Tuesday 3:11 AM

Nice Cut for those discarding 6s

   

Tuesday 3:16 AM

3-6 with a second 3 and 6 out of circulation should be fairly innocuous, (I hope).

3-2-6 eleven and fake diamond flush.

Only the cut of an 8 is unhelpful.

   

Tuesday 3:16 AM

I will be one of them today .Only three ranking of cuts probably do me right here A 4 Face cards. Hope the pegging goes fairly even here at least. Three lead. dec

   

Tuesday 4:05 AM

I think with dealer at 71 we need to play conservative even if that means we are in the short end of 3rd street CPZ rather then deeper into it after this hand.

   

Tuesday 4:17 AM

I have the same reasoning as mark6 in choosing 2-2 to opponent's crib (safer). Play our position first we need 7 points.
Good puzzle James500.

   

Tuesday 4:33 AM

The chances of getting a 10 J Q or K are too high. Start with a 3.

   

Tuesday 5:29 AM

Another pregnant 3s problem. I like the 2233 together just incase an Ace or 4 is cut. 16 faces also help. Anything but a 6.

Lead a 3. Engage with the pegging, no choice.

   

Tuesday 6:02 AM

So much potential with this hand for 12 or 16, so I think it’s worth the risk, especially at this position. Will lead the 3d.

   

Tuesday 6:18 AM

I’m with those of you who threw 6 6.

   

Tuesday 6:37 AM

I've wondered about this hand many times and in different positions. But I believe the potential of the 2233 is too hard to overlook.

   

Tuesday 7:05 AM

We could Toss (6 6), or Toss (2 2), or pick some hybrid solution and either Toss (3 6) or Toss (2 6).

I'll go with Toss (2 2) today, since it should have significant Negative Delta as we hold half of the Treys.

After the Queen Cut, I'll lead a Trey.

   

Tuesday 7:08 AM

Keeping the sure 8. I understand statistically this will stay at 8 points as only a 3, 6, or 9 helps.

   

Tuesday 7:12 AM

The max hand is too tempting.

   

Tuesday 8:15 AM

Held the sure 8, vs the possible 12 with a likely face card. That's always the time I get a worthless cut lol. Negative delta of having 2 of the troublesome 3's is what convinced me.

   

Tuesday 10:37 AM

With the crowd here, to me, the biggest reason to toss 2-2 is having two threes in my hand already. Curious what the discard average becomes in that spot specifically.

   

Tuesday 2:53 PM

Gambled on an X cut. Also A or 4 could help.

   

Tuesday 6:01 PM

I think it's a direct choice between 3-3-6-6 (2-2) and 2-2-3-3 (6-6):

3-3-6-6: 8pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.38) = +1½pts

2-2-3-3: 4pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 7.08) = -2¾pts

Potential:

3-3-6-6: Improves with 33, 66, 9999 = 8 cuts = 9/46 = 19.6% up to 14/18/20pts with all cuts.

2-2-3-3: Improves with AAAA, 22, 33, 4444, 5555, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 44 cuts = 44/46 = 95.7% up to 8/12/16pts with AAAA, 22, 33, 4444, 7777, 8888 + 16xXs = 36 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is 1pt past positional hole while we're well behind but if we can get well past 3rd street positional hole this deal we can still be in a reasonable position.

Pegging:

I think 2-2-3-3 will peg better than 3-3-6-6 playing Offense which I think we must play in this position.

Summary:

3-3-6-6 is better for expected averages by 4¼pts and has the higher maximum but 2-2-3-3 has many more cuts for improvement and 36 cuts for 8-16pts. Will this make up the 4¼pts? I think as 2-2-3-3 has 36 cuts for 8-16pts and that it will peg better so I'll throw the 6-6.

   

Tuesday 6:20 PM

At 63-71* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W4 %____W5 %
2-2-3-3____10.26+2.78+(-6.56)=6.48____35.0____30.2
3-3-6-6_____9.48+0.93+(-5.61)=4.80____25.4____29.2
2-2-3-6*____6.17+2.04+(-4.02)=4.19____39.1____36.3
2-3-3-6*____6.26+2.04+(-4.31)=3.99____39.5____36.3

Offense______L4 %____L5 %
2-2-3-3_______59.2____57.3
3-3-6-6_______53.3____59.2
2-2-3-6*______49.1____48.1
2-3-3-6*______49.4____48.1

2-2-3-3 is best for expected averages by 1.68pts over 3-3-6-6 but both 2-2-3-6 and 2-3-3-6 are both better for Win %s and Loss %s. In this critical board position I would choose based on Win/Loss %s but as we are only half way through the game and the difference in expected averages is so large I'll select 6-6 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll lead a 2 and play Defense:

Lead____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
2_____________________(-2.39)
3_____________________(-2.43)