Wednesday 3:20 AM

Lets try it this way. Might learn something today.

   

Wednesday 3:46 AM

I think more growth potential than the flush between the hand and crib, but like Gougie said, maybe I’ll learn something.

   

Wednesday 3:49 AM

I'll usually give a FLUSH about One Point of an advantage over an otherwise equivalent alternative choice, but in this puzzle, we are just beyond the Third Street Par Hole 70, while Pone is trying to reach the Next or Fourth Street Par Hole 96 by completion of this deal. Let's think defensively and try to prevent this! Toss (6 7) exceeds the Crib Value of Toss (2 4) by nearly half a point, so let's Toss (6 7). After the 8 of Spades Cut, our Hand is Six Points, with prospects for a very good Crib.

   

Wednesday 4:53 AM

As the behind player in a double marginal, we have to play offensively unless the cards/cut are really strong. Holding pone back is pointless if we don’t stay on pace to win in n. Imagine if the score was 95*-108, and you play defense passing up points in the pegging, and end up at 106-116*. That’s probably a loss. And on third street the defensive considerations are even lower, because the game is not at all done merely because oppo is dealing from ~95* next hand. And let’s say we play offensively and give up points in the pegging, and the score next hand is like 89-96* - at least we have some sort of buffer to hopefully play defense. JQT is as usual quite wrong about choice of strategy – he does not understand these scores, and never has.

So we have to start with the highest min and look at offense in the pegging at least before seeing the cut – none of the tosses are strong enough to break the “high min” rule of thumb. 2679 (44), 2447 (69), [4679] (24), 2449 (67). I have a weird penchant for tossing 69 to opposite dealer, but not in my own crib. 67 is a great crib toss, but iirc 44 is better. The flush does pick up extra points on a five cut. Then again, a five cut is liable to give us a big crib anyway just because of the likelihood of pone’s tossing tenth cards. The flush does have bunched cards that will now and then score big in the play, but…

I like 2679 because it has an eleven and a five trap.

Checking Liam, for all my analysis, I’m not right today. 67 or 24 outscore this by about a point in hand+crib. Certainly pegging factors will mitigate this so it’s not *that* bad of a choice, but it is definitely a not-so-distant second best to those two. Basically, the big cuts with 2449 and [4679] pull up the averages significantly. 44 is better than 67 by about a full point in the crib but this isn’t quite enough to make up the difference.

With the cut, a 10 point hand and at least two in the crib, probably more like 4 at least, I would play a balanced game. Would certainly pursue the ol’ 31 for 2, 29 for four play sequence.

Wednesday 5:04 AM

There's a handful of different ways to start with six points from these, but which is best?
I'll try the flush with its 7-4 eleven, but I reckon a case can also be made for discarding 6-7, 6-9 or 4-4 instead.
I look forward to reading today's posts, and, "taking a ride", on board the various trains of thought of the commenters.

   

Wednesday 5:23 AM

Good puzzle James. I will play the combined 8 points, and still have flexibility with the pegging, including a Magic 11 and the redundant fours.

   

Wednesday 6:13 AM

I like the flush today. We have the 7-4 magic 11 for defense and many cuts that will help hand and/or crib.

   

Wednesday 6:16 AM

For James500’s tricky & educational puzzle I will use Ras’s two point sacrifice rule..since no available discard on his list is in these six dealt cards I will start with six points in my HAND.. …I prefer the potential of 6-7 to the crib…as to board position ..Mr. Dylan would say..” It’s not dark yet, but it’s gettin there”

It is worth pointing out that when considering hand + crib they’re three ways to have a combined six points ..this makes this puzzle a “humdinger” ..to quote my late grandmother.

https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/uploads/5/6/7/4/56741021/chart_11.pdf

   

Wednesday 6:40 AM

CribEDGE didn't go with the flush today. Here's its specifics:

Worried about opponent score. Prioritizing hand worth.
Keep: Two of Hearts, Four of Hearts, Four of Clubs, Nine of Clubs
Toss: Six of Clubs, Seven of Clubs
Worth: 6 / Bonus: 4

   

Wednesday 7:36 AM

I'm picking this hold largely for defensive purposes today - Really want to avoid pone reaching hole 95+ on the next hand if I can help it. I think the best potential combined with defense will be served by throwing (6 7) to my crib.

   

Wednesday 10:14 AM

Pondered both the flush and the 2-4-4-9 but, in the end, when in doubt it pays to flush!

I see C. Liam Brown has the flush ahead by a slim 0.1 points. Which will peg better? Magic 11 with the 9-2 or the 7-4. The 2-4-4-9 has the 9 as an escape card if needed.

Still, it pays to flush!

   

Wednesday 12:33 PM

Dang so close. I have a peg strat for this type of hand. 6-7 in crib is attractive but if a five or eight gets cuts tthose hand are sizable also. dec

   

Wednesday 2:10 PM

Must be close is right dec. The only reason I chose this way is because the touchers (6-7) are better than the (2-4) gappers, by about half a point. But the flush will be harder to read; and has a safer Magic Eleven. Now the question is; on a 10 Card lead; will I "face my fears", and play the 9 to get the count above 15, or will I play the 2?

   

Wednesday 4:06 PM

I think it's between 2-4-4-9 (6-7), 4C-6-7-9 (2-4H), 2-6-7-9 (4-4) and 2-4-4-7 (6-9):

2-4-4-9: 6pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.98) = 11pts

4C-6-7-9: 6pts + 4½pts (Schell: 4.52) = 10½pts

2-6-7-9: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = 9¾pts

2-4-4-7: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 9¼pts

Potential:

2-4-4-9: Improves with 222, 3333, 44, 5555, 666, 777, 999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 12pts with 222, 3333, 44, 999 = 12 cuts.

4C-6-7-9: Improves with 222, 44, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 10/12pts with 222, 44, 5555, 666, 8888, 999 = 19 cuts. Plus 9 club cuts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

2-6-7-9: Improves with 222, 44, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 7/8/10pts with 222, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 20 cuts.

2-4-4-7: Improves with 222, 3333, 44, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 25 cuts = 25/46 = 54.3% up to 8/10/12pts with 222, 3333, 44, 777, 999 = 15 cuts.

Position:

We're 3pts past 3rd street positional hole but Pone is just 2pts off reaching 4th street on average. So I'll play Defense to try to slow them down.

Pegging:

I think 2-4-4-9 and 2-4-4-7 will peg well with 3 low cards and a middle-card plus a magic eleven but the flush will also peg well and be harder to read and has a magic eleven as well.

Summary:

2-4-4-9 has the best starting value by ½pt over 4C-6-7-9 and while they both have the same number of cuts for improvement 2-4-4-9 has 12 cuts for 12pts but the flush has 19 cuts for 10/12pts plus an extra 0.20pt for a club cut. So I think I'll throw the suited 2-4.

   

Wednesday 4:07 PM

At 73*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
2-4-4-9____8.00+(-1.96)+4.77=10.84____17.3____31.8
4C-6-7-9___8.33+(-2.20)+4.29=10.42____17.1____31.6
2-6-7-9____6.04+(-2.13)+5.50= 9.41____14.4____28.8
2-4-4-7____6.26+(-2.09)+5.07= 9.24____12.6____27.6

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
2-4-4-9________41.2____57.9
4C-6-7-9_______42.9____58.5
2-6-7-9________42.8____61.9
2-4-4-7________42.3____63.5

2-4-4-9 is best for expected averages by 0.42pt. and is very slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 6-7 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play a SAFE strategy to the lead.

   

Wednesday 5:33 PM

Seeing JQT's comment to Hal's post, I figured I'd note I had that thought in my head when choosing between the 2-4 and 6-7 today and decided to keep the flush and the 7-4 "11".

Ultimately saw the two choices as close and needed a "tie-breaker", though it's certainly possible I chose the wrong "tie-breaker" today and would rather avoid the bunched run.