May 23, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by kelliher
17*-21  ?
50%
22%
17%
9%
1%
Total votes: 194

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

dec
4885 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Saturday 3:09 AM
So its a Saturday in May? The discard keeps the main hand with six thru nine cuts that end up with five up to nine points. There is eleven count in hand might help in the defensive pegging. Mostly Q-5 could end up with six thru dozen plus points. Happy Memorial Day weekend thank you to all that served and protected this country. dec
james500
2505 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Saturday 3:22 AM
I thought about Q-A for a little while, but wasn't totally convinced by it. Q-5 instead then.
Andy (muesli64)
1750 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Saturday 3:57 AM
5 - Q preferred. Marginally better than 7-8.
thelawnet
156 votes

Joined: January 2020

   
Saturday 4:18 AM
X5 is a classic toss to your own crib and it's particularly attractive when the x5 lacks further support. Pone often tosses X to our crib, and there are plenty of cuts to help.

78 is a nice enough toss in that it's a 15 and can meet a 6 or 9 in the crib, but x5 can often run into 3 more X cards for a hand of 18 points

A278 doesn't seem too great for pegging though, as a 78 to the same from pone is likely to end up with more points for him than us, and we don't have a 14/13/12/11 couplet to 15 off an opening low card
Rosemarie44
1598 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Saturday 4:56 AM
I think this is the best we can do.
scottcrib
263 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Saturday 5:17 AM
Tossed 7-8 since every cut either helps my hand or my crib. Also, it's early, so pone may feel like gambling with a 6-8 toss.

Off to north Georgia for a vacation in the woods. See you in a week!
mfetchCT425
551 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Saturday 5:39 AM
Like the 5-Q slightly better than the 7-8 in our crib.
JQT
2842 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Saturday 6:01 AM
The value of Toss (7 8) and Toss (5 X) to our Own Crib is a matter of perhaps one-tenth of a point in difference, and so I have often attributed the preference for one of these discards over the other as mainly a matter of style.

Even regional differences are said to exist, in which the Central and Midwestern areas of North America are said to have recorded a slight bias for Toss (7 8), and I have been curious about the origins of this behavior for a few decades.

RAS and I discussed this curious facet of Cribbage at length back in 2013, and if you wish to delve into this topic a bit further, you can point your browser back seven years and two months and read our ideas on this interesting topic. REF: https://www.dailycribbagehand.org/show.php?date=2013/03/16

Anyway, in spite of the three-card "Magic Eleven" inherent in (A 2 8) today, I'll Toss (7 8) regardless, as these days I am leaning toward the value of holding onto the 5 Card in the Hand for pegging, along with the power and strength of those "Touching" cards of (7 8) in the Crib.

Next year, maybe I'll switch back to my former Toss (5 X) ways, who can be sure?
Gougie00
4283 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Saturday 6:17 AM
when in doubt, Face-Five.
SallyAnn3
69 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Saturday 6:55 AM
I echo those who made the same choice....
Jazzselke
1480 votes

Joined: March 2009

Saturday 7:45 AM
Close call with this desultory hand. Usually prefer 5X in the crib but better pegging potential with this arrangement.Could pair a face-card lead, even if tripped can get a 31. Then fifteen in the next series.
horus93
724 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Saturday 8:42 AM
A five in the hand is worth way more than the 0.2 points by which this hand is weaker for pure hand+crib averages.
Coeurdelion
4202 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Saturday 3:49 PM
I think there's three likely keeps - A-2-7-8 (5-Q), A-2-5-Q (7-8) and 5-7-8-Q (A-2):

A-2-7-8: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 8½pts

A-2-5-Q: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 8½pts

5-7-8-Q: 4pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.23) = 8¼pts

Potential:

A-2-7-8: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 5/6/7/8pts with 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 21 cuts.

A-2-5-Q: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 6/7pts with 222, 3333, 555, QQQ = 13 cuts.

5-7-8-Q: Improves with 222, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 7/8pts with 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, QQQ = 20 cuts.

Position:

We're nearly at first street positional hole but Pone is 3pts past it so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think A-2-7-8 should peg best.

Summary:

A-2-5-Q has the most cuts for improvement but A-2-7-8 has 31 cuts for 5-8pts and should peg best so I'll throw 5-Q.
HalscribCLX
3971 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Saturday 3:52 PM
At 17*-21 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

______________Our
Offense__Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W7 %____W8 %
A-2-5-Q___4.48+3.39+6.60=14.47____13.4____32.1
A-2-7-8___4.48+3.28+6.66=14.42____12.8____31.2
5-7-8-Q___6.48+3.48+4.12=14.08____11.8____29.7

Offense______L7 %____L8 %
A-2-5-Q_______14.8____34.2
A-2-7-8_______15.1____35.3
5-7-8-Q_______15.1____36.5

A-2-5-Q is best for expected averages by 0.05pt and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 7-8 to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
dgergens
589 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Saturday 5:50 PM
Starting points are all the same so seems need to do something that will improve crib potential. Seems to come down to a personal preference since both 5Q and 78 have good upside potential. HalsCrib numbers seem to bear out how close the 2 options are in point value.