Tuesday 3:23 AM

Keeping eight so to me 5-9 like 5-A a low impact discard. Leading an eight. No significant on the nine keep I went two spaces discarding card #1 and card #4. dec

Tuesday 3:45 AM

I'm sure I'm just missing the argument against this hold.

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The old saying is you can't win on 1st street, but you can lose it. Sure felt that way after hand 1 today. Don't know whether to re-think the hold, the peg, or just accept the bad-luck of a

Tuesday 3:54 AM

Keep the 8 points.

Tuesday 4:38 AM

Off topic, but I know there are chess players amongst us. I wish to give my condolences to the friends and family of GM Daniel, "Danya", Naroditsky who died over the weekend. The cause of death has not yet been given, although rumours abound that it was suicide brought on by the mental strain of trying to defend himself against the allegations of cheating that he faced, notably from GM Vladimir Kramnik. Tragic in any case.

https://www.chess.com/news/view/grandmaster-daniel-naroditsky-dies-at-29

Tuesday 4:55 AM

Keeping 8 points and the pair of 8s

Tuesday 5:04 AM

Echo. Also agree with Dan #1 on 59.

Tuesday 5:38 AM

Pone tosses (5-9). Dealer tosses (5-8). this is the standard play. But I'm sure has a reason for this puzzle at this score. We are +14, Dealer is -2. Maybe 5-8-9-10(8-10)?

Tuesday 5:40 AM

Have to keep the sure 8, whether its 5-8 or 5-9. Lead the 8, play off and nurse the lead.

Tuesday 6:00 AM

I am on the oh-so remote island... (I won the scrimmage though).

Tuesday 6:16 AM

Not sure why I kept both 9s.

Tuesday 6:36 AM

Believe 5-9 to be the least toxic discard out of these 6 cards to opponent’s crib and gives us a shot at 14/15/16.

Tuesday 6:53 AM

I sent 8 & 5 because too many As find their way to the crib which would give him and easy 15. Cut didn't help.
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Tuesday 7:04 AM

My turn to echo the Dans'....hmmm am I repeating myself/ Another great puzzle Scott....ok I gotta stop.

Tuesday 7:18 AM

I don't think this is right, but I finally chose it today because it felt like the hybrid of some defense and some offense.

This made me wonder, when in a position like this, is a hybrid approach ever the answer?

From this position I was looking defense and I think the 8-10 is the best pure defensive decision. But 8-10 leaves little offense. Is 8-9 so much worse today that the extra offense doesn't matter?

I'd guess 8-9 and 8-10 probably give up points to crib similarly, but 8-9 probably had a higher explosion potential. If it doesn't explode then they're pretty similar (though this line of thinking probably falls apart when asked, "well, what if the 5-9 doesn't explode?")

So, I'll stand with the hybrid approach today even though my gut tells me to play full defense.

Tuesday 7:48 AM

Yup. This discard of 5-9 is worth it. 8-9 as the discard is nearly as strong as 5-9 to opponent’s crib. Lead with 8. See about safely dropping the other 8 before “go” then you’re left with 9-10 to lead with 9 and catch run on opponent’s J or pair on 10.

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Tuesday 8:07 AM

I echo Scot echoing the Dans. Dan #2 taught me not to be afraid of 5/9, plaus I think most people hang on to their aces.

Tuesday 9:43 AM

I'd rather pass 5/9 than 5/8

Tuesday 12:55 PM

At 68*-74 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total___W3 %____W4 %
8-8-9-10___10.17+(-2.85)+(-6.06)=1.26____11.4____44.0
8C-9-9-10__10.17+(-2.93)+(-6.17)=1.07____11.5____44.0

Defense______L3 %____L4 %
8-8-9-10______9.0_____36.4
8C-9-9-10_____9.1_____36.7

8-8-9-10 is better for expected averages by 0.19pt. and although 8C-9-9-10 is very, very slightly better for Win %s 8-8-9-10 is very slightly lower for Loss %s. So, I'll select a 5-9 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead an 8 and play Defense:

Lead____________Dealer's Pegging Points
8_______________________(-2.57)
10______________________(-2.68)
9_______________________(-2.70)

Tuesday 7:20 PM

Ditto 5-9 is the toss.

Tuesday 8:30 PM