Yesterday's results

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
63-68*  ?
79%
8%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 245
scottcribSplit up the run?
james500
3477 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:41 AM
In order to make a safer discard, I would split up the run yes, Scott. 3 lead from the 3-2-6 combo.

3-4-6-6 with its 6-6-4 five trap interested me also.
horus93
860 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:28 AM
RP is bicuspid at +4/-1: dealer is in marginal position to win in n with good cards, but my own surplus is very small and I need to get past 69, ideally as far as possible.

I decided starting with 8 was worth more than keeping the run with a 6 or 9, and the 24 has a little negative delta with us holding a 3 and a 9. Didn’t actually do a total count with this puzzle, but even if the runs were a tiny bit better for hand value, figured the crib could not be ignored, and 24 is safer on that front than 66 or 69.

Per Liam this is far and away the favorite. Pegging considerations aren’t going to knock it down with those numbers.

Defense to the cut. Would lead the... six of diamonds, I guess, saving the three for an out if dealer holds all mid-cards and threatens to trap the other six or the nine on the second play series, as well as to potentially break up dealer ploys at the end of the first series. The problem with this thinking is that trapping a three is one of those ploys, but my sense is that this is not enough of a risk to outweigh the other considerations in keeping the three. May well be wrong there though.
mfetchCT425
1179 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:38 AM
I think we have to keep the points today to ensure we get to out 3rd street position. 2-4 a bit less dangerous with us holding one of the 3s and a 9.
mfetchCT425 says: Should say “our” above.
SallyAnn3 says: Congrats on 3/4 on Sunday in ACC, MIke! Nice to see you coming around again :)
JQT
3713 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:46 AM
Even if our Crib, bust up the Run with Toss (2 3). As Pone, let's lead a 6 Card from the 18-Point wonder.
JQT says: "But you broke up a RUN, which could have become a Double Run, which is worth Eight Points!" Yes, but I ALREADY HAVE EIGHT POINTS and a much safer Discard Choice. "Yes, but....."
Gougie00
5271 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:56 AM
Another pregnant 3s problem. My crib, the 66 is going in. Your crib, how about 24? Lead a 6.
jmudge
545 votes

Joined: July 2020

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:22 AM
Not this time!
scottcrib
1182 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:38 AM
This is an easy one today. Thanks for your comments.
SallyAnn3 says: Congrats on HM last night in ACC, Scott!
dec
5891 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:43 AM
I went thru pegging scenarios with 2-3-6-6, Naw I will keep the points albeit the 3 6 9 inprobilities.dec
dec says: grammar and spelling (imp...) mistakes today oh my where's the commish. dec
SallyAnn3 says: She is sitting here stilllll shaking her head as to how I could outpeg you 28-12 and stillllll lose the game. You had the cuts, though. I dropped from second to 8th lol. Anyway, Congrats on SILVER last night in ACC, Dan :)
Jazzselke says: Dan #1 was cruel to me as well keeping me at 11 points.
Eolus619 says: Sally..when THAT happens ..my NYC born grandmother would say..Well dec is cooking with gas on all four burners now! Congrats dec
dec says: Some tournaments you get the easy point keepers and discard decisions. I noticed that pegging difference, but I kept my easy dealt hands. Dan it was more the same no brainers. dec
Eolus619
894 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:07 AM
What I appreciate about this puzzle is right out the Ras 101 decision methodology. The first question to ask is what do the pegs tell you. Horus lays it out above or another way is to extrapolate ..99*-110..so…we need to get on to 3rd street and do so with a toss across the board that is not too self destructive.
Eolus619 says: A BTW..Ras posted late yesterday..we may have to pitch in and buy him a watch..he is keeping some odd hours…and with keep A-4-5-6 getting pegging praises from so many elite players..what a lesson it is ( see Hal) in how difficult it is ,as Pone, to earn pegging points. One of the best pegging hands available & it can’t break three points and the dealer averages 3.5…
Jazzselke
2283 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:14 AM
No real defensive throw available without breaking up our hand. So 24 it is. Hit a rare 18 hand.
wasa
2596 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:56 AM
3-6-9... nice cut! Not tossing 2-3. Didn't want to toss 6-9, although I did ponder that (it was my second choice)
MiketheExpert
671 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Tuesday 9:13 AM
100% with the crowd today. Keeping 8 pts is no contest here. With the 6 cut, we are in terrific shape providing that dealer doesn't have a hand of equivalent strength.
winesteward48
433 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Tuesday 9:34 AM
What I nice cut! As said before, not too worried discarding 2-4 with the 3 in our hand and the 9s.
Ras2829
4714 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 10:41 AM
As n/d at hole 63, need to reach 3rd street CPZ (69-73). The lowest scoring discards among these six cards are 4/9 and 2/9. Not interested in retaining less than six points and dealer is short of 3rd Street CPZ by one hole. Pegs, these six cards, and the starter card all echo in unison. Lead the 6D, if dealer has a six spot, the card on the deck will motivate pairing. Often in this game, a good decision is rewarded. The 6 is one of those which gives us a cool 18 points. There are only four hands which score 18 without the right Jack or a flush: 2-2-3-4-4, A-7-7-7-8, 3-6-6-6-9,????? What might the one in question be? It matters not which strategy is chosen (defense or offense, holding 3-6-6-9 has the edge.
Jazzselke says: 3-3-3-6-6
Eolus619 says: Ras...I think it is 3-3-3-6...6 I have also miscounted this..hopefully never again
Eolus619 says: jazz beat me to it!!!
Ras2829 says: Thanks for the quick responses. Very helpful to many on this site and those who re in the bleachers. Ah yes - there are 5 15-2's (10 pts), a pair for two, and a triple for six. Have observed it counted from 12-24. So, there is quite a range among the miscounts.
Ras2829 says: In pegging, would pair a six and pair a nine if played on my opening 6D. If none of that happens get rid of that lone trey as looks like 6/9 are safe cards to hold.
Inushtuk1
1037 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 11:44 AM
Had the pregnant 3's been 2-3-4-6-9-9 I would have kept 2-3-4-6(9-9). But I can remember Ras saying with this hand of pregnant 3's, if you can start with at least 8 points, keep the 3's', 6's, and 9's. And that definitely puts me in the next zone as Dealer.

With my 18 point barnburner, I will lead the 6d and play off, unless of course s/he pairs it.
Coeurdelion
5172 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Tuesday 1:32 PM
I'll compare 3-6-6-9 (2-4), 2-3-4-6 (6-9) and 2-3-4-9 (6-6):

3-6-6-9: 8pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.33) = 2¾pts

2-3-4-6: 5pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.26) = -1¼pts

2-3-4-9: 5pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 7.08) = -1¾pts

Potential:

3-6-6-9: Improves with 333, 66, 999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 14/18pts with all cuts.

2-3-4-6: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 66, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/11/12pts with 222, 333, 444, 5555, 66, 999 = 18 cuts.

2-3-4-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 66, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 66, 999 = 18 cuts.

Position:

We only need 7pts to reach 3rd street positional hole while Dealer is 2pts short of it so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

2-3-4-6 is a good pegging hand with 3 low cards and a middle card plus a 3-card magic eleven. So I think it will beg best playing Offense.

Summary:

3-6-6-9 is best for starting value by 4pts over 2-3-4-6 but the latter has guaranteed improvement and 18 cuts for 9-12pts compared with 8 cuts for 14/18pts with 3-6-6-9. Also it should peg much better so I'll throw a 6-9.
HalscribCLX
4889 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 1:43 PM
At 63-68* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Dlr's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total_____W4 %____W5 %
3-6-6-9____9.22+(-2.67)+(-4.72)= 1.83____26.2____41.2
2-3-4-6____8.37+(-2.59)+(-5.82)=(-0.04)___27.1____37.7
2-3-6-6____6.93+(-2.74)+(-4.25)=(-0.06)___19.2____36.4

Defense________L4 %____L5 %
3-6-6-9_________37.0____43.1
2-3-4-6_________44.2____48.3
2-3-6-6_________35.7____49.2

3-6-6-9 is best for expected averages by 1.87pts over 2-3-4-6 and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 2-4 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll lead a 6 and play Defense:

Lead_____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
6______________________(-2.03)
3______________________(-2.15)
9______________________(-2.21)