Tuesday 3:32 AM

Several choices, but none are very good. We are both short of where we want to be and, with no real hand meld to speak of, we probably should be playing defense. 2-8, 3-9, 6-9 all give me chances for some meld in my hand. 6-9 helps Dealer's crib too much. Pitching the 2-8 at least leaves me with a card to lead ... strongly preferring the 3 rather than the 6.

Tuesday 4:28 AM

Horrendous position here-we don’t have any potential to get near 4th street and we have to hope the 28 stifles our opponents crib so we can have the chance for a monster deal next hand-a big congrats to our own DCH’s Kendra for her amazing run at the GN in Vegas -5 through 8 in the midweek and runner up in the main-she represented us all very well!

Tuesday 4:39 AM

I need to fly up the board and I get this clunker. I tossed 28 and praying for some help.

Tuesday 4:45 AM

The only cut that doesn't help me is a 3, and one of them is already out of circulation.

Hoping to use the 2-5-9 sixteen combo in the pegging.

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
19th Nov 2024
🏆Score: 121 to 110
🌋SP: 1475
📅Streak: 1
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/311/3333658/1

Tuesday 4:54 AM

At this Relative Score, we are concerned with averting a SKUNK, so Toss (3 9) looks viable. Keep (2 5 6 8) offers our Greatest Maximum Hand of Ten Points after Four Cuts (7777), which shall occur 4/46 equals 0.087 or nearly 9% of the time. Toss (2 8) or Toss (8 9) are also very viable ideas. The only other way to reach Ten Points would be to Toss (3 5), however this is NOT ON THE MENU! 🎏

Let's Toss (3 9) today, which only receives significant help from Three Cuts (333), and is nearly a hundred times as likely to result in Two Points as opposed to reaching Twenty-Four Points (3 3 3 3 9). We probably have about a 5% chance of winning this game, and perhaps as high as a 20% chance of getting SKUNKED. 🦨

After the Trey Cut, *S A D G E* 😥 all the way around. We have the WORST POSSIBLE OUTCOME of just Two Points. Our chances of winning are now reduced even further, maybe in HALF to about 2% or 3%, and the likelihood of a SKUNK is now DOUBLED to over 40%, and must be considered as a very real possibility. Let's lead the 8 Card 🎱 and peg aggressively in order to attempt to avert the SKUNK. 🥀

Tuesday 5:43 AM

Ditto.

Tuesday 5:53 AM

The moment I saw these cards it look like the type to get a three for a cut. So going with gut ( not the best way ) I am leaning on defense . A four or a six starter would have gotten us eight. Long road to haul here. dec

Tuesday 6:40 AM

Thank you everyone - I went with the 2 5 6 8 and counting on anything but the 3 cut - actually in CP, I cut a 6 so not quite as bad as a 3. The other hand of 3 5 6 9 in hind sight would have worked much better with the 6 cut - thanks again!

Tuesday 7:20 AM

this was very difficult for me. I'm hoping to learn today.

Tuesday 7:27 AM

I guess I'm in the majority so far with this ugly hand. I always like options with 3, 6 & 9 so I toss 8, 2 knowing I've already got one of the 5s too.

Tuesday 7:32 AM

Excuse while I go puke! Pick 2 and do my best.

Tuesday 7:35 AM

If you don't know what to do, throw even cards, less gain for the dealer. That was advice I heard in the begging and seems to hold true. Maybe we can keep from being skunked.

Tuesday 12:32 PM

At 75-89* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W2 %___W3 %
3-5-6-8____5.17+1.70+(-4.29)=2.58____0.1____3.9
3-5-6-9____5.04+1.85+(-4.41)=2.48____0.1____3.8
2-5-6-9____4.96+1.91+(-4.52)=2.35____0.1____3.7
2-5-8-9____4.78+1.57+(-4.21)=2.14____0.0____3.2

Offense______L2 %_____L3 %
3-5-6-8_______16.1_____84.6
3-5-6-9_______15.3_____82.5
2-5-6-9_______16.3_____83.6
2-5-8-9_______15.2_____82.6

3-5-6-8 is best for expected averages by 0.10pt. over 3-5-6-9 and although 3-5-6-8 is very slightly best for Win %s 3-5-6-9 is appreciably lowest or Loss %s. So I'll select 2-8 to discard.

Lead________________Our Pegging Points
3__________________________1.80
9__________________________1.54
6__________________________1.51
5__________________________1.29

Tuesday 2:23 PM

This is the only way to score 10 points in the hand. The problem is it does not peg quite as well offensively as 3-5-6-9, and is more likely to give up a lot of points in the pegging; especially with the 2 lead. I'll lead the 8, and desperately hope for the mid-card exchange; hoping to get over the Skunk line as Dealer next hand.

Tuesday 4:42 PM

Least of the evils?