June 29, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by thelawnet
77-67*  ?
38%
38%
32%
32%
6%
6%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 230
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2243 votes)

Monday 3:15 AM
Tossed the safer of the two choices that I see today, A-T (A-3). This hand has more cuts for improvement to maximum of 8 points.
Rosemarie44 says: The heavy rain woke me earlier than usual this morning.
Mark6

Joined: June 2020 (702 votes)

Monday 3:22 AM
mrob2199

Joined: February 2009 (1700 votes)

Monday 3:23 AM
No matter what we do here we will not be getting onto 4th street so the best defense will be our goal here-the Ace -10 discard with a 4 already in our hand fits the bill here-a number of cuts also hit our 3489 hold-a 2,3,or 7 cut give us at least 7 and the hand could peg fairly well-lead the 3 and peg defensively
Mark6

Joined: June 2020 (702 votes)

Monday 3:24 AM
Keeping the Run , leading the 4 , my opponent never pairs is 4 lead
thelawnet says: I usually pair the 4, as it's the most likely to be a singleton of any card led in cribbage. When the cut matches pone's lead, that makes it even more likely to be a singleton.
Mark6 says: Yes thanks . I Play against the same person every day and she rarely pairs the 4 unless she has two . She’s strong at Cards so I don’t point that out
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6858 votes)

Monday 3:26 AM
Since the maximum on several choices of discards is eight points I selected to go for wide on this one. This is a true ten point lead as far as par goes. Goal to reach ninety five for us is eighteen, for them is twenty eight. Game management to me would be defense on discard and pegging. Sine we have five points now I will lead the three here for a check possibility play. dec
thelawnet

Joined: January 2020 (262 votes)

Monday 3:30 AM
I believe this is what I tossed. Then led A hoping for AX4 for 2.
dgergens

Joined: January 2018 (940 votes)

Monday 4:06 AM
Yes, sacrificing a known point. But I think this is better for pegging and balking.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6174 votes)

Monday 4:39 AM
I chanced the A3, looking for an 8,9,10. Lead the 8 and try to muster a few points.
mfetchCT425

Joined: February 2009 (1632 votes)

Monday 5:01 AM
I think we should protect our advantageous board position today and discard defensively with this hand. So it’s A-10 for me and keep the pair of touching cards. There are a few cuts that will improve this hand to an average hand or close to average (2,3,4,7,8). Would lead the 3 as we have the 9 to counter if it’s paired.
Gougie00 says: advantageous and a 5 cut for the dealer probably means disadvantageous for me for the next deal.
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4348 votes)

Monday 5:18 AM
Every cut from a 2 through to a 10 is helpful.

A wee bit of negative delta, (reduced availability of helpful cards), working against my discard of 10-A. Having 3-4 in my hand reduces the likelihood of Dealer having discarded 2-3 or A-4, similarly the presence of 8-9 reduces the likelihood of them finding an 8-9-10 run when the crib cards are turned over.

3 lead, covered by the 9.
Eolus619

Joined: June 2020 (1763 votes)

Monday 5:26 AM
Many good reasons for holding this hand already given. As James said...cuts 2-10 are very helpful. With this score I play defense and try to maintain my advantage as I move toward 95.
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4485 votes)

Monday 5:43 AM
It’s all been said above. Lead the three.
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2867 votes)

Monday 6:07 AM
Ditto, agree, ibid.
JRCeagle78

Joined: June 2016 (1054 votes)

Monday 6:32 AM
Most cuts, etcetera, etcetera - blanking the crib, etcetera, etcetera - highest potential etcetera, etcetera - pegging etcetera, etcetera. Since everybody stated what I wanted to say.....
horus93

Joined: December 2017 (1330 votes)

Monday 7:28 AM
+17/-3, I'm going to throw a balk if I reasonably can.
Andy (muesli64)

Joined: August 2009 (2340 votes)

Monday 1:27 PM
We are in front so worst option for oppo. A - 10.
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes)

Monday 3:01 PM
I think it's between 4-8-9-10 (A-3) and 3-4-8-9 (A-10):

4-8-9-10: 3pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.07) = -2pts

3-4-8-9: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.48) = -2½pts

Potential:

4-8-9-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 6/8pts with 7777, 888, 999, 101010 = 13 cuts.

3-4-8-9: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010 = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 5/6/7/8pts with 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 7777, 888, 101010 = 24 cuts.

Position:

We're 7pts ahead of 3rd street positional holeand Opponent is 3pts short. I'll play Defense to try to maintain that advantage.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 3-4-8-9 will peg better.

Summary:

4-8-9-10 is better for starting value by ½pt and it has more cuts for improvement although it only has 13 cuts for 6/8pts and 3-4-8-9 has 24 cuts for 5-8pts I think it will have the edge. So even though I think 3-4-8-9 may peg a little better I'll throw the A-3.
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4519 votes)

Monday 3:03 PM
Toss (9 T) seems tempting, but the position calls for Toss (A T). And holding onto that RUN? I would not place it among the top three choices today! I might lead the 8 Card, just to say that I did.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5706 votes)

Monday 3:05 PM
At 77-67* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and win/Loss %s are:

_______________Dlr's
Defense__Hand__Pegs___Crib____Total_____W3 %___W4 %
3-4-8-9___4.54+(-2.80)+(-4.26)=(-2.52)___6.8____45.6
A-4-9-10__4.72+(-2.65)+(-4.61)=(-2.54)___6.3____45.0
4-8-9-10__5.24+(-2.91)+(-4.90)=(-2.57)___6.8____45.2
A-4-8-10__4.46+(-2.52)+(-4.51)=(-2.57)___5.7____44.3

Defense_____L3 %___L4 %
3-4-8-9______5.5____29.7
A-4-9-10_____5.6____30.1
4-8-9-10_____6.4____31.0
A-4-8-10_____5.8____30.6

3-4-8-9 is best for expected averages by 0.02pt and is slightly best for Win %s. It is also slightly best for Loss %s so I'll select A-10 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the 4 and play Defense:

Lead________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
4_________________(-2.07)
3_________________(-2.09)
8_________________(-2.72)
9_________________(-2.83)
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes)

Monday 3:43 PM
Dealer shot of 3rd Street CZ (69-73) and that makes the desion much easier. Will lead the defensivce 4 (although the trey is tempting. Am playing def., def., def. all the way. Had I been playing offense, would have led the 8 as suggested by JQT. The "sweet-16" offers anopporutnity to close the count at 31 if dealer plays cards that total 15.
JQT says: It's interesting to note that when we add (3, 4, and 9) we get 16, and so leading from any of these might net us (31-2) against a Dealer with a "Nickel and Dime" (5 Card alongside any Ten Card or "X"), however; if we presume Dealer has or may respond with simply any Ten Card or "X," then we might instead wish to lead from our "Twenty-One" trio or (4, 8, and 9)! To wit: 8 (8) X (18) 9 (27) "go" 4 (31-2). Both the 4 Card and 9 Card are in these two scenarios, and thus it probably makes the most sense to lead one of these two cards, but the above description of my 8 Card Lead idea does "aim" for a (31-2) as well as maybe allowing us to negotiate a 5 Card Trap, so I didn't pull it out of this air. In summary: any group of cards that adds up to Eleven, Sixteen, or Twenty-One can seek to trap those Nickels and/or Dimes across the board.
JQT says: this air > should read > thin air
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Good comment, anlysis ,and insight. As you probably noted I love the pegging game and if choosing offense would have led the 8.
HfxKen says: Ras, why wouldn't lead the 3? As the 9 covers the chance the 3 gets paired?
HfxKen says: *you lead the 3*