – No nine for me, such a bias to lead from a pair, especially with treys which are hard to parley. I will play my eight.
Four lead – Play the nine, get a cheap 31 on a X reply, works all the time.
Five lead – Nice try friendo, I will play the nine. Why not the eight? I just think a five is marginally more likely to be found together with a deuce than with an ace, and the nine drives up the count more.
Six lead – I’d take the fifteen, “escaping” with the Jack seems like it will set us up for more trouble down the road as he may well be holding mids.
Seven lead – there is risk in escaping right away, just as with a six lead, but I would still escape with the Jack, hopefully pone expends another mid and I get away with my 689.
Eight lead – Jack, even though this is often what pone is gunning for with an eight, seems best to me.
Nine lead – take the fifteen with the six, get a 31 if he pairs.
Ten lead – awkwardddd. I’ll plug my nose and play the “bad six” and risk the 31.
Jack lead – play the eight
Queen, King lead – play the nine.

As for the bonus, obv like the flush best, and would like JQ second, hard to pick a third, others don't look very appetizing. Probably 69, though I am wrong in this, as Liam puts it in fourth to 68.

   

Sunday 6:03 AM

Defense to the lead.

   

Sunday 6:18 AM

Well, I'm not going to be seduced by the flush, when I can hold a four card run and give myself a 6-8 in the crib. But, wow!, I seem to be in the minority, 7%, on this choice. As for CribPro, started out with (81*,85) and ended up with (96,99*) - gained a point which is not too impressive given that it was my crib. I played my friend yesterday - 3 sets of a race to 3, plus two games of "toss five" (any fives you have must be discarded to the crib! - indeed, a vicious game) and we came out totally even after six hours of play. To be sure, we had some very interesting hands and some big surprises on first and last hands.

   

Sunday 6:45 AM

keeping the 5 points. Not crazy about J-Q, but people like me are renown for tossing Kings in the other guy's crib

   

Sunday 7:24 AM

Interesting hand. The flush in a sense is "good" enough here, as I'm well into position, and leaving the gap in ranks actually may help me avoid giving some pegs away, so it almost becomes like an "off-the-hook" kind of option. Sorry, just feel I'm losing too much by not maintaining the run and getting that J in my crib with the much-preferred crib throw of (J Q). I can manage well enough defensively with this. The J cut only adds 1 point to my hand, but still gives me a bursting with potential (J-J-Q) combo in the crib (as well as an extra 2 points). Defense should be played to the lead. No pairs, and no play-ons which can result in runs for pegging exchanges (as much as possible!)

   

Sunday 7:46 AM

I listen to my mentors, and Selke taught me to get the J/Q or J/10 into the crib because of all of the 10/k and 9/Q tosses. I'm going with that and still holding for a possible double run. He and Rob qualfied at th Campbell Memorial yesterday :)

   

Sunday 8:40 AM

Dealer discards considering only combined values with no regard for win/loss % are: (1) J/Q; (2) 10-Q; and (3) 6/8.Only serious consideration as a discard was J/Q. The 10-Q was not a serious thought - terrible choice because of low crib score. The 6-8 with crib average lower than J-Q by .2 was not considered. With that Jack starter card, two points for turning, 10-Q might have worked just fine. In either case, the Jack added value to hand and crib. With opponent at 85, choice of strategy is defense, take safe pegs only. Limiting n/d movement down board (not allowing n/d to reach 4th street CPZ of 95-99) is the best thing dealer can do on this hand. If successful, dealer will gain positional advantage, so critical on 4th Street.

   

Sunday 8:41 AM

Got 8 and a sure 2 in the crib.

   

Sunday 8:56 AM

I'm wery surprised that this discard isn't more popular this morning.

   

Sunday 9:42 AM

As far as the strict evaluation of Expected Averages, I think the order might go Toss (J Q), Toss (T Q), and then Toss (6 8), but Toss (J Q) is only worth a few tenths of a point more than Toss (6 8).

If we are however looking at the Relative Position, I would change the order and pick Toss (6 8), Toss (J Q), and Toss (T Q). I like the longer, four-card RUN of 9-T-J-Q for possible growth, as it yields Ten Points or more after Sixteen Cuts (5555, 999, TTT, JJJ, QQQ).

Thus I'll Toss (6 8) and pick this latter inversed order, but I am mostly interested in how others decided this.

   

Sunday 1:09 PM

Sometimes is does NOT pay to flush—like if it’s just liquid and your septic system is stressed.

   

Sunday 3:03 PM

I think the hand to beat is the flush, starting with 6pts. So I'll look at 6-8-9-J (10-Q), 6-8-9-10 (J-Q), 8-10-J-Q (6-9) and perhaps 9-10-J-Q (6-8) is also worth looking at:

6-8-9-J: 6pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.31) = 9½pts

6-8-9-10; 5pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 9¾pts

8-10-J-Q: 3pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 8¼pts

9-10-J-Q: 4pts + 4½pts (Schell: 4.63) = 8½pts

Potential:

6-8-9-J: Improves with AAAA, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJ = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 10/12pts with 666, 7777, 999, 101010 = 13 cuts. Plus 9 diamond cuts for 1pt extra for his nob and 1pt for the flush = 2x9/46 = 0.39pt.

6-8-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJ = = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 9/10/12pts with 666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010 = 16 cuts.

8-10-J-Q: Improves with 5555, 7777, 888, 999 + 13xXs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 8/9pts with 5555, 101010, JJJ, QQQ = 13 cuts. Plus 9 diamond cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

9-10-J-Q: Improves with 5555, 666, 888, 999 + 13xxs = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 10pts with 5555, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQ = 16 cuts. Plus 9 diamond cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

Position:

We should reach 4th street positional hole this deal but on average opponent will be at 95pts, just 1pt short, as Dealer next deal so will have positional advantage. I think we should play Defense to try to hold them back.

Pegging:

I think the flush will peg best playing Defense and be hard to read.

Summary:

6-8-9-10 has the best starting value by ¼pt over the flush while they both have the same number of cuts for improvement. 6-8-9-10 has 16 cuts for 9-12pts and 6-8-9-J has 13 cuts for 10/12pts plus an extra 0.39pt. for a diamond cut. I also think the flush will peg slightly better so I'll throw the suited 10-Q.

   

Sunday 3:04 PM

At 81*-85 playing Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pones
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W3 %____W4 %
6-8-9-10___7.13+(-2.04)+4.58=9.67____45.5____46.3
6-8-9-J____8.30+(-2.09)+3.13=9.34____45.5____46.1
9-10-J-Q___6.57+(-2.22)+4.74=9.09____45.3____48.6
6-9-10-J___7.04+(-2.04)+3.14=8.14____37.8____44.3
8-10-J-Q___5.22+(-2.39)+5.10=7.93____39.3____45.7

Defense______L3 %____L4 %
6-8-9-10______47.6____38.7
6-8-9-J_______48.3____39.1
9-10-J-Q______44.5____36.2
6-9-10-J______46.2____42.0
8-10-J-Q______45.1____40.2

6-8-9-10 is best for expected averages by 0.33pt. over 6-8-9-J and 0.58pt. over 9-10-J-Q. However 9-10-J-Q is slightly best for Win %s and significantly lowest for Loss %s. So as we're approaching 4th street positional hole I'll decide based on Win/Loss %s and select 6-8 to discard.

After the J cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Sunday 3:52 PM

Love the flush; if I'm Pone. Because I know how often (10-Q) yields a 0 to 2 point Crib to my opponent. So I assume it is the same to *my* Crib. So let's keep 6-8-9-10(J-Q)

   

Sunday 4:53 PM

Flush