Thursday 3:14 AM

Could we have a closer game than this? With 4 DIV 46 equals 0.087 or nearly a 9% chance of a Jack Cut, this could get rather tight.

We would like to retain a hand as Pone that gives us the best chance of leading without getting scored upon, and typically this means leading and Ace, Deuce, Trey, or a 4 Card.

We were only dealt one such card, the Lone Deuce, and it's virtually our only shot at a "safe" lead. The Dealer has such a high BIAS to retain low-ranking cards in these scenarios, that I have had some amazing WINS by NOT leading a "small" card.

But we only get an "edge" from leading a higher-ranking card if we are dealt some help in the form of additional cards, and in today's hand we really have none. For example, if we had (2 5 5 6 6 9), then maybe something such as a 6 Card Lead would make sense, especially if the Cut were a 6 Card or a 9 Card!

Specifically, I'd rather lead a "middle" card with Four Loser Replies here than lead a "small" card with only Three Loser Replies, and this has to do with the enormous BIAS for Dealer to retain the better ("small") pegging cards.

Since we have none of that sort of help available today, we MUST look to lead that Deuce, as it has LESS THAN HALF as many Losing Replies as ANY OTHER CARD. So, we must now look to which other three cards we wish to retain alongside the Deuce.

I am a fan of "Safety in Numbers" during Defensive Pegging Scenarios, such that if we have a PAIR, and can get one of such cards to pass muster and not be scored upon, then the other one should be safe as well. But I'm not so sure this will work too well with two 5 Cards.

Still, if no Jack is Cut, we would enjoy seeing the Dealer PAIR any card we have as long as we have retained the other card for PAIRS Royal and the WIN. But this arrangement brings up a certain dilemma, in that we might be better off with NONE of those 5 Cards, as the likelihood that the Dealer was even dealt any 5 Cards has already been reduced by HALF, since we hold the remaining half of them!

And yet I'm not going to recommend that we risk holding a Zero-Point Hand today, either! Imagine holding Dealer to Three (or fewer) pegs, only to lay down NOTHING! That would be too sad! And so, we hold the Deuce, and we hold at LEAST one 5 Card. We're half way there!

After leading that Deuce, our odds of scoring (15-2) or a PAIR are fairly good with all of these cards, so I believe either (2 5 6 T) or (2 5 6 Q) could each work here.

If we needed to peg Two Holes (or more), I would think the "cost" of holding BOTH of the 5 Cards is too high, as it would seem to reduce our chances of scoring on our second card played by at least one third. But since we only need One Point to WIN today, the chances of sneaking in a "go" become much greater if we retain our four lowest-ranking cards.

Therefore, let's Keep (2 5 5 6) and Toss (T Q), and after that tragic Jack Cut, we'll proceed to lead the Deuce as planned. We can claim Victory IF: Dealer has NO Deuces, and, if Dealer responds with any of these Fourteen Cards: (55, 666, 7777, 8888). But if nobody scores during the first 'volley' of pegging, our duplicate 5 Cards should be the "safe" play.

   

Thursday 3:15 AM

B***ocks!

With Dealer 4 away, had planned to lead my 5. I'll have to lead my 2 now.

   

Thursday 3:26 AM

I decided to hold one of each card. JQT's lead of the 2 sounds good to me.

   

Thursday 3:49 AM

Thanks Rosemarie for Positing ( from Ras ) yesterday Table on Card Pegging Values - very useful and easy to remember

   

Thursday 3:59 AM

I like the 5s because with 2 of them, 75% of the time dealer wasn't dealt one. This compares to 35% for the 2/6/t/q and 44% for other denominations.

Having two of a card means that with 4 to defend then if he doesn't have one the first time, he won't have one the next time either.

So by keeping two we substantially reduce the number of cards we are at risk from, considering that we win this game if dealer fails to peg 4, so it's a defensive spot. Consider also that as the lead we are on the defensive by default so it's more about reducing risk than trying to peg ourselves

If we consider companions then the ten cards are quite unlikely to be paired as dealer won't keep any given ten card very often, and as above he probably doesn't have a 5 either.

We can't really count on typical plays like xx6-go-5 because dealer's hand has nothing at all to do with scoring points so he'll toss out the points from jqqk23. So we shouldn't count on high cards in dealer's hand. But maybe they can help to advance the count.

After a ten lead dealer would pass 15 likely so that's not great. A 6 lead might do better but dealer scores with 6 or 9.

So we keep the 2 and lead it, probably it won't be paired and win with 5678 replies.

   

Thursday 4:04 AM

Jack isn't my friend. Lead the 2 and hope to survive.

   

Thursday 4:22 AM

With dealer 4 out we would like to win on his first play.so this hold gives us the best chance-we lead the Q-which is not a probable hold for the dealer,and win with a 2,3,5 or 6 response-the 2 lead is a bad one here-if it’s matched-and dealer would surely keep it if it were dealt to him-we are in horrible shape the rest of the hand trying to dodge the pegging

   

Thursday 5:37 AM

I would tend to believe out of six cards they will either keep a pair or high percentage pegging cards. After The Jack cut lead the Queen. dec

   

Thursday 6:25 AM

Holding the 2 & 5 seemed straight forward.....then befuddled by what two after that. Know enough now to be on the “D” I can see the reasoning about leading the 2 or the Q. It is the Q for me .

   

Thursday 7:54 AM

Like this hold and the Q lead. The J cut really hurt.

   

Thursday 10:54 AM

I kept one of each. And hoped for the best!

   

Thursday 11:13 AM

No doubt the dealer is feeling pretty darn proud of himself after that cut. How quickly pone went from thrill of victory to jaws of defeat. I had not accounted for the possibility of a J cut, else I think I might agree with holding 2556. My thoughts went like this. As dealer that can't afford to give me as single go, I would hold low cards, and a variety for pairing. So my thought as pone was to get up in the 20's and slip the 2 in for a go. Lead the 10, pair the 5 if by chance dealer makes 15. Worst case, no pegs for me, then score first to win. -- Seems to me those holding the 2556 are making a little bit bigger gamble that dealer won't have a 5 than I am with 256X, but now the J was cut, do I really gamble and still lead the 10, or do I lead the 2?

   

Thursday 2:13 PM

One of each...need to hold 2 points...Q farther away from the other cards to be an out card...leading the 2

   

Thursday 2:20 PM

Since the Jack was cut, will lead the two. If that had not been the case,would have led the Q. Discarded the 10 as it is more likely with dealer needing four pegs at time of discard to connect to 8-9. lf dealer did not pick up a fistful of small cards, would likely retain mid cards rather than X-pointers, making my Queen a good escape card to advance the count. Thee exception might be X-point pairs. Often dealer, needing pegs, will hold X-point pair if lacking cards of low or mid rank. If I get past the lead, my chances improve considerably. Another fine end-game puzzle which we have come to expect from andy (Muesli64).

   

Thursday 2:57 PM

We only need to peg 1pt but more importantly we have to stop Dealer pegging 4pts. I'll try 2-5-6-10.

   

Thursday 3:08 PM

At 120-117* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the Dealer Peg Out %s and Our Peg Out %s are:

Defense_____Dlr Peg Out %_____Our Peg Out %
5-6-10-Q________9.3_______________76.8
2-5-10-Q_______11.3_______________68.7
2-5-6-10_______16.2_______________68.8
2-6-10-Q_______17.3_______________72.5
5-5-10-Q_______23.1_______________54.2
2-5-5-10_______25.9_______________51.4
5-5-6-Q________37.9_______________35.0
2-5-5-6________49.9_______________32.1

5-6-10-Q has the lowest chance of Dealer Pegging Out and the best chance of Our Pegging Out I'll select 2-5 to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the 10 and play Defense:

Lead_____Dealer's Pegging Pts.___Win %___Loss %
10_________________(-0.72)_______14.6____32.2
Q__________________(-0.76)_______15.6____34.2
6__________________(-0.77)________7.9____36.6
5__________________(-0.77)________4.2____37.7

The 10 lead is slightly lowest for Dealer's Pegging Pts. and the Q lead is best for Win %s The 10 is also Lowest for Loss %s so I'll lead the 10.