Today's results so far

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0*-0  ?
38%
22%
11%
10%
7%
3%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 209
Gougie00
5790 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 3:20 AM
The economy menu. I'll toss 5-9 and hope for some pin action.
MiketheExpert
1180 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Saturday 3:26 AM
I don't think either of the 2 main choices are a mistake. I don't want to pick (5 9) for the 2nd day in a row after yesterday's debacle, so let's opt for the (A 4). I think the resulting hand will be slightly better at preventing pegs. And to reinforce the concept that I don't believe (5 9) is a "spectacular" crib throw, and if it is not so in the opposition crib, that means it will be even worse in mine.
MiketheExpert says: If a face card is lead, I'll go ahead and take the 15-2 and likely give up the couple of points. In these cases, I may give up a couple more pegs. But face cards do not comprise more than half the deck, and I have two in my hand. I can expect to give up less on small card leads of 2-4 by playing the 5 or 9, and score 15-2 on a 6 lead. So overall, I expect this one to be rated "better" defensively when the numbers are crunched. Being left with a lone ace with a few cards becomes somewhat of a risk in this regard.
MiketheExpert says: few *high* cards
dec
6435 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 3:36 AM
This for pegging reasons is a more defensive choice. The breakup for offense is close to even. The spacing between Q-9 makes it less attractive to me. dec
horus93
1326 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Saturday 4:53 AM
I agree with MtE re: the defensive pegging gap between 59QK and A4QK. Those A4XX hands seem to run into major trouble now and then getting the ace pinned, I don't much like them on offense or defense for dealer. So why keep A4QK anyway? Because these cards are just too weak to think overmuch about defensive pegging imo. Per Liam this is 0.3 better; a five-in-hand is definitely worth something, but so is an 11, so I think this will be preferable for our own scoring overall. Even if it's only a matter of a couple tenths (in the big chart in the sky, I mean, I couldn't care less about Halscrib), I think the gap in defensive pegging isn't large enough to sway me. Some people write about starting dealer as if you have a magic, static advantage such that it hardly matters whether you peg (mte is not one of them). Truth is you have two goals, maintaining your surplus and keeping pone back. So if cards are mediocre, this is how my calculus shifts.

After the awful cut, I will tolerate some offense. Pair an ace lead? Na, not worth it imo. Pair a four lead? Yup, the odds favor it. I know this is "heresy" but I can defend my views and the other ones can't, or they will even say things that are factually false like "you have a 50/50 chance of winning if you get to 8", because they don't understand basic stats (also I like to have odds of winning over 50/50, personally). No need to rehash it all in depth as it is quite simple: you can't take your surplus for granted especially in early game, and pone's very deficit gives you some degree of a safety net (i.e. say he triples me, which he probably won't, he still will only be in marginal position in all likelihood).
Inushtuk1
1544 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 5:47 AM
On defense I like to rid myself of the 5, and keep the Magic Eleven. I will play the K on a 10 lead, and the Ace on all other X-Card leads. I will tolerate pairing an A, or 4 as the second card played by n/d. There's probably only 4-5 points in my Crib.
SallyAnn3
936 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Saturday 6:04 AM
More promising to put the 5 in the crib, rather than the a/4 combo. Can get 8 or 9 with this hold, and pegging potential with the magic 11
kal79
74 votes

Joined: April 2024

 
 
 
Saturday 6:16 AM
5-9 isn’t a bad choice at all when given this hand…I’ll admit where I was wrong yesterday is that 5-9 certainly isn’t an “oil and water” discard. Per Ras, it pairs well with a 10-J discard when going to pone’s crib and could pick up a couple points to your own crib too.

But for today’s choice, the biggest tiebreaker for me was the option to play 15-2 on an X lead. Plus, I don’t need low cards at this point, I’m not trying to score pegs. More interested in defense and shutting down our opponent.
Eolus619
1400 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Saturday 6:52 AM

0*-0…For those here with less experience , the inherent advantage ( based on Colvert’s 26 theory) that GFDer has..has been well understood by the ACC since its inception. In tournament play, when the number of players allows it , who gets to deal first alternates between each player depending if the current game is odd or even in the sequence. In the playoffs, needing to win 3/5, loser ALWAYS gets to deal. When the tournament calls for a cut for deal format, the reason certain players consistently overcome bad cut luck for deal is primarily their ability to peg 26-30 points per game. There are multiple ways ( par holes or CPZs mostly based on Colvert’s 26 theory) for a player to understand their % chance to win the game from that score and also to guide their choice to play O or D for EACH hand regardless of who dealt first at the games beginning. Many players have now come to the conclusion that Colvert’s advice for GFDer to play defense during all hands and GF n/der to play “keep max point O “ ( regardless of benefit to the GFDer) for all hands is not the best path to consistently winning. In the end, it is what works for you. In the recent Deadwood Main. I watched David Aiken ( an elite player for decades and current CW editor) defeat Rob M (considered one of the top five current players in our game ) using his board position methodology which divides the board into 1/4ers..25..50..75..100.. Have a think about all this and be flexible enough to adapt to the game’s ebb and flow that EACH hand presents to you.AND..always have an appreciation for the randomness of our game..todays cut being a very good example.
Assman says: Excellent commentary. Many thanks, Eolus.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Bruce. Excellent commentary indeed. David must play a much more aggressive style. I only played him once. It's all a blur. All I know is I wrote in another zero on my card. "Live by the sword, die by the sword"?? Being extra aggressive works often, but can backfire too. Perhaps that's why Rob is rated 4th nationally in the current season, and David is not in the Top 100. But then again, perhaps Rob plays more tourneys per year than David. Who can say for sure? At any rate they'r both light years ahead of me.
Inushtuk1 says: I want to say I have played Rob three or four times. Again, three or four zeros on my card. :)
Eolus619 says: Thanks to you both
Assman
41 votes

Joined: May 2024

 
 
 
Saturday 7:25 AM
I like it this way. Per the Schell discard tables the A-4 and the 5-9 net the exact same average in the crib--4.53.
Sgt Pegger
332 votes

Joined: July 2017

 
 
 
Saturday 9:33 AM
A 5,9 to our crib is not as appealing to me, as the A,4 so this is how I will muddle through this mess. Any points offered are much appreciated and quickly tallied!
Jazzselke
2625 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Saturday 10:49 AM
Generally prefer a 5 combo in the crib over A4; the latter has already hooked up with 2 facecards, whereas the 5 may combine with a few additional cards, i.e. 28, 37 etc.
Coeurdelion
5646 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Saturday 11:47 AM
I'll look at A-4-9-K (5-Q), 5-9-Q-K (A-4) and A-4-Q-K (5-9):

A-4-9-K: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 8½pts

5-9-Q-K: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 9¼pts

A-4-Q-K: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 9¼pts

Potential:

A-4-9-K: Improves with AAA, 2222, 444, 555, 6666, 999 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 6/8pts with AAA, 444, 555, KKK = 12 cuts.

5-9-Q-K: Improves with AAA, 555, 6666, 999 + 14xXs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 8/9/10pts with 555, JJJJ, QQQ, KKK = 13 cuts.

A-4-Q-K: Improves with AAA, 444, 555 + 14xXs = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/9/10pts with AAA, 444, 555, JJJJ, QQQ, KKK = 19 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer positional hole is at 8pts so I'll play Defense but try to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

I think A-4-9-K and A-4-Q-Q will peg very similarly and playing Defense better than 5-9-Q-K.

Summary:

5-9-Q-K and A-4-Q-K have the same starting value (even according to Schell) and while 5-9-Q-K has more cuts for improvement A-4-Q-K has 19 cuts for 8-10pts compared to 13 cuts for 8-10pts with 5-9-Q-K. So I'll throw the 5-9.
HalscribCLX
5371 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 11:47 AM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-4-Q-K____6.17+(-1.96)+5.31=9.52____33.7____48.0
5-9-Q-K____5.96+(-2.07)+5.23=9.12____33.5____47.0
A-4-9-K____4.13+(-1.89)+6.50=8.74____31.9____45.6
A-4-9-Q____4.13+(-1.96)+6.51=8.68____31.9____45.7

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
A-4-Q-K_______24.9____25.6
5-9-Q-K_______26.4____26.9
A-4-9-K_______26.3____28.0
A-4-9-Q_______26.0____27.8

A-4-Q-K is best for expected averages by 0.40pt. and is very slightly best for Win %s and slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 5-9 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
5215 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 3:01 PM
Not much on which to comment this day at hole 0 with the deck. It's defense (5-9 has a slightly higher crib average, A-4-Q-K gives up fewer pegs and has an edge in potential hand score). Since dealer only needs 7 total score on hand one to have 50/50 chance to win, will play off the lead.
RubyTuesday
958 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Saturday 3:31 PM
5 9 to my crib for all the reasons above.