Friday 3:27 AM

I’ll keep four points this way with the defensive 6-K to opponents crib. Not sure I like middle one, little one (2-8) discard.

   

Friday 3:45 AM

So, it's how you play the minimal hands. Is it worth discarding 2-8 to go for nine-ten points? Survive the first hand of the game. Lead the two muddle the pegging. dec

   

Friday 3:48 AM

Keeping a 3 Card 15 and a 2 card 15 rather than a pair of 2 Card 15s with a balk to the Crib as well

   

Friday 4:31 AM

Just as I often play more offensively than most as starting dealer, I also like to play defense as starting pone sometimes, depending on the cards. Dang near half of my games end up with the starting dealer on offense due to bad cards + balks + playing away on both sides and starting pone playing a defensive game, so if the cards are mediocre like this, I definitely have dealer’s crib and pegging in mind.

Today we can have our cake and eat it too by tossing 6K, which leaves a hand that’s just as good for the show as 56TK (28). My gut was surprised at this, although it is what I would have done in a real game anyway because I’d have figured the count would be close and better defensive pegging + balk was worth more than the gap in hand value. But this turns out to be an equal counting hand anyway, so it’s certainly the right way to go.

56TK is a crappy defensive hand for pone since the bad 11 frequently leads you to give up a 31 or even get trapped in a run with the 56. The only way to avoid these eventualities is often to either lead the five, or pair dealer’s five played to your x, and these are obviously not the most defensive plays and have risks of their own, so a lot of the time you’re hosed no matter what you do. 258T has a safe lead in the 2, it’s hard to read, and it has well-spaced card ranks. 56TK is probably the better offensive hand, but not by enough to make it a favorite.

After the lame cut I'd play cautiously, though would not pass up safeish pegs either.

   

Friday 4:47 AM

I'm in the K-6 group. 2 lead.

   

Friday 4:50 AM

Same as above. Lead the 10 though.

   

Friday 5:01 AM

Starting out with a thud.

   

Friday 5:14 AM

We start another game as Pone with our First Deal as Non Dealer on this Last Day of March 2023.

We can begin with Four Points, but only if we Kep (2 5 8 T) and Toss (6 K) or Keep (5 6 T K) and Toss (2 8) into the Enemy Crib, or we can start with Two Points and Keep (2 5 6 8) and Toss (T K).

Since all three of these ideas appear to receive help from no more than about one-third of the remaining deck, it would seem to be a good opportunity to Toss (T K) and "spike" the Opponent's Crib.

However, Toss (6 K) does this almost as effectively as Toss (T K), and allows us to begin with TWICE as much! Therefore, let's Keep (2 5 8 T) and Toss (6 K) today.

After the 6 Card Cut, one of those Fifteen Cuts (AAAA, 4444, 666, 9999) that cannot help us, we still have just Four Points. Let's lead the Ten "T" Card and try to peg a few holes.

Merging prior stat's (from when The NYTimes "lost" them in 2022) with those from 2023, my current Wordle Averages of Number of Guesses, Successful Attempts, and Percentages, as of Mar 31, 2023 for JQT are:

1 - 0 ( 0.000%)
2 - 5 ( 1.880%)
3 - 60 (22.556%)
4 -116 (43.609%)
5 - 59 (22.180%)
6 - 23 ( 8.647%)
X - 3 ( 1.128%)
----------------------------------------
==>266 (263 in 6 or fewer guesses = 99%)

Thus, I have just below a 2% record of getting the solution in Two Guesses, and about a 25% record of getting the solution in Three (or fewer) Guesses, and about a 68% record of getting the solution in Four (or fewer) Guesses, and about a 90% record of getting the solution in Five (or fewer) Guesses, and about a 99% record of SOLVING ad thus getting the solution in Six (or fewer) Guesses, and maintaining my Current Daily Streak, which is 169 WINS in a row!

Wordle 650 4/6 (took the scenic route)

⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
⬛⬛🟩⬛⬛
⬛⬛🟨⬛🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

   

Friday 5:27 AM

Throwing 6-K seems automatic?

   

Friday 5:39 AM

Agree with others. Rather keep the 3-card "15" vs the 2-card "15". Try to balk the crib with 6-K

   

Friday 7:10 AM

Hello all...Homework Friday if you are so inclined...we have had some interesting & challenging end game puzzles recently..winning often involves effective pegging..keeping with theme ...and..the reason their is betting on horse races is people have different opinions

http://www.cribbageforum.com/Ask2003_02.htm

   

Friday 7:24 AM

I am in the alternative camp that likes to keep 5-6 together. Today it gave me an extra 2 points with the cut. However I certainly see the value of keeping 2-5-8-10.

   

Friday 8:36 AM

The offensive choice as n/d at hand one is to discard 6-k. BTW, as stated above by JQT, the discard is part of that strategy. We often think of balking the crib, playing defense ively wiht the discard. Each element fo the decision is part of the overall strategy. So here discard values, cards retained, their value, and pegging values are all a portion of that offensive strategy. As much as I love the 10-K discard, 2-8, and 6-10 provide greater combined value. So the 10-K choice is actually #4 in this configuration of cards.

   

Friday 10:55 AM

I think it's between 2-5-8-10 (6-K) and 5-6-10-K (2-8):

2-5-8-10: 4pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.14) = -¼pt

5-6-10-K: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.94) = -1pt

Potential:

2-5-8-10: Improves with 222, 3333, 555, 7777, 888, 9999 + 14xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 7/8/10pts with 222, 555, 888, 9999, 101010 = 16 cuts.

5-6-10-K: Improves with 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/9/10pts with 4444, 555, 7777, 101010, KKK = 17 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone positional hole is 18pts and therefore I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

2-5-8-10 has more widespread cards so I think 5-6-10-K may peg a little better playing Offense.

Summary:

2-5-8-10 has a starting value ¾pt higher than 5-6-10-K and it has 3 more cuts for improvement and even though it has 16 cuts for 7-10pts compared with 17 cuts for 5-6-10-K and it should peg better I think 2-5-8-10 will have the advantage. So I'll throw the 6-K.

   

Friday 11:08 AM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-5-8-10___6.26+1.41+(-3.92)=3.75____22.2____22.5
5-6-10-K___6.26+1.87+(-4.68)=3.45____22.9____22.1

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
2-5-8-10______36.0____51.0
5-6-10-K______37.5____51.9

2-5-8-10 is better for expected averages by 0.30pt. and is slightly lower for Loss %s because of the safer throw whilst they're about even on Win %s. So I'll select the 6-K to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll lead the 10 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
10____________________1.47
2_____________________1.37
8_____________________1.35
5_____________________1.20

   

Friday 2:26 PM

All the ideas of this have been covered for me today by JQT, Ras, and HAL. I selected the same "balking" discard of (6 K) due to the difference in crib value, though as can be seen the expected hand average is the same in each case. Only considered tosses of (6 K) and (2 8), as the (10 K) just cuts down our hand potential by too much.