July 28, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Benramey78
29-19*  ?
86%
86%
9%
9%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 211
Benramey78Only because the game had just started i discarded the king and 5, but if we were towards the end and I had a chance of losing I would have discarded the king and 9
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6866 votes)

Tuesday 3:21 AM
I think it would have to be pretty decisive positions on fourth street not do this discard still. So probably about seventy five percent of the game I would do this one. Seven lead here. dec
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2251 votes)

Tuesday 3:24 AM
Early in the game, going with expected average and tossing 5-K to dealer. Hand starts with 12 and has a maximum of 24.
thelawnet

Joined: January 2020 (262 votes)

Tuesday 3:29 AM
this hand is far too strong to worry about tossing 5K to dealer's crib.
mrob2199

Joined: February 2009 (1705 votes)

Tuesday 3:36 AM
Time to deliver a knockout punch with a middle card cut-lead the 7 and dump the other 7 if dealer makes it 17-we might get lucky and trap a 10 with our remaining 8-9
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4355 votes)

Tuesday 3:57 AM
12 points gets me into position.
Andy (muesli64)

Joined: August 2009 (2343 votes)

Tuesday 4:58 AM
Got to be. Benefits so outweigh the disadvantages.
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4525 votes)

Tuesday 5:43 AM
The only thing worse than putting a 5 Card in the Enemy Crib is doing ANYTHING ELSE today.

We double our Hand to a Dozen Points prior to the Cut, and in doing so, Toss (5 K) might 'cost' us about Three Points 'over the board,' a very good investment.

Even if that King were another 5 Card, we should *still* Keep (7 7 8 9) and Toss (5 5). Do not fear the 5 Card: in many instances, it is just another card.
JQT says: For example, Toss (9 K) has a Crib Value of about 4 Points, while Toss (5 K) has a Crib Value of about 7.3 Points. Thus, it's only a difference or additional 'cost' of about 3.3 Points.
Eolus619 says: What would you discard if the score was 105-100* ?
JQT says: Needing 16 Points to win, it would be difficult to pass up those Dozen Points dealt to us, with many Cuts that win, since even if we fall short, we can probably peg a few as Next Dealer. Only if score were perhaps tied around 100 Points would a defensive discard begin to be an attractive choice.
Eolus619 says: Thanks
mfetchCT425

Joined: February 2009 (1638 votes)

Tuesday 5:47 AM
Be aggressive here. I see no reason to break up a 12 hand to avoid the 5-K discard at this board position. We should be in nice position with the crib on next deal.
SallyAnn3 says: Congrats on GOLD last night in ACC tourney on eCribbage, Mike :) (We still have to convince Rob to grace us with his presence)
mfetchCT425 says: Thanks Sally! Had some nice cards last night. Yes, be fun to see Rob online.
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1196 votes)

Tuesday 6:10 AM
I’m happy to throw 5K to dealer’s crib today.
JRCeagle78

Joined: June 2016 (1054 votes)

Tuesday 6:19 AM
Sometimes, the best thing to do is the one thing you don't want to do. I'll feel that inner happiness when the dealer responds to my 7 lead with a Queen, no preference as to suit.
Eolus619

Joined: June 2020 (1769 votes)

Tuesday 6:24 AM
See all the above........plus ...the #1 goal for me is to start next hand in the 40s as dealer. So toss K-5.
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2870 votes)

Tuesday 6:38 AM
I've said a few times: "You can't throw your good hands away". Dependent on position of course.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6180 votes)

Tuesday 7:10 AM
Gotta give yourself a chance to win
Mark6

Joined: June 2020 (702 votes)

Tuesday 7:20 AM
Chance to grow a nice hand into a Monster
SallyAnn3

Joined: March 2020 (1263 votes)

Tuesday 8:05 AM
No fear...early in the game....cushioned lead. As one or my mentors says above "You can't throw your good hands away!" See Dan, I DO listen lol
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3397 votes)

Tuesday 10:16 AM
Surprised not 100%
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes)

Tuesday 10:43 AM
At hole 29 need 14 points to reach 2ndstreet CPZ 43-47) for upcoming deal. So it's off., off., off, lead a 7 and take any pegs offered. Understanding of positional requirements makes this an easy decision as to pegging strategy, hand to retain, discard to make, and card to lead. Is there a place on the board where I would choose defense and toss 9-K? Yes - if shoulder to shoulder at hole 93-97 as n/d. In such case, minimizing dealer progress down the board would be the my major consideration.
Ras2829 says: BTW RAS would not play this hand if needing 5-6 holes to win with first count. Holding 7-8-9-K or 7-7-8-K then would be preferable. Of course, if you're playing for a 24-hand pot, you might keep 7-7-8-9 anywhere on the board.
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes)

Tuesday 1:46 PM
I think it's a straight choice between 7-7-8-9 (5-K) and 5-7-7-8 (9-K):

7-7-8-9: 12pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.25) = -4½pts

5-7-7-8: 8pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.03) = -4pts

Potential:

7-7-8-9: Improves with AAAA, 6666, 77, 888, 999, 10101010 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 16/20/21/24pts with 6666, 77, 888, 999 = 12 cuts.

5-7-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 3333, 555, 6666, 77, 888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 10/12/14pts with 3333, 6666, 77, 888, 999 = 16 cuts.

Position:

We need 15pts to reach 2nd street positional hole so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

Both hands will peg well but I think 5-7-7-8 will peg slightly better.

Summary:

5-7-7-8 has a starting value ½pt more than 7-7-8-9 and it has many more cuts for improvement and 16 cuts for 10-14pts. 7-7-8-9 obviously starts with 12pts and although it only has 20 cuts for improvement it has 12 cuts for 16-24pts. As we're aiming at 44pts if we start with 12pts and peg 1 or 2pts we're almost there. So In this situation I think I'll keep the dozen . If we do get a cut for a big hand then we'll be in a strong position.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5711 votes)

Tuesday 1:48 PM
At 29-19* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense__Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W7 %____W8 %
7-7-8-9___14.39+1.17+(-7.49)=8.07____52.5____59.0
5-7-7-8____9.22+1.26+(-3.95)=6.53____36.0____52.3

Offense_____L7 %____L8 %
7-7-8-9_____25.3____25.8
5-7-7-8_____17.8____27.9

7-7-8-9 is better for expected averages by 1.54pts and is very much better Win %s. 5-7-7-8 is signicantly lower for Loss %s because of the safety of the 9-K compared to 5-K but even so I'll select 5-K to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead a 7 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Pts.
7__________________1.32
8__________________1.04
9__________________0.85