Saturday 3:02 AM

Reluctant A7 with a 3 lead. Lucky with the cut.

   

Saturday 3:39 AM

As above

   

Saturday 3:54 AM

(A 7) for me as well! Would like to keep a chance for an open-ended double run intact here, a chance for a quadrupling effect with a 3 cut, at the same time removing the lone A liability from my hand, without too much negative impact from a defensive standpoint. Bingo (J cut), allowing me the luxury of a free trip to hole 96 without having to peg nary a single point. Wouldn't object too much to the leading the lone 3 here, with my scoring response of 15-2 available for a potentially key 2 points. Have a hard time seeing dealer choosing to pair a 9 lead, if available.

   

Saturday 4:44 AM

Need to keep the best chance for an 8 point hand -combined with the 3 lead that will provide us with 2 points if matched

   

Saturday 4:44 AM

Check lead with either 3 6 8 or J as a cut. Opponent is short they need pegs more then we do now. dec

   

Saturday 5:34 AM

All singing from the same hymnal

   

Saturday 5:52 AM

Ok then

   

Saturday 5:59 AM

Very tricky puzzle today, imo, and something I’d be primed to bungle in a live game, or even as a puzzle. But none of these hands are very good offensive peggers, and we really need to be dealing in okay position to have a shot at winning. While oppo is a threat in the front, only four points short of par, I think we can discard with our own scoring in mind, within reason.

A7 isn’t quite a balk, it’s not an extremely dangerous toss either. This has openings for double runs, and I think it’s best for keeping us in the game overall. 799T is hopenotic – it has a bingo cut in the eight, but improves less well in general, and A3 is way more dangerous than A7. 3799 (AT) and A399 (7T) have good balking tosses, but are sufficiently poorer for the show (not *that* much, but even so) that I will toss A7 today. That said, A399 is pretty close and would peg better, so I think it’s a near call between those two. I know I’m foregoing bingo cuts, but that’s my style, because I never get them.

Another good choice would be tossing 37, but it’s only a hair better than tossing A7 for our scoring, and worse in the crib, so eh, I do think that’s a good play too but it’s not what I’m doing. I like any of 3799 (AT), 799T (A7), and A99T (37) for different reasons, but 3799 and A99T are close enough in the show, not to mention the risk of a lone ace in the pegging, that I think this way is defensible. While everyone else so far is doing this, I don't think it's inevitable or a no-brainer.

Bingo cut, I’d play “normal” in the pegging, like the three lead for a retaliatory fifteen, keep 99 and 9T together for later, see where we’re at next hand.

To finish up my game with Denmark:

7.) 80*-89

Denmark had an easy call, throwing me 2T to hold 567J.

I dealt myself 2234JQ. There’s no way to discard for defensive pegging here without destroying my scoring, so I tossed the JQ. Besides, with only an 11 point surplus in the back, I can’t normally afford defensive considerations in the discard unless it’s a close call, or the cards are extremely strong.

Cut was an 8 – didn’t hit any of the Jacks in question.

Pegging went 6-2(8)-7(15-2)-4(19)-J(29)-2(31-2)//5-3(8-1)

I’m not sure why Denmark led a six here from 567J. The more I think about it, the more wrong it seems.

Two response on my part makes sense – fewer losers, keep a diversity of cards for defensive pegging.

When he got the fifteen, I played my four to drive off a five, hoping for a X response and then a 31 with my other two, which is indeed how it went down. Subtle defensive considerations didn’t seem to outweigh this textbook offensive ploy. Cards played themselves from there.

So between his fifteen and his seven point hand, Denmark is dealer at 99*. And my sweet hand, with a three point crib, brings me all the way to 98.

8.) 98-99*

Denmark’s only +4, I have a +13 surplus in the back to defend, what could go wrong? Well, this is when it all went bad. REALLY bad.

Denmark had weak cards and tossed himself JQ to hold A779. So far so good, right?

I was dealt 2449JJ and tossed the best balk available, 29, to hold 44JJ.

The cut was a five giving me nob.

Pegging went: 4-9(13)-4(17)-7(24)-“go”-7(31-4)//J-A(11)-J(21-1)

So… four lead is standard. He plays the 9. If I play my Jack, I have pretty bad odds of giving up a 31 – he only needs a single 8 to do this. So I play my four. And you see what happened next.

I don’t think this was a mistake though. The odds of his holding *two* sevens to peg four are much lower than his holding *one* eight to peg two (no, it’s not a matter of being “half as likely”), even besides the bias of an eight being nearer a nine than a seven. Statistically, I think this play made sense, but it blew up in this case. One play risks giving up two, one risks giving up four, but the latter is less than half as likely – besides the math of being dealt two sevens, there’s dealer bias to put pairs in his crib.

With his four point hand and four point crib, and the big peg play, he’s pone at 113. My nine point hand + last brings me to 108*.

9.) 108*-113

Can’t lie, I was pretty rattled about that 31-4. But luckily nothing that followed required much in the way of brains. I tossed myself 36 to hold A4JK.

Denmark tossed me QK to hold 3788, easy choice there too.

The cut was… a seven.

Pegging went: 8-K(18)-7(25)-4(29)-“go”-A(30-1)//8-J(18)-3(21-1)

Play wasn’t that remarkable, I played as defensively as I could. It didn’t matter what I played anyway. Denmark had defeated me yet again. My conclusion – he is a good player, but not enough to justify a 70+% win rate against me. Dude is lucky, it’s all luck!!!! I don’t think I made any true mistakes this game, though some plays were certainly debatable. Even the ones I castigate as questionable, there are arguments for the way I went, and anyway they all worked out well. Denmark’s biggest mistake was leading the six from 567J on offense, and tossing himself KK from 888KKK – both of these plays worked out pretty well for him anyway. Another nightmare on fourth street. I have good position coming toward end game, and then my oppo takes off.

Why so many losses in these annotated games? Well for one thing even the best players lose all the time, that’s just how cribbage goes. But for another I really have been having absolutely abysmal luck lately. But in cribbage maybe more than most games, “it’s not whether you win or lose, it’s how you play the game”.

   

Saturday 7:48 AM

Keeping the 9-9-T potential for the double run. I hate tossing 2s or 3s into my opponent crib so goodby A-7

   

Saturday 9:11 AM

There's often a struggle in Cribbage to become the First Dealer at or beyond the Fourth Street Par Hole 96, and the player who does this is thought to have a distinct Positional Advantage.

Today's puzzle finds us in a familiar Push-Pull scenario, because while we want to hold the Dealer back even further, we also wish to meet our own goal, which is to become Next Dealer at or beyond Hole 96.

Eight Points will get us to this "target," and while this is Two Points below Pone Average, we notice that our card arrangement hardly lends itself to too much optimism on this goal of ours.

It's tempting to retain the 9-9-T trio and try for the Eight Cuts (8888, JJJJ) that would give us the Double Run, which will "cover" those much-needed Eight Points. But we might also look at Toss (7 T) to better ensure the safety in the Enemy Crib, a goal that can be met.

Keep (3 9 9 T) and Toss (A 7) is minimally defensive, and this idea has Seventeen Cuts (333, 6666, 8888, 99, JJJJ) that yield Six Points or more, which is 17/46 or nearly 40% of the remaining deck.

Keep (3 7 9 9) and Toss (A T) is somewhat defensive, and this idea has Thirteen Cuts (333, 6666, 8888, 99) that yield Six Points or more, which is 13/46 or about 28% of the remaining deck.

Keep (A 3 9 9) and Toss (7 T) is not merely attractive for its defensive properties; this idea also has Seventeen Cuts (2222, 333, 5555, 6666, 99) that yield Six Points or more, which is 17/46 or nearly 40% of the remaining deck.

I think we should accept the fact that this arrangement will leave us "short" of our own desired "target" greater than 50% of the time with ANY discard, therefore, I am more inclined to lean toward a defensive approach when it comes to our Opponent, an objective that can be attained by the cards we were dealt.

Let's Toss (7 T) today, and try to slam on the brakes.

After the Jack Cut, we are 'stuck' with just Two Points. Let's lead a 9 Card from our PAIR, and defend as best we can, while taking any safe and opportunistic pegs.

   

Saturday 9:53 AM

Funny. I thought of ((3-7), and (7-10) only in that order. Turns out most of the usual 'suspects' are picking 3-9-9-10(A-7). Perhaps I'm guilty of tunnel vision, and that's why the mods let this one through. I will stubbornly stick with A-9-9-10)(3-7) for the 5 Card Cut Insurance. After the J cut I will be Dealer at 96 or better. I will lead my 9s; if only to keep three scoring responses to Dealer's first card. Then I can fake a flush, and dump my lone Ace next card.

   

Saturday 10:07 AM

Well I’m the only person commenting who kept the 7 although my throw of A 3 is the second most popular throw today - I guess I’ve made the lurking newbie throw? I wanted to keep 10 9 9 in case an 8 or J were drawn and couldn’t see much difference between A 3, A 7 or 3 7, so threw the first option, mostly because I had no idea what was best.

   

Saturday 2:12 PM

If we keep the pair of 9s, the only points dealt to us, then we can throw 7-10, 3-10, A-10, A-7, 3-7 or A-3. I don't think we should throw the gapper and both peggers. So that leaves 5 options and I'll look at all those.

A-3-9-9: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = -2¼pts

A-7-9-9: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.63) = -2½pts

3-7-9-9: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.48) = -2½pts

3-9-9-10: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.89) = -2¾pts

A-9-9-10: 2pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.01) = -3pts

Potential:

A-3-9-9: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 5555, 6666, 99 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/8/9pts with 2222, 333, 5555, 6666, 99 = 17 cuts.

A-7-9-9: Improves with AAA, 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, 99 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/10pts with 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, 99 = 17 cuts.

3-7-9-9: Improves with 333, 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, 99 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/8/10pts with 333, 6666, 8888, 99 = 13 cuts.

3-9-9-10: Improves with 2222, 333, 5555, 6666, 8888, 99, 101010, JJJJ = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 6/8pts with 333, 6666, 8888, 99, JJJJ = 17 cuts.

A-9-9-10: Improves with AAA, 4444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 99, 101010, JJJJ = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 6/8pts with 5555, 6666, 8888, 99, JJJJ = 18 cuts.

Position:

Opponent is 5pts short of 4th street positional hole while we need 8pts to reach it. I think we need to stretch the game to three more deals and keep them far enough back so they don't peg out on the third deal. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

With two low cards and a pair of high cards I think A-3-9-9 will peg best.

Summary:

I think it's between A-3-9-9 and A-9-9-10. A-3-9-9 has the best starting value by ¾pt over A-9-9-10 while A-9-9-10 has more cuts for improvement. A-3-9-9 has 17 cuts for 6-9pts and A-9-9-10 has 18 cuts for 6/8pts. I also think A-3-9-9 will peg best and 7-10 is the best balker we have in the crib so I'll go with this.

   

Saturday 2:13 PM

At 88-91* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Dlr's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total_____W2 %___W3 %
3-9-9-10___4.43+(-2.96)+(-4.61)=(-3.14)___4.1____32.4
A-3-9-9____4.00+(-2.93)+(-4.26)=(-3.19)___3.6____31.0
A-9-9-10___4.52+(-2.91)+(-4.95)=(-3.34)___3.5____30.0
3-7-9-9____3.91+(-2.87)+(-4.42)=(-3.38)___7.0____32.9
A-7-9-9____3.96+(-2.85)+(-4.65)=(-3.54)___3.8____29.7
7-9-9-10___4.35+(-2.98)+(-5.01)=(-3.64)___5.2____30.2

Defense_____L2 %___L3 %
3-9-9-10_____20.1___58.0
A-3-9-9______18.9___59.0
A-9-9-10_____21.1___60.8
3-7-9-9______19.5___56.5
A-7-9-9______20.8___60.8
7-9-9-10_____22.9___60.3

3-9-9-10 is best for expected averages by 0.05pt. over A-3-9-9. However 3-7-9-9 is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s so as we're approaching the critical positional hole on 4th street I'll decide based on the Win/Loss %s and select A-10 to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the 3 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead__________Net Pegging Points
3__________________(-1.19)
9__________________(-1.43)
7__________________(-1.89)

   

Saturday 2:39 PM

Choosing a defense strategy, like 3-7-9-9 as it allows the discard of the A-10, much preferable and lower scoring compared to A-7. Knowing that have only two points will shift to offense once seeing the starter card. Will lead the 9. Had chosen defense, would have led the trey. A-9 and A-10 are the only two low-scoring discards among the six and in this position prefer holding two points rather than zilch. Will take any pegs offered and don't expect to be offered any.