May 22, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
33-32*  ?
57%
29%
10%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 219

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

thelawnet
156 votes

Joined: January 2020

   
Friday 3:14 AM
The four points for the flush really offset the sting of tossing a 15 to pone. Holding one of the 6s pone would like to boost this hand is a bonus here for us.

What are the alternatives? The very conservative 9q, which cuts our hand value by 4, but at least reduces the chances of a.blow out crib a lot.

Or jq which can also be very expensive for us, but it tries to buy 96654, 6669, and various other hands which might make sense at 80-100*, but not so much here.

So I like the flush here and the pegging
james500
2505 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Friday 3:19 AM
Aiming for hole 43+, so considering gross points rather than net points.
Good cut. It helps me but won't help my discard.
5 lead. 50% chance of 25/2, and maybe the 6 card allows me to score 31/2 also.
mrob2199
341 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Friday 3:49 AM
Too much value in the flush here,with any picture cut giving is a minimum of 12-the 6/9 discard is somewhat mitigated by the 6 we hold in our hand-still a little early in the game to play pure offense or defense-especially with the 1 point difference as of now
Rosemarie44
1598 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Friday 4:10 AM
It pays to Flush. Start with 8 points before the cut, with a maximum of 15 possible. Target of 43 -44 next hole.
dec
4885 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Friday 4:33 AM
At a point of the game where I can look at this hand and the next one to play where I can risk 6-9 knowing I will have next crib for me to maintain my position play. I will say for the lead most likely a Jack lead just for lucks sake I think someone would pair my Queen lead with the cut in play. dec
Gougie00
4283 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 4:40 AM
Yoda taught me to always keep 8 points in the hand when I can, so I toss the 69 reluctantly. Lead the 6?
horus93
724 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Friday 5:01 AM
This is a very offensive position, -1/+14
dgergens
589 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Friday 5:12 AM
The net points are the same, and I do have one of the other sixes. In final analysis, I will go with the conventional 'pays to flush' wisdom that has been imparted to me through this forum. Unlike the last few days where there was compelling enough reason(s) to not flush. Today, the hope for double run if I held 5,6,6 together was not compelling enough.
Jazzselke
1480 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Friday 5:20 AM
Potential to get to Hole 45 or so. 69 about the same danger as JQ, and we have some negative delta holding another 6.
mfetchCT425
551 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Friday 6:10 AM
Agree with all above. Go aggressive to try and get to 2nd street positional zone. Touching pairs with the flush gives us all kinds of possibilities for a big hand. Not as worried about 6-9 to their crib as some other dangerous throws. I would lead the Q.
JQT
2842 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Friday 6:21 AM
As I mentioned yesterday, Toss (J Q) is one of those 'cousins' like Toss (3 4) and Toss (6 7) that begins with ZERO Points on either side of the board, but has a Crib Value that exceeds many PAIRS.

This means, even when compared to Toss (6 9), Toss (J Q) is really not a whole lot safer. It could in fact be more dangerous, and today it would come at an unacceptable price.

Thus, we absolutely want to retain the FLUSH here, and we wish to do so most importantly because, above all, we desire to become the Next Dealer at or beyond Hole 44. And after Toss (6 9), we have our best chance to do this.

I like leading the Jack from this bunch, as it prevents us from getting our Jack 'trapped' later; and given our POSITION, it might even cause a Dealer who holds a Jack to hesitate to PAIR us.
SallyAnn3
69 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Friday 7:19 AM
I concur...
JRCeagle78
880 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Friday 8:20 AM
Unlike yesterday's flush, this keep is much more palatable. The 6-9 isn't the discard I would like, but it is the best that can be determined.

Since you will not be hearing from me until Tuesday, I wish all a happy and healthy weekend.

In this time of Social distancing, this would be a great time to remember what this weekend is all about. Please remember all those military personnel who have given the ultimate sacrifice, both for our freedom, and for those who were oppressed across the world. May there sacrifice remain a beacon for us all.

Memorial day is a time for remembrance.
wasa
1612 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Friday 8:38 AM
I still say yesterday's flush was the way to go. Today is no different. I have flush on my mind. Almost always pays to flush (except for when it doesn't... try explaining that to new cribbage players!)
Ras2829
3741 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Friday 9:19 AM
Sorry this was too easy. At hole 33, it's off., off., off., so as to reach a minimum of 2nd street CPZ (43-47). Why not push deep into that zone? Will miss you for a few days as am going to defy travel restrictions (leave the proximity of our dwelling for non-essential reasons). Going to visit son, daughter-in-law, grandchildren, and great grandchildren. Son and wife live at the base of Mt. Emily, part of NE Oregon Blue Mountain chain and to their east is the Eagle Cap Mountains, referred to as the Little Alps. Very beautiful setting framed by unsettled weather this weekend it appears with damper, cooler conditions than normal. Back late Monday! Pause to remember those who have given the ultimate to preserve our way of life. Good thing to do every day. All organized Memorial Day events have been canceled in this area. We now exceed 1,000 deaths in a population of 8,000,000. Think that figures out to .0028% death rate. The confirmed infection rate is .025%. We've had 3 deaths in this county of 90,000 with 35 confirmed cases of which 21 have recovered. Somebody will have to do the math on that. Yet we've been in near total lockdown for about 70 days. A very high percentage of businesses will not re-open and will not be an attractive prospect for a new owner.
joekayak
1089 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Friday 10:39 AM
OFF OFF to get to 43 and beyond. Easy 9-6 discard.
RubyTuesday
432 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Friday 11:08 AM
I’m with most of you here, the flush seems best for so many reasons.
Coeurdelion
4202 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 7:01 PM
Three likely hands I think - 5-6-6-9 (J-Q), 5-6C-J-Q (6-9) and 5-6-6-J (9-Q):

5-6-6-9: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.46) = +¼pt

5-6C-J-Q: 8pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.26) = +1¾pts

5-6-6-J: 4pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = 0pt

Potential:

5-6-6-9: Improves with 3333, 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 999 + 14XxS = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% to 12/16pts with 4444, 66, 7777, 999 = 13 cuts.

5-6C-J-Q: Improves with 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 999 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 11/12/13/14pts with 4444, 555, 7777 + 14xXs = 25 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 2pts extra for his nob and the flush = 2x9/46 = 0.39pt.

5-6-6-J: Improves with 3333, 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 999 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 8/10/14pts with 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 999, JJJ = 19 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

Position:

We're 11pts short of second strret positional hole and if Dealer scores the average 16pts they will be 12pts short of where they would like to be.

Pegging;

Each hand has a magic eleven but I think the flush will peg best playing Defense.

Summary:

5-6-6-9 has the most cuts for improvement and the best maximum but the flush has 25 cuts for 11-14pts and also an extra 0.39pt. for a club cut. The flush should peg well too so I'll throw 6H-9.
HalscribCLX
3971 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Friday 7:04 PM
At 33-32* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense__Hand__Pegs_Crib____Total___W6 %____W7 %
5-6C-J-Q__11.09+1.89+(-5.75)=7.23____24.7____49.7
5-6-6-9____9.13+1.52+(-5.58)=5.07____19.2____42.4
5-6-6-J____7.20+1.33+(-3.80)=4.73____14.4____37.3

Offense_____L6 %____L7 %
5-6C-J-Q_____14.9____23.6
5-6-6-9______14.9____28.3
5-6-6-J______11.5____29.4

The flush is best for expected averages by 2.16pts and is very much best for Win %s and appreciably best for Loss %s. So I'll select 6H-9 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll lead the J and play Offense:

Lead________________Our Pegging Pts.
J_________________________1.85
Q_________________________1.81
5_________________________1.06
6_________________________0.96