Yesterday's results

*** This hand was suggested by James500
72*-84  ?
49%
30%
18%
0%
0%
Total votes: 263
mrob2199
1119 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 4:23 AM
Very interesting puzzle today especially in light of the respective positions-we need a good hand -preferably with a flexible defensive pegging hand-especially if we collect a helpful cut-this hold enables us to safely play off any potential pone lead-and especially avoid a potentially disastrous 4 lead if we kept 5667
Goatman
2455 votes

Joined: March 2017

 
 
 
Thursday 4:36 AM
Don’t like the 9Q for my crib so it’s the flush for my.
JQT
3651 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 4:47 AM
Yesterday the score was closer, yet we had a weaker Relative Position; today we are trailing, but since we are Two Points beyond the Third Street Par Hole 70, this enables us to play more aggressively.

And most importantly: The CARDS are good, and appear to almost dictate that we push forward and play Offense!

Toss (9 Q) leaves us with a splendid Double Run, but as an inveterate Cribbage Player, it's almost sad to say that I derive much of my self-worth from my Crib Average.

Thus, in addition to Toss (9 Q), this means either Toss (5 6) or Toss (5 Q), which are nearly equals in our Crib. But I believe we get the most BANG for our BUCK if we retain the PAIR of 6 Cards together, so let's Toss (5 Q).

After the Ace of Hearts Cut, we now still have Six Points in our Hand, with prospects for an Average Crib, which is sad: we were hoping for better.
Eolus619 says: welcome back…the very slight, an unexplainable to scientists, wobble when the earth is spinning on its access has been remedied
Inushtuk1 says: I second that Bruce. Welcome back John. On another note, it's curious that Halscrib did not weigh in on yesterday's puzzle.
MiketheExpert says: I was really hoping for Halscrib's verdict yesterday on a very interesting hand - lots of split voting among the regular cast members!
MiketheExpert says: 95% sure he would pick (A 4 4 6) :-)
scottcrib says: Halscrib posted an entry for yesterday: A446.
MiketheExpert says: I think it was actually Coeurdelion's analysis misposted as Halscrib, seemed to be an exact replica.
Gougie00
5206 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 5:12 AM
What's card that won't help regardless? Trying to prove how smart I am tossing face-5, but it doesn't matter much. Way behind, so attack.

Winter has arrived in northern Massachusetts. It's below freezing, dark and bleak
Eolus619 says: morning…fyi..we heat with nat gas…this November temperature averaged 10 degrees colder than last..the real problem was ..last Nov. NG unit price was $3.45..this November it is $7.46
Donj
615 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Thursday 5:25 AM
GT25Ump says: I went your way as well, though it wasn't easy, the other two options are solid as well. We all love getting a 5 into the crib, but I love a good straight 8 with alot of potential for a bigger hand. I'm down 12 and getting somewhat late in the game. I need to shoot for the bigger outcome to possibly catch up.
dec
5831 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 5:36 AM
Wrong heart was desiring a five here. dec
mfetchCT425
1169 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 5:39 AM
Agree with Rob today. At this position, I like having a flexible pegging hand with the Q to defensively escape any undesirable run sequences. We want to keep pone as far back from 4th street position as possible. The flush should provide good camouflage during the pegging. 5-6 (suited to boot) is a top 5 offensive discard.
Eolus619 says: Mike…I have no illusions about last night ACC GR game and who is the best player. It took me getting crazy good cards for that to happen. Good to have you posting again.
wasa
2533 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Thursday 5:44 AM
It almost always pays to flush. 5-6 a top discard to my crib.
horus93
802 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Thursday 6:35 AM
Double run is the better pegger, but that is outweighed by the value of 5q vs 9q in the crib. We have to risk an offensive strategy with these cards at this rp, aiming to get beyond 86.
horus93 says: And the flush is too defensive imo
SallyAnn3
520 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Thursday 6:42 AM
CONGRATS to eolus/Bruce for his SILVER finish in ACC last night. I believe that is the first time he's placed!
scottcrib says: We've got a new ringer on our hands!
Eolus619 says: Thank you both. I have benefited immensely from CHOD. Thanks to all who have answered my questions over the years. A tip of my hat to Dan Selke who graciously agreed to play and teach me at the beginning of my journey. As to last night , Gougie00’s . cribbage fairy delivered crazy good cards..
Inushtuk1 says: Dan Selke does a great job of teaching us all here.
Jazzselke
2228 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 6:45 AM
Delicate position requiring both offense and defense if possible, as first articulated by Rob. Suited 679Q provides the better defensive versatility than 6679. And 56 a strong discard to our crib.
MiketheExpert says: I agree with your comment on position, so I would call it as "aggressive" or "offensive" a DEFENSE as possible.
MiketheExpert says: Or maybe a "defensive" OFFENSE ...? As long as it leads to the correct choice, :-)
MiketheExpert
613 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 6:49 AM
We need a good scoring result, at the same time we need to be very careful of pone's position, so trying to navigate our need for both points and defense is to me one of the trickiest positions to be in this late in the game. The double run is not good defensively, at the same time throws a balking (9 Q) in our crib, and thus is the least appealing choice to me here. The flush throws a strong (5 6) into the crib, and keeps a better defensive flush, however sacrifices TOO much potential hand strength. I believe the best option is to throw (5 Q) and still keep the nice potential GROWTH of (6 6 7 9), and the opportunistic pegging potential. The only detractor is the risk factor of having to give up pegs in order for a high score here, and certainly the A cut is a major disappointment. I think it is likely we won't be able to score enough combined to support the likes of pone reaching hole 96 or beyond, and so trying to hold him back becomes our "best" of a bad situation strategy.
Eolus619
835 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Thursday 8:26 AM
Board position..yikes…98*-110…i think it will be the flush today with a 5-6 toss which is ranked #3 in value under Ras’s two star ratings. Thought provoking puzzle as it requires an answer that propels current dealer to 98* while holding Pone to under 110. I should have played better earlier.
Eolus619 says: Todays often miscounted hand puzzle is 8—-3-4-5-7= 9
Eolus619 says: incident.y Sally’s counting tool works well today from the keep..3-4-8=2…3-5-7=2…3-4-5=3.& the 8 cut +7=2
scottcrib says: Here's a helpful tip in case you don't know it already: any 5-card straight that contains a 6 is nine points, unless you also have a flush.
Eolus619 says: TY..did not though that!!
Eolus619 says: meant did NOT KNOW...geez
Inushtuk1 says: Hey Scott. Is that the same as when Dan, or someone on here several years ago telling me; any 5-card straight with no Aces or faces is 9?
Jazzselke says: Another way to say it. Remember in this case a 10 is not a face.
Inushtuk1
983 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 9:09 AM
I chose the (5-Q) as well. Perhaps the flush would have been better for defensive pegging. But perhaps I can fake a flush.
winesteward48
376 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 10:04 AM
Every thought expressed here was going through my head. Finally selected the double run for starting points, but, could have easily gone in a different direction depending of the phase of the moon.
Ras2829
4657 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 11:24 AM
The pegs tell me, the cards tell me, the starter card tells me OFFENSE. Holding these four and discarding the 5-Q is the best choice this day. Just keeping the double run would be the second choice. The flush weighs in at #3 in combined values. Think win/loss % will also favor the 5-Q discard though will defer to HalscribCLX on those matters. Would pair a six lead and 15-2 a 9 lead; otherwise, would play off the lead. Will pair along the way if count is high enough to avoid a triple.
Eolus619 says: Ras..In addition to your comments,I can picture JQT rolling his eyes and gently shaking his head about all of us who did not send a five to the crib. Another teaching moment!
Ras2829 says: Hi Eolus619: This is a classic example of how the Big Hand Rule works. There are only 8 discard choices worth a sacrifice of hand score. The two qquestions to be asked are: "Did I stay within sacrifice limits of two points in hand score to discard 5-Q? Yes! Do I have hand remaining of 12 potential points or more? Yes! It's exactly like the desired 2022 responses on a first date! If there are those who would like to know more about the Big Hand Rule, email raswino29@outlook.com.
Obscure
42 votes

Joined: September 2022

 
 
 
Thursday 12:01 PM
Forgot to look at the hand yesterday! Very busy here at school. I'm now finished with two final projects, and beginning on two more, whilst also studying for four final exams. Hoo boy. Anywho, here's CribEDGE's output for today:

Keep: Six of Clubs, Six of Hearts, Seven of Hearts, Nine of Hearts
Toss: Five of Clubs, Queen of Hearts
Worth: 6 / Bonus: 10

That's a nice bonus. The bot really likes this choice. Several good choices today, especially given whether or not the hand you chose is helped by the turn card or not. CribEDGE typically doesn't bank too much on the turn card, as far as I can tell, so I'm not surprised it chose this hand.

I'd feel confident calling this CribEDGE's 7th sensible choice in a row. Maybe could have been the 8th if I hadn't skipped yesterday's hand. Oh well.
MiketheExpert says: Great Obscure, it is a wonderful project, and hopefully the inputs and suggestions of many of our fantastic commenters continue to help with your programming for this great project. Keep it up!! :-)
jfortunes
20 votes

Joined: November 2022

 
 
 
Thursday 1:45 PM
I'm -3; and, opponent +6 to targets.(arguaably) my hand & crib aren't lookin' very helpful. Toss 5,Q.
scottcrib says: Welcome!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi and welcome jfortunes. If your positional holes are the same as many on here (70, and 96); then we are + 2 and opponent is - 2. So that would mean cautious offense (optimal). And I believe that is why James gave us this score. We need to move on down the board, but at the same time we need to hold our opponent short of dealing at 95, 96. And this is why many chose to keep the safer flush. And yet many also took this as an offensive position. That's what makes this game so great. Best wishes Mike.
Inushtuk1 says: And just to make it even more interesting, I now see that Halscrib, on *Defense*, also chooses 6-6-7-9(5-Q). Which is what Ras chose on Offense.
31for14
652 votes

Joined: May 2019

 
 
 
Thursday 1:57 PM
Kept the chance at a kabangi.
Coeurdelion
5104 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Thursday 3:28 PM
I think it's between 6H-7-9-Q (5-6C), 6-6-7-9 (5-Q) and 5-6-6-7 (9-Q):

6H-7-9-Q: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 12½pts

6-6-7-9: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 12½pts

5-6-6-7: 8pts + 3pts (Schell: 2.99) = 11pts

Potential:

6H-7-9-Q: Improves with 2222, 555, 66, 777, 8888, 999, QQQ = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 10/11/12pts with 555, 66, 8888, 999 = 12 cuts. Plus 9 heart cuts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

6-6-7-9: Improves with 2222, 3333, 555, 66, 777, 8888, 999 = 23 cuts = 23/46= 50.0% up to 10/12/16pts with 2222, 555, 66, 8888, 999 = 16 cuts.

5-6-6-7: Improves with 2222, 3333, 4444, 555, 66, 777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/15/16pts with 2222, 4444, 555, 66, 777, 8888, 9999 = 24 cuts.

Position:

We're 2pts past 3rd street positional hole and opponent needs 12pts to reach 4th street positional hole. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think the flush will peg best.

Summary:

6H-7-9-Q and 6-6-7-9 are best for starting value by 1½pts over 5-6-6-7 but 5-6-6-7 has many more cuts for improvement and 24 cuts for 12-16pts. Although 5-6-6-7 is not ideal for Defensive pegging I think it will more than make up for the 1½pts and the 0.19pt for the heart cut potential for the flush. So I'll toss the 9-Q.
HalscribCLX
4829 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:31 PM
At 72*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
6-6-7-9_____8.57+(-2.15)+6.58=13.00____22.3____35.6
5-6-6-7____11.83+(-2.17)+2.77=12.43____21.0____34.9
6H-7-9-Q____7.91+(-2.22)+6.35=12.04____17.8____31.7

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
6-6-7-9________42.8____53.2
5-6-6-7________44.4____54.3
6H-7-9-Q_______44.6____58.6

6-6-7-9 is best for expected averages by 0.57pt. and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 5-Q to discard.

After the AH cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense).
LoneStarPegger
754 votes

Joined: January 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 7:09 PM
Great comments! Turning the 8 of Hearts would have been fun to listen to people justify their choices...