Friday 3:03 AM

No need to to overthink this one-the A,2 3,or any picture gives us at least 12-a middle card cut, while somewhat stifling our hand,still provides a doggone good chance at crib support

Friday 3:07 AM

Can't add more than Rob's comments with today's submission.

Friday 3:20 AM

We are the Dealer, sitting just Three Holes 'shy' of the Third Street Par Hole 70, while our Opponent sits an 'Average Pone Tally' of Ten Holes away from that same, crucial target.

Every Additional Hole we 'surrender' to our Opponent in this scenario places Pone deeper into the 'Zone,' while at the same time, we'd like to 'best' or beat our own average by Three Holes, in order to get back on pace!

We can choose between: a FLUSH, a Double Run, or Two PAIRS, making this a lovely arrangement, but only if we can assess it properly! The FLUSH of (Ad 2d 3d 7d) begins with Seven Points, while the Double Run of (A A 2 3) or the Two PAIRS (A A 7 7) begin with Eight Points. Since we often 'bump up' any prospective FLUSH by One Point, we can consider all three ideas to be of equal starting value of Eight Points. In fact, after a quick glance, we should notice that the FLUSH will become at least Nine Points after ANY Cut Card!

That still leaves lots of variables to examine, and these include: Hand Growth Potential, Pegging Potential, and Potential Crib Value. Let's address these in reverse order: The Crib Value of Toss (2 3) is 7.00 Points; the Crib Value of Toss (7 7) is 5.92 Points; and the Crib Value of Toss (A 7) is 3.85 Points (Schell, all figures). That probably eliminates the FLUSH from contention today, as it entails a paltry Crib Value of below Four Points. Sadly, the FLUSH is unlikely to save us here.

As far as Pegging Potential, the Double Run of ALL Small Cards should excel above and beyond those Two PAIRS of (A A 7 7), but it might be close, since Middle Cards frequently allow the successful play of Small Card PAIRS, while holding ALL FOUR Small Cards sometimes 'stumbles' when trying to get the Count pushed up toward Thirty-One. The Two PAIRS might also allow us to peg more Defensively if required, an attribute which should not be overlooked at such a Relative Score. Therefore, let's consider these as near equals!

Potential Hand Growth is probably where our two remaining ideas will distinguish themselves. The Two PAIRS of (A A 7 7) will grow to become Ten Points or more after Twelve Cut Cards (AA, 6666, 77, 8888), which shall occur 12/46 equals 0.261 or about 26% of the time, while the Double Run of (A A 2 3) will grow to become Ten Points or more after Thirty-Six Cut Cards (AA, 222, 333, 4444, 8888, 9999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), which shall occur 36/46 equals 0.783 or about 78% of the time.

It's probably not even close, since the Double Run 'mops up' the most Growth Points here, but it's an interesting puzzle as it shows that an equal-looking FLUSH that promises to start with the MOST points can end up being in Third Place on the podium! Also, while Toss (2 3) can attain up to Eighteen Points in our Crib, while allowing for the Two PAIRS to reach Twenty Points, it slides down to Second Place due to the comparative weakness of the Two PAIRS as a Hand after MOST Cut Cards.

Let's Toss (7 7) today, and retain the Double Run, which is the Hand most likely to grow, while simultaneously allowing us to peg, and also placing something of value into our Crib.

After the Trey of Clubs Cut Card, we now have Sixteen Points in our Hand, with prospects for a good Crib. 🍧

Wordle 1,511 4/6

⬛⬛⬛⬛🟩
⬛⬛🟨⬛⬛
⬛🟨⬛🟨🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Friday 3:27 AM

Straight forward today. I don't see any justification for the alternative here. Starting to question the mods now (But I am thankful for what you do!). I know better puzzles have been thrown away.

Cribbage Pro Daily Scrimmage *Spoiler*
Score: 120 to 121 LOSS

Discards
1. 2-9 0-0*
2. 7-8
3. T-K
4. Q-K
5. 2s-K
6. A-Q
7. 9-Q
8. 7-K
9. 3-7

Got cute pegging hand 9 when conventional wisdom might've gotten the job done. (Might)

Wordle 1,511 4/6

⬜🟨🟩🟨⬜
⬜🟨🟩🟨⬜
🟩⬜🟩⬜🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

More like 11/6 Made up quite a few new words with the unconventional start I gave myself.

Friday 3:50 AM

Friday 4:05 AM

Boom

Friday 4:27 AM

A slight hesitancy to think about 2-3 , but not long. dec

Friday 4:38 AM

Clutching at straws now, but I hope my opponent discarded some X cards.

A loss on Cribbage Pro's daily Scrimmage. Two in a row.

Lots of colour after guess one on Wordle, but I can't think of something that would fit for word two.

** Spoiler ahead **

Wordle 1,511 X/6

🟨🟨⬛🟨🟩 = BIOME

Friday 5:06 AM

In with the crowd today

Friday 5:28 AM

Betting on the pone sending a 10/K to our crib.

Friday 5:41 AM

Sticking with the sure 10 points, more hits, and peggers.

Friday 5:56 AM

Sending the 2, 3 was tempting!

Got smoked today 🫤
Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
8th Aug 2025
💔Score: 92 to 121
⭐SP: 350
📅Streak: 224

Friday 6:26 AM

Like Sally’s reasoning above as well as others holding it this way.

Friday 6:30 AM

Ditto

Friday 6:39 AM

Bah.

Friday 7:01 AM

Positionally, we are slightly short (70*-60) but should make that up this hand. 2-3, 7-7, flush? I like sending 2-3 into my crib, but numbers do not justify it here.

Friday 7:03 AM

Ras counsels when in doubt flush..he also says his rules/axioms apply around 95% of the time ..To me ,this is the other 5% of the time. I will start with eight and make the second highest pair average to my crib….and with cuts from 11/13 ranks helping hand or crib it’s hard not to also play for a favorable cut ..which also goes against another of Ras’s counsels ...thanks James500 for the other 5% of the time puzzle❗️

https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen6.asp

Friday 1:41 PM

At 67*-60 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
A-A-2-3____11.43+3.43+5.68=20.54____55.2____72.1
A-A-7-7_____9.48+2.89+6.68=19.05____48.6____67.6
AD-2-3-7D__10.33+3.57+3.46=17.36____40.0____59.4

Offense_______L4 %____L5 %
A-A-2-3________14.7____19.7
A-A-7-7________14.5____22.9
AD-2-3-7D______16.3____38.2

A-A-2-3 is best for expected averages by 1.49pts. and is very much best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s.

After the 3 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Friday 2:31 PM

Went with AA77. Believe a hand or two of Wordle before a game of Cribbage is a worth investment. IMO

Friday 2:42 PM

Text book.