Saturday 3:13 AM

Hi Mike , a certain player in your club Dave S. explained to me how this keep could be valuable in all three facets. Ace lead here a few pegging possibilities here. The six could be the bingo cut here. dec

   

Saturday 3:19 AM

Quite a few options to mull over this morning.

I'll keep both "fives", the real one and the A4 combo, so no 4-5 discard for me. A-9c also has some appeal for the hand it leaves behind.

   

Saturday 4:34 AM

We're out of the gates and there are a couple of interesting tosses to weigh up. To immediately maximize points, we could toss (9 9) leaving us with (A 4 5 6) for the play. We could also throw (A 4) leaving us with a (5 6 9 9) which, on the surface, is worth 1 less with a worse scoring hand but the points we lose in the hand are compensated by the crib. There are even some possible outside options like (A 9) or (4 5), all of which score enough points for us to be comfortable reaching the first positional hole on time.

So what's the best pegging hand? For offence, keeping a 5 and 6 for a magic 11 seems nice and a large card like 9 is good for a defensive jump. Since we see two 9's its less likely to be doubled. So immediately I'm leaning towards the hand (5 6 9 9) for good playablility against hands with a lot of tens. The only thing is that we're a little stuck against 7 leads. The main hands we're fighting against are high scoring pone hands, which, ordinarily would be just shy of the first positional hole after the 6 cut. For example (2 6 7 8) now worth 14 points. But then after the play starting 7-9-8-6, they're pretty much there. Does (A 4 5 6) fare much better here? I think so. In general it's easier to avoid runs with a more spread out hand. If the extremities of our hand are A 6 there's no awkward middle value that pone can lead, which was the case when the extremities were 5 9.

So my pick today to keep (A 4 5 6) because we can defend better against those high scoring pone hands which almost make it to the first positional hole. And we retain a magic 11 for offence to help achieve our averages.

   

Saturday 4:50 AM

Once again, we start the game as the Dealer and deal ourselves a RUN with a 5 Card in it, so let's look for ways to get that 5 Card in our Crib!

If I could retain an Equal or Similar Hand without the 5 Card, I will usually send that 5 Card where it can do some good, into the Crib.

But today, we must consider Toss (9 9) and Toss (A 4), in addition to Toss (4 5). The decision is not an easy one.

Keep (A 6 9 9) and Toss (4 5) is almost a reflex in me. Most Cuts that help the 4-5-6 Run will also help (A 6 9 9) and (5 6 9 9). Normally, I would Toss (4 5) and move on, and while I don't like stuffing PAIRS like Toss (9 9) in my Crib, what about Toss (A 4)?

Toss (A 4) has caught my eye, but I will still Toss (4 5), as it is just my style, and nobody has chosen it yet as of 6:45a ET. It's a very interesting arrangement of cards!

This morning, let's go back twenty years, which now seems like another era, and listen to Lucinda Williams singing "Blue" (2001) https://youtu.be/D0_AVhvdpgw

   

Saturday 6:12 AM

I will try 99. Not thrilled about A9 in my crib. Just make sure a 2 isn't the starter.

   

Saturday 6:32 AM

I'm keeping one of the very best pegging hands as dealer without breaking up the run. Bingo cut today!

   

Saturday 6:33 AM

Keeping the run. A-9 not great for my crib, but it gets 3 cards to help it. Nice cut.

   

Saturday 6:37 AM

This is one of thos hands, that depending on how am I feeling on that particular day, I may choose something different on the first hand of the game. Today I opted to toss the pair of 9's, as I felt like keeping my 4-5-6 run intact, magic 11 and double-5 combo, at the cost perhaps of "some" safety on the pegging, as I'd probably have to pair a "4" opening lead...If I was feeling ultra-defensive, I may toss (4 5), with a good crib throw, but I am not enthralled with the prospects for hand improvement, or the lone ace, but may work quite well against a mid-card lead by pone. Or even (A 4), which is a more moderate option, keeping 6 pts and quite decent chances for improvement, but a bit weaker crib throw, and not a "great" defensive hand for pegging....So, depending on my opponent and my mood, I think ALL 3 of these options could be something I would choose to do on the very first hand....

   

Saturday 7:21 AM

Good puzzle Mike! Three legit options. After playing some and reading some I have come to the following conclusion for myself. If sending a five to my own crib doesn’t blow up my keep, I want to try to do it for, to quote Gougie00, pin action. JQT is also a fan of sending fives. Ace-4 just has too many cut misses when compared to other options. Crib is an extension of hand ..thus only a deuce and seven don’t help me. And…Pone has a tendency to throw a Q or K as part of discard since it often yields low scoring cribs for dealer. Five to own crib takes advantage of that. I see I have landed in JQT’s camp. Apparently CHOD can make strange cribbage bed fellows!

   

Saturday 7:56 AM

Splitting points between hand and crib to reduce variance today as I'll follow the goal of defense as first dealer. I think A-6-9-9 will peg more defensively than my next choice 5-6-9-9. I'm not a big fan of larger pairs in my crib, they strike out too often for my liking.

With the cut I'm guaranteed to be sitting at 18+ after this hand no matter what opponent tossed to my crib. I'll stick to my defense plan and hope pone tossed my something like K-9 or K-10 today.

   

Saturday 11:43 AM

   

Saturday 3:50 PM

As First Dealer I'll play Defense. Positional hole is 8pts but I'll try to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 5-6-9-9 will peg well but A-4-5-6 should score well and also peg Defensively.

Summary:

5-6-9-9 is better for starting value by 1pt but A-4-5-6 has more cuts for improvement and 31 for 9-14pts compared to 15 cuts for 9-12pts with 5-6-9-9. Also I think A-4-5-6 should peg better. So I'll throw 9-9 into my crib.

   

Saturday 3:59 PM

At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
5-6-9-9____8.33+(-2.11)+5.43=11.65____40.9____53.3
A-4-5-6____8.85+(-2.11)+4.86=11.60____42.4____52.0
A-6-9-9____7.22+(-1.98)+6.35=11.59____39.8____53.1

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
5-6-9-9________26.6____22.0
A-4-5-6________30.0____23.8
A-6-9-9________25.2____21.7

5-6-9-9 is best for expected averages by 0.05pt and although A-4-5-6 is very slightly best for Win %s 5-6-9-9 is much better than A-4-5-6 for Loss %s and only sightly worse than A-6-9-9 for Loss %s. So I'll select A-4 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.