Today's results so far

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0-0*  ?
37%
33%
13%
11%
3%
0%
0%
Total votes: 251
mrob2199
1378 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 3:57 AM
Like keeping the extra 2 points here with the K instead of the AA55- lead the K and it’s likely we will peg 4 if dealer has a lone 5- if he has 2 we will get the quad 12 plus the 31- not too concerned with an A 6 toss
glmccuskey
4044 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Sunday 5:15 AM
Maybe I’m “running down a dream”, but I wanted to keep the 5-5-6 together for a short at 16. Not aligned with Rob on this day but maybe i should have been.
Sgt Pegger says: "Agreed" on this hold. "We've only just begun" so you have to "roll the bones", to reach for the sky. lol
zeke76
1335 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Sunday 5:57 AM
Can’t justify throwing a pair based on hope for a double run. Gotta keep the K55 together for the six points.
Gougie00
5669 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 5:58 AM
I'm running down a dream too.
james500
3863 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Sunday 5:58 AM
K-10 was the better option yesterday. Maybe we should continue with defensive discarding and pick K-6 today? I'm choosing A-6.
dec
6291 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 6:19 AM
Sorry Tom P. can't be runnin' down a dream. Keepin/discarding the 6/0 combo here. King lead. dec
SallyAnn3 says: lol. The online player named tomearlpetty is a club friend. Dedicated fan! (and really named Tom)
Jazzselke
2551 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 6:38 AM
I also like holding the open-ended double run possibility first hand of the game. (A6 also could be dangerous with middle-card tosses by the dealer).
Sgt Pegger says: I'm completely with you Dan. A/6 always seems to catch something. From my own experiences, AA typically does very little in the pone's crib.
MiketheExpert says: Well, in this case the (2 3) toss by dealer combined with this deuce cut might make hand 1 the "deciding" factor in this game :)
SallyAnn3 says: Etching in brain to avoid A/6 toss. I never was that concerned about it before!
Eolus619
1281 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Sunday 6:48 AM
Interesting differences today on discard values ..A-6 does not make Ras’s “best” Pone discards averaging under 5. Schell has it just below 5. Puzzles like this one are a reminder about Ras’s observation about what likely happens to a nine in a dealer’s hand. However today I took the risk & tossed A-6 to keep the starting six points.

“ let's take a look at what happens to a 9 in dealer's hand. Of the ten most frequent dealer discards to his or her own crib, 6-9, 8-9 and 7-9 stand out. When we look at the next group of ten, there's the 9-10, and a short distance down the list is the 9-9. There is a high percentage chance that if dealer started with a 9, it is now in the crib. Secondly, if a 9 is retained, most often it is retained with other middle cards or 3s. Only in the case of 6-9-10-J (the 6 could be any other card), 9-10-10-J or some other double run from a 9 upwards, or 5-9-10-J, is a 9 present with ten-point cards.”
horus93
1240 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Sunday 7:27 AM
Great puzzle today.

You could throw a top balk, 6K, and hold AA55, which has plenty of scope for improvement.

You could throw your aces, which is dangerous, but hardly mad bomber mode, to hold 556K. Throwing AA to your opponent is basically like if he put 57 in his own crib, to put it in perspective.

You could throw A6, a reasonably safe toss, to hold A55K.

To get this right and be sure that you are right you'd have to know:
1.) For each of these crib tosses, how likely is it that it will result in a collapse of dealer scoring? And this could happen even with AA (2 point crib, 5 point hand etc).
2.) How likely that they blow up and be joined to a good dealer hand/peg at the same time?
3.) How likely that they blow up, but his hand/peg are so weak that he only scores average?
4.) What are the *exact* positional demands of 0-0*? If pone leans toward offense, precisely how much risk should he accept for how much of a boost in his odds of scoring above average?

I can't answer a single one of these questions - my gut is my cynosure. This says tossing 6K is overly defensive, and gives up too much re: our odds of getting to, say, 12*+ next hand and catching up that way. Its value as a balk is somewhat lessened because dealer has a head start positionally in relation to our deficit.

It says throwing the aces gives up too much in the other direction. The odds of the aces yielding a huge crib are likely greater than the odds of us getting the 4 or 7 cut that would have made it worth it.

And it says A6 is the best goldilocks. It's not like I'd never make a crazy throw to hold a great hand; this just isn't quite good enough/the alternatives aren't quite bad enough.

However I think there's a strong case to be made for throwing 6K; my gut just isn't quite swayed, and no ever really *does* make an air-tight mathematical argument for decisions like this. Going with 6K you could say "really it's only like a two point less hand; yeah it has cuts for four, and A55K has tons of cuts for six. Probably we won't go too far to shorten our deficit; so why not give up a little bit for defense? Imagine if he gets a 0-2 point hand and an average or lame hand... we might not have to worry about offense anymore at that point." Those are good arguments, I just value the balk a bit less than that.

I also see why you'd toss the aces but I think it's less likely to be the right way. The odds of a four or seven cut are only 17%. Usually you have *higher* odds than that of giving up a large crib tossing even the "safer" dangerous throws like AA; checking Liam, AA will give up an 8+ crib 30% of the time here. "But dude you yourself have made dangerous throws like that at 0-0*!" Consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, and those cases weren't quite the same anyway lol.

Lemme compare some scores on orbitals. Our starting win rate is 44%.

1.) If dealer scores way below average, and we score around average, say at 9*-9, our win rate is: 55%
2.) If we both of us score below average, and the score is 5*-9, our win rate is: 47%
3.) If dealer scores average, we score a bit above average, at 13*-16 our win rate is: 49%
4.) If we both score above average, at 13*-20 our win rate is: 41%
5.) If we score way above average, and dealer scores above average, at 17*-22 win rate is: 45%

I'm shooting for something like scenario 3). I think tossing AA, you're looking more at scenario 4), or 5). Tossing 6K, you might pull off something like scenario 1), I just think it's less likely. You could also pull off something like scenario 3), but again less likely.

Also these numbers back up my idea (which goes back to Schell, and is common sense) that if your cards aren't so great you can improve your win rate by hurting dealer's scoring, rather than taking risks to score an extra couple points. Tossing A6 isn't *likely* to create something like scenario 1), but it's a heck of a lot more likely to do so than tossing AA.

The bot might go this way, it might go with something else. It won't be able to explain itself, and it's silly to follow it blindly when we have so much evidence of its imperfections, and can think for ourselves.

What about pegging? None of these look great on offense; if anything I like AA55 the most for this (lead the five in that case). 556K is pretty bad defense; the others are definitely less bad on that front. Nothing big enough to swing me.

No real surprises on Liam. It does think this is "best" for hand minus crib but that's a misleading metric, so I wouldn't claim any kind of "victory" for that (nb: this is exactly how the bot will come up with its answer, just with pegging factored in). I'm going this way but I can't pretend to know for sure that either of the others is wrong.

I don't think TK was the better option yesterday... the bot did basically exactly what I said it would lol.
horus93 says: With the dud cut I'm pegging it "normal". Lead the ace or the king? My habit would be to lead the King.
horus93 says: And not only did I say the bot *would* pick TK, but also *why* it would, and the problems I had with its reasoning. It's not like I don't see the arguments for TK, or how it would be on top according to a certain formula. What really bothers me about "botheads" is that they're not interested in thinking about or discussing the game... If you point out a problem or a different way of approaching something, they will ignore you and hope you go away. They've outsourced their thinking to Halscrib, and anything else threatens their status as "cribbage gurus". Lol.
SallyAnn3
858 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Sunday 9:17 AM
With my buddies Dan and Gary today :)
Inushtuk1
1428 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 9:20 AM
I'm playing aggressive here. Second choice would be (A-6). I agree with the Jazz man that (A-6) is also dangerous. Third choice is (6-K).
MiketheExpert
1062 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Sunday 10:22 AM
Okay, I'll break the mold once again and go with the (A A 5 5). This improves with (AA,3333,4444,55,8888,9999,TTTT,JJJJ,QQQQ,KKK) , 35/46 cuts, which is more than any other choice, and throws the great balking (6 K) into the opponent's crib. I've said in the past that I like keeping 2 pairs separated by a few ranks, and if I can retain a pair of A's in my hand with something else as pone, this works well for me. 3-card magic 11 in (A-5-5). Also, in case a 4 is cut, this still leaves me with 8 pts, and "insurance" against a 5 what with having two of them in my hand. The 7 cut would be the most upsetting, missing out on this double-run as pone. Finally, I like the A lead, both for potential offensive pegs, as well as keeping dealer low on pegs. Just hope that dealer is not also carrying a pair of A's. Those "quad" swings happen oh so rarely, but boy they can be depressing when they do happen.
MiketheExpert says: The 5 lead is also a possibility here, for an even more aggressive stance, likely giving up more pegs, but giving yourself a chance for 15-8 as well as saving those A's to score -- I don't think it is a bad play here.
Coeurdelion
5547 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Sunday 1:58 PM
I think it's between A-A-5-5 (6-K) and 5-5-6-K (A-A):

A-A-5-5: 4pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.14) = -¼pt

5-5-6-K: 6pts - 6pts (Schell: 6.02) = 0pt

Potential:

A-A-5-5: Improves with AA, 3333, 4444, 55, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 8/10/12pts with AA, 4444, 55, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 31 cuts.

5-5-6-K: Improves with 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 10/12/14/16pts with 4444, 55, 7777 + 15xXs = 25 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone positional hole is at 18pts so I'll play Offense to try to reach it or exceed it.

Pegging:

A-A-5-5 has low cards with a 3-card magic eleven so I think will peg best.

Summary:

5-5-6-K has the better starting value by ¼pt but A-A-5-5 has more cuts for improvement and 31 cuts for 8-12pts compared to 25 cuts for 10-16pts with 5-5-6-K. However only 4 cuts for A-A-5-5 score a dozen (9999) while 13 cuts score 12-16pts with 5-5-6-K (4444, 55, 7777, KKK) so as our target is 18pts and we're playing Offense I think I'll risk the A-A to opponent's box.
HalscribCLX
5268 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 1:58 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the ;pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-5-5-K____8.57+1.26+(-4.48)=5.35____26.9____24.9
A-A-5-5____7.30+1.54+(-3.76)=5.08____24.0____23.9
5-5-6-K____9.48+1.33=(-5.80)=5.01____29.8____24.4

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
A-5-5-K_______38.1____49.9
A-A-5-5_______36.2____50.0
5-5-6-K_______42.0____51.2

A-5-5-K is best for expected averages by 0.27pt. and although 5-5-6-k is slightly best for Win %s A-A-5-5 is lowest for Loss %s and A-5-5-K is considerably lower than 5-5-6-K. So as it's the beginning of the game I'll decide on expected averages and select an A-6 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead the K and play Offense:

Lead______________Our Pegging Points
K________________________1.46
A________________________1.27
5________________________1.26
cribbagepogo
3236 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Sunday 6:10 PM
Two aces it a good low card throw. I throw that instead of A2 if needed. Only one way for pone to go. Take my lumps, if so.
RubyTuesday
875 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Sunday 10:57 PM
I thought about throwing A A but decided to keep the points and throw A 6 instead.