Yesterday's results

*** This hand was suggested by Eolus619
96*-88  ?
26%
26%
21%
21%
20%
20%
19%
19%
9%
9%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 263
Eolus619It appears to me there are four viable discards As-7h...4d-Qd...7h-7d...9d-Qd...and your 1st decision is...are going wasa ..or not?
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (5976 votes)

Friday 4:02 AM
A favorable cut gives me 14. No magic today. Lead the 7. If the dealer has middle cards, no choice but to engage the pegging.
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2067 votes)

Friday 4:21 AM
I decided to hold all my points in the hand and toss what doesn't work. There are two magic elevens.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6625 votes)

Friday 5:30 AM
We need more of an offensive push here so I am going to treat the crib as an extension of the main hand. One eleven count could work for some defense. An ace of a middle card cut would be real special. dec
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2739 votes)

Friday 5:31 AM
Many ways to hold 4 points. I will opt to play the crib with the strongest throw available. I feel the flush is too weak, creating too much negative data with an A7 throw.
MarktheShark

Joined: January 2024 (305 votes)

Friday 5:56 AM
Dangerous. We are both in position, but, if we cannot score well on this deal, Pone could increase his lead. 7-7 or 9-Q? If the cut is not good, will need to defend.
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (235 votes)

Friday 6:25 AM
Throwing the pair into the crib.
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4328 votes)

Friday 6:27 AM
This gets me a couple cuts at a dozen.
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3218 votes)

Friday 6:48 AM
Hmmm I might be wrong today, but the flush stood out to me. My second choice would be to toss the 4-Q, keeping the A-7-7 combo, and then the 9 as it goes with the 7s.

Not a fan of the A-4-9-Q because it would be hard for the 9 to work with the Q - it just doesn't fit the hand. Would be interested what HAL tells me today
Eolus619 says: wasa..Here is the link to what Hal said in 2006. FWIW you and Colvert made the same FLUSH choice http://www.cribbageforum.com/Ask2006_07a.htm
wasa says: Hi Eolus. Thanks for sharing! Looks like the experts are totally not in agreement!
mrob2199

Joined: February 2009 (1550 votes)

Friday 7:29 AM
This hold provides us with more different cuts to help either the hand or the crib-I also like the pegging flexibility of the hand-would match any Q or 4 to potentially trade 4 for 6
Inushtuk1

Joined: July 2016 (1687 votes)

Friday 7:36 AM
The flush is weak, but does have a better Magic Eleven. But too much negative delta in the Crib. The (7-7) is only a one star toss. But it's an exception to the rule. It's either the highest, or second highest of the one star pairs. It will score just two points a little over 22% of the time. But scores 8 or more over 43% of the time. If we are holding two 7's, Pone's 6-8, or 8-9 often don't work in the hand, and they will be tossed more often than not. So let's not chase that 8 cut by holding 7-7-9. And if the 8 is the cut, don't kick yourself because you missed the 12 point Double Run. You've got half that anyway in the Crib, and with just a little luck you'll have that 12 points in the Crib. And look at that (6-8) toss from Pone I mentioned earlier. Now you've got 24 in the Crib. Besides; kicking yourself is hard to do. A-4-7-7 would be my second choice followed very closely by the flush. More pegging flexibility with the top choice as well.
Inushtuk1 says: With only 6 known points, and an average of 6 in the Crib, I will play all out Offese after seeing the cut. Will gladly pair a Q, or a 9 lead. More than willing to give up 6 in order to get 4. Even the 4 lead I will pair, although I have no follow up for pegs. And the Q goes on any face card lead. Willing to give up 3 to get 2.
Inushtuk1 says: Oh I just noticed that Pone could have led the 4 from the likes of 4-4-J-Q. So the pegging could go thus: 4-(4)-4(8-2)-4(12-6)-Q(22)-GO-9(31-2). So even the pairing of the 4 lead might get me 4 points.
Eolus619 says: Mike ..as to pegging…a copy and paste from Hal’s explanation today in the link I posted.. “ And the A-4-9-Q has both offensive and defensive pegging potential, which I can throttle based on clues such as the starter and pone's first couple of cards. ”
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4323 votes)

Friday 8:00 AM
I'm with Montréal Mike (and others) today! 🍁
Inushtuk1 says: Hi John. after listening to Trump's taunts; who knows? we may both share the same citizenship one day.
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4159 votes)

Friday 8:58 AM
It's a shame I had to break the A-4 combo, but I reckon that 4+? points > 2+2 points.

9-7 sixteen if a Q/K is lead.
Eolus619

Joined: June 2020 (1568 votes)

Friday 9:01 AM
Thanks to all for your comments. I picked this puzzle out of the "Ask the expert" archives from 2006. The expert comments are varied and insightful.The link is worth the read. We will see if Hal...18 years later ...makes the same choice.

http://www.cribbageforum.com/Ask2006_07a.htm
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Bruce. It likely will make the same selection. But then again, HalscribCLX may not be the same iteration of the program as it was in July 2006.
scottcrib says: Hey Bruce, thanks for the thought-provoking puzzle today. The type of player I'm facing (aggressive/conservative/etc.) would help determine my throw. Also, how quickly did they toss cards to the crib? How did they react when the cut card was turned? Etc.
Eolus619 says: hi scott…great reminder …this capability you describe above really is valuable to help move up the win %..a player’s awareness comes from experience which leads to consistently “ picking up the tells” ..a worthy goal for those who don’t have it..me included ❗️❗️
Eolus619 says: and Scott..again.after a .re read of the link ..have copied and pasted a comment from Schell that supports your insight..” I'm not sure how I'd play this over the board. It might depend on my opponent. Against a conservative player, I'd probably go for the defensive approach (4 7 9 Q) and hope she falls short on her three counts, a real possibility if she breaks up her hand to avoid sending me a loose toss when I'm already at 96*. Against a more aggressive player, I might try A-4-9-Q, hoping to catch some mid-cards in the crib and peg a little, to to maximize my front-end chances.”
dec says: I read that column. Looks like I might be in with Ras and Halscrib. But I know all the commenters and it depended on the opponent noted style of play. So 7-7-9-Q got a few mentions. dec
Sgt Pegger

Joined: July 2017 (505 votes)

Friday 10:16 AM
Lonely boy today. Got the lead and simply want to keep it that way. Got at least 2 points coming back from the crib. Not sure how far down the board I can peg but overall, I should be in great shape for the next hand to get me into hole 121!
Eolus619 says: Morning..first TY for your TD work on ecrib..and in case you missed it above here is the “ask the expert” link explaining rational for various choices that were made http://www.cribbageforum.com/Ask2006_07a.htm
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1101 votes)

Friday 11:02 AM
7 7 to my crib today. Blame the discard tables.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5531 votes)

Friday 1:15 PM
At 96*-88 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W2 %____W3 %
A-4-9-Q____4.26+2.83+5.82=12.91____30.7____53.6
A-4-7-7____6.35+3.00+3.05=12.40____25.9____50.9
4-7D-9-Q___5.89+2.93+3.52=12.34____26.5____50.5
7-7-9-Q____3.78+2.61+5.42=11.81____24.7____50.3
A-7-7-9____5.96+2.39+3.42=11.77____26.9____53.0

Offense______L2 %____L3 %
A-4-9-Q_______13.4____38.3
A-4-7-7_______13.6____40.9
4-7D-9-Q______14.1____41.2
7-7-9-Q_______12.5____41.2
A-7-7-9_______11.7____38.7

A-4-9-Q is best for expected averages by 0.51pt. and is slightly best over A-7-7-9 for Win/Loss %s so I'll select the 7-7 to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Eolus619 says: Hal....still sticking with his 2006 choice!!!
guideontheside

Joined: July 2020 (529 votes)

Friday 8:23 PM
Late to the game, so probably no one will see my comments, but . .. any way you hold it, it's 4 points, so what will give me the best crib? 7-7
Djgoat

Joined: December 2023 (117 votes)

Friday 8:51 PM
There are a lot of options here; toss A, 4, keep the flush or this way where I decided just to keep the 4 points I was dealt and hope for some cut help which didn't come.