Tuesday 3:21 AM

I think it would have to be pretty decisive positions on fourth street not do this discard still. So probably about seventy five percent of the game I would do this one. Seven lead here. dec

   

Tuesday 3:24 AM

Early in the game, going with expected average and tossing 5-K to dealer. Hand starts with 12 and has a maximum of 24.

   

Tuesday 3:29 AM

this hand is far too strong to worry about tossing 5K to dealer's crib.

   

Tuesday 3:36 AM

Time to deliver a knockout punch with a middle card cut-lead the 7 and dump the other 7 if dealer makes it 17-we might get lucky and trap a 10 with our remaining 8-9

   

Tuesday 3:57 AM

12 points gets me into position.

   

Tuesday 4:58 AM

Got to be. Benefits so outweigh the disadvantages.

   

Tuesday 5:43 AM

The only thing worse than putting a 5 Card in the Enemy Crib is doing ANYTHING ELSE today.

We double our Hand to a Dozen Points prior to the Cut, and in doing so, Toss (5 K) might 'cost' us about Three Points 'over the board,' a very good investment.

Even if that King were another 5 Card, we should *still* Keep (7 7 8 9) and Toss (5 5). Do not fear the 5 Card: in many instances, it is just another card.

   

Tuesday 5:47 AM

Be aggressive here. I see no reason to break up a 12 hand to avoid the 5-K discard at this board position. We should be in nice position with the crib on next deal.

   

Tuesday 6:10 AM

I’m happy to throw 5K to dealer’s crib today.

   

Tuesday 6:19 AM

Sometimes, the best thing to do is the one thing you don't want to do. I'll feel that inner happiness when the dealer responds to my 7 lead with a Queen, no preference as to suit.

   

Tuesday 6:24 AM

See all the above........plus ...the #1 goal for me is to start next hand in the 40s as dealer. So toss K-5.

   

Tuesday 6:38 AM

I've said a few times: "You can't throw your good hands away". Dependent on position of course.

   

Tuesday 7:10 AM

Gotta give yourself a chance to win

   

Tuesday 7:20 AM

Chance to grow a nice hand into a Monster

   

Tuesday 8:05 AM

No fear...early in the game....cushioned lead. As one or my mentors says above "You can't throw your good hands away!" See Dan, I DO listen lol

   

Tuesday 10:16 AM

Surprised not 100%

   

Tuesday 10:43 AM

At hole 29 need 14 points to reach 2ndstreet CPZ 43-47) for upcoming deal. So it's off., off., off, lead a 7 and take any pegs offered. Understanding of positional requirements makes this an easy decision as to pegging strategy, hand to retain, discard to make, and card to lead. Is there a place on the board where I would choose defense and toss 9-K? Yes - if shoulder to shoulder at hole 93-97 as n/d. In such case, minimizing dealer progress down the board would be the my major consideration.

   

Tuesday 1:46 PM

I think it's a straight choice between 7-7-8-9 (5-K) and 5-7-7-8 (9-K):

7-7-8-9: 12pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.25) = -4½pts

5-7-7-8: 8pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.03) = -4pts

Potential:

7-7-8-9: Improves with AAAA, 6666, 77, 888, 999, 10101010 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 16/20/21/24pts with 6666, 77, 888, 999 = 12 cuts.

5-7-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 3333, 555, 6666, 77, 888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 10/12/14pts with 3333, 6666, 77, 888, 999 = 16 cuts.

Position:

We need 15pts to reach 2nd street positional hole so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

Both hands will peg well but I think 5-7-7-8 will peg slightly better.

Summary:

5-7-7-8 has a starting value ½pt more than 7-7-8-9 and it has many more cuts for improvement and 16 cuts for 10-14pts. 7-7-8-9 obviously starts with 12pts and although it only has 20 cuts for improvement it has 12 cuts for 16-24pts. As we're aiming at 44pts if we start with 12pts and peg 1 or 2pts we're almost there. So In this situation I think I'll keep the dozen . If we do get a cut for a big hand then we'll be in a strong position.

   

Tuesday 1:48 PM

At 29-19* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense__Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W7 %____W8 %
7-7-8-9___14.39+1.17+(-7.49)=8.07____52.5____59.0
5-7-7-8____9.22+1.26+(-3.95)=6.53____36.0____52.3

Offense_____L7 %____L8 %
7-7-8-9_____25.3____25.8
5-7-7-8_____17.8____27.9

7-7-8-9 is better for expected averages by 1.54pts and is very much better Win %s. 5-7-7-8 is signicantly lower for Loss %s because of the safety of the 9-K compared to 5-K but even so I'll select 5-K to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead a 7 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Pts.
7__________________1.32
8__________________1.04
9__________________0.85