Wednesday 3:13 AM

I think this is a hand where our best chance of winning is pegging 4 with a completely unreadable hand-my goal is to lead the A,pair an 8 response,play a 7 on a picture response , and try to confuse the dealer into making some bad decisions

Wednesday 3:19 AM

No mistakes. Lead the 4.

Wednesday 3:24 AM

Your hand is most predictable to peg against when it includes a 5 or X. So we ditch the 5. We have to keep 4 pts just in case we hold our opponent to just 1 go. A478 also accomplishes this, but A at this juncture is arguably more dangerous than helpful. This is far more about understanding the play than it is about the discard itself.

Daily Cribbage Scrimmage
Score: 121 to 101
SP: 1830

Discards:
1. JQ
2. 8T 15-10*
3. A2 31*-23
4. AQ 52-34*
5. 2J 67*-49
6. AQ 78-73*
7. 2Q 96*-88

Flip of yesterday's Scrimmage, we get the big hand average of 10.6 today.

Wordle 1,467 4/6

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Arguably the worst possible way to attack today's wordle, but it sorted out well. Done clean for those who like to backtrack.

Wednesday 3:47 AM

Defense. Lead the four leaving the three for 1-1 or 1-2 possibilities. dec

Wednesday 3:48 AM

I'll lead the 4 card. I can score on all replies except for a 6 or 9.

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
25th Jun 2025
🏆Score: 121 to 93
🌋SP: 2020
📅Streak: 9
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/529/3333658/1

1. J-Q
2. 8-10, (10-4?)
3. 2-Q, (A-2?)
4. 7-Q, (not sure)
5. 2-J, (6-8?)
6. A-Q
7. 2-Q
8. 6-Q, (2-4?)

Wednesday 5:32 AM

Wow, I am really on an island here. This hold, interestingly ALSO scores a minimum of 4, so all I need to do is hold the dealer to their 1 go.

Defensive pegging all the way, no connected cards (tho a lot are close).

Wednesday 5:37 AM

Anything but paint helps and, of course, with my luck, I cut a Q but it's more important to peg. I'll lead the 3 and hope for the best.

Wednesday 5:49 AM

I've always liked trying to understand and attempting to solve Cribbage Endgame Puzzles, probably since the 1960s I suppose, and this is a challenging specimen! 🧪 🩺 🧬

We must dodge the early landmines of a nearly 9% occurrence of a Jack Cut, over which we have no control, and then we must prevent the Dealer from pegging any more than the One Hole that will occur with certainty, unless we can out-peg the Dealer and get Four Holes first! Otherwise, our main objective is to seek to defend and cruise out via First Hand Show. Easy enough, or so it seems! 💥

When we consider the '6 choose 2' or fifteen unique discards, we wish to either begin with Four Points, or know that after the Cut Card appears, that we'll end up with at least Four Points a large percentage of the time. The fact is, while we cannot control what we are dealt or what the Cut Card may be in Cribbage, we do have control over both our Discard Decision and our Pegging. 🎲

Once we look at our prospective points, we'll want to carefully choose our best (probably most defensive) pegging hand from among those that meet the first criteria. With all of these objectives in mind, we find the following interesting information:

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The ideas such as: Keep (A 4 5 8) and Toss (3 7), Keep (A 3 5 8) and Toss (4 7), and Keep (A 4 5 7) and Toss (3 8) all begin with ZERO Points, so we'll disregard these ideas;

Keep (A 3 7 8) and Toss (4 5) will fail to attain Four Points after all Sixteen X Card Cuts (TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), yet since those four Jack Cuts would cause us to lose anyway, we actually have a Dozen loser cuts, and that's still way too many losers, so we'll also disregard this idea;

Keep (A 3 4 7) and Toss (5 8) similarly will fail to attain Four Points after Eight Cut Cards (6666, 9999), and that's too many losers as well, so we'll also disregard this idea;

Keep (A 3 4 8) and Toss (5 7) will fail to attain Four Points after Four Cut Cards (9999);

Keep (4 5 7 8) and Toss (A 3) will fail to attain Four Points after Three Cut Cards (AAA);

Keep (A 5 7 8) and Toss (3 4) will fail to attain Four Points after Three Cut Cards (444);

Keep (A 4 7 8) and Toss (3 5) will fail to attain Four Points after Three Cut Cards (555);

Now we're looking at those six final ideas that can ALWAYS deliver us those Four Points or more that we need today:

Keep (A 3 4 5) and Toss (7 8), as well as Keep (A 3 5 7) and Toss (4 8), will never fail to attain Four Points after ANY cut;

Keep (3 5 7 8) and Toss (A 4), Keep (3 4 7 8) and Toss (A 5), Keep (3 4 5 8) and Toss (A 7), and Keep (3 4 5 7) and Toss (A 8) already contain at least Four Points, even before the cut.

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Of those final six ideas, we want to choose the one that will be able to prevent the Dealer from pegging more than the Proverbial One Hole!

(A 3 5 7) seems to be 'spaced out' the best among those final six ideas, so let's Toss (4 8) today; after the Queen Cut, let's lead our Trey from the middle of our bunch. 🍷

Let's look at an example Playout Victory:

(117-119*) (A 3 5 7) (4 8) vs (2 4 7 9) (T J) Q
3 (3) 7 (10) 7 (17-2) 2 (19) 5 (24) 4 (28) A (29-1), 9 (9=1), (120-120).
Pone 4, Dealer 2, Crib 3, (121-120). We WIN!

We'll likely lose such an endgame more than half the time, but until someone crosses that Finish Line, we should stay in the fight!

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Wordle 1,467 3/6

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Wednesday 7:19 AM

In these endgame puzzles, I prefer to imagine that I am playing against the Best Player in the Galaxy. It ain't going to be easy

Wednesday 7:41 AM

I believe this hold has the best potential to win. I will play the 4 first. If they pair it, I will play the 7 next. They will likely play a "get away card" next, and then we might be able to get the 31 with the remaining 2 cards.

Wednesday 8:55 AM

Since crib is out of play not worried about sending the 5. Keeping a hand that can go out and hopefully stop dealer pegging out

Wednesday 9:25 AM

I'm not a religious person but I believe St. Jude is the saint of lost causes. I might start there.

Wednesday 12:17 PM

I preferred enough to go out without holding either the A or 5 for pegging.

I was a bit surprised checking generic win% for non-dealer at this score (unrelated to cards actually dealt). What does your gut tell you the non-dealer win% is at 117-119*?

Orbitals says it's ~22% for non-dealer to win from this score, hopefully we'll see what the bot estimates once the cards are known.

What a difference a point makes, at 117-118*, non-dealer is actually a (very) slight (50.77%) favorite to win.

Wednesday 5:06 PM

I went with 3 4 5 7 because of the guaranteed point count for win if I can stop opponent from pegging out first, but I've only been doing cribbage for a few months. This site is one of the tools I'm using to try to improve! Anyway, it seems like 3 4 7 8 was smarter based on what people are commenting :\ I didn't think of what JQT said about the better spacing of A 3 5 7. I would lead with a 4 from the hand I kept. If I'd kept A 3 5 7, I'd have led 3. If I'd kept 3 4 7 8, I'd have led 4 again I think.

Wednesday 6:20 PM

Ditto.

Wednesday 9:16 PM

Only the 6 or 9 cut keeps me from a pat 4 points, and I like the spread to keep from getting into a run.
With guaranteed 4 points, I'll lead the 3 and play defense to every response. Would like to keep the 7 as my last card played so Dealer doesn't get two "Go's".