September 16, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by SallyAnn3
103*-108  ?
41%
32%
13%
9%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 225
james500
2619 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 3:10 AM
A few options to mull over, I'll try the flush.
Plenty of helpful cuts, and I should be able to keep away during the pegging.
Rosemarie44
1681 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 3:39 AM
Believe it is best to hold the Flush today. Hand starts with 8 vs 7 points (4-5-6-Q). Best expected averages and higher crib toss. Hand also has more cuts for improvement (9 cuts gives hand 12 points (AAA, TTT, QQQ).
RubyTuesday
535 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Wednesday 3:44 AM
Flush! I wanted to discard A Q but after looking at the discard tables decided not to, it’ll be interesting to see what everyone thinks later on in the day.
mrob2199
439 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 3:51 AM
Interesting puzzle today Sally-I like the 456 together for pegging purposes-as pone only needs 13 with his first count -the Q hold is a bit better just in case pone leads an 8-with the ace cut we have a 9 point hand and at least 2 in the crib-try to get a read on the opponent to decide on your pegging strategy-I would suggest cautious offense as my first tactic-I would take the 15 with a picture lead from the pone-hopefully he will have 4 of them so we can get the 31 as well
glmccuskey
3230 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Wednesday 5:19 AM
I’ll be pegging defensively as I don’t want my opponent getting close enough to peg out as dealer next hand. I also like A-6 vs A-10 in the crib.
thelawnet
257 votes

Joined: January 2020

   
Wednesday 5:43 AM
18 is not really likely here so maximise points to go out next deal, including the best 'worst case', which the flush usually is.

After the cut we are on 117 or more. But aggressive pegging won't help us. For example if pone has 44x and leads the 4, then pairing it will help pone much more than it helps us.

So peg defensively here
mfetchCT425
639 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 5:49 AM
Nice puzzle Sally. I usually like keeping 4-5-6 together, but will go with the flush today. Like the spacing of cards here for defensive pegging and like A-6 in my crib a bit more than A-10 or A-Q. 10-J-Q cuts work nicer with this hold too.
Gougie00
4400 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 5:51 AM
I didnt want to break up the 456. The opponent is 13 away and probably doesnt have enough. With the Ace cut, the lead that would scare me would be a 3 or 2 lead. If the lead is a face, I'll hammer it.
Mark6
96 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Wednesday 6:11 AM
JQT
2957 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Wednesday 6:17 AM
It's very tempting to Keep (A 4 T Q) and Toss (5 6) here, as it might peg more defensively, and that's a powerful Crib.

But the FLUSH can usually peg deceptively, and that's often as good or better, and meanwhile we hold a stronger hand.
Jazzselke
1583 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Wednesday 7:05 AM
Great puzzle Sally, prefer this hand for the pegging flexibility,but would not argue with those keeping the flush. Without the flush would consider holding A410Q as mentioned by JQT. Would be more prone to do so if the face cards were 10J or JQ.
SallyAnn3
150 votes

Joined: March 2020

Wednesday 8:20 AM
Thanks all :) I kept the flush,along the thoughts of Gary and Mike. I went back and forth with the thoughts of Rob and Dan. I usually think: what would my mentors do? In this case, everyone was right as the cut was a 6 of hearts! I held him back in pegging, and won the game as he only had the pair so 6's in his crib, which slowed him down.
cwed
1139 votes

Joined: October 2014

   
Wednesday 8:21 AM
Good puzzle, SallyAnn! I don't like the flush here, as 4-5-6-X is more defensive, should I have to play defense on the pone's lead. After voting and after seeing Rob's comment, I see that I should've held the Q instead of the 10.
Andy (muesli64)
1815 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Wednesday 10:10 AM
I prefer A-10. Though it seems keeping the flush scores a point and a half better. So which hand pegs better?
Ras2829
3858 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 10:51 AM
With opponent needing 13 with first count, am thinking def. when looking at peg placement, thinking def., when looking at the six cards, and thinking def. after seeing the starter card. Once seeing the up-card dealer knows that has minimum of 15 points (guaranteed peg, 12 points in hand, and a known two in crib). What are chances that n/d will count out? That's 1 of 5. Crib averages are abysmal for dealer. The A-6 average of 3.977 is knocking on the door of 4.0. The A-10 sits at 3.509. The A-Q is slightly lower at 3.504. When discarding to self, 47/91 discard combinations average less than 4.0. When discarding to opponent, 2/91 averages less than 4.0. If you were just considering pegging value the A-4-5-6 has the edge. The flush rules because the potential hand score is a full point more than other choices and the A-6 does better in the box. Choosing a defense pegging or optimal pegging strategy, the flush does not do as well as several other choices in the pegging. Knowing we are at hole 118 with a single peg, take reasonably safe pegs. If pairing, don't leave room for n/d to score a triple. Glad to see a new name in the puzzle submission column. Good job, SallyAnn.
dec
5009 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 12:39 PM
Better read that opening lead on the hand and guess the probabilities for them for points with my best guess response. Tomorrow maybe keep the run. Defense. dec
cribbagepogo
3002 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 2:07 PM
Everyone seems to favor Q in the hand. To me more likely pone will throw one into crib. Who knows?
Coeurdelion
4322 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 3:58 PM
I think there's four likely hands - 4-5-10-Q (A-6), A-4-5-6 (10-Q), 4-5-6-X (A-X) and A-4-10-Q (5-6):

4-5-10-Q: 8pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.85) = 11¾pts

A-4-5-6: 5pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.31) = 8½pts

4-5-6-X: 7pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.42) = 10½pts

A-4-10-Q: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 10½pts

Potential:

4-5-10-Q: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 11/12/13/14pts with AAA, 3333, 555, 666, 101010, JJJJ, QQQ = 23 cuts.

A-4-5-6: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 91.3% up to 8/9/12/14pts with 3333, 444, 555, 666, 9999 + 14xXs = 31 cuts.

4-5-6-X: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, XXX = 12 cuts.

A-4-10-Q: Improves with AAA, 444, 555 + 14xXs = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/10pts with AAA, 444, 555, 101010, JJJJ, QQQ = 19 cuts.

Position:

Pone needs 13pts and we need 18pts. I think we must playD Defense and hope to score out this deal or peg out as Pone next deal.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg quite well but playing Defense I think perhaps A-4-5-6 will peg best.

Summary:

The flush has the best starting value by 1¼pts over A-4-10-Q and 4-5-6-X and although A-4-5-6 has the most cuts for improvement and 31 cuts for 8-14pts the flush has 30 cuts for improvement and 23 cuts for 11-14pts. 4-5-6-X has the best maximum at 16pts but only 12 cuts for 11-16pts so I'll throw A-6.
HalscribCLX
4085 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 4:00 PM
At 103*-108 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Net
Optimal___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W1 %____W2 %
4-5-10-Q___10.70+0.59+3.79=15.08____34.8____63.9
4-5-6-Q_____9.72+1.52+3.14=14.38____27.0____61.4
4-5-6-10____9.72+1.50+3.11=14.32____26.8____60.0
A-4-5-6_____8.85+1.63+3.17=13.65____22.6____45.8
A-4-10-Q____6.17+0.39+6.41=12.97____19.4____62.3

Optimal_______L1 %____L2 %
4-5-10-Q_______27.1____25.0
4-5-6-Q________26.0____29.4
4-5-6-10_______27.0____30.7
A-4-5-6________37.4____45.7
A-4-10-Q_______28.4____46.2

4-5-10-Q is best for expected averages by 0.70pt over 4-5-6-Q and is significantly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s so I'll select A-6 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Defense to the lead.