Monday 3:16 AM

We have many choices

678T and toss 55 should be discounted because of bad pegging

5678 and toss 5t is quite appealing for hand and crib and pegging and may turn out better.


556T and toss 78 looks a bit odd but benefits from many cuts

I have chosen this hand because I think it might out peg 5678. E.g. x555-go-6 x-7-x and we outpeg 10-3

Monday 3:17 AM

I think the most valuable way to split these is to hold a five point hand, plus the average value of a crib with 5-5-?-?-? in it. There are a few alternative options though.

Monday 4:30 AM

A five in the hand and a five in our crib.

Monday 4:54 AM

Breaking the Double Run for better Crib

Monday 5:22 AM

Suited 5-10 to the crib. I wonder if 55 is the better toss?

Monday 5:23 AM

This is a close one. Putting either 5s and the 10 into the crib averages 19.41 points. Whilst putting in the 8 & 10 averages 19.37. Coming in a close third, at 18.99. is putting the 7 & 8 into our crib.

The Showcard of 5 is probably not the best for the first pick.

Monday 5:24 AM

5678 improves on any cut, suited 510 to the crib. Ras has talked about this hand previously. Hopefully we can keep opponent shy of Hole 96.

Monday 5:51 AM

A more measured way to play these hands. Might still find a way to get into the 90s but more paramount is try to play defense on opponent. dec

Monday 5:54 AM

After that cut and my opponent at 84 it’s defense, defense, defense.

Monday 6:10 AM

Suited 5 10 to my crib. I thought of keeping the double run but a quick look at the discard tables dissuaded me.

Monday 6:19 AM

Tossing 5-5 to my own crib is not much of a sacrifice in this situation. This would be an ideal time for my opponent to have tossed 10-K!

Monday 6:25 AM

Looked at the double run, but I thought the pegging has more options this way. The 8-T did not look beneficial so I chose Th-5h. Good pegging may get me as far as hole 94-95.

Monday 6:30 AM

Double nickel to the crib.

Monday 6:35 AM

While Toss (5 5) or even Toss (7 8) might do well in certain positions, let's spread the love around with Toss (5 T) today.

And while Toss (8 T) is simply not my "style of play," it would be difficult to criticize it too harshly here. I just don't like 'contaminating' my Crib!

Monday 6:37 AM

I'm well behind. Going for the double run.

Monday 7:04 AM

I'd usually toss 5-5 since my hand has the possibility of becoming a dozen. Today, there are too many cuts that don't help my hand, so I'll toss a suited 5-face, and keep a 5 in my hand.

Monday 7:12 AM

Intellectually, I wanted to toss 5-T to my crib. Emotionally, I wanted to toss 5-5 to my crib. Behind by 12 on third street I need to catch up and pass my opponent. So, playing with my heart not my head today. Nice cut! Hope at least one face card in my crib.

Monday 7:43 AM

on September 11 , Ras posted an informative comment about discarding the 5-10 verse 1-4 with respect to retaining a flush or not . Different hand here ..but the 5-10 may still be the correct discard ....waiting to see Ras , Coeurdelion and Hal comments

Monday 10:15 AM

From this hand or similar, discarding 5-X to own crib is the correct choice and gives the greater combined value (potential pegs, hand and crib scores). Don't do it this way if the crib is on the other side of the board! With opponent at 84, have chosen a defense strategy as would like them to deal shot of 4th street CPZ (95-99). After the starter card dealer knows has a guaranteed peg, 12 points in hand, and a known six points in crib. That puts dealer of this hand at hole 91. Play it safe on the pegs, play the 6 on a X-point lead, make the count 11 on a 3-4 lead. If not choosing defense pegging strategy, would have chosen optimal (Coeurdelion refers to that as cautious offense).

Monday 11:18 AM

Going for the 14 point crib.

Monday 3:47 PM

Several possibilities here. 5-6-7-8 (5H-10), 5-5-6-10 (7-8), 6-7-8-10 (5-5) and 5-5-6-7 (8-10):

5-6-7-8: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 12½pts

5-5-6-10: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 12½pts

6-7-8-10: 5pts + 8¾pts (Schell: 8.79) = 13¾pts

5-5-6-7: 8pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.80) = 11¾pts

Potential:

5-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/10/12/14pts with 2222, 4444, 55, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 23 cuts.

5-5-6-10: Improves with 4444, 55, 666, 777, 9999 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 10/12/14/16pts with 4444, 55, 777 + 15xXs = 24 cuts.

6-7-8-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 55, 666, 777, 888, 9999, 101010 = 26 cuts = 56.5% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 55, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 15 cuts.

5-5-6-7: Improves with 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 91.3% up to 12/14/16/17pts with 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 777, 888 + 15xXs = 34 cuts.

Position:

We're 2pts past 3rd street positional hole and Pone is 2pts short of where they would like to be. So I'll play defensively.

Pegging:

These hands are not ideal for playing Defense. Perhaps 6-7-8-10 will peg best.

Summary:

6-7-8-10 has the best starting value by 1¼pts and 2pts over 5-5-6-7. However 5-5-6-7 has the 42 cuts for improvement and 34 cuts for 12-17pts. 5-6-7-8 has guaranteed improvement and 23 cuts for 9-14pts. Does 6-7-8-10 with 26 cuts for improvement and 15 cuts for 8-12pts fend off the competition? I think as it may peg best defensively it will so I'll throw the 5-5. Lets hope Pone throws 5-J and the right 5 gets cut!

Monday 3:54 PM

At 72*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
5C-6-7-8___9.57+(-2.13)+6.51=13.95____26.8____39.0
5-5-6-7___12.22+(-1.96)+3.53=13.79____26.9____40.4
6-7-8-10___7.20+(-2.11)+8.58=13.67____24.4____36.5
5-5-6-10___9.35+(-2.15)+6.38=13.58____26.3____37.6

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
5C-6-7-8_______44.3____49.1
5-5-6-7________42.3____47.3
6-7-8-10_______44.0____52.0
5-5-6-10_______43.1____50.3

5C-6-7-8 is best for expected averages by 0.16pt over 5-5-6-7. However 5-5-6-7 is very slightly best for Win %s and appreciably lowest for Loss %s. We are in the third street Critical Position Zone so I'll place most weight on the Win/Loss %s and select 8-10 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.