September 12, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by James500
73*-84  ?
34%
23%
22%
7%
5%
3%
2%
0%
0%
Total votes: 194
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:10 AM
I went for the nickel cut in the main hand. Thought I could play off more safely on their lead. I think its more about what they get here. dec
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 4:00 AM
I think the mystery three cards are more likely to contribute to a scoring combo if my discard comprises two different ranks rather than a pair.
JQT says: This hand also lends itself very nicely to attempting the possible Nine Point Pegging 'coup' that I mentioned a few days ago: After any lead higher than a Deuce, if we play our 9 Card, there is a *chance* that Pone will have all 'small' cards remaining, and have to 'play out' all cards after we say "go" at a Count of Twenty-Two or greater. If this succeeds, then, we get to first PAIR our own Queen, and then we can play PAIRS Royal, and so including One Point for Last Card, we peg Nine Holes unopposed! In board positions that are not as critical as the one we find ourselves in today, many strong players would attempt the 9 Card response even after an 8 Card or a Ten Card Lead, just on the calculated chances of cashing in on that luscious, possible Nine-Point Pegging Play! But here, in this critical position, I think we might want to avoid a 9 Card response after an 8 Card Lead: otherwise, after any other Lead higher than a Deuce, go for the Nifty Nine Points!
Mark6
702 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 4:22 AM
Keeping the Ladies
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 4:28 AM
Keeping the 3 Queens (sweet sixteen). The pair of nines are slightly higher in value (5.21 v. 5.11) than 6-9 to our crib.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:30 AM
We still retain a positional advantage in this game if we can maintain pace with our Opponent.

This is because we are the Current Dealer and we sit Three Holes into the Third Street Critical Position Zone of Hole 70; meanwhile, our Opponent is Non-Dealer and lies slightly greater than Ten Holes away from the Fourth Street Zone of Hole 96.

The cards we dealt ourselves are rather ordinary, which makes this a typical Cribbage Hand! We could hold PAIRS Royal and Toss (6 9), or we could retain (6 9 9 Q) and Toss (Q Q). I would not consider Toss (9 9) as being quite as good as Toss (6 9), and so I will concentrate on the other more viable discards.

Either choice could work well, and although Toss (6 9) is an "Also Ran" Dealer Discard according to the RAS "Star Power" formula, I am inclined to believe it is better than Toss (Q Q) today.

Thus, it's Keep (9 Q Q Q) and Toss (6 9).
Eolus619 says: JQT..after your reply to this , i may have egg on my face twice because i did not see the obvious about positional advantage. I do understand your explanation about where each player is in relation to the CPZ scores. However, if the cycle averages do happen the scoring sequence is 89-94*, 99*- 110, 115-120*...then it becomes me preventing my opponent from pegging one point before i get first count. ...this does not seem like an “advantage “ to me. I must be caught up in the can’t see the forest because of the trees ..thanks
JQT says: This is our dilemma with looking closely at positional play: in one sense, if we can DEFEND by three or four holes, we may stand superior; on the other hand, if we use an OFFENSIVE approach, and gain a few holes, we may reach the Finish Line *before* this situation gets too dire. My view at this juncture is that trying to defend with such cards as we were dealt here might cause us to fall behind even more on our OWN positional requirements. It's a bit like being on a racecourse, knowing we need to both brake and accelerate as we head into a dangerous curve: but when do we do which maneuver? I am of the view that it's easier and more natural to use an *offensive* approach when we are the Dealer, and then play *defensively* when we are Pone, as in each case, we have more CONTROL over the given respective approach, respectively. But others may view this differently, and I try to be as much or more willing to learn as I am attempting to teach in such a close, positional struggle. In Summary: I don't see either choice we have today as a good *defensive* alternative, and so I'll probably need to play defensively for the remainder of the game. But to try to defend and have it 'cost' us forward progress during This Deal seems like a bad decision to me.
Eolus619 says: thank you !
JQT says: Earlier, I quite readily dismissed Toss (9 9), and preferred Toss (6 9); but to be fair, these two choices have virtually identical Crib Values in most of the published charts. But I do generally disdain throwing PAIRS into our Own Crib, although it seems that Toss (6 9) should "catch" a similar variety of cards that might be helpful for us (666, 99) as compared to Toss (9 9), which is helped from a similar bunch, and thus Toss (9 9) shouldn't involve any extra Negative Delta, something we wish to avoid in our Own Crib. And, the occurrence of a less-probable 9 Card Cut or companion from Pone would possibly boost the Crib slightly more, and I suppose we might 'catch' a '9-T-J' RUN a little bit easier than a '6-7-8-9' RUN (although both seem rather unlikely). And therefore, if you decided to Toss (9 9) today, I shouldn't find it so easy to criticize your decision: Maybe this tells you more about ME than it tells you about the discard!
warquaker says: JQT: ". It's a bit like being on a racecourse, knowing we need to both brake and accelerate as we head into a dangerous curve: but when do we do which maneuver?" is a wonderful metaphor.
cribbagepogo says: Two choices are eliminated. Never accelerate going in nor brake coming out.
JQT says: I thought of that as I typed it: the metaphor does break down, as any race car driver knows. Usually, it's best to brake until near reaching the midpoint or apex of the curve, then coast, and finally accelerate coming out of the turn. But it's also not unusual to use both brake and accelerator simultaneously, and great drivers can actually do this effortlessly with just one foot. But aside from that specific order, we are often attempting to do something that achieves the same affect in Cribbage: we wish to "take the best line" and thus negotiate the curve in the most efficient means. And in Cribbage, I think we can best "apply the brakes" when we are Pone, and we can accelerate better when we are the Dealer. But Yeah: Don't accelerate your new Ferrari ahead of a hair-pin curve!
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 6:29 AM
Which combination has the biggest payoff? The combination of 6s and 9s usually gets no help in the crib. QQ may get some help. Anyway, that's the way I'll play it
Ras2829 says: Hi Gougie00: The 6-9 and 9-9 discards do better than most folks believe with averages well beyond 5 points. The frequent 9-K and 9-Q n/d discards, and given a choice A-9, 4-9, and 2-9 discards in preference to other middle cards with the 9 make for a lot of six point cribs. True 6-9 or 9-9 do not score 12 or more very often (a little over 5%).
Ras2829 says: Sorry..."with the 9" should read "with the A, 2, or 4". Does that clarify or further muddle?
JQT says: Maybe in the next RAS Class Cribbage YouTube Series, when referring to the "Star Power" method, you could upgrade or 'promote' Toss (6 9) as being among the "Best of the Also-Ran's" or a.k.a. sub-one-star discards?! Ref: http://www.cribbageforum.com/YourCrib.htm
glmccuskey
4101 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Saturday 7:35 AM
I like 6-9 to the crib vs either 9-9 or Q-Q.
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 8:11 AM
"Two triangles". I'm with Gary et al.
Hillchem says: Sorry, what do you mean by "Two triangles"?
Jazzselke says: 2 sets of related cards with 3 each: 699 and QQQ
wasa
3018 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Saturday 9:47 AM
I might have blinders on, but other than 5-5, I prefer not to toss pairs to my crib. Don't want the Q-Q in my crib as opponent not likely to toss me a 5 (or 2-3 or A-4) and also less likely to toss me a J.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 12:53 PM
8 points either way. See ras comment. 6-9 far more likely to get crib help.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 3:59 PM
I think the discard choice is between Q-Q, 6-9 or 9-9:

6-9-9-Q: 6pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.79) = 10¾pts

9-Q-Q-Q: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 11¼pts

6-Q-Q-Q: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.16) = 11¼pts

Potential:

6-9-9-Q: Improves with 5555, 666, 99, Q = 10 cuts = 10/46 = 21.7% up to 12pts with 666, 99 = 5 cuts.

9-Q-Q-Q: Improves with 5555, 666, 99, Q = 10 cuts = 10/46 = 21.7% up to 12pts with 5555, Q = 5 cuts.

6-Q-Q-Q: Improves with 5555, 666, 99, Q = 10 cuts = 21.7% up to 12pts with 5555, Q = 5 cuts.

Position:

We're 3pts past 2nd street positional hole and Pone is 2pts short of where they would like to be so I'll play Defense:

Pegging:

I think, playing Defense, bothe 6-Q-Q-Q and 9-Q-Q-Q will peg better than 6-9-9-Q.

Summary:

Both 6-Q-Q-Q and 9-Q-Q-Q have a better starting value than 6-9-9-Q and they all have 10 cuts for improvement and 5 cuts for 12pts. I prefer to throw 6-9D rather than 9-9 so I'll keep 9S-Q-Q-Q.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:16 PM
At 73*-84 playing a Defense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W3 %____W4 %
6-Q-Q-Q____6.87+(-2.11)+5.04=9.80____12.9____30.3
9S-Q-Q-Q___6.87+(-2.20)+5.06=9.73____12.7____30.9
6-9-9-Q____6.87+(-2.00)+4.31=9.18____11.3____27.3

Defense______L3 %____L4 %
6-Q-Q-Q_______38.2____60.0
9S-Q-Q-Q______37.8____59.4
6-9-9-Q_______40.8____64.0

There is very little difference between 6-Q-Q-Q and 9-Q-Q-Q but 6-Q-Q-Q is 0.07pt best for expected averages but 9-Q-Q-Q is very slightly best for Win %s and slightly lowest for Loss %s. As we're at a critical board position I'll decide based on the Win/Loss %s and select 6-9D to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense).
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 10:05 PM
RAS will opt for the 9-9 discard as the 6-Q ("sweet 16") closes the count at 31-2 anytime opponent plays cards that total 15 points. HalscribCLX shows the edge favoring 9-9 discard is less than .1 of a point. Even so will play for that small added value. With opponent at hole 84, its. def., def. and a shift to optimal pegging strategy once seeing the seemingly unhelpful starter card.