Yesterday's results
Total votes: 199 
Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com
thelawnet 156 votes Joined: January 2020 
Sunday 3:32 AM
to continue yesterday's discussion about how the bot calculates our % chance of winning, while it's not clear to me that the Hal bot does it this way, in general there are only 14,641 (121 numbers between 0 and 120 for each player) possible starting positions before each game.
This is a very small number in computational terms, and we could look at actual outcomes e.g. here https://blog.cribbagepro.net/2012/11/cribbagestrategyandboardposition.html where we see that based on millions of *actual* games played, we can know that at 9090, there is a 50/50 chance of either player winning. Indeed at any of the 14,641 possible positions there will be a fixed % chance that we win. And near the end of the game, there will be a significant difference between say 110110 and 109109. For a bot, we could ignore those numbers and instead use 'best possible play', where we calculate the chance of winning based on our play. For example, at 116116 there is a 100% chance of the game ending this deal. At 100100 that is not so, but if we have already calculated that the chances from 116116 are, say 70% pone, 30%, dealer, 0% new deal, the exact winning % for us at 100100 simply becomes a matter of recursing through the possible outcomes, weighted by the chance that they occur, and then using our already calculated win % for each possible score outcome at the end of the deal. Here we might note that if we are playing against humans, then humans make mistakes, so it might be in some ways better for the bot to use the human winning %, for matches between players who win overall (don't look at the results for poor players), in order to determine outcomes. Then when we have a hand like today's A248910, it follows that for each of the 15 possible discards/hands, then each one will have a distribution of outcomes after the deal. For example, if we toss 29 today, then we have at least 4 points, while pone may have any number of points. If play were to proceed 4K8A, then there is some chance the bot plays AA for 7. Overall, there will be for any given toss therefore a table of possible outcomes, together with the likelihood they occur. E.g. 412 occurs 1.6% of the time for the toss 29 If we multiply the frequency of the chance of a given posthand score occurring by our known (calculated above) binary chances of winning or losing from any given position, it follows that we can calculate the exact chance to win or lose with any given toss, providing we peg the same way as the bot. At 00, there should be a relatively straightforward correlation between the difference between our points and pone's points and our winning chance, but clearly as with yesterday as we approach critical score zones, then both players for instance adding 4 points will benefit one player more than another and indeed we might profit by scoring average 8.2 to pone's 10.2 points (2 points) rather than say 12.2 points to 12.2 points (+0 points), in that position is important. I do not think this is particularly important at 00, but some seem to think it is. I have not seen numbers supporting this though?! Anyway, with today's hand we have trash. A4 tends to peg well, i.e. AX4. No 6 though. 489T pegs poorly. So I'm holding A249 and will try to outpeg pone. The cut is interesting  if pone has a 4, he will certainly pair us. However 74% of the time, he was not dealt a 4, so the lead of a 4 looks like a conservative lead and we may get the X back for our 152. If we lead the A then pone probably won't pair, but he may spot the trap and reply with 7,8, etc. So will lead the 4, and then we have 492, 4XA, etc. Hope to get a better hand next time. 
JQT 2842 votes Joined: October 2008 
Sunday 3:33 AM
It's a tossup between Toss (A T) and Toss (8 T) for me this morning.
Holding the RUN in *any* form seems toxic but if forced, I would perhaps consider Toss (A 2) to be the safest. If I feel adventurous, I might try leading the 8 Card, and 'go fishing' for a Trey response. 
Rosemarie44 1598 votes Joined: March 2016 
Sunday 3:38 AM
First hand as pone is usually offense strategy. Start with 3 points and a hand that has more cuts for improvement over 2489 (second choice). 
dec 4885 votes Joined: April 2008 
Sunday 3:38 AM
This to me the most offensive keep with an eleven count in the hand that might influence the pegging. Eight lead here for me. dec 
james500 2505 votes Joined: June 2013 
Sunday 4:33 AM
9 lead?
Maybe: 9(9)5(14)A(15/2)... Or: 9(9)X(19)4(23)5(28)2(30)goA(31/2). 
mfetchCT425 551 votes Joined: February 2009 
Sunday 5:58 AM
Great puzzle by Ras. Quite a few options to consider today with this subpar hand. I decided to keep the ‘5’ in my hand (A4) along with the touching 910. Only the 3 or 7 cut do not help. 
Jazzselke 1480 votes Joined: March 2009 
Sunday 6:07 AM
Tough call today. Do not like 48910, a lead of the 4 can get caught in a 3 card run with the 3 middle cards. Will go with a toss of 28 instead of A2, A4 or 24. 
Gougie00 4283 votes Joined: March 2008 
Sunday 7:03 AM
Kept the 8910, hoping for help. Tossed the A2 because it probably won't go *Boom*. 
horus93 724 votes Joined: December 2017 
Sunday 9:41 AM
Really interesting puzzle today.
I saw 8T as a "goldilocks" between a2 or 24 (probably significantly more likely than 8t to give up a huge crib) on the one hand and at (really bad hand) on the other. But checking myself on discardpro and reading the comments I don't think I was right. I often overestimate the danger of a2 it seems. 
dgergens 589 votes Joined: January 2018 
Sunday 10:03 AM
May not be the popular vote, but the small company is good company. 
cribbagepogo 2976 votes Joined: October 2007 
Sunday 11:09 AM
Agree with Mike F. Not too dangerous and I don't have to type War and Peace to explain. 
joekayak 1089 votes Joined: May 2016 
Sunday 11:44 AM
kept the three points.

Coeurdelion 4202 votes Joined: October 2007 
Sunday 3:02 PM
For a lowscoring hand such as this there are still several options  runs with 48910 (A2), A8910 (24), the pegger A249 (810) and the defensive discard 2489 (A10):
48910: 3pts  5pts (Schell: 5.07) = 2pts A8910: 3pts  5¼pts (Schell: 5.33) = 2¼pts A249: 2pts  5pts (Schell: 5.10) = 3pts 2489: 2pts  4½pts (Schell: 4.48) = 2½pts Potential: 48910: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 38 cuts = 82.6% up to 6/8pts with 7777, 888, 999, 101010 = 13 cuts. A8910: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 6/7/8pts with 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010 = 21 cuts. A249: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 444, 5555, 6666, 888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 91.3% up to 6/8pts with AAA, 222, 3333, 444, 999 = 16 cuts. 2489: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010 = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 5/6/7pts with 222, 3333, 444, 7777, 999, 101010 = 20 cuts. Position: As First Pone I'll play Offense and try to reach 18pts which is unlikely with this hand! Pegging: I think A249 will peg best with three low cards and a high card while 2489 should be next best. Summary: A249 has the lowest starting value but has the most cuts for improvement and 16 cuts for 6/8pts. It also should peg best. So I'll throw the 810. 
HalscribCLX 3971 votes Joined: February 2008 
Sunday 3:45 PM
At 00* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
__________________Our Offense__Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 % 2489___4.46+1.70+(4.26)=1.90____18.7____19.2 A249___4.70+1.93+(4.75)=1.88____20.6____19.7 48910__5.24+1.30+(4.84)=1.70____19.7____19.4 A8910__5.28+1.35+(5.05)=1.58____19.9____19.2 Offense_____L9 %____L10 % 2489______36.9____53.7 A249______38.5____54.1 48910_____38.0____54.0 A8910_____38.4____54.3 2489 is very slightly best for expected averages by 0.02pt over A249. However A249 is slightly better for Win %s but slightly worse for Loss %s. As we're playing Offense I'll select the more Offense oriented keep and select 810 to discard. After the 4 cut I'll lead the 4 and play Offense: Lead_____________Our Pegging Pts. 4______________________2.22 A______________________2.03 9______________________1.88 2______________________1.33 
RubyTuesday 432 votes Joined: January 2019 
Sunday 3:50 PM
I wanted to keep the run, looked at the discard tables and threw A 2 
Ras2829 3741 votes Joined: November 2008 
Sunday 5:55 PM
This hand was from a game with REX and have seen it a few times since in electronic and live play. The three consecutive small cards with high pegging value put holding the A249 up just a hair. If you lack confidence in your pegging game, play the 2489, which has the higher combined value. You can come real close to sorting out pegging value using this simple approach: A5 have high pegging value, 6789 have moderate pegging value, Jack has low pegging value, and 10,Q,K have none. Appreciate the positive comments relative to the quality of the puzzle. It's off., off., off., and lead the 4 keeping A2 intact. 