July 28, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Benramey78
29-19*  ?
86%
9%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 211
Benramey78Only because the game had just started i discarded the king and 5, but if we were towards the end and I had a chance of losing I would have discarded the king and 9
dec
4954 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 3:21 AM
I think it would have to be pretty decisive positions on fourth street not do this discard still. So probably about seventy five percent of the game I would do this one. Seven lead here. dec
Rosemarie44
1643 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 3:24 AM
Early in the game, going with expected average and tossing 5-K to dealer. Hand starts with 12 and has a maximum of 24.
thelawnet
226 votes

Joined: January 2020

   
Tuesday 3:29 AM
this hand is far too strong to worry about tossing 5K to dealer's crib.
mrob2199
397 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 3:36 AM
Time to deliver a knockout punch with a middle card cut-lead the 7 and dump the other 7 if dealer makes it 17-we might get lucky and trap a 10 with our remaining 8-9
james500
2573 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 3:57 AM
12 points gets me into position.
Andy (muesli64)
1786 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 4:58 AM
Got to be. Benefits so outweigh the disadvantages.
JQT
2910 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 5:43 AM
The only thing worse than putting a 5 Card in the Enemy Crib is doing ANYTHING ELSE today.

We double our Hand to a Dozen Points prior to the Cut, and in doing so, Toss (5 K) might 'cost' us about Three Points 'over the board,' a very good investment.

Even if that King were another 5 Card, we should *still* Keep (7 7 8 9) and Toss (5 5). Do not fear the 5 Card: in many instances, it is just another card.
mfetchCT425
600 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 5:47 AM
Be aggressive here. I see no reason to break up a 12 hand to avoid the 5-K discard at this board position. We should be in nice position with the crib on next deal.
RubyTuesday
493 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Tuesday 6:10 AM
I’m happy to throw 5K to dealer’s crib today.
JRCeagle78
915 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Tuesday 6:19 AM
Sometimes, the best thing to do is the one thing you don't want to do. I'll feel that inner happiness when the dealer responds to my 7 lead with a Queen, no preference as to suit.
Eolus619
54 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Tuesday 6:24 AM
See all the above........plus ...the #1 goal for me is to start next hand in the 40s as dealer. So toss K-5.
Jazzselke
1538 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 6:38 AM
I've said a few times: "You can't throw your good hands away". Dependent on position of course.
Gougie00
4352 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 7:10 AM
Gotta give yourself a chance to win
Mark6
51 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Tuesday 7:20 AM
Chance to grow a nice hand into a Monster
SallyAnn3
122 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Tuesday 8:05 AM
No fear...early in the game....cushioned lead. As one or my mentors says above "You can't throw your good hands away!" See Dan, I DO listen lol
wasa
1682 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Tuesday 10:16 AM
Surprised not 100%
Ras2829
3814 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 10:43 AM
At hole 29 need 14 points to reach 2ndstreet CPZ 43-47) for upcoming deal. So it's off., off., off, lead a 7 and take any pegs offered. Understanding of positional requirements makes this an easy decision as to pegging strategy, hand to retain, discard to make, and card to lead. Is there a place on the board where I would choose defense and toss 9-K? Yes - if shoulder to shoulder at hole 93-97 as n/d. In such case, minimizing dealer progress down the board would be the my major consideration.
Coeurdelion
4275 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 1:46 PM
I think it's a straight choice between 7-7-8-9 (5-K) and 5-7-7-8 (9-K):

7-7-8-9: 12pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.25) = -4½pts

5-7-7-8: 8pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.03) = -4pts

Potential:

7-7-8-9: Improves with AAAA, 6666, 77, 888, 999, 10101010 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 16/20/21/24pts with 6666, 77, 888, 999 = 12 cuts.

5-7-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 3333, 555, 6666, 77, 888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 10/12/14pts with 3333, 6666, 77, 888, 999 = 16 cuts.

Position:

We need 15pts to reach 2nd street positional hole so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

Both hands will peg well but I think 5-7-7-8 will peg slightly better.

Summary:

5-7-7-8 has a starting value ½pt more than 7-7-8-9 and it has many more cuts for improvement and 16 cuts for 10-14pts. 7-7-8-9 obviously starts with 12pts and although it only has 20 cuts for improvement it has 12 cuts for 16-24pts. As we're aiming at 44pts if we start with 12pts and peg 1 or 2pts we're almost there. So In this situation I think I'll keep the dozen . If we do get a cut for a big hand then we'll be in a strong position.
HalscribCLX
4039 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 1:48 PM
At 29-19* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense__Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W7 %____W8 %
7-7-8-9___14.39+1.17+(-7.49)=8.07____52.5____59.0
5-7-7-8____9.22+1.26+(-3.95)=6.53____36.0____52.3

Offense_____L7 %____L8 %
7-7-8-9_____25.3____25.8
5-7-7-8_____17.8____27.9

7-7-8-9 is better for expected averages by 1.54pts and is very much better Win %s. 5-7-7-8 is signicantly lower for Loss %s because of the safety of the 9-K compared to 5-K but even so I'll select 5-K to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead a 7 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Pts.
7__________________1.32
8__________________1.04
9__________________0.85