Sunday 3:13 AM

No cuts would put me out so I went with the other balking type discard here. dec

   

Sunday 3:22 AM

Dealer needs 23 against an average of 26. I'll discard and play defensively, to tip the scales in my favour.
K-6 leaves me with a less tightly bunched hand than K-10 would. Ace lead.

   

Sunday 3:35 AM

I am unable to get close enough to going out with this hand so I have decided to balk the opponent's crib with the T-K..Every cut increases this hand.

   

Sunday 4:38 AM

One of the top, if not thee top defensive discards, and every cut helps this hand.

   

Sunday 4:58 AM

Mike said it all here-also if we get a nice cut to 7 or 8 we have a very well disguised hand that could peg us close or over the finish line

   

Sunday 5:06 AM

As above

   

Sunday 5:40 AM

The hand says I am not getting to 121. Now best to try to make dealer face my board position problem next hand by holding his/her score to 109 or less. Toss the 10-K.

   

Sunday 5:56 AM

I guess I am not unique this morning. It was either AK of 10K getting tossed. Holding the opponents crib to 2 points is my goal. A356 should be a better pegger. Lead the 3?

   

Sunday 6:26 AM

I’ve chosen the most popular throw at the moment (A 3) which none of the other commenters have chosen. I’m not very good at seeing what’s going to peg well, and how to weigh that up with balking discards.

   

Sunday 7:06 AM

I've decided this hand is not worth sacrificing 2 pts for(to make a discard).

But because we'll need another hand to win, peg defensively.

If Opp were closer to the finish line - say at about 104, I'd discard the 10-K, and peg defensively.

Sunday 7:30 AM

Can't get a dozen easily, so going for pegging and balling the opp's crib. A-3 too dangerous to try to go for 8 or 10.

   

Sunday 7:43 AM

Wanna know how hard it is to keep your head in the game? I've been working with Ras on an article about defensive tosses for the February "Cribbage World." Based on Ras's data, the conclusion is that 10-K is absolutely the best toss to the dealer's crib when you need to slow her down. I literally had just put the finishing touches on this article when I turned to this CHOD puzzle. If anyone should have known the proper toss here, it should've been me. But instead of tossing 10-K, I kept these two cards with my 5 and tossed A-6. To channel Dierks Bentley: "What was I thinking'?"

   

Sunday 7:45 AM

As next dealer, I'm guaranteed 1 peg. How cool will it be to get a Go for 121? I love K-10ing my opponent, and if I chose defense today, that's what I'd do. But I chose offense (lest I fall short of pegging out to win the next hand, as pone will likely count out) and will press the gas and try to get 11 pegs in this hand, regardless of what pone gets.

   

Sunday 8:07 AM

11 total pegs, which is a bit more than average for non-dealer, so I wanted to peg aggressively (get 4 or more pts?) and also keep the points already in hand when discarding. An X flip card expectation seemed reasonable. Getting to 120 with 11 total pegs is the slam dunk. Even getting to 119 or 118 would feel OK: Another chance to peg aggressively.

   

Sunday 9:09 AM

Tough hand today!

   

Sunday 10:54 AM

I dont think I can win on this hand, defensive throw. I though about 10-K but I wanted to keep a X card as a escape card in the pegging.

   

Sunday 11:28 AM

Since my opponent needs 23 and is anticipated to get 26 in the next hands decided bold and hoping for a 4 or 5 cut and maybe peg a couple now or next hand.

   

Sunday 2:37 PM

I think there are probably three possible keeps - 5-6-10-K (A-3), 3-5-10-K (A-6) and A-3-5-6 (10-K):

5-6-10-K: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.07) = -1pt

3-5-10-K: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.91) = -¾pt

A-3-5-6: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 3.88) = -2pts

Potential:

5-6-10-K: Improves with 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/9/10pts with 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 101010, KKK = 20 cuts.

3-5-10-K: Improves with 2222, 333, 4444, 555, 7777 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/10pts with 2222, 4444, 555, 101010, KKK = 17 cuts.

A-3-5-6: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6/7/8pts with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 = 28 cuts.

Position:

We need 12 pts to get out so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think A-3-5-6 will peg best with three low cards and a mid-card.

Summary:

3-5-10-K is best for starting value by ¼pt over 5-6-10-K and 1¼pts over A-3-5-6. However A-3-5-6 has guaranteed improvement and 28 cuts for 5-8pts. Also it should peg best. So I think it will catch up the 1¼pts and even if we don't peg out this deal the Defensive throw will help us to peg out as Dealer on the next hand.

   

Sunday 2:43 PM

At 109-98* playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Net
Optimal___Hand__Pegs___Crib____Total___W1 %____W2 %
A-3-5-6____5.52+(-0.72)+(-3.78)=1.03_____9.9____56.8
5-6-10-K___6.26+(-1.04)+(-4.91)=0.31____14.4____57.2
3-5-10-K___6.17+(-1.33)+(-4.71)=0.14____12.2____58.5

Optimal______L1 %____L2 %
A-3-5-6_______6.4_____39.1
5-6-10-K______8.1_____38.2
3-5-10-K______6.4_____37.5

A-3-5-6 is best for expected averages by 0.72pt but 5-6-10-K is best for Win %s and 3-5-10-K is lowest for Loss %s. In this position I think Win/Loss %s are more important and 5-6-10-K has the best chance of Winning on this deal so I'll throw A-3.

After the J cut I'll lead the 10 and play Defense:

Lead________________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
10________________________(-2.88)
K_________________________(-3.00)
6_________________________(-3.39)
5_________________________(-3.49)