Yesterday's results

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0-0*  ?
62%
10%
10%
8%
6%
1%
0%
Total votes: 251
mrob2199
1378 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Saturday 3:34 AM
I was tempted to throw the K-10 but I’ll stick with the pat 4 point hand -lead the 3 and dump the 5 on your second play if dealer makes it 13 with a J,Q or K
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Rob. Suppose Dealer plays a 7 on our 3 lead. Should we dump the 5 to be rid of it, or pair the 7?
glmccuskey
4044 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Saturday 4:52 AM
Agreeing with Rob this early is never a bad thing.
bbaer1 says: Gary, can you shorten your name so your cards don’t appear disjointed? 😉
Andy (muesli64)
2210 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Saturday 5:16 AM
I like the A-K throw. And best for my hand and pegging.
dec
6291 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 5:16 AM
The strategy here to me is offense as non dealer. Can not pull the trigger on K-10 seems a little too much. Agree with Rob's pegs here. dec
zeke76
1335 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Saturday 6:18 AM
Ditto
horus93
1240 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Saturday 6:38 AM
My mom says “even I know to toss AK from this hand”.

And I agree with her. I see no reason not to play this the normal way. I *will* muck my hand for a heavy balk if the cards are extraordinarily bad; 357T does not meet that threshold. And last time I checked AK is a fairly heavy balk in its own right.

I have to assume the bot plays it weird or Ras wouldn’t have submitted it. I see that A357 improves on every cut; and the bot tends to report relatively high pegging means for hands like that. This is because once in a blue moon you can pull off some crazy run. But I bet like 95+% of the time you’ll peg four or, usually, less with it.

Checking Liam, this leaves a hand averaging 6.5; and a crib averaging 4.1. If you toss TK, you have a hand averaging 5.3, and a crib averaging 3.7. If you proceed by means, I could see your thinking that TK will somehow be on top, but humans are more cognitively flexible than that. And then there’s the whole “hand crib peg average” formula, and I’ve shown how this can be misleading. +1.2 in your scoring is worth more than +0.5 to opponent’s crib in a balancedish spot like 0-0*, especially when you’re comparing balks; and means tend to be thrown off by outliers, as we’ve seen here innumerable times, and this will be especially true in pegging means – means do not reflect distributions very well.

Halscrib is a great tool, but a poor master.

While these cards weren’t bad enough to hurt my scoring to throw a stronger balk… with that cut, they are weak enough to play defense/balanced. I’ve explained the logic of this many times, and also demonstrated how it works in my annotated games. The idea that the only way to win as starting pone is to overcome your deficit is demonstrably false.
Jazzselke
2551 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Saturday 7:34 AM
Will keep the 4 points, commenters 100%.
ILostMyJob
3509 votes

Joined: September 2013

 
 
 
Saturday 7:36 AM
Among my simplest joys in life are cups of coffee and throwing K-10s to opponents crib.
Annabella says: Haha, i agree. Altho would worry about it more if not start of game
lonmower
353 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 7:55 AM
... as we collectively hold our breath(s) as we wait for RAS to enlighten us
james500
3863 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Saturday 7:56 AM
If any of you have read John Chambers' book, "Cribbage: A new concept", you'll know that he recommends wide discards, especially KA. I reckon that's the way to go this afternoon.
Sgt Pegger
220 votes

Joined: July 2017

 
 
 
Saturday 8:02 AM
100%
SallyAnn3
858 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Saturday 8:14 AM
What Gary and James said.
Annabella says: SallyAnn- we do not know each other ‘ live’. I am a complete stranger that stumbled in last month. Still stumbling, but making progress:)
SallyAnn3 says: Glad you found us! Helps balance out all of the testosterone in here :) Though I know many of them in real life, and they are pretty great---especially to share their vast knowledge and skill so willingly :) Welcome
bbaer1 says: If you only have five minutes a day for cribbage learning, this is the place to be.
Annabella says: Yes, thank you. I am finding it very interesting, although sometimes I don’t fully understand the comments. Everyone has been very helpful. Also, *** Thank you for the Welcome, SallyAnn ***
SallyAnn3 says: :)
Inushtuk1
1428 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 8:32 AM
With the vast majority. But I can't help feeling that Ras has a lesson for us. Could I lost my job have the right idea today? Lead the 3, hoping for a 7, or a 10 response.
Inushtuk1 says: *ILostMyJob*
Inushtuk1 says: *ILostMyJob*
Jazzselke says: Mike could you email me at jazzselke@aol.com
Jazzselke says: Mike could you email me at jazzselke@aol.com
Inushtuk1 says: Consider it done Dan. And to everyone else here; in case Rob does not get back to me; if leading my 3 I get a 7, do I pair it, or take the (15-2)? What do y'all think?
Inushtuk1 says: Consider it done Dan. And to everyone else here; in case Rob does not get back to me; if leading my 3 I get a 7, do I pair it, or take the (15-2)? What do y'all think?
HaydenSr says: could be in for another lesson, but if gfd plays a 7 on a 3, id think its a trap either way and they probably dont have a X. id reply with my K, if they are stuck laying a 7 or 5, we have a chance at some easy points.
HaydenSr says: could be in for another lesson, but if gfd plays a 7 on a 3, id think its a trap either way and they probably dont have a X. id reply with my K, if they are stuck laying a 7 or 5, we have a chance at some easy points.
HaydenSr says: sorry, ten instead of K with that hand.
HaydenSr says: sorry, ten instead of K with that hand.
MiketheExpert says: I'm playing the 5 for 15-2 - doesn't seem worthwhile making a play which risks giving up more for less opportunities to score later by pairing, even though it could work to our advantage in terms of net gains.
MiketheExpert says: I'm playing the 5 for 15-2 - doesn't seem worthwhile making a play which risks giving up more for less opportunities to score later by pairing, even though it could work to our advantage in terms of net gains.
MiketheExpert
1062 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Saturday 9:11 AM
I feel like the "lesson" today could show (10 K) has the best value when taking into consideration the top overall crib throw in terms of crib points against, as well as the increased offensive pegging value of a keep like (A 3 5 7), with a 7 lead perhaps. I may try this somedays, but today I'm going to toss wide (A K). Sometimes just simply starting with more points just feels like the right thing to do, and (A K) is no slouch in the enemy crib. The 9 cut doesn't improve my hand at all, but (A 9 K) looks like it needs a 5 in that crib for help, and I already have one of those. Let's lead the 3 from this arrangement and keep things on the down low. I'd like to trade one awful score for another at this point.
MiketheExpert says: I've also seen both "intentions" of what I believe HAL may choose this hand go "sour" on my when I've tried similar plays in the past. (10 K) is the "best" overall balk, yet at the high end can leave me giving up 6-8 pts a considerable amount of the time (boom/bust). Also, (A 3 5 7) has the capability of pulling off a pegging coup or run, but at the same I feel I could be "lucky" if I pull off 3-4 pegging points or more. So much "variability" in the potential results and uncertainty on first deal isn't always a good thing - sometimes a slow and steady, more reliable methodology could be what we need, even if the numbers don't strictly bear this out.
MiketheExpert says: Yesterday was also a very interesting puzzle submitted buy Inushtuk. When I saw the final number crunching, using the "defense" typical first-hand strategy as dealer, I noticed that the pick of (K K) - which I went with (against most of the posters), but with a considerable% of the "silent minority" - LOST in ALL 3 CATEGORIES to that of the discard of (10 J). (Hand average, crib value FOR, and pone pegging points AGAINST). The general philosophy there is the same, but on the opposite side as "dealer". In THIS case, I feel I can more readily make up some of our initial deficit as dealer through the pegging and other means, in trying to MAKE something happen offensively (also against the "basic strategical" advice and what the numbers may bear). Also, the (10 J) increased crib value is on the "hopeful" end of the spectrum, meaning there are more helpful cuts which could "explode" the crib than say (K K), which is essentially heavily reliant on another K, of which there are only 2 remaining). But, even here, you are still throwing a guaranteed 2 points in the crib as dealer, whereas (10 J) could still end up with ZERO).
Coeurdelion
5547 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Saturday 2:44 PM
I think it's probably between A-8-10-J (K-K), A-8-K-K (10-J) and A-J-K-K (8-10):


A-8-10-J: 0pt + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.58) = 4¾pts

A-8-K-K: 2pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.61) = 6¾pts

A-J-K-K: 2pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.80) = 5¾pts

Potential:

A-8-10-J: Improves with AAA, 4444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, 9999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 3/4pts with 4444, 5555, 9999, QQQQ = 16 cuts. Plus 10 cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

A-8-K-K: Improves with AAA, 4444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, KK = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6pts with 4444, 5555, KK = 10 cuts.

A-J-K-K: Improves with AAA, 4444, 5555, JJJ, QQQQ, KK = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/8pts with 4444, 5555, QQQQ, KK = 14 cuts. Plus 10 cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

Position:

As First Dealer positional hole is at 8pts so I'll play Defense but try to score the average 16pts or more safely.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think A-8-K-K and A-J-K-K will peg well.

Summary:

A-8-K-K is best for starting value by 1pt over A-J-K-K but A-J-K-K has the benefit of 0.22pt. nob potential and although it has fewer cuts for improvement it has 14 cuts for 6/8pts. So I'll throw the 8-10.

I'll look at 3-5-10-K (A-7), 3-5-7-10 (A-K) and A-3-5-7 (10-K):

3-5-10-K: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.89) = -¾pt

3-5-7-10: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.30) = -½pt

A-3-5-7: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 3.88) = -2pts

Potential:

3-5-10-K: Improves with 2222, 333, 4444, 555, 777 + 14xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 7/8/10pts with 2222, 4444, 555, 101010, KKK = 17 cuts.

3-5-7-10: Improves with 2222, 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 14xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 7/8/10pts with 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 101010 = 20 cuts.

A-3-5-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 6/7/8pts with 2222, 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777 = 21 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone positional hole is at 18pts so I'll play Offense and try to reach or exceed it.

Pegging:

A-3-5-7 has two low cards, a 5 and a middle card. It also has a 3-card magic eleven and a 4-card magic 16 so I think will peg best playing Offense.

Summary:

3-5-7-10 is best for starting value by ¼pt over 3-5-10-K and it has 3 more cuts for 7-10pts. However A-3-5-7 has guaranteed improvement and 21 cuts for 6-8pts which is a big improvement over 2pts. It also should peg better. So will it make up the 1½pts on 3-5-7-10? I think it probably will so I'll throw the 10-K.
HalscribCLX
5268 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 2:44 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

____________________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-3-5-7____5.30+2.37+(-3.83)=3.84____21.9____21.9
3-5-7-10___6.52+1.22+(-4.12)=3.62____23.1____22.8
3-5-7-K____6.52+1.28+(-4.38)=3.42____23.0____22.3
3-5-10-K___6.13+1.41+(-4.63)=2.91____22.5____22.3

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
A-3-5-7_______36.7____51.7
3-5-7-10______36.8____51.1
3-5-7-K_______37.5____51.7
3-5-10-K______36.9____51.4

A-3-5-7 is best for expected averages by 0.22pt. but 3-5-7-10 is slightly best for expected averages and very slightly lowest for Loss %s. Even so as it's the beginning of the game so I'll decide based on expected averages and select 10-K to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll lead the 7 and play Offense:

Lead_______________Our Pegging Points
7_________________________2.14
3_________________________1.77
A_________________________1.71
5_________________________1.70
Ras2829
5095 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 3:53 PM
For those who refer to me as an Halscrib clone, I accept that as a compliment. It might also be noted that I provided data based on actual play to Hal Mueller and others expressing a desire to develop cribbage tutorials in the early years of the 21st century. Don't know if he or others used any of that to develop algorithms for the earliest programs of more than two decades ago. Am up to 11% this day on holding A-3-5-7. N/d holds a 3-card 11 and a "sweet 16" which provides the added pegging punch. Lead the 7 and take any pegs offered. Of course, this hand is sensitive to what those X-cards look like. Certainly, doesn't work this way if X-pointers are 10-J, J-Q, or J-K.
SallyAnn3 says: As you well should accpet that as a compliment, as well as being a "master". mister! lolol
Ras2829 says: Hi SallyAnn3: Thanks very much and appreciate your efforts to promote the world's greatest card game. BTW, this hand works this way only with the 10-K discard. That average of 3.848 1/91, scores 0-2 points 45.494% provides the edge.
MiketheExpert says: Absolutely, I think HalsCrib is a great source of information, and certainly helped to be developed by a "master" cribbage player himself. Even predicted in this case what HAL would choose almost to the letter, lol :-) Since I sometimes play the same hand differently myself, which especially seems to happen many times for me on the first deal of the game, I'd be happy to give this pick my 1/2 vote.
SallyAnn3 says: ;)
bbaer1 says: Ras, your cribbage acumen overcomes any naysayers. Thank you for improving my game!
Annabella
22 votes

Joined: January 2024

 
 
 
Saturday 4:06 PM
SallyAnn, see reply above.
HaydenSr
1403 votes

Joined: April 2020

 
 
 
Saturday 4:18 PM
Thanks for another lesson Mr. Ras! I pray you have a handful of lustrums left in you!!
JQT
4102 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 6:25 PM
With three Key Connectors in Hand and a Sweet Sixteen to boot in order to bolster our prospects for pegging, as well as help from ANY Cut Card in the deck, all of this conspires to make Toss (T K) the obvious best discard decision as starting Pone today in this very educational RAS Cribbage Puzzle. ☕
HaydenSr says: Damn glad to see you again Mr T!
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: So glad to see you return to the fold. Please ask my permission before you depart another time.
bbaer1 says: Hooray!
SallyAnn3 says: Ditto and ditto :)
RubyTuesday
875 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Sunday 12:04 AM
Didn’t think of throwing K 10.