Today's results so far

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
53-54*  ?
30%
26%
23%
16%
2%
0%
Total votes: 267
Gougie00
5825 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:09 AM
In this position getting to hole 60 is paramount. I'll hedge tossing 3-6. Elsewhere on the board I'd toss 6-10 and go for the 20. Things arent that dire yet.
Its been one crazy July so far.
Eolus619 says: Morning Gougie00…The well know cribbage fairy is alive and well in Raleigh. Posted on the ACC Facebook is the score card of Michael D’elene..Coventry, RI..Before lunch he won 9/10..after lunch won 2/10..
mrob2199
1495 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Friday 3:40 AM
This is a good position to go for broke-a 10 to 12 point hand is always nice but in this particular spot it doesn’t do us a ton of good-the 4 cut would immediately put us in a great position-the 6-10 discard is a nice bonus as well
scottcrib says: I see you sneaking in as low qualifier. 😃
Eolus619 says: Posted on the ACC Facebook is the opening hand 0*-0 of Rob’s opponent ..His opponent’s six cards..5s…5h…6d…7h…7s…8s..does not say what the discard was …for extra credit what would you discard…No need to post an answer
dec says: I saw the posting. I take it the game was over . I am assuming Rob won that game and his opponent is questioning what they could have done . I went with the luck factor a dozen keep. dec
Eolus619 says: Clearly see you point dec..sacrificing four points to toss 7-8 or 5-8 not for me either
Eolus619 says: Rob has advanced to the final four today..🤞see how it goes
zeke76
1486 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Friday 3:48 AM
Decided keeping the 10 wasn’t worth what i was throwing over. And ill take the lucky cut.
dec
6472 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:52 AM
Defense with a big time hits possible here. Three of clubs lead here. dec
JQT
4175 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Friday 4:21 AM
Today, RAS sets us up on the 'quiet side' of Second Street, and deals us Two 🍐 🍐 PAIRS; and not just any PAIRS, but Treys and Fives! Say no more!

We can "take a chance" with Keep (3 3 5 5) and Toss (6 T), and be the benefactors of Eight Points or more after Thirty-One Cuts (2222, 33, 4444, 55, 7777, TTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), which is 31/46 equals 0.674 or what turns out to be a 67% or Two-Thirds of the Remaining Cards "Roll of the Dice"! It's not really "chance-taking" at all, it appears, especially with such a SAFE discard!

Those are frankly very good odds, considering that we have only Eleven Cuts (AAAA, 666, 8888) or 24% that are real losers, and of course after Four Cuts (4444) or nearly 9% of the time, we'll have Twenty Points!

Let's Toss (6 T) all day 🌞 long.

After the 7 Card Cut, well, you know the drill. We get a Dozen Holes. I'll tell you a little story about drills: Every year, all over the world, Black & Decker sells millions upon millions of drills. But nobody wants drills: What they want are 🕳 holes! And today, we shall score Twelve of them! Lead a Trey.

Wordle 1,133 4/6 (What do Houston and Toronto have in common?)

🟨⬛🟩⬛⬛
⬛⬛⬛🟩⬛
⬛⬛🟩🟩⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
JQT says: I would have no problem leading a 5 Card from (3 3 5 T), because a Magic Eleven in Cribbage is very often in actuality a Magic Twenty-One, especially when we are Pone. Thus 5 (5) X (15=2) T (25) "go" 3 (28) 3 (31-4)! Yet we cannot discard a 5 Card! But with (3 3 5 5), the three-card eleven of 3-3-5 is a bit inert, and we are frequently 'stuck' at making the Count become either Eighteen or Twenty after the Fifteen-Two has been scored, and thus I see many fewer ways to profit from this. Additionally, unless the Count can be pushed to Twenty-Two or higher, we are denied many of the "tricks of the trade" for setting up pegging traps. Therefore, I will lead a Trey from (3 3 5 5), and who knows; if the Dealer has (5 X X X) and is remiss and 'blows 🌋 a gasket,' we might even get to 'drop' our 5 Cards back-to-back in quick succession and out-peg the Dealer 10-to-1: 3 (3) X (13) 3 (16) 5? (21) 5 (26-2) "go" 5 (31-8)! 🤪 Ouch!
james500
4013 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 4:57 AM
I'd choose the 6 with the black 3 card.

All Ten #676
9/10
10✅ 9✅ 8✅ 7✅ 6✅ 5✅ 4✅ 3✅ 1✅ 2⬜

https://beastacademy.com/all-ten
glmccuskey
4187 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Friday 5:07 AM
I want the open ended chance for the double run. Would like to get as close to 70 as possible for my need deal.
sterno
496 votes

Joined: December 2020
 
 
 
Friday 5:40 AM
two pairs are dealt on second street in a close game. I kept the pair of fives and broke the treys.
Eolus619
1432 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Friday 5:50 AM
Me thinks Ras’s admonition about not playing for a favorable cut does not apply to today’s puzzle..Trying to get all ten Pone points here. Start with six..28 cuts get me to at least eight ..tame(?) 3-6 across the board ..Rob, dec & JQT are deciding differently from me..hmmmm
MiketheExpert
1214 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Friday 6:02 AM
Gutshot draw for 20 pts is not my main reason for keeping it this way today. In fact, whether on offense or defense I will hold the 3 3 5 5 if I can get a (6 10) in my opponent's crib.
MiketheExpert says: That 7 cut gives me a cool dozen, and I have no objections if we may try the 5 lead here, just to give us an extra chance on the pegging.
asevenson
2977 votes

Joined: August 2011
 
 
 
Friday 7:06 AM
I'm tossing the red 3 -6 to fake the flush. Not same suit to crib sp why not?
Sgt Pegger
363 votes

Joined: July 2017
 
 
 
Friday 7:15 AM
I like Rob's reasoning and at first glance was subscribed to his path as well but then I "flipped a coin" and landed on this path.

If we miss the cut that would leave us with 4 pts and some possible pegging pts. If we keep the 6 pts, we still have the cards to get us over the hump and still eek out some peggers plus we have the 10 to get us out of a trap.

Whether we keep the 3,3,5,5 or the 3,5,5,10 it leaves us with a 61% chance of getting a favorable cut card because the A,6,8,9 cards do not help us. So, faced with the same odds either way..... why give up 2 pts for a "roll of the dice" on a potential huge pay out with 1 card?

On the other hand, cutting into a 12 or better with the 3,3,5,5 is attractive.
usacoder
994 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Friday 8:20 AM
I score the 6-10 toss at 6.96 while either 3 with the 6 gets 6.74. Almost too close to call. The 7 sure helped.

I see a 3-6 toss has the majority of votes.
wasa
3101 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Friday 9:07 AM
Decided to balk the crib with 6-T
31for14
755 votes

Joined: May 2019
 
 
 
Friday 9:13 AM
Need some luck here. Either a great cut or bad hand and crib for your opponent. Giving myself a chance for both.
Eolus619 says: oh my goodness…great to see you comment..plz continue !
Assman
81 votes

Joined: May 2024
 
 
 
Friday 10:26 AM
I like it this way...TGIF!
Coeurdelion
5674 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 11:48 AM
I think it's between 5-5-6-10 (3-3)3-5-5-10 (3-6) and 3-3-5-5 (6-10):

5-5-6-10: 6pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.68) = -½pt

3-5-5-10: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.87) = +1pt

3-3-5-5: 4pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = -¼pt

Potential:

5-5-6-10: Improves with 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 10/12/14/16pts with 4444, 55, 7777 + 15xXs = 25 cuts.

3-5-5-10: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 55, 7777 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 10/12/14pts with 2222, 4444, 55, 7777 + 15xXs = 29 cuts.

3-3-5-5: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 55, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 8/10/12/20pts with 2222, 33, 4444, 55, 7777 + 15xXs = 31 cuts.

Position:

Ideally we'd like to deal from 70pts or more as Dealer next hand. This 17pts+ away so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

With two low cards and two 5s plus a 3-card magic eleven I think 3-3-5-5 will peg best.

Summary:

3-5-5-10 is best for starting value by 1¼pt over 3-3-5-5 but 3-3-5-5 has most cuts for improvement and 31 cuts for 8-20pts compared to 21 cuts for 10-16pts with 5-5-6-10 and 29 cuts for 10-14pts with 3-5-5-10. Also I think 3-3-5-5 will peg better. In terms of hitting our target 5-5-6-10 has 4444, 55, 7777, 101010 = 13 cuts for 12/14/16pts. 3-5-5-10 has 55, 101010 = 5 cuts for 12/14pts. While 3-3-5-5 has 4444, 7777 = 8 cuts for 12/20pts. Even so I'll throw the lower scoring 6-10 to opponent's crib.
HalscribCLX
5400 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 11:48 AM
At 53-54* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W5 %____W6 %
3-3-5-5____8.35+1.96+(-3.98)=6.33____27.9____23.0
3-5-5-10___9.09+1.35+(-4.33)=6.11____28.8____24.2
5-5-6-10___9.48+1.39+(-6.35)=4.52____30.5____19.8

Offense______L5 %____L6 %
3-3-5-5_______42.7____57.8
3-5-5-10______43.3____57.1
5-5-6-10______52.4____61.8

3-3-5-5 is best for expected averages by 0.22pt. over 3-5-5-10. Although 3-5-5-10 is slightly best for Win %s and about equal for Loss %s as it's still early in the game I'll decide based on expected averages and select 6-10 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead a 3 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Points
3_______________________1.76
5_______________________1.62
Ras2829
5244 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Friday 12:19 PM
Choosing offense to include the pegging points the way to hold the two pairs. Although 3-5-5-10 has the better potential hand score, holding four cards of high pegging value, and discarding the low-scoring 6-10 more than compensates for the larger hand with discarding 3-6. Lead the 3C and take any pegs offered. HalscribCLX analysis shows why 3-3-5-5 has a slight edge.
JQT says: Nice Puzzle, RAS! It would be very interesting to examine those Relative Scores at which we would NOT choose to Toss (6 T), as those I would think should be unique. Maybe at (113-114*) we might Keep (5 6 T T) and Toss (3 3) for example, since this produces the highest Expected Value of our Hand, at about 9.5 Points. Others can maybe try to find a score at which we might Toss (3 6) or Toss (3 T), if any exist! The best Defensive Pegging, according to Rex Crib, is after Toss (5 5)! Therefore, maybe at (118-118*), we should Keep (3 3 6 T) and Toss (5 5). If Hal was still releasing updates to his program, this is the kind of adjunct tool that I would be asking him to develop: show all the different hypothetical scores at which all other possible discards are viable candidates. It would simply require an iterative process to be performed on the existing data. It's so sad that the source code of the program is no longer in existence.
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Thanks and appreciate your additional thoughts. You know how much I value the contribution that Hal Mueller made to this wonderful game. Am deeply saddened that so many have missed out entirely on the wonders of his cribbage tutorials. Many of the commonly used cribbage programs are so inferior that average players win 60% of the time. Looking back, Bruce Bowman's "Cribbage Master" program of about two decades ago was superior to most of the offerings currently accessed.
RubyTuesday
987 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Friday 2:20 PM
I thought the same as asevenson.