Tuesday 3:14 AM

Gotta play to get in position. Full steam ahead.

Tuesday 4:03 AM

We are Pone, and we are Three Holes 'shy' of the Dealer, who begins with a massive advantage against us. We wish to become Next Dealer at or beyond the Fourth Street Par Hole 96, but that is a challenging Fourteen Holes in the distance, and it is Four Holes above the Pone Average tally of Ten Points. 🖐🏻 🖐🏻

We are dealt a Double Run that yields Ten Points, plus whatever the Cut Card might add, which will vary all the way from nothing-at-all up to Twenty Points, which would result after Six Cuts (777, 888). The problem is that in order to retain the Double Run, we must relinquish Toss (5 5) into the Enemy Crib! 😬

One positive aspect of the current puzzle is that the Dealer has an awkward position at Hole 85, and in spite of the fact that the Dealer is already ahead of us, the Dealer is also Eleven Points 'shy' of the critical Fourth Street Par Hole 96. This would indicate that we could possibly "get away with" giving away a large Crib at this juncture, as long as it entails us getting an even-larger Hand. 💥

Since we really have no safe discard, and something like either Toss (5 9) or Toss (9 9) might be the best we could manage, I think it's as good a time as any to 'take the plunge' and retain the Double Run. Could we be suffering from "Double Run Hopenosis" gone awry, or Double-Double-Runs Gone Wild? Time will tell. 🙃

Let's Toss (5 5) today, and hope for any of Sixteen Cuts (6666, 777, 888, 99, TTTT) that will yield a Dozen Points or more. This of course means that the remaining Thirty Cuts add NOTHING, but more than half of these are Small Cards that are less likely to boost the two 5 Cards we sent over the board. 🍌

After the Ace Cut, we get NO HELP, but with any luck, the Dealer might have a Crib worth as little as Two Points! We'll lead the 8 Card. 🎱

Wordle 1,228 4/6 🥼

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Tuesday 4:21 AM

Seen this arrangements a few times over the years here. So unless its an ultra defensive position or even an end game situation I choose this. dec

Tuesday 4:33 AM

I feel like one of those suicidal squirrels that dart in front of your car that you flatten about 1 of 10 times. Thinking I'll make it this time.

Tuesday 5:12 AM

If playing defense, 9-9 would be the right call. However, after thinking a bit more, today’s position isn’t one we should react to with full defense. I’ll admit my first reaction was 9-9 as I threw, but overcoming a 6 point starting sacrifice would be challenging. Not to mention, the double run hits 24 with a 7 or 8 cut. Going forward, I’d throw 5-5 and hold my breath unless we are down to the wire and need defense

Tuesday 5:34 AM

I never like throwing 5-5 to the enemy crib. But sometimes I have to.

Tuesday 5:44 AM

Is this a "play your position puzzle"?

Tuesday 5:58 AM

What's the worst that could happen!?

Wordle 1,228 4/6

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Tuesday 6:08 AM

Tuesday 6:17 AM

One of the few (possibly only) hands I'll discard 5-5 in hopes of a favorable cut - anywhere from 14 to 20 points. Playout on CribPro resulted in (93-98), a net loss of 2 points. This is OK, since I was the pone and reluctantly tossed 5-5 to my opponent.

Tuesday 7:01 AM

damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!

Tuesday 7:28 AM

On offense this is the way to go. On defense I would keep 5-5-8-9(7-9). But even (7-9) is dangerous and the Crib goes boom often. Lead the 8, *not* one of the 9's.

Tuesday 8:50 AM

This is the safest throw in my mind while still providing pegging and points in hand options. Probably lead the 8.

Tuesday 11:19 AM

Two factors should shape today's decision. Dealer is ten holes short of 4th Street CPZ (95-99) and n/d needs 13 points to deal from that zone on upcoming deal. So, it's bye-bye to that pair of fives. And they average more than 9 points on that side of the board. Dealer could expect a crib of 4.8 on average with any of the 91 discards. Will lead the 8 as that will allow me to advance the count to 27 if dealer plays a X-pointer on my lead. Doesn't work that way if leading the 7. Very little pegging potential in such cards for n/d. Expect not much more than a point on average. N/D is likely to have the upcoming deal a couple of holes short of 4th street CPZ (95-99). It does seem that the seven ought to be the offensive lead with these cards although don't believe dealer will touch n/d lead in this position (pairing or taking a 15-2) if having a choice. Dealer is likely to be playing one or more X-point cards since n/d was dealt none in six.