Thursday 3:13 AM

We are almost certain to lose this game, and so a part of me just wants to reduce Spread Points and more importantly, get across Hole 90 to avoid the SKUNK!

But if we were actually trying to sneak in a VICTORY from this awful position, we would have to play DEFENSE and "throw on the brakes" with either Toss (8 K) or maybe even Toss (Q K), since our Jack offers some Negative Delta.

I guess I'll punt and try Keep (6 9 J Q) and Toss (8 K), which could offer us either the best of both worlds, or the worst of all worlds!

After the 5 Card Cut, let's see if we can fumble and bungle this completely and lead the 6 Card.

   

Thursday 3:14 AM

keeping the three non-ten cards seems the best choice today. following a lead of 7 we score 15-2 and often 30-4.

on the lead of 8 we could play the J and then maybe we can drop out 6 on a 7.

9jqk has the best hand for points, but it's a really horrible pegging hand. 69jq isn't too much better either.

we might only have 2 points, but the qk is reasonably defensive and other hands aren't too much better.

ok I suppose the beginner's trap here is the jqk hold, which gives 3 points rather than 2, but 68, 69 or 89 are all horrible discards to be throwing to opponent's crib, and three X cards isn't a good thing either.

   

Thursday 3:22 AM

Chose to keep this hand as it had the most cuts for improvement to a maximum of 9 points. Unfortunately the five cut wasn't helpful by giving opponent at least 4 points in their crib!

   

Thursday 3:33 AM

We are in a very tough spot here-we need a very good hand to get even close to position for our next deal,and the dealer is already in very good shape even if gets somewhat below average hands-with our cards here the best we can hope for is an 8 or 9 point hand with a picture or 5 cut(and the 5 we don’t want)-that won’t put us close to our position as we can’t hope for too much pegging with that hand-so it’s all or nothing defense today-we have a J to keep 1 helpful card away from our QK discard-let’s hope for a 6,7 or 9 cut to grow our hand from 2 to 6 or 8-and provide no immediate help to dealers crib.the 5 cut obviously ruins our plan but that is completely out of our control

   

Thursday 3:35 AM

Once again its more about where they end up here and hopefully keep them only in the mid eighties. As far as a pegging hand hopefully not a matching type here. Six lead. dec

   

Thursday 4:06 AM

An obvious observation, but any cards I put in the crib either will/won't work with Dealer's discard or the starter card. On that basis, two similar cards to the crib, (such as Q-K here), will either both be helpful, or both be useless.

With the 5 cut, we know which of those outcomes it was today!

   

Thursday 4:21 AM

Baffled here but got the Cut I needed

   

Thursday 4:27 AM

Doh... I should have tossed the 68.

   

Thursday 4:43 AM

I like the throw of QK. More options for mw - less for dealer.

   

Thursday 4:58 AM

Hmmm... based on my Monte Carlo algorithm, with this hand, the 6-8 toss has the highest average scoring of 6.95 and surprisingly the seceond highest at 6.81 is the 6-9 toss.

Excellent show-card.

   

Thursday 5:57 AM

Liked the Q-K toss especially with one of the Js out of circulation. 8-K was my 2nd choice.

   

Thursday 6:10 AM

K Q to dealer for at least 4 points with that horrible turn up. In the days before I came to this page I’d have thrown 6 8...

   

Thursday 6:29 AM

QK very often 2 points, but there are those times...

   

Thursday 7:11 AM

To me, this is all about position. I need a shutdown throw, and KQ is that... until the 5 cuts. I’ll stick with defense all the way here, lead the 6 and hope for just 4 in the crib.

   

Thursday 7:11 AM

Looking @ board position I decided on Defense . I see other experienced players picked the same approach. The current dealer doesn’t even have to achieve the cycle averages to be counting first above 110 in four hands ( counting this hand) While the 6-8 statistics give Pone the highest potential average hand count it also gives dealer the 2nd highest potential average crib count. I don’t see how playing defense and significantly aiding dealer’s crib are compatible. So,I decided that choosing defense and then discarding cards that can produce a high potential average ( and max) crib is not the way to go. Now...bad cut card luck...the Five cut just may end up getting me defeated quicker

   

Thursday 7:20 AM

   

Thursday 7:21 AM

Tried to balk the crib with 8-K

   

Thursday 8:38 AM

Agree with the all out defense approach. I've learned that it's not worth trying to hang onto two points when they really won't make a difference and could really hurt us. So I went with 9-K instead of 8-K or Q-K. I did make a slight accommodation by keeping the touching J-Q instead of tossing 9-Q. My second choice was 8-9.

   

Thursday 9:27 AM

I may not be able to stop the dealer with this hand, but I may be able to slow him down a little. 8-K seems the best discard to make that possible.

The 5 starter card is not what I wanted to see. I will try to make the best of a lousy situation and lead the 6. If he does not play a nine or a queen this can be a rough hand.

   

Thursday 3:31 PM

We're at 77pts, 7pts past positional hole, so I think we can afford to play Defense. We could go all out and throw 9-K but I think we can keep 2pts and throw 8-K.

   

Thursday 3:40 PM

At 77-76* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W3 %___W4 %
6-9-J-Q____3.91+1.52+(-4.13)=1.30____5.4____17.4
6-8-9-J____4.24+1.43+(-4.54)=1.13____6.0____16.9
6-9-J-K____3.83+1.33+(-4.25)=0.91____5.1____16.7
9-J-Q-K____5.17+1.17+(-5.53)=0.81____6.7____15.2

Offense______L3 %___L4 %
6-9-J-Q_______24.9___64.2
6-8-9-J_______27.6___65.1
6-9-J-K_______25.3___65.0
9-J-Q-K_______31.6___67.8

6-9-J-K is best for expected averages by 0.17pt and although it is very slightly lower for Win %s to 6-8-9-J it is appreciably lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 8-K to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the 6 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Pts.
6___________________1.31
9___________________1.22
Q___________________1.17
J___________________1.13