Thursday 3:03 AM

When we have two PAIRS, and when we ignore suits (as we can do during our investigation today), we shall have Eight Discard Choices.

We'd like to become the Next Dealer from well beyond Hole 70, the Third Street PAR Hole, and this looks readily achievable. Since we are so close, I think we can adopt a *defensive* posture here.

Three of these seem to be viable today: Toss (A 4), Toss (4 Q), and Toss (A Q). The other five choices involve giving away a 5 Card or a PAIR, and there's no profit in that!

The risk of Toss (A 4) allows use to begin with Six Points, while the other two discards have us start with just Four Points. Since we have decided to defend, let's look at the last two ideas.

Of course, we shall probably throw unsuited cards when we decide, unless we are wanting to hone our Fake Flush pegging acumen.

Toss (4 Q) probably has some Negative Delta, as we have a PAIR of each rank, and we were also dealt an Ace and a 5 Card. But Toss (A Q) seems even safer.

On the surface, it would seem that Toss (A Q) is simply better. When we combine this thought with the desire to be defensive, that clinches it!

After the 7 Card Cut, let's lead a 4 Card from our PAIR.

   

Thursday 3:19 AM

A different decision, but the same observation as John: I have a Queen and a 4 in my hand, so the Q and 4 I discard are less likely to be matched in the crib. I also have an Ace and a 5 further reduces the number of crib friendly cards in circulation.
4 lead from 4A combo.

   

Thursday 3:39 AM

All out offense here from this position-we want to get as far as we can over 70 to guard against that potential poor hand we seem to deal ourselves on fourth street way too many times-dealer is only at 53 so not too concerned with the A4 toss

   

Thursday 4:05 AM

I tossed the safer cards A-Q to dealer. This hand starts with 4 points and has a maximum of 14 points. Only 8 cards keep the hand at 4 points (8888,9999). At this moment we have a good lead, I'd like to keep it.

   

Thursday 4:15 AM

What Rosemarie said.

Sky is less smoky today.

   

Thursday 5:03 AM

I went wide as possible. Lead the 4.

   

Thursday 5:16 AM

Echo.

   

Thursday 6:20 AM

Like to keep the touching cards 4-4-5 together here for a chance to break this game open with a 6 or 3 cut. A-Q is a top 10 defensive discard. Rob’s write-up above is very interesting and food for thought. Will lead from power today with a 4.

   

Thursday 6:34 AM

With this relative position and score, I am perfectly content with slowing the game down as much as possible. Let's discard the (A Q) (different suits, of course, with everything being equal). I'm even content with (4 Q) as my second choice, but why not give myself a better chance at a cut that will improve my hand anyway if I can discard such a defensive throw relatively safely, which is made better by the fact that I hold a pair of 4's and another Q in my hand. Lead a 4 and only take relatively safe pegs....This is one of those situations where you may not even want to triple a 4 if he pairs it as your response....Not even sure it is worth risking the very low chance that he might have the "Fourth" Four here!

   

Thursday 7:14 AM

Toss wide A-Q and keep the potential for the double run with a 3 or 6 cut. Briefly considered keeping A-4-5-Q in case a T or face card cut but like the potential killer hand with a 6 cut

   

Thursday 7:14 AM

Considering the potential of a double run, and choosing what not to put into the opponents kitty, there really is one choice...one of the ladies has to go...which leaves the Ace , so back to the lady card ... not going to be the same suit as the ace.

   

Thursday 7:58 AM

Looking at the pegs, seeing these six cards, and after the cut am choosing offense to include the pegging. Will lead a four, would triple if paired, would take the five pegs if dealer responded with a six on my four lead. Would not pair a five if dealer played a five on my four spot. Would advance the count by playing the Queen on most other responses. Am not thinking of a skunk win at this point. Would be doing so if 24 points up. The discard choice would remain the same in any case. Goodbye A-Q!

   

Thursday 2:45 PM

Late night last night, long day for work. So defense here with a fourteen point play still possible. Four pick a four leade. dec

   

Thursday 3:46 PM

We only need 3pts to reach positional hole and opponent is a good way behind. I think we should play Defense here and the most Defensive throw is the unsuited A-Q. A close next best is unsuited 4-Q:

4-4-5-QS: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.33) = -½pt

A-4-5-Q: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.46) = -½pt

Potential:

4-4-5-QS: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/10/14pts with AAA, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, QQ = 18 cuts.

A-4-5-QD: Improves AAA, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 9999 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAA, 3333, 44, 555, 6666 + 14xXs = 30 cuts.

Position:

We're 3pts short of 3rd street positional hole and Dealer is well behind so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think probably A-4-5-QD will peg slightly better than 4-4-5-QS with 3 low cards and a high card.

Summary:

The starting value for each hand is the same (although Schell puts A-Q at 0.13pt better) but 4-4-5-QS has more cuts for improvement and 18 cuts for 8-14pts although A-4-5-QD has 30 cuts for 7-10pts and should peg slightly better. Both hands will have negative delta as we hold another Q and another pair and 15-2pts potential. So I'll
throw the A-QD.

   

Thursday 3:52 PM

At 67-53* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib____Total___W4 %____W5 %
4-4-5-QS___7.13+(-2.37)+(-3.88)=0.88____35.3____73.6
A-4-5-Q*___7.00+(-2.74)+(-3.93)=0.33____34.7____73.5
4-5-Q-Q____8.22+(-2.63)+(-5.51)=0.08____38.6____76.4

Defense______L4 %____L5 %
4-4-5-QS______3.2_____6.4
A-4-5-Q*______3.7_____6.9
4-5-Q-Q_______4.1_____6.3

* unsuited

4-4-5-QS is best for expected averages by 0.55pt. and although 4-5-Q-Q is appreciably best for Win %s4-4-5-QS is slightly lowest for Loss %s so I'll select A-QD to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead a 4 and play Defense:

Lead_____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
4______________________(-1.99)
Q______________________(-2.63)
5______________________(-2.92)