May 20, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by SallyAnn3
116*-116  ?
37%
33%
9%
5%
3%
3%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 231

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

JQT
2842 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Wednesday 3:15 AM
We enjoy a nearly 10% chance of cutting a Jack, but we don't enjoy much else here!

Pone should easily 'cover' those remaining Five Holes with First Hand Show, so our goal MUST be to peg out as the Dealer.

This means Toss (Q K) is perhaps our only reasonable attempt today, but we shall almost have to score with our first response, which can only come with a large dose of luck.

We must hope Pone is crazy enough to lead a 7 Card or an 8 Card, after which we 'nab' a (15=2) and we're off to the races!
mrob2199
341 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 3:33 AM
Time to sell out with all our non pictures to try to peg 5 before pone goes out-we will obviously have to get lucky here and have the pone hold a somewhat similar hand in order for us to peg out-the pegging could get a little nuanced tho-if pone were to lead an 8 I would match it knowing the composition of the rest of my hand-it’s highly doubtful pone would play a 6 back to us-much more likely he would match our 7 if we fifteened it,or play a 9-two plays that would basically kill our chance of winning-if pone leads a 4 play the 7 on it-he will be wary of making the count 21 with a picture and an ace could very well be dumped here-match it and hope a picture is played next which we would 31 with our 8-be very aware of these common pegging sequences and try to take advantage when you see them arise.
dec
4885 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 3:52 AM
Luck is very true when the odds are anything from 8 1-2/1 (5 points) to 35/1 (2 points) to hold them from going out. Kamikaze pegging strategy here although considered keeping a ten card here to utilize an eleven count pegging keep here. So pear,parry or thrust here on the lead here. Maybe they have a four and a six in their hand we could fill in a run on. dec
thelawnet
156 votes

Joined: January 2020

   
Wednesday 3:55 AM
the equation seems to be:

do we try to keep pone to 0 points, given 4 in his hand (12%ish)
or 1 point given 3 in hand (1.5% ish)
or 2 points given 2 in hand (6% ish)

If pone has 4 then he will be sweating a little, as he won't want to end up in the stinkhole here.

OTOH, we have to consider that around 80% of the time pone is good, and he will be trying to stop us pegging.

We need 5 points. In certain circumstances pone can get in trouble.

I just played a game where I needed 12 points as non-dealer. I had TJQK and Q was cut. I made the error (I think) of leading the queen, which pone read as me not having another, paired, and I ended up pegging just the 1 point. Pone's hand was something like 9TQK, and the J lead would have given me a run.

Anyway, as dealer today we have more opportunities to peg, but pegging 5 is always a challenge. 578 seems like the core of a pegging hand, however pone can also peg out if we are not careful, e.g., if we replied with a 5 to a pone 4, then a 6 reply from pone and it's game over.

In general dealer pegging 5+ is a 20% chance, BUT that's the general case, not for here. For example, in normal times pone might not avoid running up pegging scores, but if he is good here (which 80% of the time he is), then he will be trying to avoid us pegging anything.

So we have a bit of a conundrum in that pone's opening lead is unlikely to tell us too much. For example, if he holds 578Q, then he has only 4 points, and our best hope might be to defend. But we don't know that from the lead. Pone's lead of, say, Q, signals a likely 5 in his hand, and at least 2 points, maybe more. However the cut doesn't do much for such a hand here and it might be that we choose to defend.

This is all a lot of waffle, but it seems that if we can pair pone's lead then we should, as that brings us from needing 4 points (with 1 for last) down to 2, which doesn't look so distant. Aside from that we will try to setup a run.

As for which card to keep with our 578, I think Q has the slight edge over K in that pone is more likely to have tossed the K, and then for Q vs A we must choose the Q in that the Q only works with a Q lead, whereas the A can do things like get us to 15 or 31. The chance of a Q lead from pone is fairly high, but it's not THAT high that we can favour it over the more versatile A.

So A578 it is, pair pone's lead, assume he is good (because he probably is), try to set up some straights, by playing e.g. the 7 to reply to pone's 4, but not the 45 as that's suicidal. 15-up on a 7 or 8 lead, noting that for example 786 and we win with the 5. 7895 and we almost certainly finish short, but this a game that we should lose - it's more about how we get to win 15% of our shots rather than 10% here.
Andy (muesli64)
1750 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Wednesday 4:20 AM
As above. Thought of throwing A K to keep a play off card (Q).But no.
mfetchCT425
551 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 4:25 AM
Odds are against us here. We have try to peg out so ditch the faces and keep our low and touching middle cards. We will need a lot of luck here, but you never know. Peg everything we can and I would match vs 15-2 as Rob explains so well above.
Gougie00
4283 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 4:40 AM
The opponent is too close. I kept all my smaller cards and will try to peg out, although pegging 5 is a tall order considering the pone will not let me peg.
james500
2505 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 5:32 AM
7 and 8 cover the same leads so I don't really want both, but all X leads are covered by the 5, so I don't need the Q or K either.

A total stab in the dark today, or a learning opportunity, depending on your perspective.
Ras2829
3741 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 5:43 AM
Got to choose off., off., BOLD as limiting n/d to four points is 1 of 15. A/5 have high pegging value, 7/8 have moderate pegging value, Q/K have none. So we're set. Dealer needs to have luck/timing on side to pick off five pegs when opponent will not likely wish to peg. Needing five, have to grab the first two. Needing three pegs dealer might pass up the first two.
dgergens
589 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Wednesday 7:32 AM
Not pretty. Since I don't get to count first, gonna need some pegging flexibility. I don't normally wish ill on anyone, but today I'm hoping pone has a zero hand.
JRCeagle78
880 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Wednesday 7:33 AM
Peg, Peg, and peg again. First count by the pone will kill us anyway. This is a better pegging hand if we were the pone. Our pegging has to be more of a defensive strategy and we have to be ready for anything.
Coeurdelion
4202 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 2:45 PM
In a very poor position here. I think we need to limit Pone's pegging in case they have a low-scoring hand but try to peg 5pts to get out. I think the potential to score well could come from 5-7-8 with the K as an escape card.
HalscribCLX
3971 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 2:49 PM
At 116*-116 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the Our Peg Out %s and Pone Peg Out %s are:

Optimal_____Our Peg Out %_______Pone Peg Out %
A-5-7-Q_________9.7_________________0.7
A-5-7-K_________9.7_________________0.7
A-5-8-K_________9.6_________________0.7
A-5-7-8_________9.5_________________1.2
A-5-8-Q_________9.2_________________0.7
A-7-8-K_________8.3_________________0.1
A-7-8-Q_________8.2_________________0.1
5-7-8-Q_________7.3_________________1.8
5-7-8-K_________6.9_________________1.8
A-5-Q-K_________5.9_________________1.5
5-7-Q-K_________4.6_________________0.4
5-8-Q-K_________4.0_________________0.0
A-7-Q-K_________3.8_________________0.6
7-8-Q-K_________2.5_________________0.4
A-8-Q-K_________2.4_________________0.3

So I'll throw 8-X and keep A-5-7-X. After the A cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
SallyAnn3
69 votes

Joined: March 2020

Wednesday 6:39 PM
My vote won't show, but I held it the same way as others. Figured I just needed to peg out before she did (and I did!)