August 1, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Gougie00
115-117*  ?
58%
32%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 201
Gougie00Is the 5 a liability?
james500
2573 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Saturday 3:04 AM
Since I have a pair of twos, it's less likely Dealer has any, and they should be safe to peg with.
2-2-4-9 or 2-2-5-8 then?

2D lead.
Rosemarie44
1643 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Saturday 3:25 AM
Greg's cribbage fairy hasn't been kind to him again! The starter card of a Jack certainly gives dealer the upper hand. End games are tough for me but went with this hand that has a 3 card magic eleven. As if that would be enough help?
dec
4954 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Saturday 3:44 AM
Odds are not good to peg with a choice of three optimal keeps. Not going to overthink it and keep six , defensive eleven , and lead one of the twos. Now that dealer is at 119 play for them to have one go or last card for one. dec
JQT
2910 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Saturday 3:59 AM
I believe that Keep (2 2 5 8) gives us far better chances that Keep (2 2 4 9) for defensive pegging, mainly due to the separation between the card ranks.

After the Jack Cut, this seems especially important, as now we cannot afford to give up any pegging whatsoever beyond the obligatory One Hole for either Last Card or "go" for the Dealer.

Let's lead a Deuce and see what happens!
kelliher
107 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Saturday 4:07 AM
Keep all different cards for more chances pegging.
mrob2199
397 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Saturday 4:12 AM
When the dealer is this close to the finish line(4 hioles,but 2 now after that very unfortunate cut)we would prefer to hold a hand without a 5-the dealer is always going to retain one in this situation-knowing we need 6 points and are very likely to keep a 5 to acquire the requisite 6-fortunately today we are able to hold a 6 pint hand without a 5-and with a pair to lead from-which would be the optimum play here before that horrific J cut-lead the 2 and try avoid all the pegging land mines the dealer is going to unleash on us
dgergens
655 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Saturday 4:36 AM
Without that detailed thought process, I basically figured what mrob said, that should avoid the 5. So kept 4,9 over 5,8. Again, did not consider possibility of J cut, and even if I did, I wouldn't know what to do about it. I think my low cards should help me dodge a go or two.
mfetchCT425
600 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Saturday 5:03 AM
I think we have to keep 6 here so it’s either 2-2-4-9 or 2-2-5-8. I like the first option dumping the 5 so that we don’t get trapped with it during the pegging. Lead a 2.
RubyTuesday
493 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Saturday 5:39 AM
2 + 9 = 11, that’s why I decided to throw 5 8 rather than 4 9. I was also worried about ending up having to lead my 5.
usacoder
350 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Saturday 5:43 AM
End game, keep low cards for play. Start with a deuce.
zeke76
666 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Saturday 6:00 AM
Felt good before that J cut.
SallyAnn3
122 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Saturday 6:13 AM
Hold enough points to count first...dump the 5...magic 11...lead the 2. Had hope until the cut, but still leading the 2.
thelawnet
226 votes

Joined: January 2020

   
Saturday 6:14 AM
2258 or 2249. Binary choice.

5s are dangerous. Lead the 2.
Gougie00
4352 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Saturday 7:23 AM
This is what I held and was still pegged out on. Ironically, had I held 2258, my original thought, I would have won. I think it was a case of outsmarting myself. I always post my failures.

ThomM
457 votes

Joined: November 2013

   
Saturday 10:38 AM
58 or 49? 4 feels safer in the hand, and 9 advances pegging more quickly. Cut really hurts. I would have led the 4 reflexively, but I see that 2 is the safer because I'm holding one of the other 2s.
Jazzselke
1538 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Saturday 1:52 PM
Ditto, ditto
Ras2829
3814 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Saturday 3:22 PM
Think there are other hands which would have better chance of keeping dealer shy of the four pegs needed to win. Did not consider them as need six points to win. Am playing a defense strategy since I know I win with first count of six points. That means that I would not take a 15-2 unless dealer played an 8 on my deuce lead. Would then ditch that lone 5 for 15-2. Although I am fearful when holding a lone 5, believe the added space between 2-2-5 as compared to 2-2-4 outweighs the liability of the lone five. Will lead the 2C, drop the five second card played if that looks safe. If it looks unsafe to drop the five, will fake the flush by playing the 8. Hopefully will get rid of the five second card played then it's wiggle away from dealer with good distance between the remaining 2/8.
Coeurdelion
4275 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Saturday 3:28 PM
I think it's between 2-2-4-9 (5-8) and 2-2-5-8 (4-9). Both start with 6pts so which hand will stop Dealer pegging 4pts better? I think I'll go for 2-2-4-9 and throw 5-8.
HalscribCLX
4039 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Saturday 3:31 PM
At 115-117* the Dealer Peg Out %s for the two hands guaranteed to get out are:

_________________Dlr Peg Out %
2-2-4-9______________42.4
2-2-5-8______________46.0

2-2-4-9 is appreciably lower for chances of the opponent pegging out so I'll select 5-8 to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead a 2 and play Defense:

Lead________Dlr's Pegging Pts.____Win %
2________________(-0.91)__________20.0
4________________(-1.02)__________16.0
9________________(-1.07)___________5.5
HK343
79 votes

Joined: July 2012

   
Saturday 9:06 PM
Terrible cut. Lead the 2d.