Wednesday 4:00 AM

It's a close game, and we would like to finish this deal as Pone at or beyond the Fourth Street Par Hole 96, which is Eleven Points yonder, or One Hole above Pone Average. 🏉

We were dealt a 4-5-6 Run and a T-J-Q Run, which enables us to Keep (5 T J Q) and Toss (4 6). Even if we get any of Nineteen Non-Diamond-Suited LOSER Cuts (AAA, 222, 333, 44, 66, 777, 888), we'll only have to peg Two Holes at the most to stay on target!

Let's Toss (4 6) today without hesitation. After the 8d Card Cut, we just need to peg One Hole in order to reach our goal. We can do it!

Let's lead the 5 Card, and if the Dealer 'Gobble-Gobbles' a Fifteen-Two, then we have about a 70% chance of being able to parry immediately and score Two Points of our own. And, by saving three High-Ranking Cards, we have a very good chance of forcing a "go" or of playing Last Card, either of which places us right On-Target. 🎯

Wednesday 4:22 AM

I’ll play max points.

Wednesday 4:29 AM

Playing to win so I go for all I could get here. dec

Wednesday 4:48 AM

At 85 it is go time. In a defensive position a different hold could be considered, such as 6Q if we are solid shape. But not here. 456X might be more versatile, but gives up 2 valuable points.

Wednesday 5:37 AM

I like it this way also.

Wednesday 6:04 AM

Keeping max points today. Not too excited about 4-6 as a discard, but we know where one of the fives is, which helps. At this point, we want to keep moving down the board, so to me, it makes sense to hold the guaranteed 9 with roughly a 25% chance at 16!

Wednesday 6:07 AM

Dan explains it perfectly today

Wednesday 6:53 AM

Automatic 4-6 pitch as Pone. Not as clear if we were Dealer, since pitching J-Q leaves us with useful pegging cards.

Wednesday 9:08 AM

What they said.

Wednesday 12:01 PM

The 5 lead from 5TJQ is tempting, but I'll try the other option on for size.
10-Q when both a 5 and Jack are out of circulation may not amount to much.
Plenty of useful cuts, including any diamond.

Wednesday 1:58 PM

Late to the party. Learned that 456 usually gets friends, except for today. Cautious offense here. We need to peg without giving the dealer many points.

Wednesday 2:38 PM

At 85-80* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib____Total___W2 %____W3 %
5-10-J-Q___11.48+1.28+(-5.01)=7.75____14.6____65.0
4-5-6-J_____9.96+1.13+(-4.28)=6.81_____9.9____58.0

Offense______L2 %____L3 %
5-10-J-Q_______2.2____13.4
4-5-6-J________1.9____16.8

5-10-J-Q is better for expected averages by 0.94pt. and is very much better for Win %s and appreciably lower for Loss %s. So I'll select 4-6 to discard.

After the 8D cut I'll lead the 5 and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Points
5_____________________1.52
Q_____________________1.37
10____________________1.34
J_____________________1.33

Wednesday 2:45 PM

Always play it this way. Glad to see that in this situation HAL and many others agree with keeping 9 vs 7

Wednesday 3:29 PM

HalscribCLX says it all for me. Choose an offense strategy, lead the 5 spot, and pair one of 3 X-pointers that might be played on such a lead. After the starter card, n/d has ten points needing the upcoming deal from 4th Street CPZ (95-99) with dealer way short of that critical position zone. So, a couple of pegs would be a good thing adding to n/d chances to win this game.

Wednesday 4:33 PM

It’s obvious now how I should have thrown!