May 19, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by mfetchct425
0*-0  ?
47%
24%
20%
4%
3%
Total votes: 225

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

mrob2199
341 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 3:28 AM
Wow what a hand!!! I will keep the flush today I think lol-I’ll keep the 8-9-10 run together and throw the powerful 4/5 in the crib-we still retain a magic eleven for pegging and we have some flexibility to peg offensively or defensively
Andy (muesli64)
1750 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 3:58 AM
I threw 8-9. Is that too conventional?
My hand pegs better that way?
Ras2829
3741 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 4:25 AM
Well here, wan to go with the better scoring of the upper cards of sequence since my crib. So it's good bye 8-9. The difference between 8-9 and 9-10 is quite small as are many of the margins in cribbage at 4.768 31/91 compared to 9-10 at 4.758 32/91. When looking at cards of sequence J-Q, 8-9,and 9-10, they are al stacked up at 30, 31, and 32 with J-Q (not available among these) at 4.827 to own crib. So when given the choice J-Q has the higher average when compared to the 8-9, with 9-10 close on the heels. As dealer of first hand, knowing dealer needs 7 points on first hand to have 50/50 chance to win, with 16 points staring me in the face. will play safe on the pegs.
dec
4885 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 4:54 AM
Offensively this hand might peg better. Potential sixteen/eighteen points. We all would love to be on second street after this. Now after this cut lets see their lead and peg if this dream can come to this realization. dec
Rosemarie44
1598 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 4:57 AM
I prefer the lower card run and 8-9 to my crib. Great hand to hold, lots of hearts!
usacoder
290 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Tuesday 4:59 AM
I think it's pretty basic - keep a run... any run.
james500
2505 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 5:08 AM
3-4 from me.
Nine points in hand and a useful discard.
thelawnet
156 votes

Joined: January 2020

   
Tuesday 5:10 AM
Keep the better run intact, supporting t, toss the open straight draw to the crib
Gougie00
4283 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 5:23 AM
Cant miss whether its 34 or 89 or 910.
Jazzselke
1480 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 6:34 AM
45 is a top 5 discard, so surprised it is not a more popular throw this morning. A common toss from an opponent is 6X. Other good options , but 45 is only behind 55, 23, 5J, and 56 on most tables.
JRCeagle78
880 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Tuesday 6:35 AM
Every starter card helps the hand, except the 9, which still helps the crib. The 3 gives me 16 points.

The main drawback is that the 3-4-5, if not played smartly could lead to some unnecessary pegging by the pone. The ten can be used as an escape card to avoid a pegging battle of runners.
SallyAnn3
69 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Tuesday 8:53 AM
My preference is holding a 3-4-5-8 without the flush, so am sticking with that. Still touching cards to the crib. Jazzmans's analysis of the 6 Q being tossed is interesting. Am going with more people throwing away a 9/QK, or a 1o/K and catching a pair in the crib.
JQT
2842 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 9:25 AM
If you play Cribbage long enough, you will find yourself the recipient of a six-card hand of all the same suit.

Play a few decades longer, and you might even witness a game in which during a given deal, BOTH players pick up all the same suit.

But should you continue to partake in tens of thousands of ever-increasing games, you may finally and ultimately behold a deal in which not just both players hold all the same suit, but the thirteenth and final card of that same suit is the Cut Card.

And then you'll know, it's probably time to shuffle those "new" cards.
dgergens
589 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Tuesday 10:10 AM
I have not grand explanation for how I arrive at my choice. Just decided it was 3,4,5 and not 8,9,T that I was keeping together. Then had to choose two out of 8,9,T to put in MY crib.
cribbagepogo
2976 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 11:29 AM
Preferred 8/9 to 9/10 as people like to hoard the J.
mfetchCT425
551 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 12:56 PM
Thanks as always to the great analysis, insight, and banter from this highly intellectual group of cribbers. Such an honor to be a part of this cribbage crew. Like yesterday (I have a late day comment there), I received this hand and game situation in an online ACC tournament. During that tournament I tossed 3-4, but after analyzing in more depth, I now like the 8-9 a little better as Ras explains so eloquently above. To tell the truth, I didn’t even think to toss 4-5 as Rob and Dan S. have advocated. It’s a very intriguing and viable choice. Thanks Both. The rankings of top 10 discards to own crib that I recall from Ras’s list are: 5-5, 2-3, 5-J, 5-6, 5-K, 5-10, 5-Q, 4-5, 7-8, 3-3. Not sure I have that order and list exactly correct. In any case, it shows the power of 4-5 to own crib. Nicely done Rob and Dan S! Thanks again all.
Coeurdelion
4202 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 1:24 PM
There's several possible hands here but some I think we can eliminate. 3-4-5-10 (8-9) ought to be better than 3-4-5-8 (9-10) as it is a stronger discard. The only other hand that scores 9pts is 5-8-9-10 (3-4). I don't think it will be worth sacrificing 3pts to throw 5-10 but it might be worth sacrificing 2pts for the 4-5 throw. So I'll examine 3 hands;

3-4-5-10: 9pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.72) = 13¾pts

5-8-9-10: 9pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.91) = 14pts

3-8-9-10: 7pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 13½pts

Potential:

3-4-5-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 12/13/14/16pts with 2222, 333, 555, 6666, 101010 = 17 cuts. Plus 7 hearts for 1pt extra for the flush = 7/46 = 0.15pt.

5-8-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999 + 15xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 12/13/14/16pts with 555, 777, 888, 999, 101010 = 15 cuts. Plus 7 hearts for 1pt extra for the flush = 7/46 = 0.15pt.

3-8-9-10: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 10/11/12pts with 333, 7777, 888, 999, 101010 = 16 cuts. Plus 7 hearts for 1pt extra for the flush = 7/46 = 0.15pt.

Position:

As First Dealer I'll play Defense. Positional hole is 8pts but I'll try to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

With 3 low cards and a high card I think 3-4-5-10 will peg best.

Summary:

3-4-5-10 has a starting value lower than 5-8-9-10 but only by ¼pt (0.19pt according to Schell). However it has more cuts for improvement and more for 12-16pts. It also has twice as many for the maximum 16pts (333, 555 vs 555). Also it should peg better. So I'll throw the 8-9.
HalscribCLX
3971 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 2:05 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense__Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
3-4-5-10__12.17+(-2.20)+4.58=14.55____50.4____60.3
5-8-9-10__11.91+(-2.09)+4.62=14.44____49.4____59.6
3-4-5-8___12.30+(-2.20)+3.91=14.01____50.0____59.5
3-8-9-10___9.35+(-2.26)+6.41=13.50____46.3____57.7
3-4-8-9____8.63+(-1.98)+6.55=13.20____45.6____56.8
4-8-9-10___9.39+(-2.17)+5.92=13.14____45.1____57.2

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
3-4-5-10______27.0____16.9
5-8-9-10______26.8____17.3
3-4-5-8_______27.8____17.6
3-8-9-10______26.4____18.7
3-4-8-9_______27.0____19.4
4-8-9-10______25.9____18.9

3-4-5-10 is best for expected averages by 0.11pt over 5-8-9-10 and is also slightly best for Win %s and very slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 8-9 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.