Sunday 3:16 AM

We need Fourteen Points as Pone, and we were dealt a Cool Dozen: that is, if we are willing to depart with two 5 Cards! Goodness!

Or, we could struggle onward with either Six Points with Keep (4 4 4 5), or Four Points with Keep (4 4 5 5), and still give away the almost-as-dangerous either Toss (4 5), or Toss (4 4), respectively. Gracious!

While we're giving the Dealer a GIFT, why not make it "special" and Toss (5 5)? After all, any of these discards is likely to help the Dealer defeat us, and holding a Dozen and only needing to peg Two Holes 'SOMEHOW' (but how, really?!) is probably our best bet. (Oh, it's a bet, you say?!)

To learn HOW, please send only three payments of $39.95 to "How Exactly," P.O. Box 4444, Howtown, Newvania 44455

Cutting a Trey or a 7 Card might have helped.......

   

Sunday 3:19 AM

Believe it's now or never as dealer requires only 11 points and we need 14 points. Those fives have to go! This deal is the only chance we've got.

   

Sunday 3:31 AM

I'll lead the 4 of clubs.
Important to slow play this hand, to give the impression we have a choice to make with every card we play.

   

Sunday 3:58 AM

   

Sunday 4:00 AM

Will today be unanimous ?

   

Sunday 4:30 AM

Keeping 4 x 4 and pegging only 1 won't get us there. Unless a 7 or 3 are cut But if we keep 3 x 4 and a 5 then we need a cut of a 3 or a 6. Same odds. Nicely contrived puzzle??!! I'll go for more pegging flexibility! Minimal!

   

Sunday 4:52 AM

options today:

4444
wins with a cut of 3 or 7
otherwise we need to peg 2. but how!?!

Possibilities:

4-7-4 for 15-2 and we win, either on the first 'go' or the last

4-8-4-n-4-go-4 where n could be 7 (no cards below 4) 6 (no cards below 5) 5 (no cards below 6) 3 (no cards below 8) 2 (no cards below 9)
or similar

4-x-4-x-go-a-a
and then we play 4-4 and win

So while we have only 8 cuts that win and a horrible hand for pegging that elusive 2, we CAN score 2 in various ways, especially if dealer holds 7s

This adds around the equivalent of 7 (15%) more cuts to win to take into account our chance of scoring 2 in various ways.

4455

this sends a poor 44 to dealer's crib. thus he's likely home.
with 36 we are home
with 5 we need to peg 4
with a2tjqk we need to peg 6
with 789 we have no chance

4445
with 36 home
with 27 2
with 5tjqk 6
with a89 no chance

It seems 4445 is the best second candidate. We are home with the same 8 cuts, and have a slightly better hand for pegging, with 8 cuts where we need 2.

However as we've observed above, while 4444 is bad for pegging, we realistically have around '7 cuts' worth of chance to peg 2. That's a lot better than needing to peg 2 with 8 cuts. I'm not sure what the chance of pegging 2 is with 4445, but no way is it as high as 7/8.

So 4444 it is.

   

Sunday 5:29 AM

Keep the dozen.. first there are still eight cuts to hope for. Dealer only needs eight more points between the three fractions odds not to good to hold them down if we discard the nickels. The goes are a possibilities .. how about the thirty ones? and perhaps still might play a seven off our four lead. Playing to win here. dec

   

Sunday 5:30 AM

This is a hand I had on eCribbage. I tossed the 55. The starter didn't help. The dealer held 4 faces and I didn't peg a point. So, I am wondering whether 4445 is actually the better hold?

Where did June go? It was pretty much the same as May. Quarantine and retirement are pretty much the same thing. It was a bad month for statues.

   

Sunday 7:43 AM

Pat dozen. Can't break it up here to hold half the points with the dealer so close.

   

Sunday 7:50 AM

Sure, 5-5 almost guarantees dealer will count out if we don't first, but 4-4 would too. Would be a tougher call at 107-105* or something maybe.

   

Sunday 10:12 AM

Yes well I was wrong today.

   

Sunday 3:50 PM

Lead the 4.

   

Sunday 4:25 PM

4-4-4-4 has 8 cuts that will get us out 3333, 7777 and of course guarantees we get to within 2pts of home.

4-4-5-5 has 8 cuts to get us out 3333, 6666 and AAAA, 55 and 16xXs = 22 cuts for 8/10pts

4-4-4-5 has 8 cuts to get out 3333, 6666 eight more for 12pts (7777, 2222) and 55 + 16xXs = 18 cuts for 8pts.

I'm not concerned with putting 5-5 in opponent's crib so I'll keep the dozen.

   

Sunday 4:26 PM

At 107-110* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Win/Loss 5s are more important in this position:

Offense__________Win %
4-4-4-4__________26.3
4-4-4-5__________25.6
4-4-5-5__________23.9

After the K cut I'll, of course, lead a 4 and play Offense.