June 26, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Jazzselke
70*-72  ?
56%
15%
12%
10%
2%
1%
0%
Total votes: 219
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:00 AM
We are dealing right atop the Third Street 'par' Hole 70, so it's 'Business as Usual' as we venture forth. We're certainly in the Driver's Seat here.

When I see a 4-5-6 RUN in my hand as the Dealer, I typically look for reasons to 'bust it apart' rather than retain it.

And here, it appears that we have a wonderful solution after Keep (A 6 9 9) and Toss (4 5). This seems to both Maximize our Hand, as well as Optimize our Crib, and it doesn't get any better than this.

Granted, this is subjective, and thus is purely a matter of style, and so if Toss (9 9) is your kind of thing, you have my blessing. But stuffing stodgy PAIRS into our Own Crib is simply not my way of playing Cribbage.

The Keep (A 4 5 6) Hand does often peg well, but it's a Pone sort-of hand, and not the optimum Dealer Hand; I much prefer Keep (A 6 9 9) with its three-card 'Sweet Sixteen' (the former hand indeed does have a four-card 'Sweet Sixteen).

I think we can peg more tentatively with the Keep (A 6 9 9) hand, but I'm not too sure that I shall convince too many people today. But nobody can argue that Toss (4 5) shall produce a much, much better Crib!
Eolus619 says: JQT..I thought about discards A-4, 9-9 & 4-5...went 1-4....I am not much for pairs to my crib if it can be avoided ..after reading your analysis on pegging potential I see the point you make and I have decided I have a lot left to learn about cribbage
Jazzselke says: JQT, I have to ask why you look to break up 456 as the dealer?
Mark6 says: JQT , I was wondering about this exact Question too and wanted to write down the answer in my Notes from this Blog
JQT says: When I 'exaggerate' and say that I look to break up a RUN that contains a 5 Card, it's not that I don't like the RUN, but I think that when we are the Dealer, there are opportunities to benefit from looking outside the "normal" hand. This alternative of Toss (4 5) today is perhaps going to yield a similar overall total Hand plus Crib, so while it fits my description, it's probably not the best example. Of course, the 4-5-6 RUN intact is worth Five Points, so it's seen as being almost "glued together" by most players. Today's hand might barely qualify as a hand with such a RUN that we can break up profitably. Or maybe it will not. A better example in which we might benefit from Toss (4 5) is probably (A A 4 5 6 8). But hands with a RUN such as 3-4-5 and 5-6-7 are the main candidates in which we should look for ways to *maybe* get that 5 Card into our Crib. And so, today's puzzle brings up an example in which I'm likely "stretching my logic" to the extreme, and as many indicate, (A 4 5 6) is not a bad pegging hand on either side of the board. Maybe a better way to state my thought would be to say, "Don't hold a RUN just for the sake of going for a Double RUN, even if (and sometimes especially when) it has a 5 Card in it; often, placing the 5 Card into the Crib will yield just as much or more after many Cuts." Again, hands with 3-4-5 or 5-6-7 are more likely candidates than 4-5-6, hands in which you can find a solid reason to do this. Today's hand, I think we're sitting "right on the fence."
Mark6 says: Thanks much for the detailed explanation , just a Recreational Player trying to upgrade .Amazing to me how much knowledge the Advanced Players here have of the Game and thanks to all
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Friday 3:37 AM
Don't see any face cards so decided to start with 6 points in the hand and two in the crib. After the starter we have four more points. A-4 is valued at 5.43 and 9-9, 5.16 points.
Rosemarie44 says: Yes, A-4-5-6 is a stronger hand than my choice but wasn't happy about a pair of nines in the crib.
mrob2199
1407 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Friday 3:38 AM
Nice puzzle Dan-sometimes people overlook things in cribbage-such as the pegging power of 456 as the dealer-this hand very often pegs 5 and sometimes more-so keeping this combination and stashing a pair of nines in the crib could very easily get us to around hole 90 with any bit of luck-
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:55 AM
I had this hand last week during play in similar positions. I believe the pegging went six to one in my favor. My hand counts totaled twenty with a four cut. Yes I think I will play it this way. Offense. dec
Eolus619 says: Thanks for, pointing out the pegging potential ..much left for me to learn about this aspect of the game
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Friday 4:13 AM
Don't mind being in the minority when I've got good company.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Friday 4:14 AM
I thought about 4-5. I decided on 99. A456 is an offensive attack hand, and I'll play it that way.
thelawnet
262 votes

Joined: January 2020

 
 
 
Friday 4:27 AM
According to https://cliambrown.com/cribbage/?data=AH4C5S6D9C9S there is little between tossing A4, 45, and 99.

However, tossing the 5 as dealer will weaken out pegging. So I think it's between a4 and 99.


E.g. with xxxx then we can score 15-2 and 31-2 with either hand

With xxx5 we can score x-5-5-6-4-a

So I think a456 wins
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Friday 4:27 AM
I'd like to try 4-5.

9 reply to a led X can be from a 9-6-A sixteen:
X(10)-9(19)-5(24)-6(30)-go-A(31/2).
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Friday 4:44 AM
Throw 9-9. More points.
mfetchCT425
1382 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Friday 5:30 AM
Very rarely do I break up 4-5-6 and as Rob mentions above and as Dan C attests to in real play, it can result in some nice pegs for us as dealer. 4-5 may be tempting in the crib but I don’t necessarily like the makeup of A-6-9-9 as I feel it’s taken some potential away from developing a mega hand with many cuts leaving us with just 6 in the hand.
Nice puzzle Dan, and I enjoyed our match last night in the semifinals. Hope you ended up with a win.
Jazzselke says: Yes, great to play you Mike, and I was lucky with some key hands. Alas they fizzled in the finals, I never had a chance against Roger Baxter of Colorado.
wasa
2991 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Friday 7:02 AM
Today is a learning day for me. For years I would keep maximum hand points and retain 4-5-6-9 tossing the A-9. But I wondered if that was the best. In a real game, I try to limit myself to 15 seconds of pondering before tossing but today I took probably a minute or so to consider tossing the 9-9, A-4, or the 4-5 instead of my default 9-9. Decided I liked the 5 in my crib so tried the 4-5. Really curious what HAL will recommend.
wasa says: Sorry - above should be "... default A-9" not "9-9" as I default to keeping the 7 points in hand
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Friday 7:03 AM
A456 is known as a great pegging hand for the pone, but can do well for the dealer also. One notable scenario: 8-6-7-5-go-4-A. 11 pegs to 3!!! That being said, throwing 45 is very tempting here, which is why I posted the puzzle. But the pegging prospects outweigh the benefits of 45 IMO.
SallyAnn3 says: Well done last night in GC--almost! You've been grabbing some nice IRP's lately. :)
SallyAnn3
882 votes

Joined: March 2020

Friday 7:04 AM
One of my favorite holds as dealer, plus a pair to the crib. Why break up 4-5-6?
SallyAnn3 says: A-4-5-6 I swear..I barely skimmed reading comments. Not fast enough, apparently. I guess I need to swoop down and post my comment for my choice to show.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Friday 7:26 AM
The pegging potential for this hand is too much to ignore. The A-4 also gives us the opportunity for an extra 2 points should an X starter card be displayed. It also extends the starter assistance to include the 8.
zeke76
1367 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Friday 9:23 AM
More agreement today than I expected.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Friday 10:14 AM
RAS loves the 4-5 discard to own crib as it works so well with those favored 6-X discards. The potential hand value and pegging values off set the greater crib value of 4-5 toss by about 1 full point based on my scant emprirical evidence. The A-4-5-6 gains value from any cut other than a deuce. The A-6-9-9 gains no direct value from 2, 3, 4, 7, 10, J, Q, K. Am choosing off., off., off at all decision points. If choosing defense, the choice would be the same. The A-4-5-6 is one of the best "sweet 16's", has 2-card and a 3-card "eleven from heaven". Those can be applied offensively or defensively as pegging strategy. Over=riding consideration in my choice is that am dealing form3rd street CPZ (69-73) and want to have the next deal in 4th street CPZ (95-99). So will move down the board boldly. Bold movement sometimes rattles the opponent as well. Go for it! If you would liek to know more about Critical Position Zones, email raswino29@outlook.com.
RubyTuesday
897 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Friday 1:03 PM
9 9 to my crib, thank you me.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Friday 2:36 PM
I think it's between A-4-5-6 (9-9) and A-6-9-9 (4-5) or perhaps 5-6-9-9 (A-4):

A-4-5-6: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.16) = 10¼pts

A-6-9-9: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 12½pts

5-6-9-9: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 11¼pts

Potential:

A-4-5-6: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/12pts with 3333, 444, 555, 666, 99 + 16xXs = 31 cuts.

A-6-9-9: Improves with AAA, 555, 666, 8888, 99 = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 10/12pts with 555, 666, 99 = 8 cuts.

5-6-9-9: Improves with AAA, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 99 + 16xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 9/10/12pts with AAA, 444, 666, 7777, 99 = 15 cuts.

Position:

We're at third street positional hole and Opponent is 2pts past. I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think A-4-5-6 will be by far the best pegger.

Summary:

A-4-5-6 has the lowest starting value by up to 2¼pts but it has the most number of cuts for improvement and 31 for 8-12pts. It also should peg very well so I'll throw the pair of nines.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Friday 2:38 PM
At 70*-72 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

______________Our
Offense__Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
A-4-5-6___8.85+3.74+4.86=17.45____13.2____48.3
5-6-9-9___8.33+3.17+5.43=16.93____10.7____47.8
4-5-6-9___9.85+3.78+3.04=16.67____10.7____45.9
A-6-9-9___7.22+2.33+6.35=15.90____10.3____46.4

Offense______L3 %____L4 %
A-4-5-6_______8.0_____29.1
5-6-9-9_______5.9_____27.4
4-5-6-9_______6.4_____29.2
A-6-9-9_______5.0_____27.0

A-4-5-6 is best for expected averages by 0.52pt and appreciably best for Win %s but slightly worst for Loss %s. So I'll select 9-9 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.