Monday 3:38 AM

I prefer the flush.
A guarantee of six points either way, but I reckon the cut is more likely to improve this hand, and I'm more optimistic of 8-9 becoming something than 3-9.

   

Monday 5:25 AM

Agree with James above. More pegging flexibility and more potential with the 8-9 toss.

   

Monday 5:44 AM

Even with a seven ( spades ) cut if we had kept 8-8-6-A we could have had sixteen with the flush keep we would have twelve with at least three in the crib so worth this keep still. The eight- three combats the face cards keep here. dec

   

Monday 5:54 AM

I tossed the touchies. Often the opponent will toss you the connector. Crappy hands are often the best peggers because the opponent has no idea what you have.

Mother Nature decided to be kind and give us a 50 degree rainstorm today in Northern Massachusetts. I can see all the leaves I never raked up in November again.

   

Monday 6:04 AM

I usually like A-3 to my crib, but I didn't want to give up the 2 points it would cost me. 8-9 is a decent toss.

Monday 6:12 AM

Have got to start this day by sharing the results of a game with another soul who shall remain anonymous. I lost the cut for opening deal. Winner of the cut got to deal three times in this rare game. Hid hand scores as dealer were 10, 10, and 10 -not overly spectacular. His crib scores for the three deals totaled 40 points (12, 20, and 8) in that order. As non-dealer he got to see two hands of 24 and 20! He pegged four holes as dealer and 3 holes as non-dealer for 7 pegs. What does that do. He was sitting in the game hole after five deals. Have never played in or witnessed a game of less than six deals. Have played a few six-deal games and have observed a few. DeLynn Colvert apparently found games of less than six deals as non-existent as well. He has two charts in his book "Play Winning Cribbage" and neither shows any games with less than six deals. The game lasted six minutes. And I avoided a double skunk too by scoring 64 points. Speed up play in your group with games of such limited deals. You could play nine games of cribbage in less than an hour. Might consider playing 22 games with an 8:00 AM start and be done before an early lunch at 11:30.

   

Monday 6:19 AM

From the “tens” cards only contributors are 10-J-Q-K spades which add one point to the kept flush & any ten helps the crib. The remainder of the deck contributes to this keep making it worth at least eight.

   

Monday 6:25 AM

If choosing offense as a strategy with the deck at hole 45, the flush wins quite handily. It's a closer call if you were to choose defensive pegging strategy. Potential hand size show little difference starting with six points in either case. Potential dealer pegs are much superior with the flush and potential crib score is nearly a point greater.

Monday 7:58 AM

Pays to flush today.Everything tht is not a face care helps it. I like the 8-9 in my crib to catch a possible 10.

   

Monday 8:03 AM

If this had been the other players deal I would be more concerned with the 8-9 discard. I'll keep the flush.

   

Monday 8:44 AM

If there had been 2 more points overall when NOT keeping the flush, it may have been a harder decision.

   

Monday 3:02 PM

I think its between A-3-6-8S (8-9), A-6-8-8 (3-9) and 6-8-8-9 (A-3):

A-3-6-8S: 6pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.72) = 10¾pts

A-6-8-8: 6pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.78) = 9¾pts

6-8-8-9: 4pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.52) = 8¼pts

Potential:

A-3-6-8S: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 666, 7777, 88, 999 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 9/10/11pts with AAA, 2222, 333, 666, 7777, 88 = 19 cuts. Plus 9 spades for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

A-6-8-8: Improves with AAA, 666, 7777, 88, 999 = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 12/16pts with AAA, 666, 7777, 88 = 12 cuts.

6-8-8-9: Improves with AAA, 666, 7777, 88, 999 = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 8/16pts with all cuts.

Position:

We're 1pt past 2nd street positional hole and opponent is behind at 38pts. Our target is 60pts which, on we should reach plus 1pt so I think I'll play Optimally.

Pegging:

The flush has a good spread of cards and a magic eleven plus the flush will be hard to read so I think this will peg best playing optimally.

Summary:

A-3-6-8S is best for starting value by 1pt over A-6-8-8 and it has the most cuts for improvement with 19 cuts for 9-11pts. Also it has the extra 0.20pt for a spade cut and it should peg the best. Therefore I'll throw the 3-9.

   

Monday 3:20 PM

At 45*-38 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
A-3-6-8S___8.46+3.41+4.61=16.48____51.5____54.8
A-6-8-8____8.04+2.80+3.52=14.36____44.7____50.9
6-8-8-9____6.52+2.89+4.44=13.85____42.8____46.7

Offense_______L6 %____L7 %
A-3-6-8S_______29.4____30.3
A-6-8-8________26.4____32.5
6-8-8-9________28.7____35.5

The flush is best by 2.12pts and is very much best for Win %s and is second best for Loss %s by a close margin. So I'll select 3-9 to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Offense to the lead.