*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)

			46%
			42%
			4%
			3%
			1%
			1%
			0%
Total votes: 221

I'll try 8-8 since I know the location of one of the sevens.

I am going for the 44 and beyond position. Face cards or middle card run in their hand I might just be able to peg a few also. dec

With a nice lead on the board I’m not sending 5-5 to their crib. Every cut except the ace helps this hand. I might lead a 5 here to try to confuse my opponent and avoid having two 5s at the end of the pegging. If opp’s desperate, they may just pair the 5 thinking I have 3 X-pointers in my hand.

Very tough call here but I’m going to risk the 5/5 discard to keep the pat 12 hand-a 7 or 8 cut gives us a monster without providing immediate help to the crib-an ace ,deuce or 9 also provides us with some help without aiding the 5-5-a 6 cut would give us 20 but would be potentially very dangerous for a 5-5 discard-the majority of the deck helps this hand so go for the knockout punch-even if we give up a 10-12 point crib we already have a 12 hand so dealer would also need a big hand to wipe out our original 13 point cushion

With dealer at eighteen and in good dealing position on 1st street, we need to move on down the board. Our goal should be 44-46 or more. Offense to the lead.

We only need about 13 points to be in position. Why give them two fives?

J Cut exactly why I said No to 5s in the Crib

Win or loss on this hand. I might have just caught the house on fire. Lead an 8.

Damn the torpedoes! Full speed ahead!

With a 13 point lead I will throw the fives; not so in a closer game. Posted this hand last year as I just had it in a tournament. Threw the eights in that case, cut a 7, 24 for my opponent. Had I thrown the more conservative 58, as it was a closer game, he still would have had 14. The danger of middle cards.

This is close, but I’ll play for the huge 20 & 24 cuts. I don’t like playing position early - but - the guaranteed 12 here helps as well. I also really hate how 5567 pegs as non-dealer.

I felt more comfortable discarding the 8's, rather than the 5's. I'll lead the 7.

Sometimes you just have to pinch your nose and discard.

I'll look at 5-5-6-7 (8-8), 6-7-8-8 (5-5) and 5-6-7-8 (5-8D):

5-5-6-7: 8pts - 6¾pys (Schell: 6.82) = +1¼pts

6-7-8-8: 12pts - 9½pts (Schell: 9.37) = +2½pts

5-6-7-8C: 6pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.30) = -½pt

Potential:

5-5-6-7: Improves with 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 777, 88, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/16/17pts with 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 777, 88 + 16xXs = 34 cuts.

6-7-8-8: Improves with 2222, 55, 666, 777, 88, 9999 = 18 cuts = 18/46 = 39.1% up to 16/20/21/24pts with 666, 777, 88, 9999 = 12 cuts.

5-6-7-8C: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 777, 88, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/10/12/14pts with 2222, 4444, 55, 666, 777, 88, 9999 = 22 cuts.

Position:

We need 13pts to reach 2nd street positional hole and with this hand we're likely to do that. I'll play Defensively for the pegging although this hand doesn't lend itself for that.

Pegging:

All these hands will peg well but we may well find ourselves playing Offense. 5-6-7-8 may well be more versatile to avoid giving away pegs.

Summary:

6-7-8-8 has the best starting value by 1¼pts over 5-5-6-7 and has the best maximum at 24pts. 5-6-7-8 is guaranteed improvement but 5-5-6-7 is close behind with 42 cuts, 34 of which will score 12-17pts. The 8-8 cut will also benefit from some negative delta as we hold a 7. I don't think in this position we need to go all out for 20-24pts and risk the 5-5 so I'll throw the 8-8.

At 31-18* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W6 %____W7 %
5-5-6-7____12.22+1.20+(-5.58)=7.84____20.9____51.9
6-7-8-8____14.65+1.13+(-9.67)=6.11____27.0____57.7
5-6-7-8*____9.43+1.33+(-5.92)=4.84____15.3____44.0
5-5-7-8_____7.57+1.26+(-4.60)=4.23____13.9____41.3

Offense______L6 %____L7 %
5-5-6-7_______2.2_____8.2
6-7-8-8_______3.7_____9.1
5-6-7-8*______1.9____10.0
5-5-7-8_______2.2____11.4

5-5-6-7 is best for expected averages by 1.73pts but 6-7-8-8
is very much best for Win %s and only slightly higher for Loss %s. So although it is still quite early in the game because we are approaching a positional hole and the Win %s are so much higher I'll select 5-5 to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead an 8 and play Offense:

Lead_______Our Pegging Pts.
8_______________1.38
6_______________1.22
7_______________1.10

Sitting at hole 31, needing to deal from 2nd street CPZ (43-47), will hold the dozen points with the chance for A-2-6-7-8-9 as starter to put RAS well beyond hole 43. Am thinking offense when looking at the pegs, offense when looking at the six cards, and offense when seeing the starter card. Will lead the 8 and take any pegs offered. True, the 5-5 to opponent crib has a very high average of 9.086 though a 10-16 crib here is very possible after the cut of the Jack. Don't like dropping down to the 8 point hand here as cuts of A-2 add nothing and 5-5-6-7 is a very poor pegging hand for non-dealer whether choosing offense or defense pegging strategies. If holding 5-5-6-7, lead a five. And you know how much I hate tossing 5-5 to opponent crib. Two successive 5-5 tosses across the board resulted in 51 points (cribs of 23 and 28). Here we go again! Hope this dealer does not die when seeing the crib score. The shock of a 28-crib already killed one guy. Never told his widow as she might have thought the 5-5 toss was premeditated. Have told this story a few times over the years. Can you add additional details?

I couldn’t give dealer two 5s so it was two 8s instead.

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