February 21, 2014

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0-0*  ?
48%
48%
34%
34%
12%
12%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 141
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6563 votes)

Friday 3:38 AM
Getting threw this first hand is pone need to load up so the 8-9 is a goner for me. Go with the odds on faces and fives. dec
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6563 votes)

Friday 4:01 AM
I threw I am through...
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4272 votes)

Friday 4:34 AM
Hate giving up 2-3 but 8-9 is no picnic either. Keeping it this way gives me a few chances for 10-12 points. I'll lead the 8.
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4262 votes)

Friday 4:50 AM
At least Toss (8 9) is only potential points for our Opponent, while Toss (2 3) will ALWAYS become points.

The Cut gives us Ten Points to begin the game, which is not too bad for an Early Friday Morning in February.

I'll lead the Trey, of course.
Gougie00 says: Way too short commentary.
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Noted your comments of yesterday regarding RAS discard tables. Your questions are well grounded and suspect that others who have a copy of my original work might have similar queries. The DIS column on discarding to own crib reflects the composite ranking of that discard. That column, for some reason unknown to me after all these years, does not appear on the table for discarding to opponent. The composite ranking might be some what different than the ranking based on static average alone. That composite ranking is based on the placement of the discard combination in each of the categories. Take the 5-5 as an example. It ranks first in average and receives a 1, it ranks second in scoring two or less points and gets a 2. Then it is ranked by the number of cribs of 8 points or more and by the number of cribs of 12 or more. Those four rankings are divided then by the number of categories (4) to arrive at the composite ranking of 1.666. This makes no difference for the 5-5 as the composite ranking is much superior to any other choice. Overall it does make a difference as the static averages to own crib for the ten highest averages would be 5-5, 2-3, 5-J, 5-6, 5-K, 5-10, 5-Q, 4-5, 7-8, and 3-3. The composite would show the top ten in this order: 5-5, 2-3, 5-6, 5-J, 7-8, 5-K, 5-Q, 3-3, 4-5, and 7-7. Regarding the letters U, D, and S, those indicate that average is going up, down, or is stable. By stable it means that there has been no change of more than .1 of a point. If the S is followed by a number (1, 2, 3, 4, 5), that means that it has remained stable for that many postings. Since this was prior to the advent of computers, the postings were taken from lined tablet sheets after accumulation of several months of data. That number was a working clue to me as I intended to pay no further attention to stability once I had made five postings. So S5 would mean stable with no more than .1 variation for five postings. Think that covers the bases. You know I never consider a question as frivolous. So if you have others, they will be most welcome. Often others have been wondering about similar data or situations and have not bothered to ask. So by asking, you may be filling in blanks for a number of folks. Keep on peggin'!
JQT says: Thank you, Sir - I have attached your explanation to the table in question, and I will 'dive back in' and figure it out. I hope you (and others) enjoy my upcoming puzzles over the weekend.
Guest says: Are the cuts random or do you pick them when you submit puzzleThank you for all your advice and effort you put in to your posts
Guest says: Hi guest, the cuts are randomly generated.
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4100 votes)

Friday 4:54 AM
As I'm holding one of the 5's, 8-2 should be fairly low scoring I think? 3-5-9-10 increases on all cuts, so I'll have at least 4 points to begin with.

Andy (muesli64)

Joined: August 2009 (2230 votes)

Friday 4:57 AM
Yes, happy to throw 8-9.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (5915 votes)

Friday 5:45 AM
Ugh! Tossing 9-10 seemed like a good idea.
PBatterson

Joined: March 2009 (1589 votes)

Friday 6:10 AM
Playing a little defense here.
wb8mkv.doug

Joined: December 2013 (289 votes)

Friday 6:46 AM
I keep 2 3 5 10.......
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5329 votes)

Friday 7:53 AM
Chose the more offensive approach. Some folks claim that I am more offensive all the time whether on the crib board or not. Hnad potential and non-dealer on opening hand major considerations for me on this one. 8-9 to opponent averages 5.891 (699). If I were tossing a bit on the defensive side, would have retained 2-5-8-10, discarded 3-9 (not a very defensive a discard by the way) with static average of 5.177 (689). Will lead the 10 spot, keeping 2-3-5 intact. Take pegs as available.
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5752 votes)

Friday 9:31 AM
No way I'm throwing 2-3 to opponent's box. So its between 8-9 or 3-9. 3-9 is safer so even though I'm first pone I'll play a little cautiously and throw this.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5481 votes)

Friday 11:30 AM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

Offense------Hand-Pegs--Crib---Total---W9 %---W10 %
2-3-5-10__7.26+1.70+(-5.42)=3.54___25.7___22.5
2-5-8-10__6.20+1.41+(-4.36)=3.25___22.0___21.7
2-3-5-8___5.61+2.02+(-5.21)=2.42___22.7___19.7
3-5-9-10__4.80+1.72+(-4.48)=2.04___20.1___20.1
2-5-8-9___4.72+1.57+(-4.25)=2.04___19.5___19.1
3-5-8-10__4.54+1.59+(-4.39)=1.74___19.2___19.0
5-8-9-10__7.72+1.35+(-7.33)=1.74___26.0___19.6

Offense-------L9 %----L10 %
2-3-5-10__40.7____52.5
2-5-8-10__37.2____52.1
2-3-5-8___41.3____55.1
3-5-9-10__37.4____53.4
2-5-8-9___38.2____54.4
3-5-8-10__37.8____54.4
5-8-9-10__45.5____56.5

2-3-5-10 is best for expected averages by just over ¼pt compared to 2-5-8-10 and is best for Win %s. 2-5-8-10 is better for Loss %s because of the safer 3-9 discard compared to 8-9 but as I'm playing Offense and at the start of the game I'll place more weight on the expected averages I shall select 8-9 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Offense:

Lead----Net Peg Pts.
3__________1.86
5__________1.74
10_________1.73
2__________1.67
MikeA

Joined: October 2009 (1164 votes)

Friday 1:37 PM
8-9 to his crib. Good cut.