Today's results so far

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
118*-113  ?
48%
19%
11%
10%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 186
Rosemarie44
1643 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Saturday 3:16 AM
These end game positions always seem to throw me as I am not playing cribbage very often. let's see what others choose for retention and discard.
JQT
2910 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Saturday 3:32 AM
Pone needs Eight Points to WIN, and we could try to play DEFENSE here, but Ten Points is average for Pone, and usually about Two Points of that Ten comes from pegging.

Thus, what we definitely should have more CONTROL over is our own forward movement, since we need just Three Points Pegging as Dealer to WIN, and the average is closer to 3.5 Points. And having been dealt no Jacks, we have 4 DIV 46 equals 0.087 or nearly a 9% chance of Cutting Mr. Jack!

A Jack Cut solves all of our problems today, since Dealer shall *always* peg at least One Hole - that is, unless Pone pegs out first! And Pone would have to jump through magical hoops to peg Eight Points without us getting one lousy hole in the interim.

So, how can we peg Three Holes (assuming that 91% of the time, we shall NOT Cut a Jack) with four of these six cards? Good question! The PAIR of Tens is the least likely rank to show up in Pones Hand, as we were dealt HALF of these.

Thus, I am initially inclined to Keep (2 3 Q K) and Toss (T T). The points and even the Cards in our Crib have no bearing whatsoever, and even if we held only a combine total of Two Points, we shall always either peg that Third Point or lose if we don't peg out FIRST.

And so we could even do something as silly as Toss (3 Q) and still be assured of having enough points, should Pone falter. But back to reality: should we jettison the PAIR of Tens?

One or both Tens could help us in at least two ways: If we hold a PAIR until last, we may see Pone run out of cards, and then PAIR ourselves. This however is extremely unlikely with a Deuce and a Trey, so that plan would require Keep (3 T T Q) or even Keep (T T Q K)! I don't like either of these.

Or, we might Keep (2 3 T Q) and use the Ten Card in order to possible "trap" a Jack and peg a RUN. While this is unlikely, we need as many "unlikelys' stacked together in order to pull out a VICTORY today, so let's try Keep (2 3 T Q) and Toss (T K).

Our only burden is pegging those Three Holes, and I'm not so confident we can do this any large percentage of the time today. But our goal is to at least attempt to maximize our possibilities.
dec
4954 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Saturday 4:00 AM
I am thinking opponent more then not likely to Keep a King in their hand. I will keep four different rankings a nd pairing is my first strat. Next hope to peg on an end run. Last hope to only got a minimal hand with no cut here for them. dec
thelawnet
226 votes

Joined: January 2020

   
Saturday 4:02 AM
the possibilities today:

50% ish, pone has 8 points, and wants to stop us pegging 3 points at all costs

20% ish pone has 6 or possibly 7 and needs to peg 2 or maybe 1

20% ish pone has 4 or 5 and needs to peg probably 4 or 3

So MOST of the time we will be trying to peg 3 points.

And the rest of the time it won't necessarily be obvious if pone has made it or not

So the best hand is clearly the one that makes it easiest to score 3 points.

this is 23qk, since the t's are bad as we have two of them and less likely to be paired.

ttqk or similar is a terrible pegging hand because court cards are bad.

if pone was a bit further away, then we might prefer 23TT here, which has the best defensive potential.

But as 50% of the time we are on offense and there's no doubt whatsoever that 23qk is best for that, we'll hold the 23qk, and the slightly better defensive properties of 23tt when pone needs to peg 2 or 4, will have to be passed over.

some pegging stats here, which will be reasonably valid for us in that pone holds a normal hand in this spot - he can't pick a pegging hand, which would invalidate all assumptions, as he might at 119-119 or similar.
mrob2199
397 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Saturday 4:26 AM
Not the ideal pegging hand here -obviously we are keeping 2-3 but what picture cards to go with them? When I am dealer in a situation like this -needing to peg 3-I like to keep the pair and see if I can parlay them into 3 points at the end-it may prove to be tougher while holding a 2-3,but I can foresee a few scenarios where pone leads an ace or 4,and we respond with a 2 or 3,and they try to get away from trouble by playing a facecard-we then dump our other little card and hope the line has to use up both his remaining cards for the go
Mark6
51 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Saturday 5:40 AM
Wasn’t sure about which to toss K or Q . Love to see JQT , lawnet and mrob have 3 different solutions . Shows how complex this game is .
james500
2573 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Saturday 6:02 AM
Very likely to be a lone voice today, probably I'm guilty of over thinking it.

Since I've been dealt a pair of tens it's less likely my opponent has any, so they should be safe to peg with. I don't imagine Pone'd want to keep a King either, so again, if I keep mine it should be safe from being paired.
With X-X-X in hand, I'll want something different as an escape card. Often those on here warn of the dangers of a lone small card, so my fourth card will be the less small of the 2-3 non-X's.
Jazzselke
1538 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Saturday 6:53 AM
Hopefully we can pair a Q or K, or work some magic with the 23. If we needed more than 3 points would hold the 10s.
Eolus619
54 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Saturday 7:18 AM
Picking up on JQT comment from yesterday about extending the game one hand is not a viable option today. So it seems the way forward involves pairing options to help achieve 3 pegging points. Do I keep my 10s to try to create the pair that way or spread out my cards in hopes of pairing a pond played card ? Decided to go with trying to pair my own tens at the end of the sequence. Losing by two @ the end will be frustrating to say the least
ILostMyJob
2359 votes

Joined: September 2013

   
Saturday 9:16 AM
I don't expect pone to have 10s, and I do expect aggressive pegging defense. So I tried to maximize the chance to either pair a card or sneak in a 31-2.
Gougie00
4352 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Saturday 9:20 AM
One of the each. The opponent is unlikely to have a 10, so they get tossed into the crib. Obviously in attack mode and will pair anything. I can afford yielding a triple.

zeke76
666 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Saturday 9:27 AM
Went for a mix ... I doubt I can pair my own 10. Why I keep a 10 I’m not sure now that I’m writing.
cribbagepogo
2989 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Saturday 9:37 AM
In spite of all the brain power I am against. Think of this, we want to peg out. If I keep 2 10's what are the chances that pone leads one? Very small. Pone will not throw a K into my crib unless he is a rank amateur. No need to kill my crib. Three points good, four would have been disaster.
warquaker
10 votes

Joined: July 2020

   
Saturday 9:41 AM
Grunch: needing to peg out I keep four unmatched cards hoping to pair and then the automatic one for last card as dealer gives me the three points that I need for game.
SallyAnn3
122 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Saturday 9:43 AM
Keep what I need to go out....lead a 10 in case they are desperate enough to need 2 points...if they do, I'm out :)
warquaker
10 votes

Joined: July 2020

   
Saturday 1:43 PM
We know the cut but when we discarded we did not. His Heels saves the day 8.7% of the time.
Ras2829
3814 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Saturday 1:53 PM
Dealer can often get in a large pair to close the count. If not scoring two pegs with deuce or trey, still have the pair in reserve. mrob2199 says it all for me. Just an echo this day!
Coeurdelion
4275 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Saturday 2:40 PM
We need 3pts to peg out. I think I'll try 2-3-Q-K.
HalscribCLX
4039 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Saturday 3:09 PM
At 118*-113 playing an Optimal strategy (cautious offense) the Peg Out %s are:

Optimal_______Peg Out %
2-3-10-10_______58.7
2-3-10-Q________50.0
2-3-10-K________48.9
2-3-Q-K_________48.1

So I'll select Q-K to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.