August 1, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Gougie00
115-117*  ?
58%
32%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 201
Gougie00Is the 5 a liability?
james500
3916 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:04 AM
Since I have a pair of twos, it's less likely Dealer has any, and they should be safe to peg with.
2-2-4-9 or 2-2-5-8 then?

2D lead.
james500 says: Having just checked yesterday's puzzle for any new posts, welcome WarQuaker glad you're enjoying the site.
warquaker says: Many thanks.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:25 AM
Greg's cribbage fairy hasn't been kind to him again! The starter card of a Jack certainly gives dealer the upper hand. End games are tough for me but went with this hand that has a 3 card magic eleven. As if that would be enough help?
Gougie00 says: The cribbage fairy is bipolar. When she loves you, you cannot do anything wrong. When she hates you, you cannot do anything right. Sort of like playing on eCribbage where a Q9 toss in the other guy's crib is always 12.
Rosemarie44 says: This happens to lots of us - you aren't the only one that's chosen.
dec
6351 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:44 AM
Odds are not good to peg with a choice of three optimal keeps. Not going to overthink it and keep six , defensive eleven , and lead one of the twos. Now that dealer is at 119 play for them to have one go or last card for one. dec
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:59 AM
I believe that Keep (2 2 5 8) gives us far better chances that Keep (2 2 4 9) for defensive pegging, mainly due to the separation between the card ranks.

After the Jack Cut, this seems especially important, as now we cannot afford to give up any pegging whatsoever beyond the obligatory One Hole for either Last Card or "go" for the Dealer.

Let's lead a Deuce and see what happens!
Mark6 says: My key takeaway from Today - separation difference between 2-4 and 2-5 . Thanks for pointing it out
JQT says: This choice could also depend quite a lot on the strength of the Dealer. Granted, the 5 Card is a liability against a whole mess of Ten Cards (or "X"), but an adaptive player is likely to retain the lower pegging cards. Still, in a final volley of pegging, the 5 Card does surrender a (15-2) a high proportion of times, and even a simple PAIRING of that 5 Card will happen a LOT. The fact that we must lead as Pone is often our main disadvantage, and so the 5 Card is a bit of a ticking time bomb.
kelliher
304 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 4:07 AM
Keep all different cards for more chances pegging.
Eolus619 says: Hello...food for thought ..with this hold , if you do manage to prevent opponent from pegging out...you are holding only 4 of the six points (after the cut) to get you to 121 with your first count ...Pegging 2 may be tough And holding a five is a risk as dealer very likely has one in hand ..but the beauty of cribbage are the choices we make !
Eolus619 says: I just reread my post....I have enough trouble deciding what I should do rather than commenting on what others did..my comments were just trying to provide an alternative for your consideration ...not meant to criticize in any way
Jazzselke says: Yes, why not hold enough??
Jazzselke says: Mary Ann?
kelliher says: My bad! Had to go back and look. Apparently I thought I had 117. That's the mistakes that will cost us a game. Bummer. And it had to be when I finally made a comment. Haha
mrob2199
1428 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 4:12 AM
When the dealer is this close to the finish line(4 hioles,but 2 now after that very unfortunate cut)we would prefer to hold a hand without a 5-the dealer is always going to retain one in this situation-knowing we need 6 points and are very likely to keep a 5 to acquire the requisite 6-fortunately today we are able to hold a 6 pint hand without a 5-and with a pair to lead from-which would be the optimum play here before that horrific J cut-lead the 2 and try avoid all the pegging land mines the dealer is going to unleash on us
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Saturday 4:36 AM
Without that detailed thought process, I basically figured what mrob said, that should avoid the 5. So kept 4,9 over 5,8. Again, did not consider possibility of J cut, and even if I did, I wouldn't know what to do about it. I think my low cards should help me dodge a go or two.
mfetchCT425
1394 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 5:03 AM
I think we have to keep 6 here so it’s either 2-2-4-9 or 2-2-5-8. I like the first option dumping the 5 so that we don’t get trapped with it during the pegging. Lead a 2.
warquaker says: This is my play as well. I am pleased with myself as my first tought was to keep 2258 and then saw that the 5 could be trapped so thought a little more about the hand.
RubyTuesday
907 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 5:39 AM
2 + 9 = 11, that’s why I decided to throw 5 8 rather than 4 9. I was also worried about ending up having to lead my 5.
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 5:43 AM
End game, keep low cards for play. Start with a deuce.
zeke76
1389 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Saturday 6:00 AM
Felt good before that J cut.
SallyAnn3
903 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 6:13 AM
Hold enough points to count first...dump the 5...magic 11...lead the 2. Had hope until the cut, but still leading the 2.
thelawnet
262 votes

Joined: January 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 6:14 AM
2258 or 2249. Binary choice.

5s are dangerous. Lead the 2.
Gougie00
5723 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 7:23 AM
This is what I held and was still pegged out on. Ironically, had I held 2258, my original thought, I would have won. I think it was a case of outsmarting myself. I always post my failures.

zeke76 says: Did the J get cut in actual play?
Gougie00 says: No, but my 4 and 9 got paired. I thought I was so clever to ditch the 5.
ThomM
459 votes

Joined: November 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 10:38 AM
58 or 49? 4 feels safer in the hand, and 9 advances pegging more quickly. Cut really hurts. I would have led the 4 reflexively, but I see that 2 is the safer because I'm holding one of the other 2s.
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 1:52 PM
Ditto, ditto
Ras2829
5145 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:22 PM
Think there are other hands which would have better chance of keeping dealer shy of the four pegs needed to win. Did not consider them as need six points to win. Am playing a defense strategy since I know I win with first count of six points. That means that I would not take a 15-2 unless dealer played an 8 on my deuce lead. Would then ditch that lone 5 for 15-2. Although I am fearful when holding a lone 5, believe the added space between 2-2-5 as compared to 2-2-4 outweighs the liability of the lone five. Will lead the 2C, drop the five second card played if that looks safe. If it looks unsafe to drop the five, will fake the flush by playing the 8. Hopefully will get rid of the five second card played then it's wiggle away from dealer with good distance between the remaining 2/8.
Ras2829 says: HalscribCLX provides the numbers on dealer peg out - so holding the 5 is more of a liability with the 2-2 than is holding the 4.
Ras2829 says: However it's most likely the cut of that lousy Jack that lost this game. Can only allow dealer a single peg now. That's a mighty challenge.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 3:28 PM
I think it's between 2-2-4-9 (5-8) and 2-2-5-8 (4-9). Both start with 6pts so which hand will stop Dealer pegging 4pts better? I think I'll go for 2-2-4-9 and throw 5-8.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:31 PM
At 115-117* the Dealer Peg Out %s for the two hands guaranteed to get out are:

_________________Dlr Peg Out %
2-2-4-9______________42.4
2-2-5-8______________46.0

2-2-4-9 is appreciably lower for chances of the opponent pegging out so I'll select 5-8 to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead a 2 and play Defense:

Lead________Dlr's Pegging Pts.____Win %
2________________(-0.91)__________20.0
4________________(-1.02)__________16.0
9________________(-1.07)___________5.5
HK343
178 votes

Joined: July 2012
 
 
 
Saturday 9:06 PM
Terrible cut. Lead the 2d.