July 12, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by zeke76
6*-19  ?
74%
17%
5%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 190
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 3:24 AM
I believe today it pays to Flush. A well disguised hand and a 5 in the crib.
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Sunday 3:26 AM
King reply to a led X can come from my K-A eleven, or my K-6 sixteen, should Pone play an X or 5 as their second card.

Plenty of helpful cuts.

Guarantee of 2+ in the crib.
Mark6
702 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Sunday 3:34 AM
Didn’t miss the flush today
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:36 AM
Quite an intriguing puzzle today from zeke76, with an interesting arrangement of cards to have been dealt on *either side* of the board!

As we are the Dealer, I think the obvious candidates are Toss (A 2) or Toss (2 5), and we should avoid choices such as Toss (2 K), unless we were in fact Pone here.

I am drawn toward Toss (2 5) right off the bat, as the FLUSH contains Six Points from the get-go, with at least Two Points to follow in the Crib, preceded by at least One Point during the pegging.

It seems to be a 'toss-up' on what to toss today, and it might simply be a matter of style. I believe we might have more flexibility during the pegging with the FLUSH, and thus I'll Toss (2 5).

But I see absolutely nothing wrong with those who might wish to try Toss (A 2) here as well. After that 9 Card Cut, it's still not too clear: those who do Toss (A 2) will hope that Pone 'coughed up' a Trey into Our Crib.

The fact is, Pone is *crushing* us positionally thus far in this game, and while we would like to make this situation better, it is still quite early in the game; and so the key is to NOT make it even worse!
JQT says: This card arrangement could still be a good puzzle whether we are Dealer OR Pone, and remain quite a good puzzle from a large number of differing relative scoring positions! That makes this puzzle rather unique, I think.
JQT says: I tend to lean toward DEFENSE when I'm 'on the fence' in Cribbage, because from all my studying of This Game of Ours, I have tended to find that DEFENSE will often 's-l-o-w ... d-o-w-n' a game, while OFFENSE tends to 'speed/it/up.' Remember the old Aesop Fable of the Tortoise and the Hare: The reason the Tortoise catches up to and beats the Hare is NOT because the Tortoise speeds up; it is because (during many rests and naps), the Rabbit slows down...
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:44 AM
Defense is the call here with the flush. Keep opponent back in the pegging and hopefully get a key cut for the hand and crib. dec
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 4:42 AM
I'll keep the 456 intact. I can account for only 10, so its obnoxious offense.
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 5:49 AM
Dealing at 6 holes with opponent already at 19, it's off. off., off. for me, aand play on the lead. That determines holding 4-5-6-K. Based on my scant empirical evidence the greater potential hand score offsets the greater crib value of the 2-5 discard by a bit and 4-5-6 offers some potential peg points not present with the flush. Had I been choosing a defense pegging strategy, the call would have been much closer.
glmccuskey
4102 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Sunday 5:58 AM
I’m certainly going to keep the 4-5-6 together. After that I like A-2 to the crib. Offense to the lead?
Jazzselke
2587 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 6:22 AM
Powerful 456 in the hand; of the crib combinations with a 5, 25 not one of my favorites. So goodbye A2.
Jazzselke says: A456 close second choice.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 7:28 AM
Can't afford the luxury of the flush. Well behind. Got to go after the double run.
thelawnet
262 votes

Joined: January 2020

 
 
 
Sunday 7:55 AM
We need max net points. 456k will maximise that in hand, crib and pegging
Mark6 says: Got a chuckle out of your use of ‘ bigly ‘ describing the Q 5 toss yesterday . I see that word often in Comments in the other Math Puzzle I do daily at predictit.org , Trading Cash on the Future Political Narrative
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Sunday 8:22 AM
If you have your double run goggles on and that's what you are hoping for, I cannot deny that would be a good thing to get. But for me today, two things. The flush has a starting value of 8 instead of 7, and I (believe I) have found the mantra 'It pays to flush' to be true in the past 2 years. Perhaps it's self fulfilling validation, but it sure does seem like a flush pans out so many times. Looking forward to the numbers.
JQT says: It's interesting to see that even after those precious Nine Cuts (444, 555, 666) do indeed occur (which should be almost 20% of the time), ignoring the pegging for a moment, if we Keep (4 5 6 K) and Toss (A 2), we would obtain an Average Hand of 14.67 Points for those Nine Cuts, and a Crib Value of 4.23 Points, for a Combined Total of 18.90 Points; if instead we Keep (Ac 4c 6c Kc) and Toss (2 5), we would obtain an Average Hand of 11.11 Points for those Nine Cuts, and a Crib Value of 5.44 Points, for a Combined Total of 16.55 Points. This illustrates that even under the very best of circumstances, hitting that Best of All Double Runs with any of those fortuitous Nine Cuts, it only boosts our combined total (sans pegging, as I stated earlier) by about 2.35 Points.
thelawnet says: For me it's simple and we should maximise the average of hand + crib + pegs minus pone's pegs, and whether we consider double runs or whatever other route it's simply the average of all positive outcomes
JQT says: I know this is a bit lengthy, but hey, it's already the afternoon, and Halscrib has spoken, so let me offer my very strong opinion on just one factor regarding today and yesterday and how I believe one should FOCUS one's energy when studying this Grand Game of Cribbage: Here is where a very discernible view of the probabilistic nature of Cribbage rears its head. If we are to assume that the number-crunching ability of the computer was accurate both yesterday and today (I have no problems doing this, as these are both games that are either on First or Second Street), then yesterday, it was wrong to Keep (4 4 5 5), and today, it was wrong to retain the FLUSH. But the difference yesterday between the Top Choice of Keep (2 4 4 5) and that Wrong Choice of Keep (4 4 5 5) is precisely 2.18 Points; meanwhile, the difference today between the Top Choice of Keep (4 5 6 K) and that Wrong Choice of Keep (Ac 4c 6c Kc) and Toss (2 5) is precisely 0.37 Points. Therefore, if let's say we encoded two side-by-side slot machines with an algorithm using these two different puzzles, and also encoded each point to be worth a dollar, then each "pull" of today's "wrong" choice would "cost" us around Thirty-Seven Cents, with every "pull" of yesterday's "wrong" choice would set up back Two Dollars and Eighteen Cents, or nearly SIX TIMES as much! And so while it's fun to compare this wonderful 4-5-6 RUN with the FLUSH, an error today might save us a Quarter and a Dime and Two Pennies (or about one-third of a Dollar, or 0.37 Points, you get the picture), while yesterday's mistake is costing us Two Bucks and Change (or nearly Two and a Quarter Points)! And yet we'll easily prefer to debate today's possibly "prettier" puzzle much more readily (and here I am doing so myself) than look at yesterday's perhaps seemingly simpler puzzle. But for SIX TIMES the gain, it should be obvious which discarding decision should get more of our attention. This does NOT in any way mean to diminish today's puzzle over yesterday's puzzle: they are both very good puzzles. I only am attempting to draw some focus of the need for which particular 4-5-6 "pattern" (or possible pattern) we are likely to misread and suffer the worse the ramifications to because of the complexity of the probabilities involved. I see this happen all the time in the arena of financial investing, where people will argue the nuances of some Penny Stocks or some 'about-to-go-bankrupt' Company, and meanwhile they ignore the fact that nearly half a dozen other companies are now, or soon will be, valued at over a Trillion Dollars. It's human nature to "fuss over tiny details" while decisions that often have huge implications go entirely unnoticed. With only so much time and energy to study, it's best to expend such time and energy where it can reap the most reward for us, so try not to be 'drawn in' by the "fancy lights" of the slot machines in life; and in Cribbage, this translates very often to NOT becoming too obsessed with these chances to "become rich" with such handsome-looking 4-5-6 Hands!
dgergens says: JQT, going back to your first comment, I want to say two things. 1) I don't have the math skills, data at hand, nor the time during a cribbage game to make that level of an assessment. Today I acknowledged that 456K was a good hand, but chose the flush because of the 1 extra starting point and good personal experience with flushes. I knew they were both good hands, as HalsCrib verifies by the small point difference. 2) That being said, since you did the math, it seems you made the argument to keep 456K. It's funny to hear you say "...only boosts...by about 2.35 points". I say funny, because there have been discussions in the past where someone has made the point of how important even 0.5 point advantages are over time. 3) THAT being said, I'll have to flesh out and try to understand your second comment and 37 cent analogy to see if you get a pass for choosing the flush after you yourself found a 2.35 pt difference.
wasa
3019 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Sunday 11:24 AM
i like to flush. bonus is the 5 in my crib. what's not to like?
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Sunday 12:17 PM
I think there are three likely keeps - 4-5-6-K (A-2), A-4-5-6 (2-K) and A-4-6-K (2-5):

4-5-6-K: 7pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.23) = 11¼pts

A-4-5-6: 5pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.52) = 8½pts

A-4-6-K: 6pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.45) = 11½pts

Potential:

4-5-6-K: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, KKK = 12 cuts.

A-4-5-6: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 93.5% up to 8/9/12/14pts with 3333, 444, 555, 666, 9999 + 15xXs = 32 cuts.

A-4-6-K: Improves with AAA, 444, 555, 666, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 10/12/13pts with AAA, 444, 555, KKK = 12 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

Position:

It looks as if we might have been First Pone and have scored a lowly 6pts while Dealer scored 3pts above the average at 19pts. Our position is dire so I'll be playing Offense.

Pegging:

The best pegging hand is A-4-5-6 with 3 low cards and a middle card with a 3-card magic eleven. The flush should peg well too as it also has a 3-card magic eleven and will be hard to read.

Summary:

The flush has the best starting value by ¼pt over 4-5-6-K but 4-5-6-K has more cuts for improvement and 12 for 11-16pts. The flush has an extra 0.20pt for a club cut and also should peg well. A-4-5-6 will peg very well but has a low starting value and although it has 32 cuts for 8-14pts I don't think it will catch up the 3pts. 4-5-6 has the best maximum with three cuts for 16pts (555) but I think I'll go for the flush so I can put the 5 in my box. 2-5 is not one of the better scoring x-5 discards but even so it may just hit opponent's discard.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 12:20 PM
At 6*-19 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

______________Our
Offense__Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W8 %____W9 %
4-5-6-K___9.76+3.70+4.03=17.49____18.1____11.6
A-4-6-K___8.57+3.15+5.40=17.12____17.4____11.2
A-4-5-6___8.93+3.74+3.37=16.04____15.2_____8.3

Offense______L8 %____L9 %
4-5-6-K_______50.3____66.8
A-4-6-K_______50.8____67.5
A-4-5-6_______54.9____72.0

4-5-6-K is best for expected averages by 0.37pt and is slightly higher for Win %s and slightly lower for Loss %s. So I'll select A-2 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Sunday 1:54 PM
Because I always hold it this way :)
HfxKen
887 votes

Joined: February 2020

 
 
 
Sunday 6:55 PM
Too far behind at this point. Could get 16 with a cut.