Wednesday 3:06 AM

Double Double will get me to 96

   

Wednesday 3:07 AM

To me this is an absolute all out offensive position-gotta get down the board as much as we can for our upcoming deal-the dealer is 40 out so no big worry about the discard of the jacks-actually looking for a picture cut here to give us 14 with a good shot at 2 to 3 more pegging points

   

Wednesday 3:13 AM

More clubs in circulation than spades.

   

Wednesday 3:58 AM

I hate to pass a pair to the crib, especially Js but a double run is a double run.

I'll start the pegging with a deuce.

The 7 show-card helps but not by much.

   

Wednesday 3:59 AM

The scores are the key here position wise. Go and grab situation. Two lead hopeful for a play on situation. dec

   

Wednesday 4:05 AM

Our POSITION screams OFFENSE, and so I'll Keep (A 2 2 3) and Toss (J J).

So many Cuts helps us get a Dozen Points or more (AAA, 22, 333, 9999, TTTT, JJ, QQQQ, KKKK), which meets our positional objective today.

More than HALF of those Cuts in fact shall give us Fourteen Points! Even a Jack Cut would be relatively good here, in spite of the fact that we gave away TWO of them!

After the 7 Card Cut, we have Ten Points, and we'd like to precede this by pegging half a dozen, so let's lead a Deuce from our PAIR and attempt to do so.

   

Wednesday 4:07 AM

Hole 95 here we come....

   

Wednesday 4:51 AM

"And away we go".

   

Wednesday 5:15 AM

Offense, offense, offense.

   

Wednesday 5:58 AM

Never break up a double run. In this case anyway.

   

Wednesday 6:06 AM

Agree with offense all the way here. Any face cut is 14, 9 cut is 12, and also chance for 15 or 16 with the A,2,3 cuts.

   

Wednesday 6:26 AM

Even the Jack would benefit us with the dealer only picking up four points to the pone's 6. Four points in pegging is not completely out of reach.

Lead the 2 of hearts.

   

Wednesday 7:27 AM

As James above has noted, I threw the wrong Jack.

   

Wednesday 8:00 AM

Make sure to lead the 3, not the 2.

   

Wednesday 9:17 AM

Got lucky, and 2 extra points. Better than nothing :)

   

Wednesday 10:44 AM

Right or wrong, the thought was to slow opponent down.

   

Wednesday 12:32 PM

   

Wednesday 3:41 PM

I think it's between the double-run and 2-2-3-JS:

A-2-2-3: 8pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.42) = 1¾pts

2-2-3-JS: 6pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.68) = 1¼pts

Potential:

A-2-2-3: Improves with AAA, 22, 333, 4444, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 12/14/15/16pts with AAA, 22, 333, 9999 + 14xXs = 26 cuts.

2-2-3-JS: Improves with AAA, 22, 333, 4444, 5555, 8888 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 10/12/14pts with AAA, 22, 333, 4444 + 14xXs = 26 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

We need 16pts to reach 4th street positional hole so I'll play Offense for the pegging.

Pegging:

I think both hands will peg well but perhaps A-2-2-3 more so.

Summary:

A-2-2-3 has a ½pt better starting value but 2-2-3-J has the nob potential which reduces this to ¼pt. It also has more cuts for improvement and 26 cuts for 12-16pts compared to 26 cuts for 10-14pts for 2-2-3-JS. Also I think it will peg slightly better. Therefore I'll throw the J-J.

   

Wednesday 3:58 PM

At 80-81* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W2 %___W3 %
A-2-2-3____12.04+1.65+(-6.69)=7.00____4.4____42.1
2-2-3-JS____9.59+1.48+(-4.60)=6.47____2.1____31.5

Offense______L2 %___L3 %
A-2-2-3_______4.5____32.5
2-2-3-JS______1.7____32.1

A-2-2-3 is better for expected averages by 0.53pt and is very much better for Win %s. 2-2-3-JS is appreciably lower for Loss %s because of the safer A-JC but even so I'll select J-J to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead the 2H and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Pts.
2____________________2.15
3____________________1.89
A____________________1.50

   

Wednesday 4:04 PM

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W2 %___W3 %
A-2-2-3____12.04+1.65+(-6.69)=7.00____4.4____42.1
2-2-3-JS____9.59+1.48+(-4.60)=6.47____2.1____31.5
2-2-3-JC____9.61+1.48+(-4.64)=6.45____2.1____31.6

Offense______L2 %___L3 %
A-2-2-3_______4.5____32.5
2-2-3-JS______1.7____32.1
2-2-3-JC______1.7____32.1