July 30, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by James500
99*-107  ?
34%
31%
12%
9%
3%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 210
Rosemarie44
1643 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 3:08 AM
The value of 5-9 and A-4 in our crib is only .01 point difference with 5-9 leading. (Ras) This hand has more cuts for improvement and we could more points to move down the board.
mrob2199
397 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Thursday 3:32 AM
I like keeping the 9-10 together in our hand today to maximize the value of an 8 or J cut-which would be our bingo cut here-giving us 2 for the cut,at least 2 in the crib and improving our hand by 6 points-the pone is only 14 out so let’s peg very cautiously here
james500
2573 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Thursday 3:53 AM
Another one of mine.

Had I known about the "green box", I could've simply asked there, "Is 9-10 a good discard?"
thelawnet
226 votes

Joined: January 2020

   
Thursday 4:16 AM
For some reason decided we were 32 out, not 22.

We probably want 14 or more points here. And no pegs for pone .

I'd like to look at the distributions of points for each discard . If a few are bad that doesn't matter, since we lose here often anyway.

But generally probably the hold that maximises our median hand is probably best

5q is not that , and nor is 5t - they might score bigger points.

A4 and 59 seem the steadiest discards. I think I prefer 59 but it's close.

Peg defensively.

Quiz question: at x-120* the game is always over without ever laying down cards. What is the lowest score from which pone has a theoretical chance to win?
dec
4954 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Thursday 4:22 AM
In grass roots last night I saw that 9-10 discard produce cribs from five to nine points. Even a three point crib now would get us closer on first count which the talk would go anything to add on our score would help here. Careful offense here on the pegging. dec
Gougie00
4352 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Thursday 4:49 AM
A4 is more likely to get some help
JQT
2910 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Thursday 5:13 AM
While it is appealing to the Eye to Toss (9 T) suited, and attractive to the Head to Toss (A 4), my Heart leans toward Toss (5 9) today.

We don't want to confuse Toss (A 4) with Toss (2 3) in Our Crib. And, Toss (5 9) is every good as Toss (A 4), while allowing us to retain the same number of Points in our Hand, along with a very reliable two-card "Magic Eleven" for pegging.
Jazzselke
1538 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Thursday 5:24 AM
Would rather have the 910 in the hand: opponent will do their best not to throw an 8 or a Jack to the crib. Also like 59 in the hand rather than A4, as we have the 5 for pegging, and do not retain a vulnerable lone ace.
PBatterson
1118 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Thursday 5:30 AM
In this position pone is not likely to focus on defense. Eight in the hand and eight in the crib gives me a chance.
mfetchCT425
600 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Thursday 5:48 AM
Like this hold just slightly more than the other viable options. Hand has a chance to increase to max of 10 with the ace being our kabangi cut. We have nice spacing of cards here to avoid any run complications and the A forms a magic 11 with the faces.
Eolus619
54 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Thursday 6:24 AM
My four choice options for crib toss are well discussed above. It’s now a two hand game W or L. It’s an interesting puzzle. james asks the question about 9-10 discard. Liam Brown says it averages 4.2 which is down the list of choices. But dec points out what happened in grass roots play ...5-9 ...the 1-4 toss seems to get help in my hand from 30 cuts . The K cut gets me to at least 8 ...hand + crib
SallyAnn3
122 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Thursday 7:06 AM
A 5 in both hand and crib....cards that are far apart..magic 11....and hope is the only other thing we need. :)
jmath714
762 votes

Joined: January 2012

   
Thursday 8:41 AM
Really good puzzle here. Four legitimate options here (A4, 59, 9T and 5Q). I prefer 59 to 4A, and will cautiously take pegs with the K cut. A lot depends on the opponent and the read I get on that opponent.
Ras2829
3814 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Thursday 10:43 AM
This hand is one of those that just splits very naturally. My brother Gary is a natural card player, not a student of the game. He would instantly see how to play this hand. RAS would have to test it a thousand times and then would reach the same conclusion that he had reached in the blink of an eye. The greater combined value will be to discard the suited 9-10. Think it matters not your choice of strategy, that is so. A-4-5-Q wins the day. Am choosing an optimal strategy and will take reasonably safe pegs. Would ditch the 5 spot on any X-lead for 15-2. If paired advance the count to 30, and likely score 31-2 with the Ace. That's a "sweet 16" at work! The superior hand value and pegging potential doesn't allow the A-4 or 5-9 discards to make up the difference.
dgergens
655 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Thursday 10:51 AM
I get this and the next hand to make 22 points, and keep pone from doing better than average this hand. I thought this hand would do best.
Mark6
51 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Thursday 1:42 PM
All alone with lawnet today
Coeurdelion
4275 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Thursday 5:11 PM
I think there are three prominent choices - A-4-10-Q (5-9), 5-9-10-Q (A-4), A-4-5-Q (9-10) and perhaps A-4-9-10 (5-Q):

A-4-10-Q: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 9¼pts

5-9-10-Q: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 9¼pts

A-4-5-Q: 4pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.29) = 8¼pts

A-4-9-10: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 8½pts

Potential:

A-4-10-Q: Improves with AAA, 444, 555 + 14xXs = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/9/10pts with AAA, 444, 555, 101010, JJJJ, QQQ = 19 cuts.

5-9-10-Q: Improves with AAA, 555, 6666, 8888, 999 + 14xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 7/8/10pts with 555, 8888, 101010, JJJJ, QQQ = 17 cuts.

A-4-5-Q: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 999 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 7/8/9/10pts with all cuts.

A-4-9-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 444, 555, 6666, 8888, 999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 5/6/7/8pts with AAA, 444, 555, 8888, 101010, JJJJ = 20 cuts.

Position:

We're 3pts past 4th street positional hole so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg well playing Defense.

Summary:

A-4-10-Q and 5-9-10-Q are ¾pt better for expected averages and although 5-9-10-Q is better than A-4-10-Q for cuts for improvement A-4-10-has 19 cuts for 8-10pts compared to 17 cuts for 7-10pts. So I'll throw the 5-9.
HalscribCLX
4039 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 5:12 PM
At 99*-107 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense____Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W1 %___W2 %
5-9-10-Q____6.30+(-2.11)+5.23=9.42____1.7____41.1
A-4-10-Q____6.17+(-2.02)+5.25=9.40____0.9____43.1
A-4-5-Q_____7.09+(-1.98)+4.23=9.34____2.9____42.3
A-4-9-10____4.65+(-1.85)+6.50=9.30____1.6____40.2

Defense_______L1 %____L2 %
5-9-10-Q_______19.1____56.1
A-4-10-Q_______14.6____54.1
A-4-5-Q________20.2____54.3
A-4-9-10_______17.8____57.3

5-9-10-Q is best for expected averages but only by 0.02pt over A-4-10-Q but A-4-10-Q is significantly lowest for Loss %s and a close second for Win %s. So as we're in the fourth street Critical Positon Zone and Win/Loss %s take account of the board position I'll select 5-9 to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.