Today's results so far

*** This hand was suggested by James500
98*-106  ?
52%
16%
14%
9%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 195
JQT
3488 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:01 AM
This should be a piece of cake. As the Dealer at Hole 98, we are a commanding presence in the Cribbage Arena.

Pone sits baffled and confused at Hole 106, as Pone should be, since Fifteen Holes requires punching a whopping 50% or Five Points above the Ten-Point Pone Average.

Still, we could have dealt Pone a Barn Burner (and when will players who say "Barn Burner" be called "Old Timers"? I keep waiting to hear some young player give me the, "Okay, Boomer" treatment, but it hasn't happened yet, at least not in Cribbage).

But we shall assume that Pone has maybe Eight Points, and maybe we'll allow Pone to peg Three Holes, Four at most, and we should be okay.

We dealt ourselves the proverbial Full House, which is better than Two PAIRS, even in Cribbage; it even beats a Straight!

We could either Toss (A 4), Toss (4 4), Toss (4 Q), or Toss (Q Q) today, and which Queens, it don't matter, as long as you don't sort your hand and then pull them from the edge, a maneuver that any sharp player will have picked up upon in your playing style during First, Second, and Third Street (which explains your poor Relative Position as Pone), so by now, you're possibly being read like a book!

If Pone comes up 'short' by Five Holes, we might get in our full Three Counts, or what tends to average about Twenty-Six Points, if we can tally our Pegging, Hand, and Crib as the Dealer, and then Next Deal another Pegging plus Hand as Pone.

But to feel more secure, I'd like our final tally of our Crib to place us at Hole 119 or better, and better means Game Over. The problem however is that these cards really don't guarantee us more than half of what we need.

Toss (4 4) is the most powerful Crib, and Toss (Q Q) is the least powerful Crib, but leaves us the best Hand; and Toss (A 4) is the "hybrid" solution I'm always warning players to usually avoid. But Toss (A 4) has some good prospects for growth.

Pone just might have to retain a hand such as Keep (2 3 X X), and if we Keep (4 Q Q Q), there's always a slight chance we could see Pone 'play out' all four cards, and so we might peg a massive coup of Nine Holes to finish the pegging.

Toss (Q Q) is a danger here, because those two Face Cards in our Crib might sink us. We're likely to get help from Pone in such a desperate position, but I doubt Pone will be forking over 5 Cards! And only one Queen remains.

Lastly, Toss (4 Q) looks awful for our Crib, with Negative Delta gushing from it like it's blown a gasket, and yet it leaves behind a good Hand, I believe. And Keep (A 4 Q Q) is probably the safest Pegging Hand.

The thing about this kind of Relative Position is that Pone will not be too careful about the discard in such a situation, as it's really "do or die" on the other side of the board today. This makes me believe that Toss (4 4) might find some unusual help.

Toss (4 4) gets help from three extant Aces and of course two 4 Cards, and in addition, any 7 Card adds immediate points. And the Cut Card could conspire along with any solitary Deuce, Trey, 5 Card, or 6 Card handed over by Pone to give us a RUN.

I'm leaning toward Toss (4 4), but it's a close call, and a tricky one to 'suss' out. We're really leaning on our Crib today, because the odds do not favor a Queen Cut, and a 5 Card Cut is what Pone usually needs!

After the 6 Card Cut, surprise, we still have just Six Points in our Hand, with "unknown" prospects in our Crib. But I do think we can WIN this game; I just think it's less likely than before I looked at our cards, and before I saw the Cut.

At least if Pone leads a Queen or a 5 Card, we know what to do!
Eolus619 says: As to barn burner, i think you become an old timer when you use the word humdinger frequently
bbaer1
3073 votes

Joined: February 2011

 
 
 
Sunday 3:03 AM
Getting rid of the lone Ace, thinking A-4 would be better in my crib than Q-Q.
Gougie00
5045 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:12 AM
Looks like another teaching moment today. I tossed myself QQ in hopes of a sizeable crib.
james500
3260 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Sunday 3:43 AM
I've no strong preference. Will we see 4-4, Q-Q and A-4h each with 33% of the vote when the dust settles this evening?
Eolus619 says: Greetings from the colonies James500. Very worthwhile puzzle…may not be a “right” answer…was a bit uncertain as what to do…so used Ras’s starr power groupings to make my decision. 4-4 it is.
james500 says: Hi Bruce, hope you're well. Thanks for the support. My 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 query seems to be well off the mark, with A44Q currently the recipient of over 50% of the vote.
dec
5665 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 4:01 AM
I kept the queen of clubs in case I play the four of same earlier. I think average wise this has the most potential. dec
Fender Bass
363 votes

Joined: July 2021

 
 
 
Sunday 4:36 AM
Ya, the 4/4 in the crib probably has more potential for a big hand than the A/4 but it's always tempting to toss 5 points in your crib.
scottcrib
961 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Sunday 5:05 AM
With three face cards in my hand, maybe pone doesn't want to keep theirs.
JQT says: Needing Fifteen Points to WIN, Pone will usually retain the very best possible hand when at Hole 106, and therefore in these kinds of Relative Positions, we often get some 'Surprise Help' in our Crib. Remember, if Pone goes out, as the Dealer, our Hand and our Crib will never get tallied. This means our Crib is often far above average because Pone seeks Maximum Points, but the challenge for us is we want to get to count our Hand and Crib! If we do get to count these, we should likely WIN, so Pone will do whatever it takes to maximize Hand, and not worry about the discard. For this reason, I like to Toss (4 4), as it stands to benefit most from Pone's predicament.
usacoder
956 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Sunday 6:34 AM
Toss a Queen pair or a Four pair? My algorithm scores the Queen toss at 16.03 and the four toss at 15.72. An Ace Four toss comes in at 14.76. Four Queen gets 13.84 and Ace Queen 11.89.
wasa
2376 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Sunday 6:57 AM
Interesting logic from posters.
Eolus619
679 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Sunday 7:22 AM
Ras’s dealer discard star power ratings made this decision for me. 4-4 has the most average potential. Why not adhere to his vast collection of evidence?

scroll well down the link to see his groupings

http://www.cribbageforum.com/YourCrib.htm
winesteward48
229 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Sunday 8:38 AM
I thought long and hard and selected this group of cards. Where was an X card when we need it? Now our opponent probably has a 24 hand. SIGH!
JQT says: The X Cards are numerous, but in the 52-card deck, they do only represent 16 DIV 52 equals 0.308 or about 31% of the entire deck. And, since we dealt ourselves three of those sixteen X Cards, the chances of the Cut Card being an X Card are now actually a bit lower, or 13 DIV 46 equals 0.283 or about 28%. This means that for every time you do cut an X Card, you'll NOT cut an X Card more than TWO TIMES AS OFTEN!
MiketheExpert
452 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Sunday 1:47 PM
Although the (4 4) is quite the better discard for the crib on average, I feel compelled to keep the (A 4 4) combo which improves by 4 pts on any face card cut. I am at hole 98, and don't think it is a time for a hope and a prayer - I don't particularly like the pegging keep of (A Q Q Q), and so playing it "straight" seems to be the best medicine here. With the 6 cut, it is hard to say which option would work out better here. My scant improvement gives me 8(hand) + 2(crib) + 1(pegging) at minimum, and I feel pretty good about being able to come up with a few extra and hope to count out next hand. Certainly have the comfort of being able to pair the 4th Q lead here, and I think possibly trading a potentil run of 3(if I can limit pone to that) for a 31-2 score with my Ace could be in my best interest.
Duby86
30 votes

Joined: May 2022

 
 
 
Sunday 5:03 PM
I saw nothing any exciting than what I did !