Yesterday's results

*** This hand was suggested by Jazzselke
108-106*  ?
31%
29%
28%
5%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 279
Inushtuk1
1544 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Friday 3:09 AM
A combination of offense and defense holding the triple nickels. Leading the 4.
Inushtuk1 says: the safest lead is the 4. Not likly he will pair it but folks like to make the count 11 with a 7. And Dealer may very well keep a double Run of X-Cards. that's what happened in my first 2 play outs putting me at 119 and 120 respectively and winning handily with Dealer's pegging advantage the following hand. In both cases the (Q-9) held Dealer short.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inustuk1: Like your thinking. Difficult to find others with similar thoughts.
Inushtuk1 says: I won 6 of 7 play outs playing it this way. I was going to try the same with A-4-4-X, but it didn't seem fair, as they did not get the cut today, and the Crib Pro app will continue to cut the 3. So where would the Dealer have to be before you tossed the (5-9) with this configuration? Thanks for your reply and kind words.
Sgt Pegger says: Looks to me that the crowd is beginning to sway this way! I also like the offense/defense options with this hold.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Hardly ever would toss the 5-9 or 5 with anything. Suppose if needed ten points counting first at hole 111. would hold A-4-4-X.
zeke76
1453 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Friday 3:35 AM
I want the chance for the double run and the toss is safe.
Jason19 says: Agree.
Inushtuk1 says: Good morning gents. The A-4-4-5 improves on all cuts but (8888). 4-4-5-X misses with the (8888,9999) plus (9-Q) lower Crib average than (A-9). That's my story anyway.
Gougie00
5790 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Friday 4:00 AM
Guessed wrong. Hoping for a face and pegging enough to go out.
dec
6435 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Friday 4:07 AM
Do not get that eight or nine cut and we should be able to improvise to at least get close unless we get a game cut. dec
horus93
1326 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Friday 4:29 AM
Not a time for half measures; the more conservative picks are not particularly good peggers either. Inushtuk is right about the 7 to a four lead, actually a move I avoid because leading from a pair of fours is so dang common. I'd rather play an 8 or a 9 to a four lead on defense than a 7 in spite of what pure odds would tell you. (ofc would play a 7 over a X). Anyway, I'd rather be trying to peg out from 119* or 120* than 116* or 117*, wouldn't you? Checking the numbers on Liam I think it's pretty strongly in favor of this way. Shame about the cut.
horus93 says: This will score 8+ 67% of the time, A445 will only do so 57% of the time and 445Q even worse. It'll score 10+ 43.5% of the time, compare that to 8.7% for A445 or 17.4% for 445Q. Stark numbers. What about the 59? How likely is it that it will cause dealer to count out? First off consider that we can actually go out altogether with this hold, much more likely to do so with this than going another way. Second, 59 will give up a crib of 6 or less over 60% of the time, a typical crib being 4-5 points. So you will get away with 59 quite often anyway, especially since dealer is going to be pegging conservatively.
Inushtuk1 says: Good points horus93. I do try to avoid the 7 on a 9 lead as well; but if all I have is 6-7-7-8, I probably would play the 7 as the response. But not *today*, as I see a 3 on deck. If it hadn't been there, I think I would have dumped my 7.
Ras2829 says: Hi horus93: Your 5-9 assessment of "a typical crib being 4-5 points" is way off. Have checked 4 different discard tables and all show 5-9 to opponent with an average of more than 6 points. Of course, when averaging more than six points that means many are more than six. Sounds like you just create the numbers to support your choice. I have discarded 5-9 in live play to opponent 170 times (sure would like to have 1,000 samples). Divide total points by number of times discarded and average is 6.065, slightly less than other discard tables. You can go ahead and pray for one of those two-point cribs. The 5-9 produces a 2-point crib on that side of the board 9.032%. Could it be?
MiketheExpert says: I'm predicting 5 points myself after the cut of the 3, lol. Whole lots of "iffy" and "chancy" things here...Lots of chances for regrets as well :-)
kal79
74 votes

Joined: April 2024

 
 
 
Friday 5:13 AM
Not the cut I wanted to see…I’d have a little more heartache if it were a 6. Not sure we have much of a choice here but to keep the most points. We must get to count out position at worst; if we can get to 117* or 118* next hand with our opponent scoring poorly this hand, we would be in good position. That being said, how do we best guarantee ourselves an above average hand on this deal? I think the answer is to keep the 6, throw oil and water (5-9) to the crib, and hope for an X cut. I feel just a bit more confident with my discard given I know where one of the aces is.
kal79 says: If I were to choose defense here, I’d toss 9-Q. Good balk and keeps the A-4 intact in the hand to shoot for an easy 15-2. An upside of this one is keeping the double run chances alive.
SallyAnn3
936 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Friday 5:17 AM
Went for the face cut...sigh
mfetchCT425
1439 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Friday 5:43 AM
Went aggressive with opponent only 15 away. Looking for an A, 4, or any face for the cut. Missing the cut, I’ll lead the Q and see if I can peg.
Jazzselke
2625 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Friday 5:53 AM
Too many cuts for 10 or 12 to pass up this hand. 5,6 or 7 yield 8. Throwing the 59 is the cost for the calculated risk.
Eolus619 says: your puzzle today..i hope this is not game five in the finals for the Intergalactic Cribbage Championship ..or a win needed to earn LifeMaster One Star
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Bruce. What's the entry fee for the above tourney?
arthurk
87 votes

Joined: January 2024

 
 
 
Friday 6:15 AM
I'm a newbie with newbie logic... But I am reluctant to throw a 5 here as pone with the dealer so close. The 49 throw felt safe. In retrospect and surely having seen the cut card, the 445Q hold is probably what now seems most appealing... Although I see even that is in the minority! Going to chug along with my Ras videos!
SallyAnn3 says: Welcome :) Most of us are here to learn from each other. There is never a "right" answer, just a right or wrong cut :)
MiketheExpert
1180 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Friday 6:27 AM
Starting with the 6 and hoping to cut 10 or 12. 106 for dealer is too far advanced for me to try and get cut, so I am throwing (5 9) and hoping I can get out or very close. The (5 9) is the least risky of all discards containing a 5, and if dealer has a weak hand, there is a fair chance he still may not make it out with this crib throw. So let's try and peg points without fear, especially after the 3 cut. Well, we still would have only had 8 had I thrown the (9 Q) instead, admittedly I would like my chances to see another deal by comparison.
MiketheExpert says: *get cut* lol --- meant to say get cute above.
MiketheExpert says: Still leading from the pair of 4's I believe is the best path on offense.
MiketheExpert says: I could see dealer risking the pair if he/she has a weak hand, and he may try to squeeze in those extra points to try and get out on the deal rather than risk falling short.
MiketheExpert says: Main problem I have with (A 4 4 5) There are still (2222,7777,8888,999), 15/46 cuts or about 1/3 which will leave our hand only at 4 points, and despite what the pegging numbers may say, I don't believe with dealer's attitude or propensity to be defensive in this situation, that pegging will outperform with this hand by a significant enough margin. I do like the fact, however, that the (9 Q) will score 2 points or under in dealer crib over 40% of the time, so we do have quite good odds of sending to another deal if we are short...The 104-106 range is the "toughest" call to make I'd say - but as I've stated in the past, I'm on the pessimistic side as it comes to pegging, so even with an 8-point hold, I'd like to peg at least 2, which seems to be no better than a 50-50 proposition with any of these keeps.
MiketheExpert says: Would dealer pair our 4 lead most of the time if they could? The answer is no for sure, but yet still I will lead a 4 from the pair anyway. If dealer has a very "close" hand (perhaps 6-7 points), he/she may very well decide that taking a couple of pegs with some risk could be needed. Or even more likely, they may have been forced to keep a somewhat "dangerous" hand so as not to WEAKEN their hand too much, so as crazy as it sounds, pairing the lead may be the SAFEST or %-play to make than another response. (I don't think this will be limited to non-experienced players either). Their issue is that I only need an average score to end up in good peg-out position, so rather than end up 2 or 3 holes short at the end of this deal - I'm betting there could be large minority that could be goaded into taking an "unsound" risk on the pegging that may end up working in my favor. It's difficult to come up with a "calculation", admittedly, as to why this may be the case.
fentesk
1261 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Friday 7:02 AM
In general I'm probably overly defensive, but today I couldn't convince myself to go with a defense motivated toss. If dealer is held below 15, I would still assume I have to peg out before they show next hand, which means I want to be at least 10 pegs down the board.

I don't see a better hand to get within 10 as there aren't great peggers out there. Not thrilled with a 5 to opponent's crib, but I need points and believe this gets me the most cuts to get close.
Ras2829
5214 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Friday 9:41 AM
If choosing offense to include the pegging, holding A-4-4-5 has a sizeable advantage. Combined values (+pegs, hand score, minus crib score) give this arrangement the edge by .75 of a point. Considered only discards of 9-Q and A-9. There are only six discards of the 91 that score 0-2 in excess of 40%. The Q-9 scores 0-2 points 42.224%. What might the other five be? Choosing offense will lead the Ace, keeping 4-4-5 intact. The four spot might be as good. Dealer needing 15 to win and with first count next deal, is not going to pair the opening lead. So why not get rid of the lone Ace? Since the trey starter card gives n/d 8 points 3-4 pegs would be highly beneficial. Holding 4-4-5 provides best chance to do that. The 3 on the deck seems to be of no benefit to 9-Q discard.
Ras2829 says: No need to turn loose a five to hold 6 points with dealer at hole 106. The 5-9 averages 6.065 points, works really nice with the 10-J dealer discard, with J-Q and 10-J highly favored among the X-pointers, and scores 8 or more points 26.02%.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. How far up the board would Dealer have to be before you turned loose that 5 with us at 108? Thanks and thanks for the kind words above.
Ras2829 says: N/d pegs will often not break 2.0. In this case n//d retains 4 cards of high pegging value - none other. So, 2+ pegs can be expected. If leading the four-spot, drop the lone Ace as second card played.
Inushtuk1 says: Why drop the Ace next? Because that's our most trappable card?
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: N/d holding A with no 2-3 is likely to give up points if retaining as "most trappable card. And n/d needs some pegs (3-4 would be ideal), much better to be holding 4-5 than A-4 or A-5 at end of pegging sequence or going into the next if shut out the first round.
Sgt Pegger
332 votes

Joined: July 2017

 
 
 
Friday 10:08 AM
I'm runnin with Ras today! The only card that does help this hold is an 8. Granted some of the other cards give us little more than 2 points, but the upside of this hold is the pegging potential. Plus, let's face it, the 9,Q are not likely to boost the pone's crib if it all. Game time call for the lead of an ace or a 4.
wasa
3073 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Friday 10:18 AM
Looks like I'm "wrong" here, but playing to go out this hand. The 5-9 toss has the highest probability of me winning (according to C. Liam Brown I have a 43.5% chance of having a hand worth 10 points or more).
Assman
41 votes

Joined: May 2024

 
 
 
Friday 10:31 AM
I decided to go full defense and give pone A-Q. I felt like I had no chance to win going offense and my only hope was to hang on and hope to win on the next hand. Crucial to that is preventing the opponent from winning on this hand, at all costs. I’ll lead with the four and hope for the best.
Ras2829 says: Hi Assman: If you "go full defense" 9-Q is much better choice than A-Q even when holding 4-4.
Assman says: I see that now. 9-Q gives the opponent's crib 4.11 on average while A-Q yields and average of 4.33 (Schell). I didn't realize that so I appreciate you brining it my attention. Thank you, Ras. I love these end game hands.
Coeurdelion
5646 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Friday 2:16 PM
We need 13pts to go out and A-4-4-5 gives us a chance for 14pts with 6666 and it has a good balking discard in 9-Q so I'll go with this.
HalscribCLX
5371 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Friday 2:16 PM
At 108-106* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___Win %___Loss %
A-4-4-5____6.74+2.35+(-4.08)=5.01____24.3____43.8
4-4-5-Q____7.13+1.57+(-4.41)=4.29____18.2____44.5
A-4S-5-Q___7.09+1.39+(-4.49)=3.99____13.5____49.9
A-4-4-Q____8.57+1.48+(-6.18)=3.87____27.1____57.3

A-4-4-5 is best for expected averages by 0.72pt. and it is second best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select the 9-Q to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead a 4 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Points
4______________________2.16
A______________________1.81
5______________________1.37
MiketheExpert says: 2.35 pegs for as pone?? That seems pretty convenient. Hmmm... I wonder if they must be calculating the 4,5,and 6 responses to our 4 lead also.
MiketheExpert says: And the 3 as well I guess :)
RubyTuesday
957 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Friday 2:22 PM
I wanted the chance of a high score, even if it was a slim chance.