Yesterday's results

*** This hand was suggested by MiketheExpert
0-0*  ?
Total votes: 251
3715 votes

Joined: April 2011

Friday 3:27 AM
I’ll keep four points this way with the defensive 6-K to opponents crib. Not sure I like middle one, little one (2-8) discard.
5954 votes

Joined: April 2008

Friday 3:45 AM
So, it's how you play the minimal hands. Is it worth discarding 2-8 to go for nine-ten points? Survive the first hand of the game. Lead the two muddle the pegging. dec
537 votes

Joined: June 2020

Friday 3:48 AM
Keeping a 3 Card 15 and a 2 card 15 rather than a pair of 2 Card 15s with a balk to the Crib as well
Eolus619 says: Mark…nice to see you post!,,
919 votes

Joined: December 2017

Friday 4:31 AM
Just as I often play more offensively than most as starting dealer, I also like to play defense as starting pone sometimes, depending on the cards. Dang near half of my games end up with the starting dealer on offense due to bad cards + balks + playing away on both sides and starting pone playing a defensive game, so if the cards are mediocre like this, I definitely have dealer’s crib and pegging in mind.

Today we can have our cake and eat it too by tossing 6K, which leaves a hand that’s just as good for the show as 56TK (28). My gut was surprised at this, although it is what I would have done in a real game anyway because I’d have figured the count would be close and better defensive pegging + balk was worth more than the gap in hand value. But this turns out to be an equal counting hand anyway, so it’s certainly the right way to go.

56TK is a crappy defensive hand for pone since the bad 11 frequently leads you to give up a 31 or even get trapped in a run with the 56. The only way to avoid these eventualities is often to either lead the five, or pair dealer’s five played to your x, and these are obviously not the most defensive plays and have risks of their own, so a lot of the time you’re hosed no matter what you do. 258T has a safe lead in the 2, it’s hard to read, and it has well-spaced card ranks. 56TK is probably the better offensive hand, but not by enough to make it a favorite.

After the lame cut I'd play cautiously, though would not pass up safeish pegs either.
3536 votes

Joined: June 2013

Friday 4:47 AM
I'm in the K-6 group. 2 lead.
1078 votes

Joined: July 2016

Friday 4:50 AM
Same as above. Lead the 10 though.
Eolus619 says: Hey Mike....quite possibly the last thing JQT needs is to have MORE words in his mouth and mind!! have a good weekend
Eolus619 says: and 2-6-7-7...Ace= 8...geez
Eolus619 says: and A-A-6-7...7 = 12..another geeez
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks Bruce. I got them. And thanks for the homework, and the laugh about JQT. Have a great weekend yourself my friend.
5331 votes

Joined: March 2008

Friday 5:01 AM
Starting out with a thud.
3772 votes

Joined: October 2008

Friday 5:14 AM
We start another game as Pone with our First Deal as Non Dealer on this Last Day of March 2023.

We can begin with Four Points, but only if we Kep (2 5 8 T) and Toss (6 K) or Keep (5 6 T K) and Toss (2 8) into the Enemy Crib, or we can start with Two Points and Keep (2 5 6 8) and Toss (T K).

Since all three of these ideas appear to receive help from no more than about one-third of the remaining deck, it would seem to be a good opportunity to Toss (T K) and "spike" the Opponent's Crib.

However, Toss (6 K) does this almost as effectively as Toss (T K), and allows us to begin with TWICE as much! Therefore, let's Keep (2 5 8 T) and Toss (6 K) today.

After the 6 Card Cut, one of those Fifteen Cuts (AAAA, 4444, 666, 9999) that cannot help us, we still have just Four Points. Let's lead the Ten "T" Card and try to peg a few holes.

Merging prior stat's (from when The NYTimes "lost" them in 2022) with those from 2023, my current Wordle Averages of Number of Guesses, Successful Attempts, and Percentages, as of Mar 31, 2023 for JQT are:

1 - 0 ( 0.000%)
2 - 5 ( 1.880%)
3 - 60 (22.556%)
4 -116 (43.609%)
5 - 59 (22.180%)
6 - 23 ( 8.647%)
X - 3 ( 1.128%)
==>266 (263 in 6 or fewer guesses = 99%)

Thus, I have just below a 2% record of getting the solution in Two Guesses, and about a 25% record of getting the solution in Three (or fewer) Guesses, and about a 68% record of getting the solution in Four (or fewer) Guesses, and about a 90% record of getting the solution in Five (or fewer) Guesses, and about a 99% record of SOLVING ad thus getting the solution in Six (or fewer) Guesses, and maintaining my Current Daily Streak, which is 169 WINS in a row!

Wordle 650 4/6 (took the scenic route)

Eolus619 says: John..very well done on the wordle ..have you taken a swing or two with this challenge?…’s becoming popular in circles I move around in..I have not played it though
Eolus619 says: and John..the more I think about your choice..discard and lead …it creates a question for went the defensive route on the discard but took the offensive ( at least seems to me) route with the ten lead..please expand on your thinking..thx
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Bruce. I eagerly await this weekends's homework assignment. And not to put words in John's mouth; but we can discard defensively, and still try to peg offensively.
JQT says: Weekend Homework: If we Toss (6 K) and we Cut a 6 Card, what percentage of the Ninety-One possible Dealer Discards will tally a Crib of a Dozen Points or more? Okay, back to the puzzle: As Pone, our Hand and Discard are 'subtractive' or offset, rather than 'additive' (as is the case when we are the Dealer). Thus, while not appearing to be an Offensive Discard, I tend to look at Toss (6 K) overall as being part of an Offensive Tactic today, given the Hand that it leaves behind. P.S. I've never heard of Worldle; does it rhyme with "Copyright Infringement"? 😆 LOL Let's see: #Worldle #434 1/6 (100%) 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🎉
Eolus619 says: John..good exercise...I think I have them ..plz post your answer on Monday..thx
Andy (muesli64)
2165 votes

Joined: August 2009

Friday 5:27 AM
Throwing 6-K seems automatic?
2654 votes

Joined: November 2014

Friday 5:39 AM
Agree with others. Rather keep the 3-card "15" vs the 2-card "15". Try to balk the crib with 6-K
952 votes

Joined: June 2020

Friday 7:10 AM
Hello all...Homework Friday if you are so inclined...we have had some interesting & challenging end game puzzles recently..winning often involves effective pegging..keeping with theme ...and..the reason their is betting on horse races is people have different opinions
Eolus619 says: and bonus this link and scroll down to Deal about Mike Schell's two tools..the yellow zone and the four in one rule. He uses these to guide fourth street decisions...are they useful to you?
492 votes

Joined: April 2021

Friday 7:24 AM
I am in the alternative camp that likes to keep 5-6 together. Today it gave me an extra 2 points with the cut. However I certainly see the value of keeping 2-5-8-10.
4775 votes

Joined: November 2008

Friday 8:36 AM
The offensive choice as n/d at hand one is to discard 6-k. BTW, as stated above by JQT, the discard is part of that strategy. We often think of balking the crib, playing defense ively wiht the discard. Each element fo the decision is part of the overall strategy. So here discard values, cards retained, their value, and pegging values are all a portion of that offensive strategy. As much as I love the 10-K discard, 2-8, and 6-10 provide greater combined value. So the 10-K choice is actually #4 in this configuration of cards.
Ras2829 says: RAS sorted these discard options out rather quickly in decreasing order of value as: 6-K, 2-8, 6-10, and 10-K with the first three tightly to value and the 10-K a full point off the pace. Occasionally like to check the results of this aging brain against a brain that never ages, that of Hal Mueller's great tutor, Cribbage Prof. The Prof agrees with the listing in that order with a similar spread in combined values What does that prove? It proves that I would never qualify for a Cabinet position in modern government.
Eolus619 says: Ras..conflicted 1] very glad your eye procedure was a success 2] very sad that you and others like you can't make the government job "cut" so to speak
5228 votes

Joined: October 2007

Friday 10:55 AM
I think it's between 2-5-8-10 (6-K) and 5-6-10-K (2-8):

2-5-8-10: 4pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.14) = -¼pt

5-6-10-K: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.94) = -1pt


2-5-8-10: Improves with 222, 3333, 555, 7777, 888, 9999 + 14xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 7/8/10pts with 222, 555, 888, 9999, 101010 = 16 cuts.

5-6-10-K: Improves with 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/9/10pts with 4444, 555, 7777, 101010, KKK = 17 cuts.


As First Pone positional hole is 18pts and therefore I'll play Offense.


2-5-8-10 has more widespread cards so I think 5-6-10-K may peg a little better playing Offense.


2-5-8-10 has a starting value ¾pt higher than 5-6-10-K and it has 3 more cuts for improvement and even though it has 16 cuts for 7-10pts compared with 17 cuts for 5-6-10-K and it should peg better I think 2-5-8-10 will have the advantage. So I'll throw the 6-K.
4946 votes

Joined: February 2008

Friday 11:08 AM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %

Offense______L9 %____L10 %

2-5-8-10 is better for expected averages by 0.30pt. and is slightly lower for Loss %s because of the safer throw whilst they're about even on Win %s. So I'll select the 6-K to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll lead the 10 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
731 votes

Joined: April 2021

Friday 2:26 PM
All the ideas of this have been covered for me today by JQT, Ras, and HAL. I selected the same "balking" discard of (6 K) due to the difference in crib value, though as can be seen the expected hand average is the same in each case. Only considered tosses of (6 K) and (2 8), as the (10 K) just cuts down our hand potential by too much.