Sunday 3:07 AM

IMO I don't really want to toss 5-Q to opponent at this position. Rather I will keep 6 points with a good chance that will the hand will increase to at least 8 points with a cut plus give opponent a balking 9-Q in his crib.

   

Sunday 3:09 AM

Can allow them a maximum of 19 points during the next two hands, against an average of 26.

3c lead from my 3-3-5 eleven.

   

Sunday 4:25 AM

Don’t like the percentages of cutting the remaining 3 in the deck for a game winning 24 hand-much prefer the odds of cutting one of the 4 fours left for a 21 hand,with a decent shot to peg a 4 and the maximum defensive discard of Q9 to opponents crib

   

Sunday 4:50 AM

that 101 position aids in making this the decision for me also. Those 3-6-9 decisions often the lowest odds chances to get the homerun hand. Three diamonds lead . dec

   

Sunday 4:54 AM

By popular demand!

   

Sunday 5:06 AM

I'm keeping the 12 points and hoping for help from a 3 6 or 9.

   

Sunday 5:17 AM

Same as Kelliher , can’t get off the 12 Points even giving them the 5 . Bad Cut here for me Today , good Cut of a 4 for me yesterday .

   

Sunday 5:46 AM

A little better odds to cut a 4 vs the last 3, and the balking 9-Q may leave dealer short if they have a sub-par hand. Nice puzzle Sally.

   

Sunday 5:57 AM

Don’t think we can risk the Q5 toss.

   

Sunday 6:36 AM

morning ..trying to understand Hal’s decision yesterday...even though we are dealer... did he chose to analyze Pone’s winning / losing chances because he, as dealer , chose defense ..and thus wanted to show the influence of dealer playing defense for specific holds effecting Pones future chances of winning the game in five or six more hands ? Would have thought he would have analyzed dealer chances regardless of choosing offense or defense .

   

Sunday 6:37 AM

No win situation.

   

Sunday 6:55 AM

Most places on the board, other than perhaps to start a game, I would Toss (9 Q).

This way, instead of just ONE 'Ka-boom, Ka-bang Cut' we have Four Cuts, or a 4 DIV 46 equals 0.087 which is nearly a 9% shot at Twenty-One Points.

And since we discarded defensively, we have an additional small chance to proceed and score a Hand and Crib as Next Dealer.

Sunday 7:44 AM

With the herd. Just cut a 4 like Sally apparently did!

   

Sunday 8:18 AM

So apparently, all of the things I've been learning on her paid off today, as I thought of how many hands were left in the game, and did it "right" today. Maybe I am more motivated by money to meet my expenses, trying to make points, and having live people around to tell me my mistakes! lol. In the game, I went for broke. Must have already had a down card. Yes, I cut the 4, and now know that when I post something, I'm going to use the green box to say what the cut was :)

   

Sunday 10:50 AM

With the pegs as are, looking at the six cards, it's defense for sure, and that will remain SAFE after seeing the starter card. Dealer at hole 101, if scoring the average 16 points, will have first count upcoming deal from 117. Should be able to shave a few holes from that 16 average with the 9-Q discard average as 42.224% are of two point or less and a zero cribs are quite common with 9-Q. That's the hope here. Can we limit dealer to ten points? It's 6.5 to 1 against doing so. That's the challenge; so play the safe 3C, not likely that dealer will pair, if so, take the six pegs for the triple. If no pair of lead which is very unlikely, let's ditch that 5C second card played (fake flush though not of much value in this situation) if that looks SAFE. Then we'll be holding the very safe 3-3.

   

Sunday 6:21 PM

It seems to be between 3-3-3-9 (5-Q) and 3-3-3-5 (9-Q):

3-3-3-9: 12pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.34) = +4½pts

3-3-3-5: 6pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = +2pts

Potential:

3-3-3-9: Improves with 3, 6666, 999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 16/20/24pts with all cuts.

3-3-3-5: Improves with AAAA, 3, 4444, 555, 6666, 7777, 999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 12/21pts with 3, 4444, 7777, 999 = 12 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is 5pts past 4th street positional hole and we're 14pts short of where we would like to be, so I'd like to have the chance to peg/hold out next deal therefore I'll play ultra-defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense 3-3-3-9 will peg well but with a 3-card magic eleven I think 3-3-3-5 will peg more.

Summary:

In this position expected averages are of lesser importance to winning chances and although 3-3-3-9 has one cut which will get us out with the 3 for 24pts and 3 for 20pts (999) 3-3-3-5 has four cuts for 21pts (4444) plus it will peg better whilst the 9-Q is approx. 3¼pts safer in opponent's crib. Therefore I'll throw the 9-Q.

   

Sunday 6:23 PM

At 97-101* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
3-3-3-5_____9.48+1.65+(-4.09)=7.04____3.4____16.1
3-3-3-9____13.13+1.04+(-7.57)=6.60____3.4____10.4
3-3-5-Q_____6.65+1.80+(-4.21)=4.24____0.0____11.1
3-3-5-9*____6.61+1.54+(-4.24)=3.91____0.0____10.6

Offense______L1 %___L2 %
3-3-3-5_______14.1___71.3
3-3-3-9_______27.3___82.9
3-3-5-Q_______13.9___75.6
3-3-5-9*______14.7___75.8

3-3-3-5 has the best expected averages by 0.44pt and is very muchbest for Win %s and Lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 9-Q to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead a 3 and plat Defense:

Lead_________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3___________________(-2.20)
5___________________(-3.65)