October 30, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
57-56*  ?
53%
53%
24%
24%
13%
13%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Total votes: 166
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4262 votes)

Monday 3:06 AM
Besides appearing just one day apart, what makes yesterday's Dealer Discard similar to today's Pone Discard? Again, it is not about what is, but about what may become.

But here, we have choices of our discard that involve giving away actual points, such as throwing a 5 Card, or worse, of throwing Toss (2 3).

And we also have opposing choices such as Toss (8 9) or Toss (8 T), discards which involve some danger, but until we see both Dealer's Discard and the Cut, these choices may in fact be safe.

Can Toss (8 9) for example, become dangerous? Of course it can! But should we avoid Toss (8 9) at the risk of holding similar or even fewer points, and meanwhile throwing away certain points, as in Toss (? 5) or Toss (2 3). I think certainly NOT!

Here I'll gladly Keep (2 3 5 T) and unload Toss (8 9) and endure the unknown, as opposed to ruining my Hand and giving away certain points!

Who knows: with a decent Cut, maybe we can achieve our goal, which is to Deal from at-or-beyond Hole 70 during Next Deal. I'll lead the Trey, and hope to score an early (15-2).
Guest says: Who knows, Columbus took a chance and got him in trouble with the Queen !!!!!!!
JQT says: Christopher Columbus, the now-famous Italian explorer, sponsored by King Ferdinand and Queen Isabella of Spain, indeed made four separate trips across the Atlantic Ocean between the years 1492 and 1504. Although horses probably originated many millions of years ago in what is now North America, they were thought to have largely become extinct around 10,000 or 11,000 years ago, during the most recent Ice Age that covered a large portion of the continent. Thus Columbus often gets credit, and probably rightly so, during his second and third voyages, for being one of the first (of many) explorers to unknowingly "return" horses to the North American continent. Martin Luther, the German theologian who instigated the Protestant Reformation, which began precisely 500 years ago in 1517, was born in 1483, and therefore would have been about nine years of age when Columbus first sailed West! And therefore, those trips by Columbus all occurred approximately 70 years before the existence of both Galileo and Shakespeare (who were both born in 1564). And thus Columbus' journeys were over 100 years before the birth of the one called Sir John Suckling. Who? Sir John Suckling, that's who: he who was born in 1609, and who was known to be a prolific gambler and womanizer, and sharp wit and provocative poet, and who later took his own life in 1641 by way of poison, and did so before he would reach the not-so-ripe age of thirty-three, and who invented the game known today as "Cribbage" (or rather he "adapted" the earlier known game of "Noddy," using its familiar board, which became what was then to be called "Cribbidge"). Suckling had distributed "marked" cards throughout areas in which he would later visit, and then he would often play his game of Cribbage for money against many players who were caught unawares. It is estimated that Sir John Suckling raised about 20,000 pounds by mostly cheating at Cribbage, or what is the modern-day equivalent of over $5 million USD! As an aside, the U.S. currency is currently (as of 2017) enjoying its fastest rise in many decades, and the U.S. dollar has been strengthening dramatically against virtually all of the world's other major currencies. In fact, since the start of 2015 alone, the USD has gone up about 14%, so while a million dollars is of course a lot of cash, it's certainly not what it used to be.
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2052 votes)

Monday 3:06 AM
If I am to play position first then offense it is by tossing 8-9 to dealer. Values for 3-9, 5.18 points and 8-9, 5.89 points. Is there a better choice?
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2705 votes)

Monday 3:33 AM
Might consider leading the 10 to hold onto 2-3-5. Opponent may try to avoid playing a face card on a 3 lead.
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4100 votes)

Monday 3:50 AM
Wanted to avoid 2-3 and 8-9, so I thought I'd try 2-5-8-10 (3-9) on for size. The cut of a 3 gives me another two points, but it also guarantees four points in my opponent's box.

10 lead.
BigFoot Bob

Joined: April 2016 (624 votes)

Monday 4:16 AM
Tossing the risky 8-9 so I can keep a basic hand to build on.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (5915 votes)

Monday 5:50 AM
I'll try it this way and hope the dealer didnt toss himself 78. Lead the 3.

In between with the position at hole 57. Cautious offense with a 3 lead?
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4272 votes)

Monday 6:26 AM
I’ll kead the three and take all the pegs I can get.
Inushtuk1

Joined: July 2016 (1650 votes)

Monday 7:19 AM
JQT lays it out very well. I see Jazzselke’s point about the 10 lead; but I prefer the 3. The 10 lead so often ends up with us exchanging points. With the 3 lead I may get (15-2), and (30-1), shutting Dealer out in the first play series. Also, a common response to the 3 lead is a 7. I still get my (15-2), and Dealer does not *always* have a 6 with that 7. But if s/he does my 10 now scores (31-2). I’m still ahead of the game, 4-3 after the first play series.
Inushtuk1 says: Thank you Matt for fixing the encoding problem. I am once again free to use contractions, and quotation marks as much as I please.
Inushtuk1 says: On the 8 reply to my 3 lead I’ll dump the 5. The 2 goes on the 9 reply
Inushtuk1 says: Same goes for a 6 reply. If my 3 is paired I dump the 5 to entice a 4. On the 2 I get the obvious (15-2). Another 2 on the Ace reply. And of course, pairing the 5. For what it’s worth.
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5752 votes)

Monday 12:17 PM
Three hands to try, perhaps? 5-8-9-10 (2-3), 2-5-8-10 (3-9) and 2-3-5-10 (8-9):

5-8-9-10: 5pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.33) = -2½pts

2-5-8-10: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.87) = -¾pts

2-3-5-10: 4pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = -1¾pts

Potential:

5-8-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 84.8% up to 9/10/12pts with 555, 888, 999, 101010 = 12 cuts.

2-5-8-10: Improves with 222, 333, 555, 7777, 888, 999 + 15xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 8/10pts with 222, 555, 888, 101010 = 12 cuts.

2-3-5-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 8/10pts with 222, 333, 4444, 555 + 15xXs = 28 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-5-10 will peg best with 2-5-8-10 next best.

Position:

We need 13pts to reach par-hole for our next deal. Depending on the cut I'll peg Offense to help reach it.

Summary:

The starting value for 5-8-9-10, I think, is too low to catch up. Of the two hands that start with 4pts 2-3-5-10 has more cuts for improvement and many more cuts for 8-10pts. Also it should peg better. It does start with 1pt less but there will be a little negative delta as we hold a 10 and I think the potential and pegging will more than make up the rest. So I'll throw 8-9.
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5329 votes)

Monday 1:22 PM
There are times when we should pay our position alone. This is one of those. It's off., off., and off. for me. It seems to me that the lead of the trey is the defensive choice. Knowing that I have 8 points after the cut of the trey, need 3-4 pegs, will lead the 10 spot hoping to pair or score a run with the remaining 2-3-5. See the wonderful insight of JQT above and Coeurdelion's analysis just above.
Ras2829 says: Want to make a real effort to reach that 3rd street CPZ 69-73. Close at 68 would be much better than 65-66. For what it' worth!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. You and Dan like the 10 lead on offense. Could you give us an example of the type of hand the Dealer would have to have, where we could score a run with the remaining 2-3-5, given the fact that Dealer will be playing *defense* here. thanking you in advance.
Jazzselke says: As far as being able to pair, sometimes the opponent will play a 2 or a 3 on a 10 lead under the assumption that you would have led it.From there you can decide to pair or create a run possibility; its possible the dealer has low cards and cannot stay away.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: It's not so much that I am concerned about what cards dealer has. What I've observed over a long period is that dealer will put the count at 15 or more rather than drop a small card on a X- lead. I'd like to pick up a small card especially a 2-3-4 in the later pegging. The only small card that dealer consistently drops on a X-lead is the Ace. Admittedly, it often doesn't work. It might this time and note that even the cribbot shows only 2/10 of a point difference between leading 3 and 10 spot. The chance for 3-4 pegs here is worth the small risk with opponent at hole 56. Conversely if playing defense the trey is ideal lead as it puts some air between the 2-5 and is matched with the trey on the deck.
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks guys.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5481 votes)

Monday 1:26 PM
At 57-56* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W4 %___W5 %
2-3-5-10__7.26+1.70+(-5.37)=3.59____7.7____34.0
2-5-8-10__6.20+1.41+(-4.36)=3.25____5.5____29.2
2-3-5-8___5.61+2.02+(-5.27)=2.36____6.0____29.3
3-5-9-10__4.80+1.72+(-4.48)=2.04____4.5____26.2
2-5-8-9___4.72+1.57+(-4.25)=2.04____4.2____25.1
3-5-8-10__4.54+1.57+(-4.39)=1.74____4.1____24.7
5-8-9-10__7.72+1.35+(-7.33)=1.74____8.0____33.3

Offense______L4 %___L5 %
2-3-5-10_____9.2____33.8
2-5-8-10_____6.5____34.2
2-3-5-8______8.8____37.7
3-5-9-10_____6.6____36.3
2-5-8-9______6.9____37.7
3-5-8-10_____6.7____37.6
5-8-9-10____11.1____38.5

2-3-5-10 is best for expected averages by 0.34pt and is also best for Win %s by a significant amount. It is not the best for Loss %but is reasonable. So I'll select 8-9 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Offense:

Lead______Our Pegging Pts.
3_____________1.98
10____________1.77
2_____________1.70
5_____________1.58