Monday 3:17 AM

Another nice puzzle Scott-the first priority with this hand will be to limit the opponents crib-at peg 94?it’s just not a great percentage play to throw 2 points to keep a 6 point hand-albeit one that has good potential to cut to 12-the AA 49 will improve to 8 with the same cuts,and we have excellent pegging potential to score AND avoid dealer traps-the AAA4 is very vulnerable to aggressive dealer pegging

   

Monday 3:59 AM

Two times out of three the cut will be something other than an X card, (16/46 vs 30/46), so I'm not prepared to give away two points, putting Dealer back on track at 96, in order to keep AAA4.

I'll try 4-9 and lead the Ace of Spades.

   

Monday 5:14 AM

I still have cuts for 8-12 points.

   

Monday 5:29 AM

I am the gutless wonder today. I went defensive.

   

Monday 5:45 AM

This is one of those cases where I think the better % is to play for the win rather than avoid the loss. Your opponent is almost in position, and it is true the 6-9 gives him the automatic 2 in crib. However you have a fairly safe lead with the A which you can play for 15 on any X. You will most likely need this hand as well as tne next 2 for you to count out. If I was a little bit closer (say 90-94), in this case I may throw the 4-9 to prevent dealer from advancing up the board.

   

Monday 6:01 AM

Scott - Good puzzle.

Personally, I would get defensive by tossing 4-9; I don't want to give the dealer anything at this stage in the game. But my evil twin, Monte-Carlo, said to go with what you see.

Average point-wise, there is not much difference between the 2 tosses, 9-6 is 9.93, while 9-4 averages 9.44. The 6-4 toss has an average of 8.74.

   

Monday 6:08 AM

Excellent puzzle today Scott. I went aggressive today with us at a precarious hole 86. I think there are too many cuts to get us 12 with this hold and we need to get into position on 4th street to have a legitimate chance to pull out this game.

Fun match yesterday Scott. You took me down in two closely contested and fun-filled games. You played a fantastic match. Hope you won it all.

   

Monday 6:53 AM

Well Scott..your excellent puzzle reminds me of the song lyric “ should I stay or should I go” ....the “26” math is
86-94*...96*-110....112-120*...so the goal is for me to be @ around 111+ & dealer @ 117 or below. Keep A-A-4-9 gets help from seven ranks which includes all the ten value cards.If JQT was still posting wonder if he would not chose to extend the game ..which is what I am going to try & do. Roughly 2 in 10 chance to win from this board position.

   

Monday 7:18 AM

We have 2 problems here: our position and their position. I am not throwing 69, but I can still hold 6 points by throwing 49. That throw probably not any more dangerous than A6 to hold AA49, so I see AAA6 as a compromise between the other 2 valid holds.

   

Monday 7:26 AM

I went for the big cut as I have learned not to fear 6-9 toss, but I think Gary and Rob's choices make more sense.

   

Monday 9:04 AM

A cautious A-A-4-9 keep. Only 4pts instead of 6.

I have a feeling I should be discarding the 9-6, keeping A-A-A-4 - but it's riskier.

Problem is Opp is at 94. Add 26 to that(2 hands later) and he's at 120, and can peg out as dealer again. That's why I'm reluctant to discard 6-9.

   

Monday 10:45 AM

Choosing an offense strategy to include the pegging makes it imperative that n/d discard the 4-9. Pegs, hand score, minus the crib will give n/d the best shot at a win. If dealer were at hole 90-91, would have tossed 6-9 with that 6+ crib average. Deale ri s just too close to that 4th street CPZ (95-99). Will lead the AS and likely drop the 6 next card played. Of course if dealer plays a 5-6-7-8 on my lead, will have to split the Aces to avoid giving up a run or worse a triple for six pegs. That's my plan. Have one and be flexible enough to alter if circumstances seem to justify.

   

Monday 2:23 PM

I threw 6 9 - do or die. Cue the Wilhelm scream.

   

Monday 3:28 PM

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Monday 3:35 PM

2 of the each. Possible eight points without throwing 6-9 to their crib. dec

   

Monday 4:00 PM

I think it's between A-A-A-4 (6-9) and A-AS-4-9 (A-6 unsuited):

A-A-A-4: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.26) = -¼pt

A-AS-4-9: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.91) = -¾pt

Potential:

A-A-A-4: Improves with A, 444, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 12pts with A, 999 + 16xXs = 20 cuts.

A-AS-4-9: Improves with A, 2222, 444, 5555, 666, 999 + 16xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 8/12pts with A, 444, 5555, 999 + 16xXs = 27 cuts.

Position:

Opponent is 2pts short of 3rd street positional hole and we need 10pts to reach the same. I'll play Offense to try to exceed that.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think A-4-4-9 will peg better with a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

A-A-A-4 is better for expected averages by ½pt and although A-AS-4-9 has more cuts for improvement A-A-A-4 has 20 cuts for 12pts while A-AS-4-9 has 27 cuts for 8/12pts but only 1 cut scores 12pts (AC). So although A-AS-4-9 should peg better I believe A-A-A-4 will be better overall therefore I'll throw the suited 6-9.

   

Monday 4:05 PM

At 86-94* playing Defense for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib____Total___W2 %___W3 %
A-A-A-6____7.57+(-2.46)+(-4.41)=0.70____5.3____27.6
A-A-A-4____8.91+(-2.43)+(-6.14)=0.34____8.2____26.2
A-A-A-9____7.48+(-2.22)+(-5.02)=0.24____5.0____26.0
A-AS-4-9___6.74+(-2.24)+(-4.36)=0.14____5.0____28.0

Defense______L2 %___L3 %
A-A-A-6_______34.7___66.3
A-A-A-4_______44.3___68.1
A-A-A-9_______37.7___68.0
A-AS-4-9______34.3___66.1

A-A-A-6 is best for expected averages and although it's not best for Win %s or lowest for Loss %s I'll select 4-9 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead an A and play Optimally:

Lead_____________Net Pegging Pts.
A_____________________(-0.54)
6_____________________(-1.28)

   

Monday 4:39 PM

I guess if a puzzle makes Coe and Hal pick different options, it's an interesting puzzle. Thank you all for your comments.