Sunday 3:24 AM

I believe today it pays to Flush. A well disguised hand and a 5 in the crib.

   

Sunday 3:26 AM

King reply to a led X can come from my K-A eleven, or my K-6 sixteen, should Pone play an X or 5 as their second card.

Plenty of helpful cuts.

Guarantee of 2+ in the crib.

   

Sunday 3:34 AM

Didn’t miss the flush today

   

Sunday 3:36 AM

Quite an intriguing puzzle today from zeke76, with an interesting arrangement of cards to have been dealt on *either side* of the board!

As we are the Dealer, I think the obvious candidates are Toss (A 2) or Toss (2 5), and we should avoid choices such as Toss (2 K), unless we were in fact Pone here.

I am drawn toward Toss (2 5) right off the bat, as the FLUSH contains Six Points from the get-go, with at least Two Points to follow in the Crib, preceded by at least One Point during the pegging.

It seems to be a 'toss-up' on what to toss today, and it might simply be a matter of style. I believe we might have more flexibility during the pegging with the FLUSH, and thus I'll Toss (2 5).

But I see absolutely nothing wrong with those who might wish to try Toss (A 2) here as well. After that 9 Card Cut, it's still not too clear: those who do Toss (A 2) will hope that Pone 'coughed up' a Trey into Our Crib.

The fact is, Pone is *crushing* us positionally thus far in this game, and while we would like to make this situation better, it is still quite early in the game; and so the key is to NOT make it even worse!

   

Sunday 3:44 AM

Defense is the call here with the flush. Keep opponent back in the pegging and hopefully get a key cut for the hand and crib. dec

   

Sunday 4:42 AM

I'll keep the 456 intact. I can account for only 10, so its obnoxious offense.

   

Sunday 5:49 AM

Dealing at 6 holes with opponent already at 19, it's off. off., off. for me, aand play on the lead. That determines holding 4-5-6-K. Based on my scant empirical evidence the greater potential hand score offsets the greater crib value of the 2-5 discard by a bit and 4-5-6 offers some potential peg points not present with the flush. Had I been choosing a defense pegging strategy, the call would have been much closer.

   

Sunday 5:58 AM

I’m certainly going to keep the 4-5-6 together. After that I like A-2 to the crib. Offense to the lead?

   

Sunday 6:22 AM

Powerful 456 in the hand; of the crib combinations with a 5, 25 not one of my favorites. So goodbye A2.

   

Sunday 7:28 AM

Can't afford the luxury of the flush. Well behind. Got to go after the double run.

   

Sunday 7:55 AM

We need max net points. 456k will maximise that in hand, crib and pegging

   

Sunday 8:22 AM

If you have your double run goggles on and that's what you are hoping for, I cannot deny that would be a good thing to get. But for me today, two things. The flush has a starting value of 8 instead of 7, and I (believe I) have found the mantra 'It pays to flush' to be true in the past 2 years. Perhaps it's self fulfilling validation, but it sure does seem like a flush pans out so many times. Looking forward to the numbers.

   

Sunday 11:24 AM

i like to flush. bonus is the 5 in my crib. what's not to like?

   

Sunday 12:17 PM

I think there are three likely keeps - 4-5-6-K (A-2), A-4-5-6 (2-K) and A-4-6-K (2-5):

4-5-6-K: 7pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.23) = 11¼pts

A-4-5-6: 5pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.52) = 8½pts

A-4-6-K: 6pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.45) = 11½pts

Potential:

4-5-6-K: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, KKK = 12 cuts.

A-4-5-6: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 93.5% up to 8/9/12/14pts with 3333, 444, 555, 666, 9999 + 15xXs = 32 cuts.

A-4-6-K: Improves with AAA, 444, 555, 666, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 10/12/13pts with AAA, 444, 555, KKK = 12 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

Position:

It looks as if we might have been First Pone and have scored a lowly 6pts while Dealer scored 3pts above the average at 19pts. Our position is dire so I'll be playing Offense.

Pegging:

The best pegging hand is A-4-5-6 with 3 low cards and a middle card with a 3-card magic eleven. The flush should peg well too as it also has a 3-card magic eleven and will be hard to read.

Summary:

The flush has the best starting value by ¼pt over 4-5-6-K but 4-5-6-K has more cuts for improvement and 12 for 11-16pts. The flush has an extra 0.20pt for a club cut and also should peg well. A-4-5-6 will peg very well but has a low starting value and although it has 32 cuts for 8-14pts I don't think it will catch up the 3pts. 4-5-6 has the best maximum with three cuts for 16pts (555) but I think I'll go for the flush so I can put the 5 in my box. 2-5 is not one of the better scoring x-5 discards but even so it may just hit opponent's discard.

   

Sunday 12:20 PM

At 6*-19 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

______________Our
Offense__Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W8 %____W9 %
4-5-6-K___9.76+3.70+4.03=17.49____18.1____11.6
A-4-6-K___8.57+3.15+5.40=17.12____17.4____11.2
A-4-5-6___8.93+3.74+3.37=16.04____15.2_____8.3

Offense______L8 %____L9 %
4-5-6-K_______50.3____66.8
A-4-6-K_______50.8____67.5
A-4-5-6_______54.9____72.0

4-5-6-K is best for expected averages by 0.37pt and is slightly higher for Win %s and slightly lower for Loss %s. So I'll select A-2 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.

   

Sunday 1:54 PM

Because I always hold it this way :)