May 19, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by mfetchct425
0*-0  ?
47%
24%
20%
4%
3%
Total votes: 225
mrob2199
1434 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:28 AM
Wow what a hand!!! I will keep the flush today I think lol-I’ll keep the 8-9-10 run together and throw the powerful 4/5 in the crib-we still retain a magic eleven for pegging and we have some flexibility to peg offensively or defensively
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:58 AM
I threw 8-9. Is that too conventional?
My hand pegs better that way?
Ras2829
5153 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:25 AM
Well here, wan to go with the better scoring of the upper cards of sequence since my crib. So it's good bye 8-9. The difference between 8-9 and 9-10 is quite small as are many of the margins in cribbage at 4.768 31/91 compared to 9-10 at 4.758 32/91. When looking at cards of sequence J-Q, 8-9,and 9-10, they are al stacked up at 30, 31, and 32 with J-Q (not available among these) at 4.827 to own crib. So when given the choice J-Q has the higher average when compared to the 8-9, with 9-10 close on the heels. As dealer of first hand, knowing dealer needs 7 points on first hand to have 50/50 chance to win, with 16 points staring me in the face. will play safe on the pegs.
dec
6357 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:54 AM
Offensively this hand might peg better. Potential sixteen/eighteen points. We all would love to be on second street after this. Now after this cut lets see their lead and peg if this dream can come to this realization. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:57 AM
I prefer the lower card run and 8-9 to my crib. Great hand to hold, lots of hearts!
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:59 AM
I think it's pretty basic - keep a run... any run.
james500
3922 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:08 AM
3-4 from me.
Nine points in hand and a useful discard.
thelawnet
262 votes

Joined: January 2020
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:10 AM
Keep the better run intact, supporting t, toss the open straight draw to the crib
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:23 AM
Cant miss whether its 34 or 89 or 910.
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:34 AM
45 is a top 5 discard, so surprised it is not a more popular throw this morning. A common toss from an opponent is 6X. Other good options , but 45 is only behind 55, 23, 5J, and 56 on most tables.
Jazzselke says: Correction: 5X higher than 45.
dgergens says: I don't have table data like that memorized. In my mind 4,5 & 8,9 were both good discards, so it was pegging potential that swayed me to ditch 8,9.
james500 says: Hi both, hope all's well. For what it's worth Dan, I nearly chose 4-5 as you and Rob have, but burned into my memory is the advice to be aware of the strength of the 3-4 and 6-7 couplets, as described in the Cribbage Pro blog article on "intrinsic points" that JQT alerted me to. If you ignore all pairs, 5-? and combos that total 5 or 15, they are the most valuable discards that can be made. https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OOWZCrVymag/UIB3CpoavGI/AAAAAAAAB48/xNfLRby17LE/s1600/image01.png
Ras2829 says: The problem with cards of sequence is they miss often and very badly. All score a very high percentage of 0-2 cribs and the 3-4 and 6-7 are dead on one end as folks will play many games without discarding a five spot to dealer. Here are just a few of those combinations and the frequency at which they score 0-2. The 6-7 scores 0-2 33.291%; 3-4 scores 0-2 31.578%; J-Q 23.065 (this one does better because of the frequent n/d K discard and chance of matching suit of starter card); the 8/9 at 33.6%; the 10-J 28.649% (this one gets a little boost because of chance to match suit on deck); and the 9-10 is near 40% as n/d often retains J in hand just to avoid a possible extra point in dealer crib.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:35 AM
Every starter card helps the hand, except the 9, which still helps the crib. The 3 gives me 16 points.

The main drawback is that the 3-4-5, if not played smartly could lead to some unnecessary pegging by the pone. The ten can be used as an escape card to avoid a pegging battle of runners.
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:53 AM
My preference is holding a 3-4-5-8 without the flush, so am sticking with that. Still touching cards to the crib. Jazzmans's analysis of the 6 Q being tossed is interesting. Am going with more people throwing away a 9/QK, or a 1o/K and catching a pair in the crib.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 9:25 AM
If you play Cribbage long enough, you will find yourself the recipient of a six-card hand of all the same suit.

Play a few decades longer, and you might even witness a game in which during a given deal, BOTH players pick up all the same suit.

But should you continue to partake in tens of thousands of ever-increasing games, you may finally and ultimately behold a deal in which not just both players hold all the same suit, but the thirteenth and final card of that same suit is the Cut Card.

And then you'll know, it's probably time to shuffle those "new" cards.
Jazzselke says: In an ACC tourney a few years ago all 13 cards of a suit were in the 2 hands, the crib and the cut card.
Ras2829 says: While on the east coast, the Club Director of the Cameron Peggers Phil Babcock and self each held a flush with a flush in the crib in a weekly GR event. This was in one of the middle games of a 9-game card; so cards had been in use, shuffled, reshuffled many times before we picked up that deck. The 13th heart was on the deck. Some time after that I asked Hal Mueller what were the chances of that occurring and the frequency was one in several billion. Makes sense to me that would be the case, as have known of hundreds of 29-point hands over the years. In my experience this 13-card flush stands alone!
Jazzselke says: That must be the one I remember! Can't believe I forgot you were involved!
Ras2829 says: HI Jazzselke: And that would have been in 1992-1994 period as only ended up on the east coast from late 1991 thought late 1994. Come to think of it the name of the club was the Cameron Citters. They played at a military installation called Cameron Station. Think that it has since been closed and the remnants of that club plays at West Springfield near Alexandria.
thelawnet says: It should be 1 * 12/51 * 11/50 ... * 1/40, which is 51!/(39!12!) , Which is 159 billion to one.
thelawnet says: 29 point hand is 216580-1, so roughly one million times more common.
JQT says: It's interesting to note that however remote the odds of this may seem, it's still the same odds as every other specific two hands plus Cut Card that you'll ever get; including, yes, even the next hand you're dealt in the next game you play! Also, and in other words, it's four times MORE common to get all 13 cards of one suit, than it is to get all 13 cards of a pre-determined SPECIFIC SUIT! ; - )
thelawnet says: Not really, since in this case we only care about the suit, whereas for normal hands aaaa22 334444 5 is not the same as say a33445 2244aa a. But also in normal hands there isn't really a meaningful difference between any of the numerous jqqk587 hands for example that don't include a flush
duke62 says: And that folks, is why I like to play cribbage with the Jokers. It ups the chances considerable of a 13 card flush! LOL
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Tuesday 10:10 AM
I have not grand explanation for how I arrive at my choice. Just decided it was 3,4,5 and not 8,9,T that I was keeping together. Then had to choose two out of 8,9,T to put in MY crib.
cribbagepogo
3251 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 11:29 AM
Preferred 8/9 to 9/10 as people like to hoard the J.
mfetchCT425
1398 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 12:56 PM
Thanks as always to the great analysis, insight, and banter from this highly intellectual group of cribbers. Such an honor to be a part of this cribbage crew. Like yesterday (I have a late day comment there), I received this hand and game situation in an online ACC tournament. During that tournament I tossed 3-4, but after analyzing in more depth, I now like the 8-9 a little better as Ras explains so eloquently above. To tell the truth, I didn’t even think to toss 4-5 as Rob and Dan S. have advocated. It’s a very intriguing and viable choice. Thanks Both. The rankings of top 10 discards to own crib that I recall from Ras’s list are: 5-5, 2-3, 5-J, 5-6, 5-K, 5-10, 5-Q, 4-5, 7-8, 3-3. Not sure I have that order and list exactly correct. In any case, it shows the power of 4-5 to own crib. Nicely done Rob and Dan S! Thanks again all.
Jazzselke says: Your recall is perfect, just double-checked.
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 1:24 PM
There's several possible hands here but some I think we can eliminate. 3-4-5-10 (8-9) ought to be better than 3-4-5-8 (9-10) as it is a stronger discard. The only other hand that scores 9pts is 5-8-9-10 (3-4). I don't think it will be worth sacrificing 3pts to throw 5-10 but it might be worth sacrificing 2pts for the 4-5 throw. So I'll examine 3 hands;

3-4-5-10: 9pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.72) = 13¾pts

5-8-9-10: 9pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.91) = 14pts

3-8-9-10: 7pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 13½pts

Potential:

3-4-5-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 12/13/14/16pts with 2222, 333, 555, 6666, 101010 = 17 cuts. Plus 7 hearts for 1pt extra for the flush = 7/46 = 0.15pt.

5-8-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999 + 15xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 12/13/14/16pts with 555, 777, 888, 999, 101010 = 15 cuts. Plus 7 hearts for 1pt extra for the flush = 7/46 = 0.15pt.

3-8-9-10: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 10/11/12pts with 333, 7777, 888, 999, 101010 = 16 cuts. Plus 7 hearts for 1pt extra for the flush = 7/46 = 0.15pt.

Position:

As First Dealer I'll play Defense. Positional hole is 8pts but I'll try to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

With 3 low cards and a high card I think 3-4-5-10 will peg best.

Summary:

3-4-5-10 has a starting value lower than 5-8-9-10 but only by ¼pt (0.19pt according to Schell). However it has more cuts for improvement and more for 12-16pts. It also has twice as many for the maximum 16pts (333, 555 vs 555). Also it should peg better. So I'll throw the 8-9.
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 2:05 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense__Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
3-4-5-10__12.17+(-2.20)+4.58=14.55____50.4____60.3
5-8-9-10__11.91+(-2.09)+4.62=14.44____49.4____59.6
3-4-5-8___12.30+(-2.20)+3.91=14.01____50.0____59.5
3-8-9-10___9.35+(-2.26)+6.41=13.50____46.3____57.7
3-4-8-9____8.63+(-1.98)+6.55=13.20____45.6____56.8
4-8-9-10___9.39+(-2.17)+5.92=13.14____45.1____57.2

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
3-4-5-10______27.0____16.9
5-8-9-10______26.8____17.3
3-4-5-8_______27.8____17.6
3-8-9-10______26.4____18.7
3-4-8-9_______27.0____19.4
4-8-9-10______25.9____18.9

3-4-5-10 is best for expected averages by 0.11pt over 5-8-9-10 and is also slightly best for Win %s and very slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 8-9 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.