Thursday 3:12 AM

Every card under ten helps this dog's breakfast. Hoping for some magic in crib with suited connectors

   

Thursday 3:28 AM

Another learning experience. I tossed 67 and praying for some help.

   

Thursday 3:29 AM

Another RAS puzzle sees the Light of Day 🌞 and here we are with the Dealer Advantage, but with such mediocre cards, I hardly think we can exploit being the First Dealer today. We'll have to "endure" it instead.

It's almost the 'trifecta' of what I have often called the three "Discard Cousins" in Cribbage, these being 3-4, 6-7, and J-Q, but here we finish up the bunch with T-J instead, a very minor transposition into slightly inferior territory. No matter; it will evaluate to be approximately the same.

I have written 📕 a LOT about these "Discard Cousins" over the years on this site, not only because they are so pervasive, but also because so much of what we learn about them applies to BOTH SIDES of the table, whether we're Dealer or Pone! I only hope that this site will make Internet Searches a bit easier, so players can search for terms like "Discard Cousins" on this domain, going back over the previous two decades.

It's very important for newer players to understand that, unless we have four or more matching 👔 SUITS (a FLUSH), we are generally going to IGNORE THE SUITS of our cards. Since we have no FLUSH today, we shall give absolutely NO PREFERENCE to the fact that 6-7 and T-J are SUITED, and 3-4 is NOT.

Only if we decided that the three prospective discards were of EQUAL VALUE would we then finally consider the SUITS. Cribbage Discards either PASS or FAIL candidate status as discards on their own merits, without regard for same-suitedness, as this same-suit quality only adds maybe a few HUNDREDTHS OF A POINT to any decision.

Toss (T J) is slightly weaker than the actual "cousin" of Toss (J Q), and this is primarily due to Pone's tendency to shuttle Kings and Ten Cards into our Crib, but it's nevertheless very close. As Dealer Discards, none of these "Touching" Card Duos will begin with any points in our Crib, but ALL of them have Discard Averages that are very close to equal, or sometimes even better than, most High PAIRS such as Toss (K K), Toss (Q Q), or Toss (T T).

It seems very natural to hold the two Small Cards 3-4 with the two High Cards T-J, and seek some 'Fifteen-Two Action' via the Cut Card, and thus Keep (3 4 T J) and Toss (6 7) looks to be a good way to approach this puzzle. Pone will rarely 'cough up' a 5 Card, but we'll frequently 'catch' an 8 Card 🎱 to 'ignite' a discard such as Toss (6 7), and we'll possibly also get some random help from the Cut Card as well.

On our side of the board, Toss (3 4) has a Crib Value of about 4.91 Points, while Toss (6 7) 'chimes in' nicely at 4.98 Points, while Toss (T J) sits comfortably at around 4.61 Points (Schell, all values). It seems that placing those two Middle Cards into our Crib may give us the "best of 🌍 both 🌎 worlds" in both our Hand and our Crib. But even if the 6-7 duo was NOT suited, it would still be superior to a suited Toss (T J) in Crib Value, as the same-suited status only adds a few HUNDREDTHS of a point to the value of any discard, and if not suited, note that that value of Toss (6 7) exceeds that of Toss (T J) by a few TENTHS of a point!

If we do Toss (6 7) or Toss (3 4) today, we can only reach a Maximum Hand of Seven or Eight Points: after Toss (6 7), we do so after Eight Cuts (2222, 5555), and after Toss (3 4), we do so after just Four Cuts (5555). And yet, after Toss (T J), the Maximum Hand shifts on up only slightly to Nine Points after Four Cuts (5555), and with a weaker Crib.

Let's Toss (6 7) today, and seek some ✨ ACTION somewhere! It's difficult to criticize either Toss (T J), which could allow us to peg more (although we also could get 'jammed up'), or Toss (3 4), which seeks more "action" in the Crib, today. But as the First Dealer of a New Game, I'll play the averages and stick with the prosaic yet mighty Toss (6 7). How else are we ever going to raid all the cash that's been stuffed into that Twenty-Four-Point pickle-scented 🥒 Crib Bonus 💲 Jar?!

After the 9s Cut Card, we now have a gut-wrenching Three Points in our Hand, with prospects however for a somewhat better outcome in our Crib.

Wordle 1,132 4/6 (nice place for that 💋 first kiss)

⬛⬛⬛🟨⬛
⬛🟨🟨⬛⬛
⬛🟩🟩⬛⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

   

Thursday 3:45 AM

   

Thursday 3:49 AM

Highest Crib average of the three touchers candidates. But no Magic Eleven. But on defense, (10-J) leaves 3-4-6-7, and that could lead to some runs for Pone, as JQT alluded to. Perhaps on offense 3-4-6-7(10-J) is best But not here.

   

Thursday 3:49 AM

This will be interesting to see folks’ logics. I thought along Ken’s lines, plus the crib toss does work together even if not great cards.

   

Thursday 4:12 AM

This might be one of my favorite hands as dealer that start with 0 points!

   

Thursday 4:13 AM

Pegging cards and potential for both or either hand. dec

   

Thursday 4:22 AM

No points? Keeping the peggers.

   

Thursday 5:29 AM

Another familiar hand. Something that Red from the Chicago Gang would deal (and out point me). I followed the nursey rhyme cribbage strategey.... "Which two cards are not like the others...." 10-J suited away.

   

Thursday 5:36 AM

I prefer middle cards in my crib vs Xs as I'm not likely to get a 5 from my opponent.

   

Thursday 5:40 AM

Instead of hoping for a good cut card, I will keep these great pegging cards.

   

Thursday 6:04 AM

In the past I would throw 67. But now I feel more cuts and better pegging with 3467. And 10J more likely to get a 9 or Q from our opponent, as opposed to a 5 or 8 with the 67.

   

Thursday 6:33 AM

I'm 50:50 on this one.

Any 2,5,6,7,8 or 9 in the crib makes points with the 6-7 discard, (22/46).
Any Ace,2,3,4,5 or 8 in the crib makes points with the 3-4 discard, (22/46).

2,5 and 8 are common to both lists, but I'll speculate that I'm more likely to receive a 6,7 or 9 from my opponent, (often with an X card, sadly), than an Ace, 3 or 4.

   

Thursday 6:38 AM

I'm not worried about this terrible hand, because I always say that "the first hand doesn't count". I'll toss T-J to my crib and see what CribPro brings me: score is now 13-11, certainly not impressive but I'm happy with the +2 points.

   

Thursday 6:39 AM

There's only one other dealt hand worse than this
2 - 4 - 6 - 8 - 10 - K

   

Thursday 7:13 AM

EZ one for me today! Think I'll take the rest of the day off now! Ha!

   

Thursday 7:17 AM

Went with middle cards to crib.

   

Thursday 10:38 AM

I like the small cards for pegging and guaranteed improvement with anything other than a ten-card. Another great puzzle and amazing comments. Thank you all for commenting!

   

Thursday 11:39 AM

Close cards to the crib gives us three choices - 3-4, 6-7 or 10-J:

6-7-10-J: 0pt + 5pts (Schell: 4.91) = 5pts

3-4-10-J: 0pt + 5pts (Schell: 4.98) = 5pts

3-4-6-7: 0pt + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.61) = 4¾pts

Potential:

6-7-10-J: Improves with 2222, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 3/5/7pts with 5555, 8888, 9999, QQQQ = 16 cuts. Plus 10 diamond cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

3-4-10-J: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 8888, 9999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 3/4/7pts with AAAA, 2222, 5555, 9999, QQQQ = 20 cuts. Plus 10 diamond cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

3-4-6-7: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 4/7/9pts with 2222, 444, 5555, 666, 8888 = 18 cuts.

Position:

We have a lousy hand as First Dealer but positional hole is only at 8pts and we still have positional advantage and hopefully with a cut, pegging and the crib we should reach or exceed this. I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

With 2 low cards and two middle cards I think 3-4-6-7 will peg best. It also has a magic eleven and 16.

Summary:

6-7-10-J and 3-4-10-J both start with 5pts and both have nearly ¼pt for a diamond cut for his nob. 3-4-10-J has a few more cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 3-7pts compared to 16 cuts for 3-7pts with 6-7-10-J. 3-4-6-7 starts only ¼pt behind but also doesn't have the nob potential but it does have 18 cuts for 3-9pts with a better maximum for a 5 cut (handy insurance especially with 10-J in the crib). It also should peg best but even so I'm inclined to go with the suited 6-7.

   

Thursday 11:39 AM

At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
3-4-10-J___3.00+(-2.39)+5.09=5.70____25.7____39.1
3-4-6-7____3.13+(-2.02)+4.48=5.59____26.0____38.5
6-7-10-J___2.65+(-2.24)+4.86=5.27____25.2____38.4

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
3-4-10-J______25.9____33.1
3-4-6-7_______27.8____34.5
6-7-10-J______26.7____34.1

3-4-10-J is best for expected averages by 0.11pt. and is very slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select the suited 6-7 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Thursday 12:15 PM

HalscribCLX shows the numbers. This hand is very sensitive to the X-point combination held. If the X-pointers had been J-Q, holding 3-4-6-7 would have had the greater combined value. Play off the lead although would play the J on a 5 lead. Take no pairs unless high enough in count to avoid a triple. Don't panic as dealer when looking at a small hand and crib potential as only 7 points are needed to have 50/50 chance to win.

   

Thursday 1:06 PM

I'll stick with defense though this hand really has me considering offense. Tossing the middle part of the hand, hopefully it finds friends in the crib. Know about 6 guaranteed points after the cut so will keep on the defense train.