August 5, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by HfxKen
0-0*  ?
30%
21%
18%
8%
5%
4%
4%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 215
james500
3916 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:23 AM
Triple nickels and an open-ended double run possibility. 10-A less likely to find a "friend" in the crib with A-4-4-5 out of circulation.

Congratulations to Jmath of this parish for breaking in to the top 10 of the Cribbage Pro competitive multiplayer rankings.
SallyAnn3 says: Way to go Jason :)
thelawnet
262 votes

Joined: January 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:32 AM
hands containing 44 are among the best pone hands for pegging (lead the 4, get the 4 back, score 6)

Adding an Ace for 2 points following 4-X is even better.

AA5T is a horrible choice in comparison.

The other option is A44T, which isn't as good for pegging and sends a 5 to dealer, so I'm not sure why we'd consider anything else....
mrob2199
1428 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:56 AM
A picture card cut will give us 8,and we are open ended for a double run to a 3 or 6 cut-I would try to get a little tricky with the pegging and lead the ace-this will often elicit a 9 response from the dealer,enabling us to get the first 15 of the game-if the dealer plays a picture and we get a 15 with our 4,he might feel emboldened to match the 4,deducing that if we did hold 2 fours we most likely would have led one of them instead of the ace-it’s good to throw in a curveball as far as our pegging tactics go.
SallyAnn3 says: Sometimes. I'd like to give my opp a knuckleball lol :)
dec
6351 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:58 AM
10-A unsuited. The eight cut the only non productive cut. Now with eight and probably a minimal crib lead the four of diamonds and play on after. dec
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:35 AM
A - 10 and ho[pe for a good cut!!
Gougie00
5723 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:13 AM
I'll break ranks. Usually AA doesnt produce a loud *BOOM* in the crib. I have to work on my cutting skills to find one of the 6s in the deck.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:16 AM
I gave AA44 gamble some consideration. But any cut good for me would be good for pone and net points end up same or nearly. So this seemed best option today.
HfxKen
880 votes

Joined: February 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:33 AM
My thought on this puzzle was,as pone on first deal, to get as far up the board as I could. Really looking forward to reading what more experienced players would do.
Cut card was an 8 and I got lucky in the fact that I know my opponent pairs everything so I led the 4 and got a pairs royal.
wasa
3012 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:09 AM
Looks like HfxKen and I had the same thoughts. Full offence as first non-dealer. A-5 not too bad. Great cut!
Eolus619
1335 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:15 AM
i could not bring myself to discard the 5. The first four explanations above are good reasons why tossing A-10 is my choice. Need peg points ..my hold helps there. I am in sync with HfxKen as to getting up the board. With this hand and the productive cut still well off the par hole schedule.
warquaker
238 votes

Joined: July 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:23 AM
Grunch (he/she was a poster on a poker website who would give his/her answer to any poker problem without reading anyone else's and his/her name became the synonym for doing so): According to the 26 theory we need to pick up 7pts to have a chance of winning this on the ninth deal whilst the GSD (games starting dealer) needs to pick up 17pts to win this by the end of the eighth deal (not easy to do). Bearing all this in mind: I am aggressive and dump K5 into pone's crib and keep 4pts hoping for an X card cut.
warquaker says: should read "dump T5".
warquaker says: Having perused the other posts and had a look at discard pro I did not even manage to keep the maximum number of points in my hand. I think the conception was right but my execution was poor.
Eolus619 says: hello....you might benefit from learning about Critcal Postion Zones...they are much easier to keep track of than par hoes for two players and what hand you are on....Ras has a very good class on Cribbage and week Eight part 3 deals with CPZ https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/strategy.html
Eolus619 says: holes not hoes ..yikes
james500 says: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_0keQos38Fk and https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FSu8lTmXjMY
warquaker says: Eulos619 and james500 thanks for generously pointing me in the right direction. The material is going to take some digesting!
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:41 AM
Giving away a 5 Card, or two cards that add up to five, is tantamount to placing Six Points in the Enemy Crib, and it will be nearly impossible to offset such a giveaway.

Toss (A T) is fairly "safe," on the other hand, and allows us many good Cuts for a decent hand during which we do not give away our best card.

After the King Cut, I'll lead a 4 Card.
JQT says: We often have quite intense debates over various ideas in discards that involve perhaps a quarter- or third-point difference in relative scoring: getting today's puzzle wrong may, on average, 'cost' up to TEN TIMES this amount, anywhere from Two to Three Points, overall!
SallyAnn3
903 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:47 AM
Go big or go home...first hand. More faces in the deck..worth the gamble. Can't play defense allllll the time.
james500 says: Hi SallyAnn, hope you're well. I'm sorry to don my "pedant's hat", but when you say, "more faces in the deck", it depends on how you measure it. If you measure by exact card value, then yes, there are 15 cards left worth 10 and no more than 4 with any other precise value, so nearly 4 times as likely for the cut to be 10 than something else. If we look at it in a more binary sense, there are 15 cards worth 10 and so 31 not worth 10, meaning twice as many "non-faces" in the deck.
SallyAnn3 says: No worries, James. Fire away. I try to learn from everything. That is the professor in me lol....so we are both pedants :)
SallyAnn3 says: Plus I see the error of my ways now! Never be sorry for trying to help--I need it!
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:21 AM
Another reason this seems like the optimal hold is we're throwing A10 when we are keeping 2 fours.
travelingman2019 says: Someone taught me years ago the 10A throw on the defense was always a good toss, and in this case, definitely......also there are 15 chances of cutting the 10JOK and 4 other chances on the 3....that is 18 out of the remaining 40 cards, a good 40% chance of improving that hand and playing the correct defense........
travelingman2019 says: also 4 more on the 6...........
Ras2829
5146 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 10:17 AM
If one chooses offense as n/d of opening hand and uses combined values as a guide in the selection, A-4-4-5 with unsuited A-10 as discard wins hands down. For those not familiar with combined values if playing offense, complete potential pegs, hand value, less the potential crib value. If not up on this look at HalscribCLX analysis over a long period and you'll be able to see the patterns and values. And you can see how those figures vary dependent on strategy chosen (offense, defense, or optimal). If you do that, you'll eventually reach the point where you can make a close estimate in pretty quick manner. What needs to be said about this hand has been said. Every card other than 8 spot adds value, A-10 discard is safest choice among these six cards. Lead the 4D and take any pegs offered.
Ras2829 says: "complete" at start of line 4 above should be "compute". This game is complex enough without having to hire a linguist or interpreter. Sorry!
Ras2829 says: When choosing a strategy to include pegging strategy, offense does not necessarily mean holding the most points in hand. As JQT points out above a 5 averages nearly 6 points with any other card to opponent. So if holding six and giving up about six may be well below what can be attained by holding a mere two points and discarding unsuited A-10 fora much lower crib average.
Ras2829 says: And the A-4-4-5 ae all cards of high pegging value. So combined averages will favor holding the two points instead of six by about a full point based on my scant empirical evidence. Will defer to HalscribCLX on the exact values.