September 12, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by James500
73*-84  ?
34%
23%
22%
7%
5%
3%
2%
0%
0%
Total votes: 194
dec
5009 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Saturday 3:10 AM
I went for the nickel cut in the main hand. Thought I could play off more safely on their lead. I think its more about what they get here. dec
james500
2619 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Saturday 4:00 AM
I think the mystery three cards are more likely to contribute to a scoring combo if my discard comprises two different ranks rather than a pair.
Mark6
96 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Saturday 4:22 AM
Keeping the Ladies
Rosemarie44
1681 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Saturday 4:28 AM
Keeping the 3 Queens (sweet sixteen). The pair of nines are slightly higher in value (5.21 v. 5.11) than 6-9 to our crib.
JQT
2957 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Saturday 4:30 AM
We still retain a positional advantage in this game if we can maintain pace with our Opponent.

This is because we are the Current Dealer and we sit Three Holes into the Third Street Critical Position Zone of Hole 70; meanwhile, our Opponent is Non-Dealer and lies slightly greater than Ten Holes away from the Fourth Street Zone of Hole 96.

The cards we dealt ourselves are rather ordinary, which makes this a typical Cribbage Hand! We could hold PAIRS Royal and Toss (6 9), or we could retain (6 9 9 Q) and Toss (Q Q). I would not consider Toss (9 9) as being quite as good as Toss (6 9), and so I will concentrate on the other more viable discards.

Either choice could work well, and although Toss (6 9) is an "Also Ran" Dealer Discard according to the RAS "Star Power" formula, I am inclined to believe it is better than Toss (Q Q) today.

Thus, it's Keep (9 Q Q Q) and Toss (6 9).
Gougie00
4400 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Saturday 6:29 AM
Which combination has the biggest payoff? The combination of 6s and 9s usually gets no help in the crib. QQ may get some help. Anyway, that's the way I'll play it
glmccuskey
3230 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Saturday 7:35 AM
I like 6-9 to the crib vs either 9-9 or Q-Q.
Jazzselke
1583 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Saturday 8:11 AM
"Two triangles". I'm with Gary et al.
wasa
1730 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Saturday 9:47 AM
I might have blinders on, but other than 5-5, I prefer not to toss pairs to my crib. Don't want the Q-Q in my crib as opponent not likely to toss me a 5 (or 2-3 or A-4) and also less likely to toss me a J.
joekayak
1182 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Saturday 12:53 PM
8 points either way. See ras comment. 6-9 far more likely to get crib help.
Coeurdelion
4322 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Saturday 3:59 PM
I think the discard choice is between Q-Q, 6-9 or 9-9:

6-9-9-Q: 6pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.79) = 10¾pts

9-Q-Q-Q: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 11¼pts

6-Q-Q-Q: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.16) = 11¼pts

Potential:

6-9-9-Q: Improves with 5555, 666, 99, Q = 10 cuts = 10/46 = 21.7% up to 12pts with 666, 99 = 5 cuts.

9-Q-Q-Q: Improves with 5555, 666, 99, Q = 10 cuts = 10/46 = 21.7% up to 12pts with 5555, Q = 5 cuts.

6-Q-Q-Q: Improves with 5555, 666, 99, Q = 10 cuts = 21.7% up to 12pts with 5555, Q = 5 cuts.

Position:

We're 3pts past 2nd street positional hole and Pone is 2pts short of where they would like to be so I'll play Defense:

Pegging:

I think, playing Defense, bothe 6-Q-Q-Q and 9-Q-Q-Q will peg better than 6-9-9-Q.

Summary:

Both 6-Q-Q-Q and 9-Q-Q-Q have a better starting value than 6-9-9-Q and they all have 10 cuts for improvement and 5 cuts for 12pts. I prefer to throw 6-9D rather than 9-9 so I'll keep 9S-Q-Q-Q.
HalscribCLX
4085 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Saturday 4:16 PM
At 73*-84 playing a Defense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W3 %____W4 %
6-Q-Q-Q____6.87+(-2.11)+5.04=9.80____12.9____30.3
9S-Q-Q-Q___6.87+(-2.20)+5.06=9.73____12.7____30.9
6-9-9-Q____6.87+(-2.00)+4.31=9.18____11.3____27.3

Defense______L3 %____L4 %
6-Q-Q-Q_______38.2____60.0
9S-Q-Q-Q______37.8____59.4
6-9-9-Q_______40.8____64.0

There is very little difference between 6-Q-Q-Q and 9-Q-Q-Q but 6-Q-Q-Q is 0.07pt best for expected averages but 9-Q-Q-Q is very slightly best for Win %s and slightly lowest for Loss %s. As we're at a critical board position I'll decide based on the Win/Loss %s and select 6-9D to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense).
Ras2829
3858 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Saturday 10:05 PM
RAS will opt for the 9-9 discard as the 6-Q ("sweet 16") closes the count at 31-2 anytime opponent plays cards that total 15 points. HalscribCLX shows the edge favoring 9-9 discard is less than .1 of a point. Even so will play for that small added value. With opponent at hole 84, its. def., def. and a shift to optimal pegging strategy once seeing the seemingly unhelpful starter card.