May 21, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by James500
73*-84  ?
62%
17%
6%
6%
3%
2%
0%
0%
Total votes: 228

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

Andy (muesli64)
1750 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Thursday 3:03 AM
Best compromise. We are badly behind. Cross the fingers!
JQT
2842 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Thursday 4:11 AM
We just barely have a POSITIONAL ADVANTAGE here, since we are: Dealer at or beyond the Third Street Hole 70, and; Pone is concurrently a bit more than Ten Holes shy of the Fourth Street Hole 96, the Next Positional Hole. Whew, we have a precarious perhaps, yet a SLIGHT POSITIONAL ADVANTAGE.

But it's a VERY FRAGILE BALANCE today, since we are only Three Holes beyond target, and Pone is only Two Holes from having attained the NEXT target! One small hiccup on either side of the board today and all sorts of chaos may ensue.

Therefore, we wish to approach this in a very cohesive and balanced manner. If there is one discard I have written the MOST about, it would HAVE TO BE that most-popular of those 'Three Cousins' (as I am wont to call them) which include: Toss (3 4), Toss (6 7), and Toss (J Q).

But we have all kinds of confusion and complications 'thrown in' by James500, because that's the way he likes to roll! We have a FLUSH present, which entails Toss (4 7), which is not going to win any Beauty Contests, but is not altogether terrible at all.

Oh, and for those who occasionally regret NOT SEEING A FLUSH until they have already made their Discard Decision, there is one simple way to fix this problem: ALWAYS LOOK FOR A FLUSH, and you'll NEVER MISS A FLUSH! It's really that simple.

And we maybe have a temptation to look at Toss (2 K) and Toss (4 4) as well, and maybe even Toss (6 K) and Toss (2 6), too, all of which involve beginning with a 'static' Four Points overall. I don't really relish any of these alternate solutions as much as I like Toss (6 7) or the FLUSH idea, so I'm going to eliminate them from consideration.

That leaves Mr. FLUSH with Keep (2c 4c 6c Kc) and a 'suited' Toss (4 7), which we must compare and contrast with Keep (2 4 4 K) and Toss (6 7), our lovely aforementioned 'Crib Cousin' with all of her charms. As I said, while Toss (4 7) isn't completely terrible, it does 'chime in' with a Crib Value below Four Points. That's a key consideration.

One of the many beauties of Toss (6 7) is that it's the highest-valued Discard Choice we can make that initially begins with ZERO POINTS! In fact, if you wish to commit just one fact to memory today, let it be the fact that Toss (6 7) has a Crib Value or average that beats many PAIRS, discards such as Toss (K K), Toss (T T), Toss (Q Q).

Additionally, while Toss (6 7) is not better-than, it even competes very well with both Toss (9 9) and Toss (A A)! And also, just for future reference, its profile 'over the board' is quite similar: Toss (6 7) is riskier than many of those PAIRS just mentioned, and even a few more!

If we ignore pegging, we might Toss (2 K), or Toss (4 4), or Toss (4 7) 'suited' today, and even Toss (6 K) and Toss (2 6) might be on the RADAR! Oh, what a tangled web James500 does weave for us today! Toss (4 4) has an attractive Crib Value, but much of it comes from the fact that it's a PAIR and thus already contains Two Points; but let's remember, those Two Points exist whether we retain the two 4 Cards in our Hand or in our Crib!

This is the 'magic' of Toss (6 7): its strength comes not from where it starts off, but in its potential for future GROWTH. But is it 'Good Enough' to 'make up for' a few points in 'static' value? That's quite a bit of 'leaning' to do, even on the charming Toss (6 7) 'cousin' we have all come to know and love. It can easily overcome One Point of differential in 'static' value, but Two Points is a VERY TALL ORDER.

It hurts to think of rejecting Toss (6 7) here, but I think it may be comparable to Toss (2 K), which no doubt may have lots of adherents today. In the end, however, I'm going to rely on Mr. FLUSH and Toss (4 7), the 'suited' duo that hopefully doesn't 'fizzle' on us! The FLUSH should allow very good flexibility during the pegging, as Pone is most likely to be lobbing cards that differ from those ranks that we already hold.
Gougie00
4283 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Thursday 4:18 AM
I needed to connect here and get back in the game. I swung and missed. Better luck next time.
mrob2199
341 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Thursday 4:20 AM
We need a decent hand to get into position on 4th street-obviously this hand will need a good cut to achieve that goal-another benefit of the 4467 keep is the possibility of trapping a 5 for some much needed pegging help
dec
4885 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Thursday 4:45 AM
This is more about playing to win then nickel-diming our way to start preventing the skunk. Need a big cut and might peg our way into some more points here. dec
Rosemarie44
1598 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 4:50 AM
I believe this is the best hand to hold for a maximum of 16 possible.
thelawnet
156 votes

Joined: January 2020

   
Thursday 4:58 AM
4467 has potential both for our hand and for pegging . The flush would be nice at a more comfortable spot for us, which this isnt
HfxKen
52 votes

Joined: February 2020

   
Thursday 5:20 AM
Was going to hold the flush but thought the hand I kept had most chance of improving with the cut.

If pone tossed some low cards, crib could hold a nice surprise .
mfetchCT425
551 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Thursday 5:24 AM
At this position I think this hold gives us the best chance to get back in the game in case we get that ‘gut’ cut 5, or even a 4. Some pegging potential as well. Considered he flush but not at this position. Also not the most ‘pretty’ flush to hold.
JRCeagle78
880 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Thursday 5:44 AM
With this discard and starter card I still have a chance at the flush in the crib. Even if that does not happen K-2 is a better option than other choices.

With this hand the pegging will be either hit or miss. The pone needs to give us a little assistance. Trapping a 5 is remote, but a possibility nonetheless.

I looked at the flush but 4-7 discard was too far from optimal.
Jazzselke
1480 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Thursday 6:43 AM
Not crazy about the 4-point flush, as we would be throwing 47, while holding a second 4. Potential with 2446 and 2447, but 6K and 7K are horrible. So 2K it is.
james500
2505 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Thursday 6:44 AM
I really wanted to choose 6-7, it's a useful discard and allows me to keep the 2-4-K sixteen, but chickened out and chose the more conventional 2-K sigh.

Only cuts of 3 and X fail to improve my hand, but cuts of 3 and K will help the crib, and a Jack cut gives me two points anyway. Just 10s and Queens to avoid then.
wasa
1612 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Thursday 7:02 AM
I like to flush and I cannot lie
You other brothers can't deny
When I see 4 cards all of the same suit
It makes me think other tosses are moot

(with apologies to Sir Mix-a-Lot)
SallyAnn3
69 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Thursday 7:59 AM
Mesemerized by the flush again. It's all trash, no matter what I throw, and could get a fill in run
horus93
724 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Thursday 8:16 AM
With bad cards in this position we should play offense unless we cut a 5
Ras2829
3741 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Thursday 10:44 AM
Nothing to defend here; so it's off., off., optimal. Note the downshift in strategy once seeing the starter card, knowing that RAS has only four points, and likely not much in crib. N/D needs 11 points to deal from 4th street CPZ (95-99). As mentioned by others will try to trap a five with the 4-6. On a X-point lead play the 7, count will generally advance to 27, score the 31-2 with the four of hearts (fake the flush). Dealer now has 4-6 remaining after having seen two X-pointers. Dealer will often end the pegging battle with 15-5 and last card. That's 8 unanswered pegs. That's the plan and that will often work once seeing a X-pointers as a lead. If we can pick 2-4 points out of crib (cribs average 4.8), will need an average hands on the next deal. Admittedly there is not much difference in holding the flush. My scant empirical evidence suggests less than .2 of a point favoring the 4-4-6-7. The reason for that slight edge is not the discard as the 4-7 3.611 wins out over the 2-K at 3.568. Holding 4-4-6-7 has the edge because of the higher pegging potential and the better potential hand score.
dgergens
589 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Thursday 12:09 PM
Would have violated the time rule for deciding today. Gamble on the cut or gamble on the crib. The possibilities for the cut edged out my faith in the crib, assuming pegging results would be nearly same for both hands.
RubyTuesday
432 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Thursday 12:10 PM
I failed to spot the flush, but even if I had I think I’d still have thrown 2K.
Coeurdelion
4202 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Thursday 3:01 PM
I think it will be between the flush, 4-4-6-7 (2-K) and 2-6-7-K (4-4):

2-4C-6-K: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.72) = 8pts

4-4-6-7: 4pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.52) = 7½pts

2-6-7-K: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = 7¾pts

Potential:

2-4C-6-K: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 44, 5555, 666, 777, 9999, KKK = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 8/11pts with 3333, 5555, 9999 = 12 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

4-4-6-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 44, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 8/9/12pts with 44, 5555, 777, 8888 = 13 cuts.

2-6-7-K: Improves with 222, 3333, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999, KKK = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 6/7pts with 222, 5555, 666, 777, 8888 = 17 cuts.

Position:

We're 3pts past second street positional hole and Pone is 2pts short of where they would like to be so I'll tend towards a more Defensive approach.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 2-4C-6-K and 2-6-7-K will peg better and the flush will be harder to read.

Summary:

The flush has the highest starting value by ¼/½pt and has most cuts for improvement. It also has 12 cuts for 8/11pts which compares quite well with 13 for 8-12pt with 4-4-6-7 and 17 cuts for 6/7pts for 2-6-7-K. The flush also has an extra 0.20pt for a club cut. So I'll throw the 4-7.

HalscribCLX
3971 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 3:57 PM
At 73*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone
Defense__Hand__Pegs__Crib__Total___W3 %____W4 %
4-4-6-7___6.70+(-1.93)+3.50=8.27____11.5____24.9
2-4C-6-K__6.54+(-1.98)+3.64=8.20____10.3____24.6
2-6-7-K___4.13+(-2.20)+5.52=7.45_____9.5____24.2
2-4-4-7___6.35+(-2.09)+3.12=7.38_____8.2____22.7

Defense_____L3 %____L4 %
4-4-6-7_____42.2____66.4
2-4C-6-K____43.0____67.3
2-6-7-K_____41.5____67.6
2-4-4-7_____42.3____69.7

4-4-6-7 is best for expected averages by 0.07pt over the flush and is also slightly better for both Win %s and Loss %s which take account of board position and in this critical situation are important. So I'll select 2-K to discard.

After the 10C cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense).