Rosemarie44 says: could "use"

mfetchCT425 says: Hey Rob, I bought my Pawtucket ticket and will keep it handy if needed, lol. Man it’s tough getting sent down to the minors! Haha.

JQT says: As is the case with almost all things in Cribbage (and in Life), it is relative: Toss (9 T) to our Own Crib is, depending on which data you consult, about number 38 out of the 91 total possible discards, and Schell puts it at around 4.29 Points. Other choices we have today are: Toss (5 Q), Number 7 of 91, 6.63 Points; Toss (5 9), Number 21 of 91, 5.43 Points; Toss (A 4), Number 22 of 91, 5.43 Points. The main problem I see with Toss (9 T) today is that we would only begin with Four Points overall, since Toss (9 T) only promises to grow: it may end up yielding nothing at all! Toss (5 Q) presents an identical problem in a reverse fashion, in that it is now our Hand that now suffers and only begins with Two Points, so while it has a higher Crib Value, I doubt that it will produce or 'make up' those extra Two Points! This leaves Toss (A 4) and Toss (5 9) as the most worthy discard candidates in my opinion, and since both either: contain a 5 Card or, contain cards that add up to Five or Fifteen, these will *always* produce a Crib of at least Two Points, while we are also able to maintain the original Four Points in our Hand in both instances. And ironically, most charts list Toss (A 4) and Toss (5 9) as being of identical value in our Own Crib! And so, as I stated in my posting today, I think Toss (5 9) is the superior choice today, since it allows us to retain a hand in which the pegging may benefit from the two-card "Magic Eleven" that we have after Toss (5 9), and that makes most of the difference today. And it is also my preference to Toss (5 9), or even Toss (2 5) for that matter, as opposed to Toss (A 4), when and if all other things are equal. (Any other card alongside a 5 Card in our Own Crib does even better, so these two discards are of the possible worst or corner-cases in which one card is a 5 Card.) The fact that the Toss (9 T) is a suited discard is a red herring and helps make this a better puzzle, as it might persuade some players to prefer this as a discard; but in reality, the same-suited discards add only a paltry 0.04 points to such a choice, and so giving preference based upon suits should ONLY be done when: such a choice exists AND when such a discard is clearly the superior discard; today this is probably clearly not the case.

dec says: I will venture a guess here. K-10-2-go-2-2 that would be a total of nine pegs so 112 would be that? dec

Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: This is the way that I played this hand for years. So spent no time responding to your earlier reply to my post. My choice was optimal strategy - believe the numbers will slightly favor holding A-4-5-Q if choosing an optimal pegging strategy.

JQT says: Well, when you put it THAT WAY: Food Fight ON!! Okay, let's give this another Critical Look: As the Dealer needing just Twenty-Two Points from our pending "Three Counts," Toss (9 T) does appear to form a natural 'split' for a balanced approach. If Pone were perhaps a few holes CLOSER to, or if we were maybe a few points CLOSER ourselves as the Dealer to the Finish Line, then I think that either Toss (5 9) or Toss (A 4) would certainly be the more natural way to 'split' this arrangement today. As it stands however, positionally, we are just Three Points beyond the Fourth Street 'par' Hole 96, while Pone (who is Fourteen Points from going out) is about Four Holes 'shy' of the 'desired minimal' place on the board. Still, I think the main way to lose what should be a VICTORY for us here is to carelessly 'cough up' too much during the pegging. Our main concern should probably be against the ubiquitous Twelve-Point Hand held by Pone (if they have Fourteen or Sixteen, we're going to lose, regardless; similarly, if they have Eight Points or less, I think they should be bound to lose, regardless). Therefore, it is those Ten- and Twelve-Point Pone Hands that should most concern us, in which we could only 'give up' Four or Six Pegs, respectively. We want a hand that gives us a logical reply to any number of Lead Cards, followed by the least amount of risk of either allowing Pone to form a RUN, or having us as Dealer getting forced to PAIR, risking a PAIRS Royal. Here again, I am somewhat drawn toward Keep (A 4 T Q) and Toss (5 9), getting rid of the dangerous 5 Card, especially as it may sit alongside a 4 Card. The "Lone Ace" is of some concern, but holding the 4 Card with that Ace would seem to mitigate most of that risk. It may all boil down to which card we should play and when during the pegging. After Toss (9 T), then if Pone leads a 4 Card or a Trey, then we are probably forced to play our Queen, and now we're left holding the proverbial (A 4 5) bag! Either a Lone 4 Card or Lone 5 Card during a final volley of pegging always risks getting 'broadsided' with a 4-5-6 RUN Trap and giving up Six Holes! After Toss (5 9), either a 4 Card or Trey Lead allows us to play that same Queen (or we might even unload the Ten "T" here?!), and now we hold either (A 4 T) or (A 4 Q), which seems a bit safer, as it allows us to "Play Off" with a bit more flexibility. In Summary: The relative POSITION *still* has me leaning toward Toss (5 9) or even Toss (A 4) today, but after your explanation, I'm not leaning quite so firmly! But regardless of the chosen discard, I think the *real* challenge here might actually be in how we handle the pegging. Further Thoughts or Ideas?