Saturday 3:04 AM

I'll experiment with Q-5Sp.
A case of double run "hopenosis" maybe?

   

Saturday 3:04 AM

It is between 5-Q or 4-4 to our crib. Expected averages are close (hand+crib). Better pegging hand and 5-Q to our crib will make any difference between this hold and 2-5-5-Q

   

Saturday 3:23 AM

Our POSITION is very dire today, with Pone about Ten Holes AHEAD of where we would like Pone to be, and finding us as the Dealer perhaps Five Holes SHORT of where we ought to be!

Only Toss (5 Q) makes sense to me here, although some may try Toss (2 4). We don't want to fall into the Toss (4 4) trap or the Toss (2 Q) pitfall here, either of which promise to only compound our problems.

The Deuce Cut means we are on the Cutting Block and perhaps in real jeopardy of being SKUNKED if we don't catch a good tailwind very soon.

   

Saturday 3:45 AM

If we get a good crib we could be positionally ahead. Four spade lead. dec

   

Saturday 5:39 AM

Yes, 5-Q matched.

   

Saturday 5:41 AM

Hmmmmm...JQT has stated the position problem. So..what to do...5-5, Q-5, 4-4 or 2-4? The highest avg. hand is discard 4-4. The highest avg. crib is discard the 5-5. As Rosemarie said..discarding the Q-5 helps pegging with the kept hand. Whew...the deuce cut doesn’t solve my CPZ problems For sure.

   

Saturday 5:59 AM

Don't normally like to break up fives but we still have an open-ended double run. If later in the game and a serious positional deficit might have to consider the Hail Mary option.

   

Saturday 6:21 AM

I’m pleased to agree with you all, and your reasons for throwing 5S QS.

   

Saturday 8:00 AM

5 in the crib should do more than it would do sitting in my hand.

   

Saturday 9:11 AM

I like the Q5 toss bigly, and it helps it leaves us with a half decent hand.

   

Saturday 10:21 AM

Don't get hopenotized. Checking myself on Liam I still like this choice. A higher min by 2 points is worth more than 0.2 in expected hand+crib averages imo.

   

Saturday 11:49 AM

I alone here missed the long shot flush possibility - what is it 1 / 700 ?

   

Saturday 2:27 PM

Tried to shoot the moon. 8 is good though.

   

Saturday 3:56 PM

Still start with 6...more potential my crib...still a double run possibility.

   

Saturday 4:08 PM

I think it's between 4-5-5-Q (2-4), 2-5-5-Q (4-4), 2-4-4-5 (5-Q) and perhaps 4-4-5-5 (2-Q) is worth looking at:

4-5-5-Q: 6pts + 4½pts (Schell: 4.52) = 10½pts

2-5-5-Q: 6pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = 11¾pts

2-4-4-5: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 10½pts

4-4-5-5: 4pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.52) = 7½pts

Potential:

4-5-5-Q: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 44, 55, 6666 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 10/12/14/16pts with AAAA, 3333, 55, 6666 + 15xXs = 29 cuts.

2-5-5-Q: Improves with 222, 3333, 55, 8888 + 15xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 10/12/14pts with 3333, 55, 8888 + 15xXs = 25 cuts.

2-4-4-5: Improves with 222, 3333, 44, 55, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.4% up to 8/12/14pts with 222, 3333, 44, 55, 6666, 9999 = 19 cuts.

4-4-5-5: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 44, 55, 6666, 7777 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/10/16/24pts with AAAA, 222, 3333, 44, 55, 6666 + 15xXs = 34 cuts.

Position:

We're 4pts short of 2nd street positional hole. Pone is already there plus 1pt but 15pts short of where they would like to be. I'll play cautious offense.

Pegging:

I think 2-4-4-5 will peg best with all low cards and a 3-card magic eleven

Summary:

2-5-5-Q has the best starting vale by 1¼pts over 4-5-5-Q and 2-4-4-5. 4-5-5-Q has fewer cuts for improvement but 29 cuts for 10-16pts while 2-4-4-5 has more cuts for improvement and 19 cuts for 8-14pts. I think these will be close but 2-4-4-5 should peg best so I'll throw the suited 5-Q.

   

Saturday 4:16 PM

At 40*-45 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

______________Our
Offense__Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total___W6 %____W7 %
2-4-4-5D__7.70+3.67+6.44=17.81___37.9____24.0
4-5-5-Q___9.61+3.30+4.23=17.14___36.5____23.6
2-5-5-Q___8.61+3.09+5.43=17.13___36.6____24.5
4-4-5-Q___7.17+3.26+5.32=15.75___31.2____19.6
2-4-4-Q___4.17+2.96+8.52=15.65___32.1____20.6
4-4-5-5___9.30+3.09+3.24=15.63___32.7____20.3

Offense_____L6 %____L7 %
2-4-4-5D_____53.9____56.3
4-5-5-Q______52.3____56.6
2-5-5-Q______51.2____55.9
4-4-5-Q______52.9____61.0
2-4-4-Q______51.8____59.8
4-4-5-5______51.6____59.5

After the 2 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.

2-4-4-5D is best for expected averages by 0.67pt and is slightly best for Win %s. 2-5-5-Q is lowest for Loss %s but even so I'll select the suited 5-Q to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.

   

Saturday 4:20 PM

It's off., off., off. for RAS at all points to consider (looking at peg palcement, deciding retention/discard, and after seeing the starter card. Nothing for me to defend here so will play on the lead. After seeng the starter card, know that I have a minimum of 11 points - so 3-4 pegs would be a real boost. Go for them. The 4-4-5-5 is the hand to play when non-dealer. Only play 4-4-5-5 if the only four points you can find as dealer or when needing a "kller hand" to have a chance for a win. Well, this choice is up to 35% at this time. That means that 65% made some other choice. Coeurdelion, per usual does a great job showing the rationale for this choice and choice of strategy.