Wednesday 3:21 AM

Interesting. Needing just 4 to win. Start with an Ace.

Wednesday 3:38 AM

Why I picked this. Needing 5 to win. A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9. 30 cuts right? I have a good lead with the three and depending on response I can pick the best odds response that will limit them to no more then 3 pegs. Just do not cut one of those sixteen face cards. Still a difficult choice. dec

Wednesday 3:56 AM

Tough one today, John.
Plenty of helpful cuts, but if I need to peg I have the 3-7-A eleven, or maybe I can get the pair of Aces in back to back at a high count?

Wordle 1,208 5/6

⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
⬛⬛🟨⬛⬛
⬛🟩⬛⬛🟩
⬛🟩🟩⬛🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
I wouldn't spell it this way.

Wednesday 4:03 AM

I bet the ranch on a face card. ugh. Lead the 3 and peg a point.

Wednesday 5:40 AM

We need Five Points to WIN as Pone, while the Dealer only needs Four Points to defeat us. We can start FOUR different ways with Four Points, but we need Five Points to WIN as Pone today, and pegging as Pone is never a sure thing.

First, let's find our candidates:

Obviously, we can begin with Four Points if we Keep (A A 3 3), or (A A 7 8), or (3 3 7 8), and hidden in there is also (A 3 3 8).

(A A 3 3) has a Dozen Cuts (4444, 5555, 6666) that add NO HELP;

(3 3 7 8) has Sixteen Cuts (TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK) that add NO HELP;

(A 3 3 8) has Twenty Cuts (5555, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK) that add NO HELP;

(A A 7 8) has Twenty-Six Cuts (2222, 33, 4444, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK) that add NO HELP.

And why not examine an idea such as (A A 3 7), since it only fails to get help after Four Cuts (9999)? Be careful not to include ideas like (A A 3 7) or (A A 3 8), because these only begin with Two Points! 🐫

It seems as though (A A 3 3) gets help from all but those Dozen Cards (4444, 5555, 6666), but we should probably look at one more thing, and that's the pegging!

Of the Top Three ideas of (A A 3 3), (3 3 7 8), or (A 3 3 8), which Hand is the MOST likely to be able to peg AT LEAST ONE HOLE? Such a factor might dig into or even erase those differences in the number of Cut Cards that offer NO HELP.

With no three- or four-card Magic Elevens, it may seem axiomatic to retain the Two Aces, but if the Count does not approach Thirty-One, we might never get that "go" that allows us to play these back-to-back. Therefore, while (A A 3 3) may have the fewest Cut Card LOSERS, it may also not fare too well during the pegging.

The (3 3 7 8) idea has the next-fewest Cut Card LOSERS, and the two Middle Cards should help get the Count going during the pegging, but we have no Aces to help us secure that much-needed "go."

I tend to prefer those ideas that can help get the Count up toward Thirty-One more rapidly and reliably, and to do so while containing one or more Aces, and for this I like (A 3 3 8). Yes, it does have Twenty Cuts that fail to add any help, but if we have a good chance of pegging at least One Hole, that may not matter.

Let's Toss (A 7) today, and put our Pegging Hats on. 🎩

After the 6 Card Cut, we now have Six Points, so it's now a Defensive Struggle to prevent the Dealer from pegging Four Holes. Let's lead a Trey from our PAIR, which will leave us with the Maximum Variety from which we can best DEFEND. ☕ 🍰

Wednesday 5:44 AM

Went this way and leading the 8, hoping they put a face on it to escape. Perfect world scenario: I play my 7, they have high cards, say go, 3 and 3 and win LOL

Wednesday 5:46 AM

Wednesday 5:55 AM

Wednesday 6:31 AM

Might play the 7 first but couldn't rule out playing ace first either.

Wednesday 6:32 AM

I’m with the 45% who threw 7 8 because we hoped that a court card would be drawn and that it wouldn’t matter we had thrown good cards to dealer.

Wednesday 7:00 AM

I am throwing the A7. Have a nice day!

Wednesday 7:19 AM

I’d lead the 3 for sure and hope it gets paired. Otherwise, after that it’s full defense since we have six points and thus we will win if we don’t lose pegging out.

Wednesday 7:42 AM

Earlier in the game this would be the standard way to play the hand as Pone. JQT explains it better than I ever could why it is probably best in this end game scenario. I kept three hearts more out of habit than anything else. Lead the 3h to fake the flush, and maintain maximum defensive pegging ability.

Wednesday 7:52 AM

We have a lead card, cards that are spaced out well, and two medium cards that might help us get a go. AA33 tempting but too closely spaced. The 2 medium cards Hopefully help us get the go if a face card is cut.

Wednesday 8:18 AM

I went with the most cuts that help but see the logic of the other alternatives with more spacing to assist in the pegging phase.

Wednesday 8:53 AM

Pegging Examples after Toss (A 7):

(116-117*) (Keep (A 3 3 8) and Toss (A 7), 9 Oct 2024 by JQT.

Against (X X X X), we will prevail, even if a Jack Cut occurs, as follows:
3 (3) X (13) 3 (16) X (26) A (27-1), X (10) 8 (18) X (28=1), (121-119*).

After a Non-Helpful, Non-Jack Cut, we can still prevail:
3 (3) 5 (8) 8 (16) 2 (18) A (19) A (20=2) 3 (23-1), 9 (9=1), (121-120*).

After a Jack Cut, it does get more difficult:
3 (3) 4 (7) 8 (15-2) T (25) 3 (28) "go" A (29-1), 6 (6) 5 (11=1), (121-120*).

If we get a Helpful Cut Card, such as ALL BUT (5555, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), we wish to adopt a Defensive Posture, but in isolated instances, Offense or a Mixed, Strategic Approach may be the required tactic at a given juncture.

For example, let's say a HELPFUL Cut Card such as an Ace Cut occurs, and after we lead a Trey, the Dealer responds with a 9 Card. We don't need to peg, so the Trey response is not mandatory, and we certainly wouldn't play our 8 Card, so do we play our Ace or our Trey? Either could work or fail. 🤔

Both "Small Card" replies help to bust up the dangerous A-3 duo in our Hand, but since one Trey has already been led, and an Ace was the Cut Card, I would play the Ace here, and "save" the slightly safer Trey in our Hand, and thus: 3 (3) 8 (11) A! (12) as this trades a slightly higher risk NOW in order to secure a much safer path LATER or afterwards.

It's similar if we lead a Trey and the Dealer responds with an "X" Card:
3 (3) T (13) A! (14)

And also after a Deuce Cut:
3 (3) 9 (12) A! (13)

Getting "Burned" Badly after a Deuce Cut:
3 (3) 4 (7) 8 (15-2) 8 (23=2) 3 (26) 5 (31=2), (118-121*). 🔥

Those are just a few examples in this Pegging Battle Endgame, a game we should WIN at least HALF of the time. 🎭

Wednesday 9:28 AM

Wednesday 11:06 AM

I think we ought to hold 4pts so that means it is either A-A-7-8 (3-3), 3-3-7-8 (A-A), A-3-3-8 (A-7) or A-A-3-3 (7-8):

A-A-7-8: Improves with AA, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5%.

3-3-7-8: Improves with AA, 2222, 33, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2%.

A-3-3-8: Improves with AA, 2222, 33, 4444, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5%.

A-A-3-3: AA, 2222, 33, 777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9%.

A-A-3-3 has the best chance of improvement and with two pairs will play Defense well and hopefully keep Dealer's pegging to 3pts or fewer. So I'll throw the 7-8.

Wednesday 11:06 AM

At 116-117* playing a BOLD strategy for the pegging the Hold Enough %s, Dealer Peg Out %s and Our Peg Out %s are:

BOLD_____Hold Out %______Dlr Peg Out %___Our Peg Out %
A-3-3-8_____97.0_____________35.8_____________0.0
3-3-7-8_____96.6_____________43.1_____________0.0
A-A-3-3_____95.4_____________15.1_____________1.5
A-A-3-8_____94.1_____________39.6_____________0.0
A-A-7-8_____92.7_____________31.4_____________0.0

A-3-3-8 is best for Hold Enough %s but A-A-3-3 is very much lowest for Dealer Pegging Out %s and also has a small chance of Pegging Out ourselves. So I'll select 7-8 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Points
3____________________1.24
A____________________1.11

Wednesday 11:43 AM

It would seem that the four small cards would give up fewer pegs to dealer than some other combinaiton. Never dreamed dealer peg out would be about 1 of 7; though that would be about 1/3. HalscribCLX shows dealer peg out with A-A-3-3 at 15.1%. Lead a trey and need to peg one. That might be difficult with cards that total 8 points. Won't split the Aces until forced to do so. So, second card will also be a trey.

Wednesday 2:09 PM

Well, I decided to toss the 7-8. Holding 4 points and need to peg 1 for the win. CribPro was agreeable today - led a 3 (safe lead), played the second 3 and then got a "go" and played the 2 aces for 3 points and the win.

Wednesday 4:36 PM

I appreciate the opinions of those that are strong peggers. Not being of their number I'm taking the hand that I believe will peg defensively (or is at least easier to pilot) while retaining the most cuts to win. I'd accept there are more optimal ways for an optimal player to play this, I'm confident this gives "me" the highest chance to win.

Wednesday 6:15 PM

I don't like having a pip count of all low cards here, so my idea is to remove the A's from my hand. I feel my chances to hold dealer under 4 pegs is quite good, and I at least have a shot at escaping any attempt dealer may have at "forcing" the issue while playing on my 3 lead. The A's in conjunction with the 3's are dangerous, one because I can't raise the count high, and secondly because I may not be able to escape a play-on attempt. I feel it is also likely I should be able to peg at least 1 by retaining my 4 highest cards. Let's lead from my pair of 3's and play peg avoidance while taking safe pegs, or certainly if able to peg enough to win before the hand count.