October 13, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
116*-88  ?
41%
27%
17%
6%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 214
scottcribWhat's going to help me peg out in order to get the skunk?
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:06 AM
Eleven count and I would play off with a six with a face card lead. dec
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:10 AM
J-5 from me. 9-2 eleven and Q-6 sixteen might score a few pegs, not five of them though.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:28 AM
Let's shoot for both the (15-2) and the (31-2) with our 5 Card and 6 Card, respectively, and then try to use our second two-card "Magic Eleven" cards (2 9) to score another (31-2), and attempt to get the SKUNK!
JQT says: Hole 90 is the most valuable Real Estate on the Cribbage Board. We can allow Pone to peg Two Points and get to Hole 90, and *still* secure a SKUNK, as long as we can peg Five Holes. Pegging Average for the Dealer is 3.5 Holes, and thus if a Jack is Cut (which shall occur around 6.5% of the time, as we were already dealt one Jack), we ought to make it! Without a Jack Cut, we *still* have an extremely good chance of pegging out, I'd estimate perhaps 10% to 15%, and if it's an important game, SKUNKS often are equal to TWO wins, or in a money game, the winning amount is frequently DOUBLED. And these are fairly good cards that can often deliver us those points needed. Pone is virtually FORCED to retain his or her best hand in order to attempt to reduce "Spread Points," and that will often be (5 X X X) or (X X X X), and so we should get the SKUNK quite easily if these cards are held. All we need is any two of either: a PAIR, a (15-2), a (31-2), as well as a "go" or Last Card.
duke62 says: At GR last night I was dealing from 34 out and opponent who was 19 out. He kept 5QQQ and tossed 6-7 going for the skunk. The 7 that was cut gave me a 21 crib and I won the game. Much riskier from further out and as pone, but the risk is always real, even if slight.
JQT says: It's a matter of the degree of risk: Your scenario seems reasonable, as the Dealer will *routinely* score about a whole street during a game of Cribbage, perhaps once every few games. In fact, I have often stated on these pages that any time you are the Dealer in Cribbage and "near the corner" between Third Street and Fourth Street, you have a chance of winning. But even if you TRIED to lose as the Dealer from (116*-88), I contend that you'd be hard-pressed to do so in at least the first thousand attempts, and the odds may actually be an order of magnitude higher than this. Your point is well taken from the score you've given, but the two scenarios are drastically different in risk-to-reward ratio, and are so by several orders of magnitude, in my estimation.
duke62 says: Exactly!
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:47 AM
Kept the peggers - two magic elevens.
Rosemarie44 says: Comments and pictures don't match. I changed my selection and it kept my original toss to crib.
Rosemarie44 says: Comments and pictures don't match. I changed my selection and it kept my original toss to crib.
scottcrib
1636 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:18 AM
I think it's going to be tough to peg 5 points without either a J cut or a run.
zeke76 says: Agreed. It’s very unlikely.
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:04 AM
I kissed goodbye the skunk. 5 holes is too much to peg.
Mark6
702 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:42 AM
Not likely but going for the skunk
cribbagepogo
3251 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:34 AM
I want pegging cards. Take all I can get and take a chance.
warquaker
238 votes

Joined: July 2020
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:15 AM
Much puzzled by today's puzzle. We can't lose this can we? What lesson is being taught? Time to read the other comments.
warquaker says: Ah yes. The skunk. I need to spend sometime analysing the problem before I make my pick.
JQT says: Yes, it's well worth trying to peg out, in my opinion, and even if we don't secure that SKUNK, if we can indeed peg out, we stand to gain the average Pone Hand in Spread Points, which is about Eight Holes, and in any form of competitive Cribbage play, those Eight Points, and perhaps even a SKUNK, are worth fighting for, especially with Pone at Hole 88 having less than maybe a tenth of 1% chance of winning! When the possibility of a SKUNK arises, and appears to 'cost' us virtually zero risk whatsoever, why not summon all of our strength and avail ourselves of it?!
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 9:39 AM
Frankly would not be overly concerned with getting the skunk unless playing for $5/$10 , $50/$100, or needing that one extra point to qualify in an ACC sanctioned tournament. Dealer pegs 5 less than 20% of the time although these cards offer a better chance to do so than many. You might note how the pegging could unfold to follow, and the best cards to do that are 2-5-6-9. The 2-5 have high pegging value and the 6-9 have moderate pegging value. In addition, these cards contain two "magic 11's" (5-6 and 2-9). Also one of those nifty "sweet 16's" (2-5-9) is staring dealer in the face. Needing five pegs for the skunk, dealer has got to grab the first two, needs to make both "eleven's from heaven" work. If a Q or K lead, play the 9 in first pegging series, if 10/J, play the deuce. Hold the 5-6 for the second pegging round.
Ras2829 says: The other reason for keeping the 5-6 for the second round is non-dealer might have hung on to a four spot or a 7, not being able to drop them in the opening pegging sequence.
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Tuesday 9:40 AM
I was taught to get the win first, not the skunk--unless in a big money tourney, I'm going this way
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Tuesday 10:35 AM
If pone starts off with a A, 2, 3, 4, 7 or an 8 then I'm following up with Q. Anything else I'll get a 15 for 2.
usacoder says: The win is guaranteed so I have to go for the Skunking.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 1:16 PM
To gain the skunk we need to peg 5pts before Pone pegs 3pts. I think probably 2-5-6-9 will be the best pegging hand with 2 magic elevens and the lower cards. So I'll throw J-Q.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 2:27 PM
At 115*-88 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the Win %s and chances of Skunking opponent are:

Defense______Win %________Skunk %
2-5-6-9______99.6__________13.5
2-5-6-Q______99.3__________11.2
2-5-6-J______99.1__________11.0
2-5-9-J______99.2__________10.8
2-5-9-Q______99.0___________9.1
2-6-9-Q_____100.0___________8.2
2-6-9-J_____100.0___________8.0
2-5-J-Q_____100.0___________7.7
5-6-9-J_____100.0___________7.6
5-6-9-Q_____100.0___________7.1
5-6-J-Q_____100.0___________5.5
5-9-J-Q_____100.0___________5.1
2-9-J-Q______99.0___________3.9
6-9-J-Q_____100.0___________3.5
2-6-J-Q______97.7___________1.6

The choice depends on how much we need the skunk. Several hands will be certain of a win ( to within 1 in 2000) but the best of these to score the skunk is 2-6-9-Q with 5-J to the crib. However if we need the skunk the best chance of achieving this is 2-5-6-9. If playing for double stakes for the skunk I'll select J-Q to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.
Ras2829 says: Ah yes and dealer needs five pegs to get the skunk while limiting n/d to no more than 2 pegs. Note the cribbot computes that chances for dealer to get a skunk is 1 in 7.5. Don't count on five pegs anywhere if dealing - best to concentrate on the win in most all aspects.
Ras2829 says: And the 2-5-6-9, the best of these peggers only meets that marginal pegging performance. Eleven of the possible combinations among these six cards don't even reach 10% as to the skunk win.
GNXXXVI
127 votes

Joined: August 2020
 
 
 
Tuesday 11:44 PM
yup
scottcrib
1636 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:22 AM