Tuesday 3:27 AM

We could roll the dice and try Toss (8 8), but I feel that Toss (6 9) with its weaker average might be more prudent.

The Jack Cut seems to help more than hurt, but we still need to watch our Opponent's movement, since they are the Dealer.

We should be able to take over control of this game, as long as the Dealer's Crib does not explode.

Our Next Deal with "Three Counts" to come makes this position hopeful, but as I said recently, any Dealer on Fourth Street must be respected as a legitimate threat.

   

Tuesday 3:33 AM

Tough puzzle Jason-I’m pretty sure we discussed this hand before and it hasn’t gotten any easier LOL-I think we have to keep the 556 together here, so it’s either 88 or 89,obviously 2 dangerous tosses at this juncture of the game/slightly favor the 88 so I can keep the 9 for the extra 2 points and the slightly more spaced out hold

   

Tuesday 4:35 AM

I’m hoping 8-8 is a two point crib. I’ll lead the six and peg as defensively as I can.

   

Tuesday 4:56 AM

Fives and nines aren't natural bedfellows, but any 5-? guarantees something in the crib. I just hope that it's a small something.

Happy Star Wars day to all.

   

Tuesday 5:09 AM

Went for the four cut or a minimal non cut across the board. Lead the six we will probably know our fate better once we see their response. dec

   

Tuesday 5:53 AM

Very tough hand to receive at dealer’s position. Would completely break up hand if we only had cards to do that. For me, I got to keep 5-5-6 together here and toss either 8-8 or 8-9. Opted for 8-9 with fingers crossed.

   

Tuesday 6:07 AM

Nice puzzle. Anything you toss the dealer might go BOOM in the crib. I'll try 88 and keep the 556 together in case a 4 gets cut. Lead the 6 and ditch the 5s. If the dealer has similar cards, we'll take a beating on the pegging.

   

Tuesday 6:21 AM

This was a grass roots game against glmccuskey - I believe I tossed 8-9, cut a 9, and he ended up with a 17 crib.

But results do not equate to a correct/incorrect method.

I’m still split between 8-8 and 8-9 here, with some slight consideration to 6-9 and 5-9.

   

Tuesday 6:23 AM

I need 21 points to win and dealer needs 29. I can hear JQT whispering PATIENCE in my good ear. So my strategy is to make this a three hand game with me counting first two hands from now. from Ras..ten most frequent dealer discards to own crib in order 1-10 ..7/8,2/3,6/9,6/7,A/2,A/3,6/8,8/9,7/9 & Q/K. The goal is for me to move up the board but also stymy dealer from getting 19 points this hand. Tossing 8-8 or 6-9 seems to be inviting trouble. I am huddled with James today looking for additional comrades. My ( our!) keep gets help from 11/13 ranks. 5-9 is one of the four potentially least harmful discards including a five. With the J cut, W/L likely comes down to if the dealer now earns 19 points this hand. BTW...Pone discarding 5-9 to dealer crib averages less than 8-8 or 6-9.

   

Tuesday 7:02 AM

I threw 8 8 to dealer in the hope that it doesn’t prove my undoing. I had to keep 5 5 6 together, decided that giving dealer 2 points and keeping 2 points meant that I didn’t throw 8 9.

   

Tuesday 7:21 AM

Close call, if we keep 2 extra points with the 9 we are giving the opponent a sure 2 points, whereas the 89 is still dangerous but not a guaranteed 2. Hitting the 5569 with the best cut still places us 7 points short without pegging, so I will hope for 2 more deals counting first.

   

Tuesday 7:28 AM

The score indicates you need to defend as much as possible. No 5 throw into the opponent's crib, no pair of 8's which so often blows up...The best you can do in this situation is 8D 9. You are keeping 2 points with tremendous chances to improve the hand on most cuts. Only the 3 will not help you here. The problem here will be what to lead. There is nothing that does not pose a risk of giving up quite a few pegging points. Either lead of 6 or 8 is dangerous, especially if dealer decides to pair it. I may seriously consider leading one of the 5's, which he is likely to 15, and then you will have to continue with your next 5 and defend as much as possible.

   

Tuesday 8:23 AM

I don't need the points here, I need defense. And with opponent dealing short I can give up a few extra, although not a huge amount. 5-8 and 5-9 max out at a potential for 14 whereas the other tosses have potential for 20 to 24. And holding the 5-5-6 won't put me out even with a great cut. I'll toss the 8 as I believe it's less synergistic with the 5 for a big hand. The Jack is a very disappointing cut and could hurt, but the crib cards I know are spread out a bit. Definitely and unpopular choice today. We'll see if Halscrib even choses to evaluate it.

   

Tuesday 9:02 AM

In my mind, giving away 2 fer sure points with the 9,6 is the least possible evil compared to the mayhem that COULD result with the other options.

   

Tuesday 10:34 AM

Choosing defense or offense, tossing 8-8 has the greater combined value as Ace, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, J, Q, and K score 8 or more points. Anyway you toss it the combined value begins with a minus sign. Don't know what win/loss percentages might be. Think it likely that win and loss percentages will be higher with the 8-8 toss. N/d increases chance to win at the same time increasing chances to lose with the 8-8 toss. A major reason for that is that pair will score two points 27.282% of the time. Conversely, the 8-8 will score 8 or more points 37.154% with 1/3 of those in 12-24 range. Got to hope for the former, lead the 6 and try to wiggle away, hoping to split the fives (5C) next play. Might as well fake the flush although showing adjacent cards in a suit is generally not noticed. A flush is much easier to fake if showing a suited 9-K, 6-Q, etc.

   

Tuesday 11:05 AM

Prefer 8-9 to avoid nasty accidents in the crib.

   

Tuesday 12:17 PM

I'm with Ras explanation.

   

Tuesday 2:06 PM

Yeah....hitting the same toss as most of the big playrs...my day is complete lol

   

Tuesday 3:19 PM

Heads up:

The 2 tourneys Wed 4 May:

1. UKCA at 11am PDT
2. "Monica's Tournament" 4pm PDT

Fun, free, all welcome. 5 games.

To sign up, go to bracketjd.com

   

Tuesday 4:40 PM

I think it's between 5-5-8-8 (6-9) and 5-5-6-9 (8-8):

5-5-8-8: 4pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.26) = -2¼pts

5-5-6-9: 4pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 6.82) = -2¾pts

Potential:

5-5-8-8: Improves with 2222, 55, 7777, 88 + 16xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/10/12pts with all cuts.

5-5-6-9: Improves with AAAA, 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 999 + 16xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 8/10/14pts with all cuts.

Position:

Opponent is 4pts short of 4th street positional hole while we need 16pts to get into a reasonable position to peg out next deal. So I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 5-5-6-9 will peg better.

Summary:

5-5-8-8 is better for starting value by ½pt but 5-5-6-9 has more cuts for improvement all of which will score 8-14pts compared to 28 cuts for 8-12pts for 5-5-8-8. Also 5-5-6-9 should peg better so I'll throw the 8-8.

   

Tuesday 4:43 PM

At 100-92* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib____Total_____W1 %___W2 %
5-5-6-9____7.91+(-3.65)+(-5.83)=(-1.57)___0.4____52.1
5-5-8-8____6.87+(-3.50)+(-5.54)=(-2.17)___0.0____48.9
5-5-6-8H___6.26+(-3.72)+(-5.06)=(-2.52)___5.0____48.9

Defense______L1 %___L2 %
5-5-6-9_______3.4____33.4
5-5-8-8_______1.5____29.6
5-5-6-8H______2.8____29.9

5-5-6-9 is best for expected averages by 0.60pt over 5-5-8-8 and 0.95pt over 5-5-6-8H. However in this critical board position 5-5-6-8H is slightly best for Win %s and is second best lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 8D-9 to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the 6 and play Defense:

Lead____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
6_____________________(-3.12)
8_____________________(-3.15)
5_____________________(-3.20)