Monday 3:15 AM

Tossed the safer of the two choices that I see today, A-T (A-3). This hand has more cuts for improvement to maximum of 8 points.

   

Monday 3:22 AM

   

Monday 3:23 AM

No matter what we do here we will not be getting onto 4th street so the best defense will be our goal here-the Ace -10 discard with a 4 already in our hand fits the bill here-a number of cuts also hit our 3489 hold-a 2,3,or 7 cut give us at least 7 and the hand could peg fairly well-lead the 3 and peg defensively

   

Monday 3:24 AM

Keeping the Run , leading the 4 , my opponent never pairs is 4 lead

   

Monday 3:26 AM

Since the maximum on several choices of discards is eight points I selected to go for wide on this one. This is a true ten point lead as far as par goes. Goal to reach ninety five for us is eighteen, for them is twenty eight. Game management to me would be defense on discard and pegging. Sine we have five points now I will lead the three here for a check possibility play. dec

   

Monday 3:30 AM

I believe this is what I tossed. Then led A hoping for AX4 for 2.

   

Monday 4:06 AM

Yes, sacrificing a known point. But I think this is better for pegging and balking.

   

Monday 4:39 AM

I chanced the A3, looking for an 8,9,10. Lead the 8 and try to muster a few points.

   

Monday 5:01 AM

I think we should protect our advantageous board position today and discard defensively with this hand. So it’s A-10 for me and keep the pair of touching cards. There are a few cuts that will improve this hand to an average hand or close to average (2,3,4,7,8). Would lead the 3 as we have the 9 to counter if it’s paired.

   

Monday 5:18 AM

Every cut from a 2 through to a 10 is helpful.

A wee bit of negative delta, (reduced availability of helpful cards), working against my discard of 10-A. Having 3-4 in my hand reduces the likelihood of Dealer having discarded 2-3 or A-4, similarly the presence of 8-9 reduces the likelihood of them finding an 8-9-10 run when the crib cards are turned over.

3 lead, covered by the 9.

   

Monday 5:26 AM

Many good reasons for holding this hand already given. As James said...cuts 2-10 are very helpful. With this score I play defense and try to maintain my advantage as I move toward 95.

   

Monday 5:43 AM

It’s all been said above. Lead the three.

   

Monday 6:07 AM

Ditto, agree, ibid.

   

Monday 6:32 AM

Most cuts, etcetera, etcetera - blanking the crib, etcetera, etcetera - highest potential etcetera, etcetera - pegging etcetera, etcetera. Since everybody stated what I wanted to say.....

   

Monday 7:28 AM

+17/-3, I'm going to throw a balk if I reasonably can.

   

Monday 1:27 PM

We are in front so worst option for oppo. A - 10.

   

Monday 3:01 PM

I think it's between 4-8-9-10 (A-3) and 3-4-8-9 (A-10):

4-8-9-10: 3pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.07) = -2pts

3-4-8-9: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.48) = -2½pts

Potential:

4-8-9-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 6/8pts with 7777, 888, 999, 101010 = 13 cuts.

3-4-8-9: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010 = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 5/6/7/8pts with 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 7777, 888, 101010 = 24 cuts.

Position:

We're 7pts ahead of 3rd street positional holeand Opponent is 3pts short. I'll play Defense to try to maintain that advantage.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 3-4-8-9 will peg better.

Summary:

4-8-9-10 is better for starting value by ½pt and it has more cuts for improvement although it only has 13 cuts for 6/8pts and 3-4-8-9 has 24 cuts for 5-8pts I think it will have the edge. So even though I think 3-4-8-9 may peg a little better I'll throw the A-3.

   

Monday 3:03 PM

Toss (9 T) seems tempting, but the position calls for Toss (A T). And holding onto that RUN? I would not place it among the top three choices today! I might lead the 8 Card, just to say that I did.

   

Monday 3:05 PM

At 77-67* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and win/Loss %s are:

_______________Dlr's
Defense__Hand__Pegs___Crib____Total_____W3 %___W4 %
3-4-8-9___4.54+(-2.80)+(-4.26)=(-2.52)___6.8____45.6
A-4-9-10__4.72+(-2.65)+(-4.61)=(-2.54)___6.3____45.0
4-8-9-10__5.24+(-2.91)+(-4.90)=(-2.57)___6.8____45.2
A-4-8-10__4.46+(-2.52)+(-4.51)=(-2.57)___5.7____44.3

Defense_____L3 %___L4 %
3-4-8-9______5.5____29.7
A-4-9-10_____5.6____30.1
4-8-9-10_____6.4____31.0
A-4-8-10_____5.8____30.6

3-4-8-9 is best for expected averages by 0.02pt and is slightly best for Win %s. It is also slightly best for Loss %s so I'll select A-10 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the 4 and play Defense:

Lead________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
4_________________(-2.07)
3_________________(-2.09)
8_________________(-2.72)
9_________________(-2.83)

   

Monday 3:43 PM

Dealer shot of 3rd Street CZ (69-73) and that makes the desion much easier. Will lead the defensivce 4 (although the trey is tempting. Am playing def., def., def. all the way. Had I been playing offense, would have led the 8 as suggested by JQT. The "sweet-16" offers anopporutnity to close the count at 31 if dealer plays cards that total 15.