October 15, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by JQT
115-118*  ?
40%
16%
13%
13%
7%
5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 218
JQTBring it on Home ... Pone!
Rosemarie44
1705 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 3:26 AM
I wanted to keep the fours; dealer will be holding low cards if possible so didn't want to hold onto a King in case he/she has a five card; will a sweet sixteen help us? (4d, 4h, 8d).
mrob2199
465 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Thursday 3:47 AM
Nice puzzle JQT-I think it’s pretty clear we want the 3 fours in our hand but which other card to keep with it?i think we can first eliminate the 3-dealer will be looking to peg out so he might try to entice us into a run on our 4 lead-the 3 doesn’t provide much cover there-so the 8 or the K? I think our fours will be safe but our other card could be vulnerable to a 15 or match on the second series-the king will yield points to the 5,but a king match is probably the least likely in this scenario-meanwhile our 8 could yield the game winning points to an 8 or 7
james500
2649 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Thursday 3:48 AM
Dealer probably can't pair a 4 card, so I should be able to play all three in relative safety.
Should they play something close to my 4 in an attempt to entice a run, I'll need a card to escape with. Either the 8 or K will do, but I'll try the 8 as it makes a 16 combo, as highlighted by Rosemarie, should Dealer's initial response be a 5.
dec
5039 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Thursday 4:00 AM
Got to keep the trips. The King seems better for a go. Eight being paired and allowing a possible run by keeping seems better odds. Lead the four of hearts a slight bluff. dec
glmccuskey
3252 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Thursday 4:28 AM
What Rob said.
Ras2829
3887 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Thursday 4:47 AM
Actually this is the type of hand down her that gives n/d a chance to win. Leading from a small triple down here minimizes dealer chance to peg on the opening card. Lead the 4H. If dealer does pair the lead, n/d chalks up a win without counting the hand. The King is the best of the escape cards as well. Hang onto it as long as possible. If dealer plays on the four with an adjacent card, play the King. If dealer does not play close to the four, dump another four if puts the count over 15. RAS is playing SAFE, am not even thinking of scoring pegs. Peg avoidance is #1 priority.
Andy (muesli64)
1835 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Thursday 4:50 AM
Need 6 points and need a safe lead and need the best play off card. Eureka.
usacoder
423 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Thursday 4:55 AM
Keeping it low. Starting things off with one of the 4s, to try for a peg win.
Gougie00
4425 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Thursday 5:40 AM
Interesting puzzle. I'll keep the 6 points this way with the 8 as the escape card. Lead the 4 and try to survive.
Eolus619
138 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Thursday 5:51 AM
Leave it to the clever mind of JQT to submit a puzzle which is the cribbage equivalent of the damsel in distress tied to the RR track. I yield to Rob & Ras ,to two of the better minds we have in our game for insightful explanations. I did realize all three of Ras’s decision points are defense and Peg prevention for Pone. I also realized I needed I to keep all the fours. The magic eleven didn’t seem valuable to me with this hand and board position.
Mark6
128 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Thursday 5:52 AM
4s unlikely to be Paired , K to escape from Run , all Defense
Jazzselke
1608 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Thursday 6:01 AM
King seems safer than the eight so there we go.
cwed
1158 votes

Joined: October 2014

   
Thursday 6:49 AM
I sure hope the dealer has the case 4!
SallyAnn3
173 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Thursday 7:28 AM
I have my points to go out with, and tossed the 3 to stay out of runs. Probably better to keep the king instead of the 8, but I was only thinking of the 4's and 3 and ignored the king
JRCeagle78
963 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Thursday 8:41 AM
The only right decision I made was to keep the 4's. By keeping the 3, I did not give myself an escape card.

It is too early in the AM to make important choices like this.
joekayak
1202 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Thursday 10:30 AM
commenting panelists overwhelmingly favor K-4-4-4 but that choice is only made by 15% of the whole panel. What Rob and Ras said.
JQT
2988 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Thursday 10:59 AM
We want to DEFEND as best we can (unless a Jack is Cut; then, all I can say is try to lose by as few points as possible ... maybe lead the King, and hope Dealer has four 9 Cards LOL).

Assuming no Jack Cut: I think Keep (4 4 4 K) is superior to Keep (4 4 4 8) because once we lead a 4 Card, the Dealer may then play a 6 Card, and with the latter hand of 4-4-4-8, we are possibly 'jammed up' immediately.

I enjoyed reading all of the ideas posted today.
Coeurdelion
4353 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Thursday 2:49 PM
We only need 6pts to get out but have to stop Dealer pegging 3pts. So I think it's between 3-4-4-4 (8-K) and 3-4-4-8 (4-K). I think the best Defensive hand will be 3-4-4-4 although it doesn't have an out card. Even so I'll throw 8-K.
HalscribCLX
4110 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 3:05 PM
At 115-118* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Dealer Peg Out %s and Hold Enough %s are:

Offense________Dealer Peg Out %_______Hold Out %
3-4-4-4______________55.0_______________100.0
3-4-4-K______________75.5________________60.0
3-4-8-K______________76.2________________53.5
4-4-8-K______________76.6________________43.4
4-4-4-K______________78.4_______________100.0
3-4-4-8______________79.5_______________100.0
4-4-4-8______________83.8_______________100.0

3-4-4-4 is guaranteed to hold out and has the lowest chance of Dealer Pegging Out by a long way so I'll select 8-K to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll lead a 4 and play Defense:

Lead_________Dealer's Pegging Pts._______Win %
3___________________(-1.18)______________26.4
4___________________(-1.20)______________37.6

Although the 3 lead is very slightly lowest for Dealer's pegging the 4 lead is much higher for Win %s.
GNXXXVI
30 votes

Joined: August 2020

   
Thursday 6:43 PM
Cannot remember the last time I picked the same as Hal's crib
RubyTuesday
556 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Friday 1:37 AM
My thinking was along the lines of Gougie”s.