Thursday 3:05 AM

Today we are Five Points CLOSER than we were yesterday in a very similar Cribbage Endgame Puzzle, so let's map out this one as we did yesterday. Once again, let's treat the Crib Values as "Don't Cares."

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(116-112*) (Ah 2c 6s 8c Th Td) Cut = 6h, by Andy (muesli64), May 15, 2025.

Dump the T-T Idea:

Keep (A 2 6 8) and Toss (T T)

Expected Hand Average is 204 DIV 46 = 4.435
(minus) Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 6.080
Total is 4.435 (Crib is "Don't Care," so do not subtract it!)

04x09=036 - 7777 (Maximum Hand, 4 cuts = 9 Points)
03x08=024 - 666 (7 cuts >= 8 Points)
06x06=036 - AAA, 888 (13 cuts >= 6 Points)
04x05=020 - 3333 (17 cuts >= 5 Points)
15x04=060 - 222, 4444, 5555, 9999 (32 cuts >= 4 Points)
14x02=028 - TT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK (Minimum Hand, 14 Cuts = 2 Points)
46 ___ 204

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Dump the T-T Idea:

Keep (A 6 8 T) and Toss (2 T)

Expected Hand Average is 188 DIV 46 = 4.087
(minus) Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 4.590
Total is 4.087 (Crib is "Don't Care," so do not subtract it!)

08x07=056 - 7777, 9999 (Maximum Hand, 8 cuts = 7 Points)
09x06=054 - AAA, 666, 888 (17 cuts >= 6 Points)
10x04=040 - 4444, 5555, TT (27 cuts >= 4 Points)
19x02=038 - 222, 3333, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK (Minimum Hand, 19 Cuts = 2 Points)
46 ___ 188

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Dump the A-2 Idea:

Keep (6 8 T T) and Toss (A 2)

Expected Hand Average is 186 DIV 46 = 4.043
(minus) Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 5.070
Total is 4.043 (Crib is "Don't Care," so do not subtract it!)

04x10=040 - 9999 (Maximum Hand, 4 cuts = 10 Points)
04x07=028 - 7777 (8 cuts >= 7 Points)
06x06=036 - 5555, TT (14 cuts >= 6 Points)
09x04=036 - AAA, 666, 888 (23 cuts >= 4 Points)
23x02=046 - 222, 3333, 4444, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK (Minimum Hand, 23 Cuts = 2 Points)
46 ___ 186

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This keeps getting progressively worse, so no need to go any further: the (A 2 6 8) Hand is the best we can do from this motley arrangement! We notice that we can reach our goal and get Five Points or more after Seventeen Cuts (AAA, 3333, 666, 7777, 888), and this translates into 17/46 equals 0.370 which shall occur about 37% of the time when we shall WIN with certainty, unless the Dealer can somehow peg Nine Holes!

We may also end up with just Four Points after Fifteen Cuts (222, 4444, 5555, 9999), and this translates into 15/46 equals 0.326 which shall occur nearly 33% of the time, after which we shall need to peg One Hole.

Even in the Worst-Case Scenario, after the remaining Fourteen Cuts (TT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), which translates into 14/46 equals 0.304 which shall occur around 30% of the time, we'll only have Two Points, and therefore we'll need to peg Three Holes in order to WIN about a third of the time.

Let's Toss (T T) and unload those two "boat anchors" today. After the 6 Card Cut, we're Home-Free, as long as the Dealer cannot out-peg us by a Nine-to-Four-Hole margin. Let him or her try!

We could probably make a valid case for leading ANY card here, but I will lead the 8 Card, and if the Dealer drops a 7 Card on this, I'll "bite" and play the 6 Card, bringing the score to (119-114). If the Dealer PAIRS an 8 Card, I will 'Play Off' with the Ace. 🍹 🥨 🍉

Wordle 1,426 6/6 (an embarrassment to my community)

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Thursday 3:08 AM

Really couldn't ask for a better starter card! Keep smaller cards for pegging.

Thursday 3:10 AM

17 cuts put us out -15 cuts get us to 4 with a great chance of pegging 1- if we don’t go out the dealer is winning anyways so the pair of tens is basically a moot point-Full blown offense here

Thursday 3:15 AM

I'll keep the guaranteed two points from the tens. Keeping the 2 and 6 gives me an 8 count should the cut be a 7, so the actual 8 card can go. Keep the big pair as long as possible in the pegging. Maybe I'll get to say, "go", and then play the last card in the next play through, or even pair myself for three points.

Wordle 1,426 6/6

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Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
15th May 2025
🏆Score: 121 to 109
🌋SP: 1670
📅Streak: 16
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/488/3333658/1

Thursday 3:19 AM

Many ways to get to four meld in your hand but not to five, so I will keep what I hope is the best pegger for that extra hole or three.

Thursday 3:40 AM

When nearly 70 percent of cuts adds to hand its the keep for me. If no help slight chances the A-2 gets us a pegger for five. Which I would break up now in the pegging. Two lead. dec

Thursday 3:50 AM

Thursday 4:30 AM

Got cuts and can peg it even if we miss.

Thursday 4:59 AM

Echo.need pegging cards.

Thursday 5:02 AM

Same here

Thursday 5:09 AM

Needed anything but paint and got it

Thursday 5:21 AM

I sold out for peggers. I would have looked foolish if a 10 were cut.

Thursday 6:15 AM

I like it this way and I think this gives us the best chance of winning

Thursday 6:45 AM

Cuts…All the number ranks add at least two points & I am starting with two ..and I like the A & 2 for pegging ..leading an eight
🤞for something like 8(8)..x(18)..2(20)..x(30)..A(31)..regardless the cut gets me out

Thursday 7:13 AM

Next......

Thursday 9:33 AM

Thursday 12:52 PM

At 116-112* playing a BOLD strategy for the pegging the Win/Loss %s are:

BOLD____________Win %_________Loss %
A-2-6-8__________78.2__________21.8
A-6-8-10_________71.3__________28.7
A-8-10-10________68.8__________31.2
6-8-10-10________66.8__________33.2

A-2-6-8 is considerably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So, I'll select the 10-10 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll lead the A and play Defense:

Lead________Dealer's Pegging Points
A___________________(-2.48)
2___________________(-2.48)
8___________________(-2.73)
6___________________(-2.79)

Thursday 1:42 PM

Here is the most intriguing Cribbage Endgame Pegging Battle I had among several dozen playouts:

(116-112*) (Ah 2c 6s 8c) (Th Td) vs (Ac 2s 2h 9c) (Kd Kc) Cut = Tc

8! (8) 2! (10) 2 (12-2) 2 (14=6) A (15-2) A (16=2) 6 (22) 9 (31=2), (120-121). We LOSE. 👾 🥀 🍋

As Pone, I needed to peg Three Holes, and I found my way to peg Four Holes, but in the process, the Dealer secured VICTORY with Last Card, and even nailed Thirty-One "on the nose" to make the (extra) point! 🎯 🎢 🏀