October 15, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by JQT
115-118*  ?
40%
16%
13%
13%
7%
5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 218
JQTBring it on Home ... Pone!
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 3:26 AM
I wanted to keep the fours; dealer will be holding low cards if possible so didn't want to hold onto a King in case he/she has a five card; will a sweet sixteen help us? (4d, 4h, 8d).
mrob2199
1429 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 3:47 AM
Nice puzzle JQT-I think it’s pretty clear we want the 3 fours in our hand but which other card to keep with it?i think we can first eliminate the 3-dealer will be looking to peg out so he might try to entice us into a run on our 4 lead-the 3 doesn’t provide much cover there-so the 8 or the K? I think our fours will be safe but our other card could be vulnerable to a 15 or match on the second series-the king will yield points to the 5,but a king match is probably the least likely in this scenario-meanwhile our 8 could yield the game winning points to an 8 or 7
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Thursday 3:48 AM
Dealer probably can't pair a 4 card, so I should be able to play all three in relative safety.
Should they play something close to my 4 in an attempt to entice a run, I'll need a card to escape with. Either the 8 or K will do, but I'll try the 8 as it makes a 16 combo, as highlighted by Rosemarie, should Dealer's initial response be a 5.
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 4:00 AM
Got to keep the trips. The King seems better for a go. Eight being paired and allowing a possible run by keeping seems better odds. Lead the four of hearts a slight bluff. dec
glmccuskey
4095 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Thursday 4:28 AM
What Rob said.
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 4:47 AM
Actually this is the type of hand down her that gives n/d a chance to win. Leading from a small triple down here minimizes dealer chance to peg on the opening card. Lead the 4H. If dealer does pair the lead, n/d chalks up a win without counting the hand. The King is the best of the escape cards as well. Hang onto it as long as possible. If dealer plays on the four with an adjacent card, play the King. If dealer does not play close to the four, dump another four if puts the count over 15. RAS is playing SAFE, am not even thinking of scoring pegs. Peg avoidance is #1 priority.
Ras2829 says: Of course if dealer responded with a 7 on my lead, would take the 15-2 since the four was safe the first time. Might even drop the third four next card played if that looked reasonably safe. Then would be holding the King. Got to watch the flow to see what the direction seems to be although very hard to predict in end-game pegging.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 4:50 AM
Need 6 points and need a safe lead and need the best play off card. Eureka.
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Thursday 4:55 AM
Keeping it low. Starting things off with one of the 4s, to try for a peg win.
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 5:40 AM
Interesting puzzle. I'll keep the 6 points this way with the 8 as the escape card. Lead the 4 and try to survive.
Eolus619
1336 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Thursday 5:51 AM
Leave it to the clever mind of JQT to submit a puzzle which is the cribbage equivalent of the damsel in distress tied to the RR track. I yield to Rob & Ras ,to two of the better minds we have in our game for insightful explanations. I did realize all three of Ras’s decision points are defense and Peg prevention for Pone. I also realized I needed I to keep all the fours. The magic eleven didn’t seem valuable to me with this hand and board position.
Eolus619 says: and the best reason , now that i really think about it , is the n/d needs three cards that add up to 11 not just two ......geeez
Mark6
702 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Thursday 5:52 AM
4s unlikely to be Paired , K to escape from Run , all Defense
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 6:01 AM
King seems safer than the eight so there we go.
cwed
1355 votes

Joined: October 2014
 
 
 
Thursday 6:49 AM
I sure hope the dealer has the case 4!
SallyAnn3
904 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Thursday 7:28 AM
I have my points to go out with, and tossed the 3 to stay out of runs. Probably better to keep the king instead of the 8, but I was only thinking of the 4's and 3 and ignored the king
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 8:41 AM
The only right decision I made was to keep the 4's. By keeping the 3, I did not give myself an escape card.

It is too early in the AM to make important choices like this.
cwed says: JRCeagle78: tournament playoffs typically start at 7:30 on Sunday morning, so you have to be at the top of your game the minute you wake up! ;-)
warquaker says: @JRCeagle78 it is as if you read my mind and expressed my very thoughts.
warquaker says: @JRCeagle78: it turns out that we both stumbled upon the right hand even though we were convinced by the arguments of those that posted.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 10:30 AM
commenting panelists overwhelmingly favor K-4-4-4 but that choice is only made by 15% of the whole panel. What Rob and Ras said.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 10:59 AM
We want to DEFEND as best we can (unless a Jack is Cut; then, all I can say is try to lose by as few points as possible ... maybe lead the King, and hope Dealer has four 9 Cards LOL).

Assuming no Jack Cut: I think Keep (4 4 4 K) is superior to Keep (4 4 4 8) because once we lead a 4 Card, the Dealer may then play a 6 Card, and with the latter hand of 4-4-4-8, we are possibly 'jammed up' immediately.

I enjoyed reading all of the ideas posted today.
JQT says: Well, after that 9 Card Cut, Dealer is very unlikely to have four 9 Cards - but the Dealer could have (9 T T J) or any variation of (9 X X X). I'd still lead the 4 Card, but I suppose some ambitious soul who wants to attempt to peg out could try leading the King! Just hearing the Dealer utter, "See One; Play One" and dropping a 9 Card Reply to a King Lead might be worth the chuckles!
Eolus619 says: Having re read the comments above and thought about them the reply to Pone lead is most likely the key to winning or losing the game.Seems the dealer reply should be a 7-X ,if at all possible , which is dependent on hand dealer was dealt. Dealer would not reply 2,3,5, or 6 unless forced to do so.The goal seems to me to be don’t get paired with a 4, try to get the count above 15 , and use up as many of Pones cards as can be done leaving dealer with just a go. Does that sound right to you?
JQT says: After we lead a 4 Card, the very BEST reply by Dealer could very well be a 6 Card. This means that if Dealer has either a Trey or a 7 Card, we would likely lose after either a 5 Card or perhaps even a 4 Card reply. And if we help 4-4-4-8, it would also mean that we would lose after an 8 Card Reply. Dealer will have no qualms about giving us Five Points if, in doing so, Dealer can immediately WIN the game! In endgame battles such as this, responding to a 4 Card Lead with a 6 Card is actually both an OFFENSIVE and DEFENSIVE response, as ONLY a 5 Card response can score more than Two Points (and yet we would still come up shy of winning). That is why, after a 4 Card Lead, if Dealer responds with a 6 Card or a Deuce (both *excellent* replies), we like having our King to Play Off and avoid a RUN that only gets us to Hole 120 at best, likely before then losing. Remember, the Dealer is not going to simply 'give us' an easy Five Holes UNLESS it helps him/her WIN; similarly, it also jeopardizes us if we play an 8 Card after such a 6 Card Reply. Since we are TWICES AS FAR AWAY from VICTORY as the Dealer, we should EXPECT the Dealer to "entice the play" in such a manner during the pegging; after all, the Dealer in this situation can afford to give up Five Holes if in doing so, just Three Holes can be gained and thus secure the VICTORY.
Eolus619 says: understand ..thx!
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Thursday 2:49 PM
We only need 6pts to get out but have to stop Dealer pegging 3pts. So I think it's between 3-4-4-4 (8-K) and 3-4-4-8 (4-K). I think the best Defensive hand will be 3-4-4-4 although it doesn't have an out card. Even so I'll throw 8-K.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:05 PM
At 115-118* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Dealer Peg Out %s and Hold Enough %s are:

Offense________Dealer Peg Out %_______Hold Out %
3-4-4-4______________55.0_______________100.0
3-4-4-K______________75.5________________60.0
3-4-8-K______________76.2________________53.5
4-4-8-K______________76.6________________43.4
4-4-4-K______________78.4_______________100.0
3-4-4-8______________79.5_______________100.0
4-4-4-8______________83.8_______________100.0

3-4-4-4 is guaranteed to hold out and has the lowest chance of Dealer Pegging Out by a long way so I'll select 8-K to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll lead a 4 and play Defense:

Lead_________Dealer's Pegging Pts._______Win %
3___________________(-1.18)______________26.4
4___________________(-1.20)______________37.6

Although the 3 lead is very slightly lowest for Dealer's pegging the 4 lead is much higher for Win %s.
JQT says: I'm trying to figure out the program's logic here by taking an OFFENSIVE approach?! If we hold (3 4 4 4), and lead a 4 Card, and then if the Dealer responds with either a Deuce, a 5 Card, or a 6 Card, we are trapped! But four low-ranking cards could possibly keep the Count lower, and might avoid a (31-2) or a "go" - it's really difficult to see how the Trey helps us! It seems as though the program is already conceding that the Dealer shall probably peg out, and thus it's trying to peg SIX before the Dealer can peg THREE. I could understand this at (115-119*) but at Hole 118, I think we should play DEFENSE.
cwed says: JQT: Hal's Crib frequently gives contradictory info that is not very helpful. Notice, for example, how it says "playing an Offense strategy" but then turns around and immediately says "I'll . . . play Defense"? While the program may be based on a lot of statistical knowledge, it is only as good as the player who writes up the description.
duke62 says: There's something to be said for bunching your cards in tight or end-game scenarios. Same with your toss to opponent's crib. It results in fewer cards they can score with. But if they do score, they often score a lot. I think of it like the game Battleship. Do I spread my ships out or bunch them together.
GNXXXVI
127 votes

Joined: August 2020
 
 
 
Thursday 6:43 PM
Cannot remember the last time I picked the same as Hal's crib
RubyTuesday
909 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Friday 1:37 AM
My thinking was along the lines of Gougie”s.